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hdsstocks - Not sure if my timeline is accurate, but I believe that Rosen has to say by Friday if a settlement has been reached, one could not be reached, or they are still negotiating.
Based on what he says, I think a different clock would begin to tick.
If he says they have a settlement, then they will work out final details and begin voting process, with most likely TPS objecting or being included (that is an unknown at this time). Equity would be included at this point.
If they are still negotiating, the judge would then have to either extend it based on how long she thinks it would take, or simply ask Rosen how much more time he needs.
If they can't reach a settlement, they would start working towards the confirmation of 6.5, which I'm sure Rosen has a completed copy ready to go. EC would obviously object. I, honestly am confused about if there are enough differences in 6.5, if anyone else is allowed to object, based on provisions previousl discussed (EC objection was extended). Depositions and other fact finding would need to take place and everyting would be sorted out then, with either we end up with nothing if the judge totally loses her mind, or we turn the wheels again and have her deny it again and lather, rinse, and repeat for another year or so.
All this is with the caveat that IMO this case has had NOTHING go as it should.
based on language used in court, and the terminology of this board, we would be included in a 7.0, which would be a complete re-write to iclude equity, but not in a 6.5, which would be tweeking the POS that is out there now, which says equity not in the money.
I would hope that Susman is smart enough to file the objection on the 10th for 6.5. I would assume it can be withdrawn or is automatically withdrawn if version 7 comes into existence.
If Rosen had any leverage now, why would he not just say talks broke down and he is proceeding with 6.5 and have judge set deadlines and schedule hearings for confirmation instesd of delaying?
I don't see how a delay and then a breakdown make him look any better if this thing drags on or he loses big. I guess I see a small chance that if he somehow "saves" the agreement, he will come out looking better in the eyes of some. If Susman had nothing why would Rosen agree to anything.
Can Susman be asking for too much? I believe that is entirely possible and the next two weeks will be spend finding that median all can agree to.
Does anyone remember what date was decided for extending objections made by the EC? Was it July 10th? Was it to version 6, version 6.5 as it was on date of last hearing or version 6.5 as it will be presented on July 5th if needed?
WANG -- I feel that this will be a case of expediency and Willingham and SG know they have a winning case, but also know that Rosen still has the ability to drag this on, despite his "desire" to end it for the good of all. There is still long term value for Willingham, so I feel he is willing to take less now. I honestly have no idea about what fair value they would be willing to settle for now or if today, we find out they could not settle and things will continue for a long, long time.
Catz -- So does that mean they will not actually have have an asset sheet presented as part of the settlement, possibly to determine what all would be part of the new company? Or can they just agree to certain things and ignore the asset sheet?
I know I am going to regret this, but the way Fidelity restricts my trading, I can't put my shares up for what they will be worth, so I played around and the best I could do is offer 9999 of my shares for the bargain price of $10.00 per share!
Any one else having strange restrictions that force you to call the broker before you can make a high, high value trade?
So does winning the lottery, but someone seems to win at least every few weeks. Why not us. The DD done on this board and by others leads me to believe I can turn a profit on this after 3 years.
Does the mean they will be converted, or that they will receive a portion in addition to x% of face value?
There was no what can definitely be considered "bad news" for equity at the hearing today. Now we wait, let the market do what it will, hope for leaks and maybe some kind of statement from Susman (which I doubt). Willingham on the board is nice.
At this point can TPS raise an objection that would be solid enough to cause 7.0 (the one including equity) to not be confirmed?
what are the thoughts of that guy that just talked saying move ahead with the 6.5 plan and that it is confirmable? I think as long as that exists some will try to keep this down.
Maybe an attorney can speak if it is just status quo to mention both plans (6.5 and the new one including equity) will continue in parallel, just in case, or if Rosen is just trying to keep the price down. She better have lots of questions for him now!
It will take quite a little while for the markets to sort this out. I hope with EC on board, Rosen's words can't damage us today. Hope he goes through list of settled claims and releases, but think he will purposely be vague.
Other than for daytraders the charts haven't meant anything onthis stock for quite some time. Omnibus hearings, however, have been like clockwork. Looks like this will be another volatile day.
I agree that this will go lower. If nothing major is said at meeting one way or the other, we will fall back into same pattern until concrete news is published.
I have to believe BR can't have many tricks left. I would assume he is going to now be worried about his reputation and/or minimizing his damage so he eventually end up as counsel for JPM.
I hope Susman can get tomorrow's hearing postponed and not give BR a chance to open his mouth. Or can ILENES somehow keep BR from appearing????????????????????
I hope they already have not accepted an early one and are on the third or fourth offer already!
dshngmike1978 -- There have been a number of us, including myself (who enjoys reading more than posting) that have expressed our concerns about BR anr 3/12 repeating itself. Therein lies our speculation.
All we know is that certain aspects of this have been put on hold (depositions, objection for EC, etc) for a reason stated as negotiations. Obviously BR can pull the "negotiations broke down" sunt and possibly make some money for shorts yet again. What we don't know yet is what forcved BR into the negotiations.
If we ever find that out, that would help out cause. We may never find out, just that a deal was done and we get X per share, y per preferred and Z in new company. Most of us here got at least somewhat burned on 3/12 if not prior to BK and have either hopefully made some $ on the few up ticks between then and now or are holding to whatever end there is.
My sincere hope is that whatever Susman/Solomon have is enough to force BR to end this soon. That's what I am betting on at this point. Not adding, but holding 100,000 at average .13 and some of all preferred, down about 20% after yesterday. The way this case has gone, while I have hoped for agood outcome, I basically counted my money gone.
Most of us aren't pulling people in, just sharing some good news that actually helps us possibly see a light at the end of the tunnel. Many of us still believe that WAMU has illegally purchased, and have invested to see both finacial gain and justice done. Have you read the over 700 objections to the initial POR and the countless DD posted here over the past 2 1/2 years? There are many more bashers than pumpers. Most people pumping this "dead stock" are simply showing their believe that we will win the end, regardless of the sometimes entertaining values per share we see here. Most bashers are paid to be here. Why would anyone spend their time on a messsage board mocking and criticizing other peoples investments unless they are paid to do it. Those that own the stock are for the most part doing their DD to help solidify their decisions or help themselves to realize they may not have made the best investment choices. I am personally grateful and appreciative of those who share their DD with the rest of us.
AS I am typing this novel, I just had a thought that I would personally rather read a book by Kristen Grind about people like UZ, CATZ, Jest, MOrdicai and so many others, and those that go to the hearings and text or report and DanBB who spens his own money so we may all take part in the hearings of IMO great historical importance, than one about what led to the downfall of WAMU.
I fortunately have been blessed enough that I can make a decision to "let it ride" here and feel comfortable with it. I of course also treasure the comments of those who have experience and want to issue a caution to be realistic with our expectations, such as your well thought oout post appears to be.
Thanks for the correction!
Desperado -- I know it is not the exact same type of case, but I was trying to research what all is needed for exit financing. Is $100 million enough to do it, assuming we get at least some of the resources you mention in your post? I would think it is, but will Rosen somehow try to slow this down even further. I would like to think that he knows he will be returning some money to the estate, but as others have said nothing from him surprises me. I found the Delphi case and it seems very complicate to emerge from chapter 11. Does anyone have knwoledge of if they think we can be viable (or sold)?
A link to Delphi article about emerging from BK:
http://www.jonesday.com/files/Publication/3ad21f48-d795-4a97-85af-b1559db63517/Presentation/PublicationAttachment/4fb8ffd8-0c3e-4c0e-864b-0b6aded91835/CBall_NYLJ042408.pdf
Many of us have bad memories of March 12 (and over $10,000 reduction in my account). The hype was there, but Rosen royally scr*wed us and to this day many of think there are those that knew it would happen including the hedgies.
I will be much more comfortable once JMW signs off on something that is a win for us. Been holding for quite a while, so I'm here to the end.
What of Rosen now? How can he manipulate this to look like a win? I would have to assume there would be hidden assets thrown in. Now if we have a new company can we push for a shareholder vote for new BOD quickly? Also, do Solomon's numbers need to come out publicly as part of either the settlement or the formation of the new company?
U's up 37%! P's up 99%!
Any thoughts on the reorganized company? Will it be a full like WAMU or just some portion of a business, or do we negotiate with JPM to take it all?
I agree RDG013!
If this is true, do we then lose any leverage against hedgies? If that is the case, do we then have to fight JPM/FDIC/whoever outside of BK and as a new company with a new BOD hopefully, or is everything settled in BK and JPM ans shareholders, etc share in new company?
The speculations were wrong, not bad. I can't say how much anyone on this board has made or lost, but I agree that there seems to be a great amount of knowledge/experience. This is no oridnary case and the fact we have so much information that we are making better decisions thatn those that are assigned to do so. When I first strted investing, you just read the next day's paper to see how your stock was doing.
Common sense would indicate that we should make money on this stck if we bought in after the collapse, but with all the shady dealings of this case that no one would think could happen, who knows.
MY applause to Chiron and many others for all their DD.
alexander77 -- This question is to the whole board, but kind of relates to your discussion. Now that the case has gone on this long with countless tricks, stall tactics, etc., IMO we are nearing the end. The question is, now that the sides are sharing at least some of the valuation numbers, where do we go from here? If the numbers do not match, what gets decided and how? Does JMW decide which set of numbers are right? Is she qualified to do so?
Will both sides accuse each other if fabricating numbers, therefore, technically purgery? Or will they, as some have suggested settle, to keep the numbers hidden? If they don't settle, shouldn't we as shareholders be entitled to them, because JPM, etc, can use them to decide whether to buy or sell, whereas we cannot, or is JPM not condsidered a party that can see those types of documents, though at this point they are not sealed?
What would Rosen gain by asking for a side by side unless he seriously thought the numbers were close? From the little I gathered from the short time I could listen to the hearing, I didn't sense he was forced into anything. I don't trust him one bit. Did Nelson or Susman talk today?
UZ -- Does somewhere in the middle get this thing wrapped up with us somewhere in the money soon, IYO? Or is this just another step from Rosen to show how accomodating he is, while totalling fudging the facts? Example, if he meets PJS in the middle with some aspects of valuation, but gets the taxes, etc thrown out of equity, can we still lose
If they are going after Lenny Dykstra how is Dimon not in jail right now?
http://eye-on-baseball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/28551226
I actually got my materials today. The majority of my funds are in a retirement account. Is there a consensus on granting the releases?
I have not received my materials for voting the preferred shares. Is there anyone else who has not received theirs? Thanks.
Don -- why would Rosen ever settle at this point? He knows he has JMW where he wants her. This is one of those deals, IMO where EC has to prove guilt, not BR prove innocence. I didn't always think this way, but I am thinking unless something forces her hand, she will end this thing.
Strike -- What are you doing about the releases? Opting in or out or neither?
Sure hope Hochberg is not chosen as mediator :}
Looks like a great deal of this billing was the cost of the other billing preparation and dealing with objections to the report.
So if I am getting this right, Hochburg charges several million dollars for a lousy report that is thrown out and several hundred thousand more just to wrap it all up?
I defintely should have been a lawywer.
So why is the FDIC suing Killinger and the others? Don't they risk other stuff coming out as part of this lawsuit?
Jest -- If the danger of total collapse for the shorties, why don't they cover some along the way, take profits (although less than they have now, they would still as you state make a grat deal of money) and move on?
For the board-- Doe snayone know if Susman and team are looking into this type of shorting in addition to the stuff that has already been argued in court and EC been granted discovery?