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I'm getting this eerie feeling Da Boyz want to take out the recent highs...today! Then what is the Bradley turn date? An extension of this rally to yet more highs? Or the decline (wave C down) that many gurus have been predicting for so long? Two
Yup, you're right, 2-bit. Glad I'm long, even though it was tempting to go short yesterday. Best to follow the trend, right. Two
Hey, disbelief, I'll be buying on weakness. Daily charts have convinced me we're in an up-swing, despite today opening down. This rally isn't over yet. Nov. 9 is a Bradley turn, plus or minus a few days. We'll see.... Two
Five-min charts think we drop in the morning, but daily charts think we go up after that. What a game! Two
Well, what do you think? Will tomorrow's non-farm payroll numbers impress folks or tank the market? Two
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Tomorrow the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be reporting its October non-farm payrolls number. The consensus of economists is for a job loss of only 175,000 which is an improvement over the prior month loss....
Looks like they're going to try their damnest to close all the indexes at the highs. Two
Sure looks like they want to close with 10K INDU before tomorrow morning's report, however. Two
Now you're beginning to think like Da Boyz, Gleno (lol). Two
OT: I live in TX and was appalled when I watched this TV report on Denninger's site re. legislative fraud in my state. It's short and worth a view. Bet it's happening in your state, as well. Two
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
There's no way that could happen, Gleno. What, are you paranoid or something (lol). Two
Today's rally could be a set-up for tomorrow's numbers(?). But I think any drop will be bought. My daily charts show the same patterns as the other rallies we've seen since last March. Two
OT: Denninger tells the truth about today's unemployment numbers. When are Americans going to wake up? Two
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This is pretty amazing, really:
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 9.5 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2009, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
That's a stunning number. But you better pay attention to what this means:
Output increased 4.0 percent and hours worked decreased 5.0 percent in the third quarter of 2009.
Got it? Here's the bottom line:
From the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009, nonfarm business output fell 3.5 percent and hours worked fell faster, 7.5 percent, resulting in a productivity increase of 4.3 percent (tables A and 2). The four-quarter decline in hours was the largest in the series, which begins in 1948.
Here was the mantra from employers:
Work harder, get paid for fewer hours, OR GET FIRED!
This sounds great if you're an employer, but as an employee, or wanna-be employee (that is, you're unemployed)?
Then it's horrible, as the better the productivity of existing workers, the less likely it is that you, dear reader, will be able to find a job, as the wall of output has yet to meet the wall of exerted labor.
This also means that per-unit of output, labor is reaping less in wage, which in turn means that per unit of output there is less in disposable income available to purchase it.
Yeah, the futures liked that report, "amped" by the CNBC liars parade - it's "great" that companies are squeezing the employee and getting better profits out of smaller labor inputs, right?
Exactly who is it that buys the output of those firms, and with what do they purchase it? On a forward basis what will this mean for consumption - and eventually, both production and sales?
If you're right, then tomorrow's low may be a good time to go long. My charts think so, anyway. Two
Sounds good to me, Fox. But as long as Goldman runs the government, it will never happen. Two
Karl Denninger or Ron Paul (lol)? Two
No, it was the news that Geithner's $2.3 billion bailout of CIT all went down the drain (lol). Like anyone really cares, right? Two
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While senior debt holders will only lose 30% of their investment, we, the U.S. taxpayer, will lose the entire $2.3 billion we lent the company this summer.
William Black, professor at the University of Missouri-Kansas City School of Law is dumbfounded. "We put ourselves on the hook in a completely inept way where we lose first. We lose entirely as the taxpayers."
Fire Geithner?
Hey, you, I'm not bullish or bearish, which I think is critical in this environment. Remember last week when you questioned me when I said it looked like the market would go up? Everything you said was correct about how bearish things looked. But I think it's very important to keep in mind that this market is manipulated by Goldman Sachs. With such close links to Obama and many in Congress, this company can ill afford to allow the market to fail. If it did, the economy would fail and, as I mentioned in an earlier post, that probably won't be allowed to happen as we approach key retail/holiday periods. I wouldn't be surprised if the indexes challenge previous highs during this run. If not now, then later this year? Goldman's trading programs are designed with full knowledge of key support levels used by all of us, and the company has sufficient bucks to move the indexes when they reach these critical levels. Miraculously, everything "comes back to normal" and up we go. This pattern has played out repeatedly since March. Will it fail? Eventually...when Goldman and the other Wall Street crooks need a new infusion of tax dollars vis-a-vis another enormous bailout. There's already talk about this happening. Two
OT: Could it be that Jesus loves Goldman Sachs so much that he made sure their trading strategies were almost always successful? Two
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Absolute Perfection: Goldman Loses Money On Just One Trading Day In Q3
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/04/2009 09:22 -0500
The Goldman 10-Q is out, providing numerous interesting datapoints for those willing to scour through them. The key one: Goldman lost money on just one trading day in Q3, making money on all the other 64. As a reminder, even in Q2 Goldman lost money on two trading days. The statistical probability distribution of 1 out of 65 is something that not the SEC, but Richard Feynman should be looking into, as Goldman Sachs, after rewriting the lass of risk/return, is now set to redefine normal distributions and other Statistics 101 concepts.
Hi, blasher. My opinion is that we won't see the "crash" until 2010, mainly because they don't want consumers to stop spending during the upcoming Thanksgiving/Christmas holiday periods. A severe market decline would certainly inhibit the economy during this crucial period. Two
Here we go again. McHugh has some interesting observations. "Catastrophic wave C has started" but we should rally to new highs first? Guess I don't understand how we can have both? Two
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Stocks have fallen in a parallel trend-channel since the top on October 21st. Tuesday's move looks to have formed a sideways triangle which suggests a wave four was forming. That means another leg lower, small degree wave v down should be next. That should establish a bottom for the first leg down of wave (C ) down. We annotate those patterns on charts on page 8.
Friday's decline took prices below the bottom boundary of the S&P 500's Ascending Bearish Wedge pattern, and decisively below the bottom boundary lines of the Rising Bearish Wedges from March 2009 in the Industrials, S&P 500, and NASDAQ 100, and a significant rising trend-line in Trannies, increasing the odds dramatically that catastrophic wave (C ) down has now started. Therefore, we have moved our top Elliott Wave labeling to this scenario, and moved our alternate labeling to the scenario that another rally to new highs, wave (E) is coming before the top.
Did you read what Karl Denninger had to say this morning about that BNI purchase? Worth a read. Two
My guess is that the INDU drops into the 9650-9675 area and we power up from there tomorrow on some special news (like Corzine, the ex-Goldman exec, winning reelection). Two
Hey, Fox. I think the NDX hit its bottom yesterday at around 2:05. That said, I don't think the INDU has bottomed yet. Until that happens, the NDX will probably trail lower today. But I doubt it will go under 1654. JMHO. Two
I agree and think the indexes may bottom out this afternoon and turn up tomorrow. We're in a strange period, however, and caution is good. It could go up into the Nov. 9 Bradley turn period, then take another dip before going up into the holidays. We'll see. Good luck. Two
OT: Gleno, here's something you can thank Nobama for accomplishing (lol). From ZeroHedge. Two
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By Jeff Harding
The Daily Capitalist
Check out this report on the Obama Administration's latest gift: free golf cart! This is from the Wall Street Journal. I really can't add much to this.
We thought cash for clunkers was the ultimate waste of taxpayer money, but as usual we were too optimistic. Thanks to the federal tax credit to buy high-mileage cars that was part of President Obama's stimulus plan, Uncle Sam is now paying Americans to buy that great necessity of modern life, the golf cart.
The federal credit provides from $4,200 to $5,500 for the purchase of an electric vehicle, and when it is combined with similar incentive plans in many states the tax credits can pay for nearly the entire cost of a golf cart. Even in states that don't have their own tax rebate plans, the federal credit is generous enough to pay for half or even two-thirds of the average sticker price of a cart, which is typically in the range of $8,000 to $10,000. "The purchase of some models could be absolutely free," Roger Gaddis of Ada Electric Cars in Oklahoma said earlier this year. "Is that about the coolest thing you've ever heard?"
The golf-cart boom has followed an IRS ruling that golf carts qualify for the electric-car credit as long as they are also road worthy. These qualifying golf carts are essentially the same as normal golf carts save for adding some safety features, such as side and rearview mirrors and three-point seat belts. They typically can go 15 to 25 miles per hour.
In South Carolina, sales of these carts have been soaring as dealerships alert customers to Uncle Sam's giveaway. "The Golf Cart Man" in the Villages of Lady Lake, Florida is running a banner online ad that declares: "GET A FREE GOLF CART. Or make $2,000 doing absolutely nothing!"
Golf Cart Man is referring to his offer in which you can buy the cart for $8,000, get a $5,300 tax credit off your 2009 income tax, lease it back for $100 a month for 27 months, at which point Golf Cart Man will buy back the cart for $2,000. "This means you own a free Golf Cart or made $2,000 cash doing absolutely nothing!!!" You can't blame a guy for exploiting loopholes that Congress offers.
The IRS has also ruled that there's no limit to how many electric cars an individual can buy, so some enterprising profiteers are stocking up on multiple carts while the federal credit lasts, in order to resell them at a profit later. We should note that some states, such as Oklahoma, have caught on to the giveaway and are debating whether to cancel or limit their state credits. But in Congress they're still on the driving range.
This golf-cart fiasco perfectly illustrates tax policy in the age of Obama, when politicians dole out credits and loopholes for everything from plug-in cars to fuel efficient appliances, home insulation and vitamins. Democrats then insist that to pay for these absurdities they have no choice but to raise tax rates on other things—like work and investment—that aren't politically in vogue. If this keeps up, it'll soon make more sense to retire and play golf than work for living.
So when did T/A ever matter during this rally (lol)? I got some very serious buy signals late this afternoon. As I said, perhaps some more down on Monday? Then we start up on Tuesday? An ewave guru I really trust thinks the Dow will hit 10,500 before the rally quits. I ask myself, why would Da Boyz stop the rally now, especially as we come into November when fund managers will be looking to invest their clients' money? And then there's the holiday season ahead. Who knows? Two
Dan, I agree. Perhaps a little more downside on Monday, then up we go. This decline is about over, in my opinion. Two
I understand, Dan, believe me. Hey, if death could be so easy as to have somone stick a needle into you and say, bye-bye? Shades of "Soylent Green." Stay healthy. Two
Hi, Gleno. I'm fortunate in that I retired with a good health insurance package for my wife and me. The many government healthcare proposals are ridiculous and counter-productive. All sides are guilty: Republicans, Democrats, health insurors, Congress, etc. No one understands the most recent healthcare plan, which is almost 2,000 pages. It's best to remain healthy in your old age. Don't get sick (lol). Two
Looks like the NDX may have bottomed around 12:50 at 1669 or thereabouts. Staked out a QLD position. Two
OT: LOL...George Ure on UrbanSurvival reports the following about the government's jobs numbers. Two
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CNN sent out an email advisory this morning that the "White House says 650,000 jobs were created or saved by $150 billion stimulus funds."
OMG here we go again: Am I the only human with a calculator able to think any more? That's $230,769.23 per job created or saved.
What is in the water supply in Washington? Tell you what: I'm going to save 23-million jobs in the US for today and I'm going to do it for $$5.6-million dollars. Be looking for my bill.
Hook, you're right. The GDP number was another government sham. Or should I say, "...another government-Sachs sham"? I occasionally post these McHugh wave analyses. Do you--or does anyone else--think they're useful? Two
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While we cannot rule out that wave (B) has topped and catastrophic wave (C ) down has started, we believe what has just started Thursday is wave e-up of (E) up, the final rising leg for the rally from March 2009. If you are hoping for one more chance to raise cash before (C ) down gets a grip on this market and sends prices to at least the March 2009 lows, there is some hope. How high c-up takes prices is uncertain. This wave can truncate, meaning the highs are in. Prices fell decisively below the bottom boundary of Rising Bearish Wedges in the S&P 500 and NDX Wednesday, which nears watching. At the October 2007 top, we saw prices break below the bottom boundary of a similar Rising Bearish Wedge, then quickly reverse in a sharp rally for a few days, before t he relentless plunge through March 2009 took control. Once we see prices drop below the bottom boundary of the Ascending Expanding Wedge in the S&P 500, below 1,030, we would be convinced catastrophic wave (C ) down has started.
Lest anyone think Goldman Sucks isn't manipulating the market, as a follow-up to what I posted yesterday about GS tanking the indexes on 10/28 with a rumor that the GDP would miss, RobotTrader wrote about this in today's ZH. Two
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Another Goldman Sachs "PigMan Shakeout"
Submitted by RobotTrader on 10/29/2009 15:21 -0500
Mark the last 3 days down. Yet another classic. Goldman lowballs the GDP and panicked deflationists sell anything and everything "risk" related and pile into dollars and Treasuries. Then the "inflated" GDP is released, and suddenly risk assets of every race, gender, stripe, color, and ethnic origin are once again embraced.
Just picture the GS Prop Traders like wild boars on the NYSE trading floor running over everybody, thrashing about, deliberately creating chaos, devouring its biggest clients.
Its all part of the "Wash, Rinse, Repeat" cycle of ever decreasing interest rates used to finance our ongoing deficits during heavy weeks on the auction cycle. Then when new bonds are floated off without a hitch, its back to chasing stocks, junk bonds, commodities, crack-addled hookers, and booze.
Of course, Goldman makes at least $100 million per day on these turn days, so $300 million for 3 days will be more than enough to add to the bonus pile to be doled out at year end.
Looks like on virtually every index, the 50-day was cracked and retaken in a span of 24 hours...
you, I agree, and my "true strength indicator" shows the rally has lost a LOT of strength. It's just window dressing time tomorrow. Looks like we'll drop in the morning and "miraculously" recover into the close. My charts think down next week. But that may lead to yet another rally starting mid-month into Thanksgiving. Just my best guess. Two
They got the bears all excited thinking the big C-wave down had started. Shorts keep fueling this rally. One of these days, however, .... Two
Exactly. I think the NDX goes up but never exceeds the closes on 10/22 or 10/23. Two
Hey, spdpro. Some thoughts by Ty Durden on the "last POMO." Two
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The last POMO is now history, with $1.936 billion prudently injected by the Fed to liquefy the market and make sure that the big GDP surprise beat (thank you Goldman) cements the President's efforts to pronounce on national TV that the recession is over later today (whether consumers are expected to max out their credit cards in order to be eligible to vote in the next presidential elections is as of yet unknown). Virtually the entire amount of money released by the Fed was used to purchase 2009 auctioned 5 Year Treasurys.
Fox, his wife was on the Enron Board of Directors and supposedly oversaw the company's financial reporting (lol) at a yearly salary of $325K. I met her and Phil many years ago at a business dinner in Dallas. What I most remember about him was his SEG and sweaty palm. And she never stopped talking...without saying anything. Two
Very good, Fox! Here's a "letter" Paulson sent out to millions of Americans when he was Treasury secy. Two
=======================
Your Urgent Help Needed
Dear American:
I need to ask you to support an urgent secret business relationship with a
transfer of funds of great magnitude.
I am Ministry of the Treasury of the Republic of America. My country has had
crisis that has caused the need for large transfer of funds of 800 billion
dollars US. If you would assist me in this transfer, it would be most
profitable to you.
I am working with Mr. Phil Gram, lobbyist for UBS, who will be my
replacement as Ministry of the Treasury in January. As a Senator, you may
know him as the leader of the American banking deregulation movement in the
1990s. This transactin is 100% safe.
This is a matter of great urgency. We need a blank check. We need the funds
as quickly as possible. We cannot directly transfer these funds in the names of our close friends because we are constantly under surveillance. My family lawyer advised me that I should look for a reliable and trustworthy person who will act as a next of kin so the funds can be transferred.
Please reply with all of your bank account, IRA and college fund account
numbers and those of your children and grandchildren to wallstreetbailout@treasury.gov so that we may transfer your commission for
this transaction. After I receive that information, I will respond with
detailed information about safeguards that will be used to protect the
funds.
Yours Faithfully Minister of Treasury Paulson
Well put. It all goes a lot higher than our elected officials. The "power elite" are international in scope and influence. Two