Looking for my next Forex trade
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I stayed out of it. But, it does show that the system works...just drags it's feet sometimes.
EA is probably headed back to the highs Jav but I may take profits along the way as we go. Haven't decided just yet.
EA and AU moving now this evening a bit. Still waiting on EU but it's starting to climb as well.
That's what it did on GJ for 2 days before the 3rd day and they tanked it hard to run well above 100% ADR for the day. Happens a lot...a big move, a couple more swings after that, and then for about 2 days in there somewhere you get real low volume.
ADR has been low for 2 days on EU, low today for EA, and low today for AU.
The market will make up the difference in an exaggerated move either tomorrow or the next full trading day Monday.
These anemic ADR levels often show up when price is nearing a key turning point like we have setting up now on AU, EU, and EA.
Well, everything is still primed to move up on EU and EA and AU down. Just need some incentive to get the markets moving. Maybe the US news this morning will take care of that.
Another thing to keep in mind Jav is the correlation pairs behind EA. EU is about to move up in a 5th wave movement and AU is about to move down in a 5th wave movement. That's gonna work together to push EA up really hard.
Another 230 pips or so down on AU while EU moves up 320 pips or so to my targets means that EA can easily run 500 to 700 pips topside. The effect is compounded when the core pairs are moving opposite of each other.
For example, I show my AU trade to be up about 20 pips on profit but EA is up almost 50. And that's just AU moving. Once EU starts moving too, the effect will increase exponentially.
Yep, that's why I try to get as many views as I can on a particular pair.
We have to also keep in mind that EA could potentially make one more new high on this next run up. Wave 2 on the daily has turned back up for another stab at that new trendline. Most pairs don't top until Wave 2 is complete. We could potentially move up to 1.6338 from here, which is the 88.6 retrace on the larger fib levels.
In most cases, a Wave 5 strike doesn't mark the top. We almost always see a pullback and then a move back up to make one more high minimum in a 1-2 move.
Hey Kirby. Yeah, AU is just getting the party started on the next larger downside move. Gonna be nice.
Here's another view of the EA 4 hour chart Jav showing an even larger pattern. Notice we completed 5 waves in this channel and we're working on a 5 wave move back up. This move back up will complete the next rally and set it up for more downside, just like the daily chart is setting up for a Wave 3 down after this next move up.
No problem Jav. I like to keep everyone up to date on where I am in my trading and where the wave counts are so we can all be on the same page.
It's got a ways to go up yet Jav. Wave 3 up on the EA 4 hour chart is just getting started.
The EA 4 hour and daily charts I just posted are a good example Jav. Look at this last overall drop on EA. On the daily chart, it only shows a Wave 2 peak and then an almost straight line down on the TDI with a hook back up forming.
But on the 4 hour chart, that wave down is broken into 5 distinct waves and now a 1-2 count on a series back to the topside.
So we need both time frames to accurately count the waves AND know where we are in the larger frame of things.
EA Analysis
I think I'm gonna bail out on my EA longs when this next 5 wave sequence is completed on the 4 hour chart.
The 4 hour chart is setting up a bullish run, probably back to the highs. The weekly chart is bullish in the middle of a 5th wave run up.
But the daily has formed a new channel with a Wave 2 peak in a downward direction that could give us more downside later on EA before it hits a point where it can rally on a larger scale.
Right now I'm thinking we're likely headed back to 1.60 to 1.61 first. Then we'll see another pullback.
4 Hour Chart first then daily chart...
Right. That's the top-down approach I mentioned earlier. A lot of times, the waves can get confusing on the lower time frames, just like trying to watch price action on only a lower time frame can mess you up if you don't realize what's happening on the larger frame.
I'd start with at least a 4 hour chart and then work my way down on just one pair first. Get the hang of it and then expand out to different pairs.
I'll do my best Jav. The house has been pretty crazy lately with folks in and out and LOTS of grandbabies so it's hard to find a quiet moment.
Basically, the reason I sometimes label 5 small waves as one large (1) is because it's representing a move on a larger time frame.
For example, what may look like a straight line on a 4 hour chart is actually made up of 5 waves on a smaller time frame like the hourly.
I've actually gotten now to where I label them in a bit more detail, like this GJ chart below. This is a 15 minute chart I was using to track that big Wave 3 move up and down on the 4 hour chart. I've got the movements labeled so I'll remember what they are and for others to follow as well.
Basically though, if you can just count 5 in a given direction, that's really all you need to make some good money even without watching multiple time frames.
And there's the AU drop on the news...the waves predicted it yet again.
I've got to say, I really like this setup. Might be early sometimes, but when it finally kicks in, it pays off very well.
EA jumping now as well right off the TDI wave 2 lows.
Gotta get some things done. With long term trades in place, no need to babysit them. Be back later...
Ok, final recap here for long term trades...
Short AU at 0.71689, TP set for 0.6910.
Long EU at 1.11374, TP set for 1.1465.
Long EA at 1.55303, TP set for 1.725. Not sure how it's gonna get there but that's what the chart says to expect long term.
Yes, keep it light. Potential upside is over 1700 pips from here.
EA long TP set for 1.7250. No, that's not a typo...that's over 1700 pips up from here.
Definitely early on this one...LOL!
Right, I was thinking the same thing, Qui. Topside risk is limited with the daily AU Wave 4 topped out.
No, I just went long on EU Qui. It hasn't even started running yet. I got in long at 1.1137 and it's still sitting right there at my entry. Plenty of time to get in long here on EU.
Long EA at 1.5530...probably early again. It's set to being a nice Wave 3 up from these levels.
Closed the GJ long for a bit over 13 pips profit. I don't know what it is but something is making me nervous about that trade. I'm probably just being silly.
Morning Kirby. I'm probably early again as usual but the longer term daily AU pattern still looks good for a drop, even if I have to add later so I'm not worried about it right here.
Ok, so to recap where I'm at...been a crazy morning. Keep in mind I'm probably early on most if not all of these trades.
Short AU at 0.71689, TP set for 0.6910.
Long EU at 1.11374, TP set for 1.1465.
Long GJ at 163.61, TP set for 165.30.
Ok, never mind again...leaving the AU short in place...LOL!
Sorry about the back and forth. Had someone dividing my attention.
TP on the AU short set for 0.6910
Scratch that AU trade...back in a sec. Don't want to short here just yet.
Shorted AU here at 0.71689
Ok, I'm long EU again Qui here at 1.1137. I really don't know why I keep playing this pair. I'm not particularly fond of EU at all.
Topside EU target set at 1.1465 unless we make a slightly lower low.