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The key is they are NOT recommending to buy or sell short to anyone including their subs (if any). Thin line between front running (illegal) vs profiting off of their BS thesis publicly.
Hearing GS is running the book for Revance offering ? :)
Valueengine Who ?
Dew,
I have following ELAN after their IPO to buy below $30 if possible. Stock is not budging and with their recent 2019 guidance, doubt it will show any weakness baring further market meltdown.
You indicated earlier you may be interested to take a position at right price; so would appreciate your thoughts.
T.I.A
I am at loss to see the reason for the co to project 2020 for FDA approval. With all the data out, even if they file NDA by 2Q19, we should get approval in 19. So why 2020 ?
Anyway does it take really 6 months just to file NDA ?
Dew,
From Fosun website: “As of the date hereof, there are no products containing DaxibotulinumtoxinA (a botulinum toxin type A) marketed within China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, the same below)”
Does above mean AGN are not marketing Botox in China yet ? Hard to imagine China is a nascent market given growing appetite for anything consumer related.
Anyway the fact Fosun went with RVNC tells me they view RT002 - long acting toxin as a well differentiated product enough to induce significant uptake & product success.
Absolutely agree. However the caveat being coverage clauses are often difficult even for experts to understand let alone the patients.
Movie John Q famously acted by Denzel Washington comes to mind.
Pathetic to see no support for the stock with all the good news. I would love to see folks kicking themselves next year end on not buying at these levels.
Talk about inefficient markets.
It’s mainly YE tax loss sales as many doubt they will file BLA prior to wash sale period ends in 2019. I think co said during 1st half of 2019.
Agree. <eom>
Not for US or ROW bio companies. Actually it is good step to protect IP rights or make China a fair player. Just look at CRISPR babies mess.
FWIW, I picked up more RVNC shares pre-market. Per Sakura 3 investigator, the duration effect is going to be huge selling point. IMO, the confirmation of duration in such large patient population emphatically attests RT002 differentiation over Botox or any other aesthetic products. Premium pricing likely.
Thanks for posting.
Interesting on their ‘closing remarks’ slide, they have mentioned having confidence on getting ‘6 months duration’ label.
May not be far fetched to expect that they may reiterate this data point for Sakura 3.
Funds apparently neither adding nor selling. So are the retails other than traders.
Safety data (hopefully with duration data point) should be a clearing event.
If any big Pharma wants to partner, Q1’19 would be the time. I really hope RVNC is not planning to commercialize on their own. No match for AGN’s brand & marketing muscle.
Thanks for the reference. Don’t have subscription to iHub yet; so couldn’t respond to your PM.
I am lot more confident now that for any noticeable duration increase, doubling or just increasing toxin dosage is not going to cut it. I think you pointed out as well that on the contrary, undesirable side effects (Ptosis) will only show up.
Old article but great scientific study on duration effect of RT002 (100-126% increase in duration) compared to Botox.
Characterization of diffusion and duration of action of a new botulinum toxin type A formulation
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0041010111001796
I see low 50’s as short term target. The significance of this deal has not fully sunk in with street analysts. Few PT increase have come in but I expect year end rally will take the stock much higher.
Great summary and agree with your analysis. ARNA has become a cash cow now with low double digit royalty stream inked. In all likelihood it will be acquired at some point for both additional 2 drugs in their pipeline as well as for its ‘discovery engine’ platform. CEO Munshi is a smart guy and I hope he stays at the helm for foreseeable future.
P.S I had good position (pared during recent market correction) but added back today. Plan to add more on any p/b
Dew, very nice gesture to extend and support such important research in sarcoma cancers. Not sure if your private foundation accepts public donation but I will be happy to send a check if my portfolio achieves significant capital gains. Riding a big bet on RVNC :)
This is where I don’t understand. If I were to be in top management, I would have either options or shares more valued than even an exec pay. So who cares about a job if you can walk away with millions upon a sale ?
Getting another gig shouldn’t be that hard, for someone who has been successful.
While nothing is 100% certain until we have hard empirical data, significant reduction in liver fat leads to stopping and potentially reverses fibrosis (due to regenerative properties of liver)
https://www.radiologyinfo.org/en/info.cfm?pg=fatty-liver-disease
My bet is VKTX drug will be successful in NASH too just as it showed stellar results albeit it’s P2 NAFLD
Will be interesting what next step co is going to take: P2b or P2/3 trial
Dew,
What do you think of PETQ ? Their model of pet clinics is unique and looks like fast growing business.
Still watching for good entry on ELAN but horse might have left the barn
T.I.A
Anybody have a guess as to when RVNC is going to PR long term safety data ? I know by EOY ‘18 but not sure Nov or Dec. T.I.A
Is RVNC management finally going o pony up some $ to buy some shares ? I am aware they did some token buys in the past but stock is at lows we haven’t seen for awhile.
Well said. FWIW, I added more today. It has partially derisked blockbuster drug with recent super data,
a second drug that can also be a blockbuster, and 2 early stage drugs all for under $1 billion EV.
this is why I keep buying on dips :)
Lol...well said.
Also to add if new CFO flips options as if there is no tomorrow, I will be really thinking hard on my position
Agree. Not only cancel the 10b5-1 plan but incentivize by giving options at higher prices. Lastly buy some shares open market as insiders did for SRPT
Dew, coming from you, that’s a big vote of confidence
Dew, I continue to consider access to the information posted & shares on this board a great privilege and so being thankful goes without my saying.
Situation like today or possibly more to come with IR going up, any particular bios (small/mid/large) folks are considering to add ?
I am heavily weighted on RVNC and recently adding to VKTX as well
To tempting and added RVNC today. Anybody else ?
Dew, I believe you mentioned that you would be interested to buy ELAN at right price. At $24 IPO debut, I am thinking of high 20’s. Any thoughts ? Appreciated. T.I.A
Looking at PPS, sounds like nothing exciting on today’s presentation ? Business usual ?
Wish they fill the CFO vacancy soon.
Agree VKTX data today showed dose dependent response with clean safety. Great potential to move the drug forward to next stage.
I expect some kind of partnership news as well.
Co with closing of $176M offering is now financial strong too.
CEO Lian did a pretty good presentation today. Worth listening IMO
Big disappointment over the years with the story started with Dr. R Sasisehakeran days with his pioneering work with sugar modifications.
Appreciate if anyone can chime in on whether upcoming safety data potentially could include any reiteration of RT002 duration effect as well. Not that it’s necessary but would be an icing. T.I.A
RVNC - weak tape. Anything to see ? Nope, move on..
Good note <EOM>
GS has meeting with RVNC on 9/20, I believe. So expecting some kind of analyst report soon after
High dose duration theory is fraught with risks that both AGN and RVNC are well aware off. All it takes is couple of pts developing ptosis and the provider reputation is screwed.
RVNC ran their not one but two P3 followed by ongoing long safety trials to prove their toxin riding on their propriety peptide is safer & duration longer. I believe RVNC peptide ensures right amount of toxin stays at the right spot for longer period of time.
Anyway, providers will prefer to use a FDA approved product than any ‘off the label’ especially IF RVNC chooses to get price competitive (from a premium pricing).
I see successful ENTA Hep-C investment scenario playing all over once more