Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Why don't I? You are asserting it is not-- I assumed by the amount of words you used to describe that it didn't, that you'd have the references readily available. My bad?
Money Flow Chart Update: "Meet a Genuine Bullish Candlestick Pattern"
The Fibonacci support (S2) @ 0.307 "held" and the candle ended up in a Bullish Meeting Line pattern (#1 on chart). It has a 56% success rate of reversal confirmation.
Money Flow TA 3 Cycle Turning: Money MOMO (ChiOsc) repelled its negative pair, and is now aligned with short-term Retail (CMF 3) (#2 on chart). In addition, monthly "Smart" (read: manipulative) Money (MFI 21) turned up.
What lacks confirmation is short-term "Smart" money (MFI 3) as it broke back down today. This means sell volume was still overall stronger.
The current volume watch is still for % change (#3 on chart) to continue to trend higher (PVO) assuming the scale tips to buy side (orange arrow would turn green). Which brings up the next dynamic needed (in absence of news)-- return of momo traders...
Taylor Orion-- thank you for taking the time to form such a response...
... however, after 586 words that included 3,492 characters it is inaccurate as it relates to my exact request of supplying the math (which could have been done). And of course, this was a follow-on request to a previous request to answer the question: what is "significant availability?"
Overall, this was within the context of your asserted statement: "... The company itself does not have significant availability to sell shares. ...", which I am claiming is false and had provided the math to back up that claim.
It appears your assertion now is that the math cannot be done because the conversion price is somehow adjustable. However, the conversion price is fixed-- both for the Preferred Share conversion and the Warrants. So please provide the exact wording you are using/interpreting to come up with the notion that the conversions are not at a fixed price-- thank you
The rest of your quite lengthy post is a straw man IMHO. It doesn't apply to the issue at hand.
I re-assert that the company has the ability to tap into approximately 45 million common shares. I further assert that is significant.
(FTR, your opening statement is incomplete as the underlying common shares must be registered as well. Such action may take longer than 60 days.)
Taylor Orion-- You will need to show your math because I accounted for almost all of what you have stated.
It's simple (even though I did indeed read through the filing and all exhibits):
OS per the 8K filing: 79,529,254
Underlying Shares for the Preferred: 53,418,264
Underlying Shares for the Warrants: 26,709,132
Total pre RS: 159,656,650
Total Post RS: 31,931,330
AS: 80,000,000
Your $1.8 million additional right to purchase more Preferreds is a moot point given it would be "additional" dilution; but be that as it may, conceding that still leaves over $7,000,000 worth of shares to sell if the selling price were $0.20/share...
... which is still a significant availability.
Again, please show your math that addresses your assertion that "... The company itself does not have significant availability to sell shares. ..."
Money Flow Chart Update: "Catch a Paring Knife (Hopefully)"
The price collapsed as feared (#1 on chart). Broke Raff Regression Channel (blue) and Fibonacci Fan (gray). Fibonacci support (S2) @ 0.307 key level to watch (was breached today).
Money Flow TA 3 Cycle Almost Bottomed: Money MOMO (ChiOsc) continued in a downward (negative) direction, which contradicts the short-term Retail (CMF 3) slight upturn (#2 on chart) but not "Smart" (read: manipulative) Money's (MFI 3) continued downturn.
To note, the monthly cycle of Retail/"Smart" money direction could drop into oversold territory as the final of three remaining larger buy volume bars was removed from calculations...
... this creates a volume (PVO) pivot as it pertains to direction-- no news increased downward volume pressure (#3 on chart) in a liquid float will flush out remaining flippers/"smart" money sells and prep the way for a bounce.
Can you please define "significant availability?" Taylor Orion?
I calculate a 31,057,233 fully diluted OS count if the Preferreds are converted and the associated Warrants exercised.
Add the company incentive shares in their Plan and you are still below 35 million shares.
That leaves the company 45 million shares to issue/sell-- even @ $0.20/share, that's still $9,000,000 worth of Authorized Shares to use...
... I'd say that is significant.
What am I missing?
Congrats interloper-- was wondering about you today. Nice recovery!
I have a bid in @ 0.24, but don't expect it to get filled...
... technically, I am waiting for the full 3-Cycle down Money Flow TA chart to flush out (the lower the monthly smart money goes [reflected in MFI 21] the better the odds the heavy sellers, affiliates, 3rd parties etc. have flushed out this "round")
Flipped F Oct 18(M) 13C +14.12% in ~1 1/2 hrs (link back to 5 min Pincher chart)
Still holding:
F shares 16.58 #msg-106378145
NOV Oct 24(W) 81C 2.22 #msg-106338566
POST Oct 35C 2.70 #msg-105792199
VLO Oct 49.5C 0.67 #msg-106448309
Sorry but I can't help it-- it's in my nature...
... anyway-- you first
Are you asserting DRIOD is (highly) correlated to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) Doctor?
This chart says no; but attempting to suggest a correlation to explain normal OTC selling behavior is typical...
Cut and Paste required: stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$INDU,DRIOD&n=200&O=011000
What happened to the buy signals from yesterday's video? What should a reader come away with based on yesterday's video and today's excuse for why the prediction did not come to pass?
Do you know that technically yesterday wasn't even a Bullish Engulfing candle? (Neither was today's a Bearish Harami for that matter given the close of today was lower than the close yesterday.)
Without "power hour" volume turning to "BUY" as opposed to "SELL," the "chart" could end up with a Bearish Harami closing below the 20 day Moving Average (MA)-- a scant single session after a Bullish Engulfing breaching the 20 MA was declared a "buy signal" ...
... BTW, a Bullish Engulfing pattern doesn't consider wicks/tails
(Money Flow Charts work. Typical TA only tracks price movement, not volume.)
You don't know how to track the recoup of investment as it comes through share conversion & warrant exercise selling?
How about the secondary market?
Money Flow Chart Update: "Wary of Weary Volume" (option 1 in previous post)
The price stayed nestled between Fibonacci Pivot Points (P = Pivot & S1 = Support 1) on Volume approx 10 times less than 8EMA.
Money Flow TA 3 Cycle Hinting at Divergence: Money MOMO (ChiOsc) continued in a downward (negative) direction, which contradicts the short-term Retail (CMF 3) and "Smart" (read: manipulative) Money (MFI 3) upturn.
To note, the monthly cycle of Retail/"Smart" money direction continues its downward trend as the first of three remaining larger buy volume bars was removed from calculations...
... this accentuates the volume (PVO) conundrum as it pertains to direction-- no news up drift within a temporary illiquid float will eventually give way to flippers/"smart" money sell volume (especially when "loaded" within a larg(er) b/a gap).
(FTR: statistically a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern has no better than a ~50% chance of both "confirming" Bullish and generating a successful trade when track against OTC stocks for the past 3+ years.)
Good afternoon Phin
"... why you have such a keen interest in this stock? ..."
Asked and answered #msg-106783790
"... Is it because you see a lot of potential here? ..."
Not "a lot" but it certainly has potential; although in my research DRIO doesn't appear to have anything special that would set them apart over their competitors and they also appear to be a bit late to the market.
"... you see this stock is similar to big board stocks in certain ways even though it's an OTC? ..."
No-- quite the opposite. It appears to be the standard fledgling company using the OTC markets as opposed to typical pre-IPO financing routes taken by other private companies. The interest lies in tracking the typical manipulation and sporadic momentum generated in this phase.
--Market Makers are not manipulating this stock.
--The Float is not locked.
--Over-Hyping the potential to generate sporadic liquidity to sell into (to manage/recoup investments or flip for profits) while persuading a retail shareholder support base to hold onto their investment (and not manage risk) will continue to be the driving force in the short-term.
I don't make "predictions," but I do analyze price levels and volumes to establish watch zones ChargersSBBound...
... the key for tomorrow is going to be volume:
1. If the volume is below the expected 8EMA level of 434k, then the stock has a higher probability of maintaining the open and even closing in positive territory.
2. If the volume is above the expected 8EMA level of 434k, then the stock has a higher probability of dropping to a lower level.
In both cases, the trading behavior of painting the close is very much in play.
Key price levels based on Fibonacci Pivots will be 0.64 (P) to the upside and 0.435 (S1) to the downside.
I'd argue the non-emotional post-RS (but fully diluted) share target based on projecting revenues in the near-term is $0.58
This assumes based on filings:
1. 31,057,233.20 shares (fully diluted)
It further assumes based on a SeeThruEquity Research Report:
2. $600,000 projected sales in Q4
It further assumes a 10x Price to Sales Ratio (PSR; it's the metric I use for OTC companies emerging from R&D into commercialization)
$/year OS $/Share Price Proj PS Q Revs Needed
$1,000,000.00 31,057,233 0.032198618 0.321986184 10 $333,333.33
$1,800,000.00 31,057,233 0.057957513 0.579575131 10 $600,000.00
$2,000,000.00 31,057,233 0.064397237 0.643972368 10 $666,666.67
$5,000,000.00 31,057,233 0.160993092 1.609930919 10 $1,666,666.67
$10,000,000.00 36,297,233 0.275503093 2.755030926 10 $3,333,333.33
Smilin_B gave a great explanation. On the surface, the Proxy Statement made sense and-- IMHO -- should have lead a shareholder to support the motions and vote in favor...
... it's the actual use -vs- intended use that bothers me. Again it points to/through the CFO-- not very confident in his ability to maintain/grow shareholder value
I wish I had a better answer, but one has to start with the CFO as he is in charge of these things.
In this case the CFO's pattern of behavior (since signing on in Nov 2013) is strikingly (and sadly) similar to his behavior since taking over the CFO reigns of Adira Energy in Jan 2011.
Adira has just recently completed its 2nd reverse split-- with the 1st occurring in Aug 2013. In my experience, the noticible short-lived spike post Aug 2013 split and subsequent downtrend is typical OTC RS behavior. Labstyle must come through fundamentally to put in, maintain and grow a support base else it will too fall victim to equity disaster.
The company chose to reverse split to the maximum they were allowed. Back in May, they asked the shareholders to authorize them to have the option to do an RS: "... between one-for-two and one-for-five with such ratio to be determined at the sole discretion of the Board (the “Reverse Split”) and with such Reverse Split to be effected at such time and date, if at all, as determined by the Board in its sole discretion (the “Reverse Split Proposal”) ..."
And what the shareholders were told the reason for the split was indeed to seek listing on a higher exchange: "... If the Board determines to effect the Reverse Split, the intent is to increase the stock price of our Common Stock, which is currently trading on the OTCQB, to a level sufficiently above the minimum bid price requirement that is required for initial listing on both The Nasdaq Capital Market and the NYSE MKT LLC (the Nasdaq Capital Market and the NYSE MKT LLC collectively referred to as the “Exchanges”) such that the Board, at its sole discretion, may apply for initial listing on either of the Exchanges ..."
And the share price at the time (5/14/14) was well above today's-- it closed @ $1.35
Retail Shareholders (at least those who voted based on the Proxy Statement) got duped; but to be fair it appears management got themselves in an equity "pickle."
Having said that, I think management's credibility (written word) with handling the equity side of the company should take a hit given they went forward with the RS prior to the promised notification: "... the company will make a further announcement regarding the exact timing for the stock split. ..."
Wow-- what an excellent pop! Congrats interloper
(I would have been tempted to flip out of the position based on the options reaching my estimated intrinsic-- wish I had joined you )
You are wrong... again
ChargersSBBound-- I don't care what level of credibility is being applied and I too have seen his video(s)...
... a low (price) of the day for 2 candles separated by 2 candles does not equal a double "bottom"-- ever, period. No "real" chartist would attempt to insist on such a thing even moreso when factually proven wrong.
This is not a difference of opinion-- it is factually wrong.
Please source your reference to a Double Bottom pattern Dr Penny Stock...
... It does not meet the technical pattern definition you are "naming"
Double Bottom:
1. Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there must be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the Double Bottom Reversal, a significant downtrend of several months should be in place.
2. First Trough: The first trough should mark the lowest point of the current trend. As such, the first trough is fairly normal in appearance and the downtrend remains firmly in place.
3. Peak: After the first trough, an advance takes place that typically ranges from 10 to 20%. Volume on the advance from the first trough is usually inconsequential, but an increase could signal early accumulation. The high of the peak is sometimes rounded or drawn out a bit from the hesitation to go back down. This hesitation indicates that demand is increasing, but still not strong enough for a breakout.
4. Second Trough: The decline off the reaction high usually occurs with low volume and meets support from the previous low. Support from the previous low should be expected. Even after establishing support, only the possibility of a Double Bottom Reversal exists, and it still needs to be confirmed. The time period between troughs can vary from a few weeks to many months, with the norm being 1-3 months. While exact troughs are preferable, there is some room to maneuver and usually a trough within 3% of the previous is considered valid.
5. Advance from Trough: Volume is more important for the Double Bottom Reversal than the double top. There should clear evidence that volume and buying pressure are accelerating during the advance off of the second trough. An accelerated ascent, perhaps marked with a gap or two, also indicates a potential change in sentiment.
6. Resistance Break: Even after trading up to resistance, the double top and trend reversal are still not complete. Breaking resistance from the highest point between the troughs completes the Double Bottom Reversal. This too should occur with an increase in volume and/or an accelerated ascent.
7. Resistance Turned Support: Broken resistance becomes potential support and there is sometimes a test of this newfound support level with the first correction. Such a test can offer a second chance to close a short position or initiate a long.
8. Price Target: The distance from the resistance breakout to trough lows can be added on top of the resistance break to estimate a target. This would imply that the bigger the formation is, the larger the potential advance.
Source: StockCharts.com
Please source your reference to a Bullish Ladder Bottom pattern Taylor Orion...
... It does not meet the technical candlestick pattern definition you are "naming"
Bullish Ladder Bottom:
1. 1st three days are black days with lower opens and closes each day.
2. 4th day is a black day with an upper shadow.
3. The last day is white that opens above the body of the 4th day.
Source: Hotcandlestick.com
I like the potential interloper-- thanks for sharing I like to use TRIX (5,3) and Inverted ChiOsc (10,3) for early/options entry for Pincher setups and that looks promising...
... I would have preferred ITM 55Cs @ 57.35-57.55 (b/a) as I like having the premium closer to intrinsic-- in this case ~0.50 off as opposed to 57.5C @ ~1.35. I see a profit point ~58.50 w/ estimating MA20 level, which would lead to more "estimated intrinsic" profit off the 55Cs (~1/contract as opposed to ~0.25). At least that's how I calculate the trade potential.
Let me attempt to set the record straight Dr
1. There is absolutely no technical double bottom
a. The established downtrend time is too short (1 to 2a)
b. The established time between the first and second trough is too short (2a to 2b)
c. There is no increase in buy volume noted from the second trough-- in fact the volume has steadily decreased
2. Some chartists use wicks & tails in drawing support/resistance lines. I don't in general-- but perhaps I need to relook at that & I concede your point of strength at the 0.10 level
3. The 20MA is a big deal to many chartists and especially to those who employ Bollinger Bands (BB)--the mid-bb is the 20MA
I am duplicating your chart and adding the BBs, Fibonacci pivots (more objective support/resistance levels), and the money flow indicators I suggest be monitored. DRIO has begun a 3-cycle down (red arrows), the last 2 down cycles (A & B) suggest a soft bottom between .07 and .09 (depending on reactive buy volume).
I suggest you branch out a little more from the default stockcharts chart (duly noting your pSAR and ADX additions). BTW, do you recognize you've depicted a modified Pincher setup (modified by using MACD vice PPO)?
You asked me to consider a video-- thought I'd see what one considered "authentic" contained. ( #msg-106787273 )
The 1st part was just hollow chest thumping-- I assume in an attempt to impress the viewing audience and provide strength to his "analysis."
1. RSI "analysis": okay
2. ADX "analysis": liked the -DI observation but not the ADX drop continuation that was mapped to downtrend cessation
3. Candle Positioning observations: okay
4. Trendline depiction: okay
5. Pattern recognition: incorrect
6. MA references/target area: neutral (no real support aside from an MA line to suggest a movement from this level to the mid-0.30s)
Overall, I don't think it is very supportable-cogent analysis. Is that the kind of layman's explanation you were looking for?
Your acceptance of the 20MA as significant seems to contradict your reference to it in the last video Dr PennyStock.
Also, technically your video incorrectly attempts to identify a "double bottom" when no such pattern exists in the area you refer to.
Lastly, I wouldn't say the support at 0.10 is strong-- what are you using to qualify/quantify the "strength"?
"Clearly" the "mumbo jumbo" Money Flow 3-Cycle out/down has begun
Glad you brought up the "float" cruzdelsur The Float Turnover Ratio is 200% higher than "normal"
Ticker TOR Float 8EMA WF EF EF % Float
DRIO 3.21% *73,000,465 2,340,000 7,572,240 19,824,124 27.16%
DRIO was brought to the Pincher board as a "text book" setup by a popular momentum trader on 9/8. Classic example of how "Big Board TA" fails to expose the OTC underbelly of momo pushers and sophisticated sellers...
... easy to read a Money Flow chart-- doesn't take 17 years lol
Tuesday, 09/09/14 06:11:02 PM
You're welcome Posiden. I'd be interested in your conclusions.
Thanks for the discussion
I don't deny the possibility and don't dispute your interpretation of it. And I don't research very many OTC companies nowadaze so I can't comment on gambling relativity...
... however, I can say with surety at this exact juncture it is very high risk for long side given the state of the product/stage of the company. Re-measurements should be taken when milestones are attained or delayed/missed.
Yes-- that is an excellent article Posiden Well worth reading. The exact point with OTC stocks is you separate the "Volume" categorized indicators into 2 groups-- flow volume/direction (ChiOsc and PVO) and trading/investing group supporting (CMF and MFI). They are only 4 indicators by the way lol
CMF, by virtue of how it is calculated (based on price position relative to overall candle), represents retail buying/sentiment— when the overall trend is down you can interpret it as Retail Buyers beginning to lose faith in the movement.
ChiOsc (the MACD of the A/D line) and MFI (money flow at the averages) represent "sophisticated" Sellers' affect on “normal” trading. When they are providing more supply than the demand can handle (reflected in MFI), money momentum is degraded/stopped (reflected in ChiOsc). ChiOsc will tell you when the run is losing momentum and MFI will tell you when the demand fades but the sellers remain. When the ChiOsc collapses along with a down trending MFI against flat or uptrending CMF (non-collinear action-- actually divergence), it can be interpreted as retailers trying to "catch a falling knife."
Given that, for momentum generated runs, the emphasis is placed on the average price to qualify/quantify supply/demand battles. Both CMF and MFI are tracked in multiple periods-- 3 periods for short-term trying to quantify the daytrader, flipper and heavy sellers and 21 periods to trend based on a typical month.
RSI has its place in momentum watching and is a very good indicator for Big Board stocks, but with all due respect I wouldn't watch for a break of the 35 level; rather I'd watch/wait for the 3-cycle CMF and MFI to drop and see what affect it has on the ChiOsc as well as what volume it brings relected in the PVO.
(FTR, I add ADX to a combined 7-cycle money flow cluster to help assess strength given ADX is ambivalent to direction.)
I have not spent an enormous amount of time researching the company's product. On the surface it looks as promising as any legitimate fledgling RDT&E company attempting to emerge from R&D...
... my issue is with the "equity" side of the equation given they chose the OTC route. It was very apparent from reading the filings and seeing the price action that the dilution and subsequent follow-on (make whole) dilution provided much needed funding at an extreme cost to retail shareholders.
This new round of just in time financing via reverse split stuck out like a sore thumb in the filings. It too, will extract a heavy cost to retail shareholders without narrowing the milestone horizon.
The company should focus on developing a fundamental support base that is more concrete than the hopeful abstracts. Unfortunately OTC is run by momentum and backdoor sellers. Success is measured in short-term volume generation and price apexes, not sustained price appreciation.
Well for one Smilin_B-- the chartists I have read here are applying Big Board TA to an OTC stock. That's a very big mistake...
... other than that, the momentum traders are trying to milk another run prior to the RS-- assume for selfish reasons.
If you want to manage risk in OTC stocks follow the Money-- CMF, MFI, ChiOsc and PVO. 3 cycle-movements for the 1st 3 indicators. Money flow says the momo pushers are currently propping up the price on dwindling volume.
If they can't attract new bagholders shortly, the price will fall-- perhaps even collapse. If CMF (retail support) drops, they've lost the ask slappers.
The reverse split that was also voted upon and authorized Posiden-- it doesn't affect the number of Authorized Shares, just reduces the Outstanding Shares.
FWIW, when the reverse split is executed many shareholders will not be able to trade their shares until the Transfer Agent and Brokerage completes the transaction (can take several days even a week or so). No trader in their right mind would hold through a Reverse Split for that very reason as they all have a negative (sell) pressure attached...
... and most investors shouldn't but many have been distracted from employing rational risk logic
Flipped F Oct 10(W) 14C +15.39% in ~1/2 hr (chart below)
Still holding:
F shares 16.58 #msg-106378145
NOV Oct 24(W) 81C 2.22 #msg-106338566
POST Oct 35C 2.70 #msg-105792199
VLO Oct 49.5C 0.67 #msg-106448309
5 min Pincher
Rolled NOV Oct 24(W) 81C (.47 debit) #msg-106338566
9/23 Avg Dwn VLO Oct 49.5C 0.67 #msg-106448309
Still holding:
F shares 16.58 #msg-106378145
NOV Oct 24(W) 81C 2.22 #msg-106338566
POST Oct 35C 2.70 #msg-105792199
VLO Oct 49.5C 0.67 #msg-106448309