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Agreed! Chart: http://scharts.co/UWs4iM
I will paint the close with 1000 shares as a token of appreciation and get the chart looking the way it should
BOOOOM someone just voted with their wallet, hats off to you mystery buyer!
$800 buys you $13250 (if you were SURE we win) today. 5000 at the ASK forever at .17... just sayin...
THAT would make for a VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS!
Realistic vs psychic. I am not trying to arouse anyone, just still calling things like I see them. Whatever amount of shares there are, THEY ARE NOT BEING BOUGHT above .17 right now. Nobody here who is "sure" of an outcome is voting with their wallet, it is as simple as that.
Im talking about in general. How did that one trade stop anyone from buying more? I mean there are tons of shares available all the way up to .30, which could all be ten baggers if they are bought here, no MM is stopping anyone from buying those...
Share price is not being manipulated by the MMs, there is just no buying going on. Anyone who really believes this will settle can buy here and make 10X their money. I know why I am on the fence about buying more, not sure why those who see this as a done deal are though...
ThinkorSwim works, but Etrade now empty for me, are you seeing anything now?
I guess I am just asking what I am missing here. I am still faithful that something good can happen here but somehow I got myself confused as to how a settlement is likely given the fairly adamant position in the transcript.
What in the transcript though made it sounds like the government would back down in any way, including a settlement? BK plan HAD to be in place if a judgement comes, and the last words in the transcript indicate to me Amy WILL rule, she just needs time. I think if anyone here was truly sold on the idea of a settlement with $2.65 payout they would be taking out loans to buy hand over fist, but the share price not moving means all of us are unsure at this point.
Settlement before a judgement sounds less likely when Amy says she will issue an opinion when she can, not sure why some here thought that was indicative of a settlement coming prior to judgement, but just sounds like her saying that it will take some time. And the parties did not sound like they were backing down from their positions, so its hard for me to see how a settlement talk is going on behind the scenes?
I finally got through the whole thing and am left with the same feeling I think many of us have, namely that she was equally harsh with both parties arguments and did not tip her hand. So to me there actually is an aspect of 50/50, just that the payout is 10X so that still makes it worth owning the stock.
The defense did have some good sounding arguments if they were true, but one thing I really liked about Amy was that she slapped them hard for all the metaphors (swiss cheese, car going off a cliff, etc) that they tried to slip in to bias her opinion. If the FACTS are indeed in the favor of UWBK when the entire AR is looked at, then she will decide in favor of them.
kind of bothersome how much Amy harps on UWBK about the past plans and MOUs etc, and how she simply tells the defense that she is not so worried about the verbiage in the OCC communications that stated something along the lines of "we intend to deny..." making it seem like a foregone conclusion that did not matter if the bank raised a billion in a week. To me that is a bit of a smoking gun, but as best I can tell she attributes it to underlings who would then be checked later at a higher level. That is pretty much BS in my book, what underlings can be so bold as to state so matter of fact that there will be a denial?
UWBK Lawyers: "At the time of the seizure, there was$426 million in liquidity at the bank. OCC-UWB, the supplemental
filing in this case, pages 793 and 798, show that from January the 7th, when there was $394 million in liquidity, to January the 14th, when there was $404 million in liquidity, to January the 20th, the date of seizure, when there was $426 million in liquidity. This was not a run on the bank. This was not a bank that was presenting such an imminent threat to the deposit fund,that precipitous action, immediate action needed to be taken."
Amy: "Plaintiff's brief lays out a very compelling narrative"
Court transcripts not making anyone confident, or at least not enough to buy more at these levels. I have not yet seen the transcript but if it was good I would guess we would see some volume and we would bust back up. But at least we are not back down to .1 so seems people are not selling too much either. Continues to be a wait and see looks like.
Fred, so if we lose we will obviously appeal, right?
We should be trading at .3 again soon. That is where the chart was at the beginning of the year right BEFORE the BK news came out. But the BK news caused a huge drop from which literally the SP has never fully recovered. Yet, the filing tonight reaffirms the current POL/POR in which common shareholders will share in damages. Seems the MMs are doing their best to keep the SP down, and they are succeeding, but based on where SP was before the BK news, nothing has materially changed, in fact now we are virtually ASSURED participation in damages.
Nice. Thanks for sharing that, needed a bit of positive news today. Took a fair hit in HUSA a few days ago, UWBK would make up for it by a HUGE margin if it hits the way we have calculated, fingers crossed and double crossed.
I guess I mean did your talks today improve the outlook in any way, or you were just always 100% optimistic and the people you talked to today did not change that?
Soooo, how do you feel right now about our prospects?
The thing is chart analysis can work for almost any other stock, but this is a thin strange stock. It either looks good or looks bad, but in the end it does not really matter. It is so thin that slapping bid or ask you can literally manifest the kind of predictions you are making, so it does not really impress any of us.
Rather, tell us some stocks with real volume that you are following, what your predictions are there, and if you hit them I will be impressed. In fact I'd be happy to share objective ideas on those with you.
But this UWBKQ is binary as you said, BUT the difference is the odds payoff multiple is good, so not the same as playing red black in Vegas, you are wrong there. In vegas a 50/50 bet on red or black pays out what you bet, here it is likely to be 10X or more.
Seems to me that the case is leverage for a settlement, i.e. "if you settle with us then of course we drop the case." How would that work in reverse? "Hey, we dropped the case, would you guys like to settle now?" A: "No." What recourse do they have then? "Well, we will just start another case".
I'm probably missing something in that logic, but whatever leads to a real settlement, works for me!
Nice day, chart looks great, looking forward to tomorrow.
L4L said he would hold for the ride, then sold 25% more today lol.
Not thrilled to see VNDM here, but whatever, we are looking good, all MMs will be unimportant in the event of a settlement.
I mostly daytrade so have never had a long term capital gain, but my understanding is that if you hold a stock for more than a year, if you sell it for profit it would be taxed at the long term capital gains tax of 15%.
Whatever happened to that guy Mesa?
71% of my shares were bought over a year ago, so if we settled this year I can get a long term capital gain on most of the shares, just in the nick of time before the taxes go up. Fingers crossed, things seem to be looking up now, though I have had hope before and the case dragged on so still ready to hold this another year if need be.
I propose we have a satellite feed for flippers to attend the Vegas party remotely.
POL + Today's PR = Very Cool
They believe the parties can come to an agreement, have not heard that in a PR before
OK, this sounds much more positive!
Interesting perspective! Thanks for sharing that.
So ironic that a 100 share buy here could move this 50% up, still holding for the real move, in the meantime just living in the matrix lol.
Longs in UWBKQ tend to yawn at this kind of price action. YAWN.
We are now back to where we were around the end of August in terms of share price.
Exactly right, if the $200M number meant more the share price would be higher. We should forget about the number for now and just be glad that the POL defines a DEFINITE PLAN TO PAYOUT SHAREHOLDERS, which as many here have stated does not always happen in these cases. A settlement that is too low and does not reach shareholders will likely not be approved by the plaintiff because they still have shares and want restitution.
I think you are correct about the $200M being meant to get the attention of the defendant. In negotiation theory and cognitive bias theory, this is called "setting an anchor". You always shoot high when doing this, understanding that the other party may come in lower.
But by this logic, it would be hard to say that the $200M is a done deal, and further it might also mean the settlement, if it happens, could be lower than the $200M (could be higher if it happens on a judgement of course, but if this is the top anchor set, then usual negotiation flow would mean it comes in lower if is the anchor). I hope for a settlement of at least $200M, but as best I can tell so far this is merely a speculation, not a certainty.
I have to agree with you. Lots of posts here by people saying it is a done deal, and yet the share price is only back up to where it was a number of weeks ago. So if there were any real conviction at all even among the posters who insist that a settlement has been reached THEY WOULD BE BUYING HAND OVER FIST. If I knew it was a done deal and I could scoop up shares under .2 that are CLEARLY worth 2.75 on a 10x deal I would be margining myself to the hilt to get them if I had to, duh! But the share price and tame volume just tells us most people here HOPE this is a done deal, not that they actually BELIEVE it is.
Still long, still expecting a positive outcome, but not betting the farm that it will happen anytime soon, nor apparently is anyone else here despite posts to the contrary lol.
Clearly there is some doubt among us as to whether this 200M settlement possibility is REAL. I mean, I know I am unsure, thus why I have not bought more at these prices. And yet a lot of posters are posting as though this is a done deal. If they believed that I think the SP and volume would tell a different story. So, though I remain long, and still believe in victory longer term, I am calling a spade a spade here.