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I greatly appreciate your analysis of NGHTs stock and filings. I am long NGHT and currently about 25 % in the green as of Fridays massive run up.
I do think that your read on NGHTs Sec filings are in fact correct and that the .05 earnings are based on retirement of pre-merger debt at favorable terms, and that booking such as earnings is a onetime event.
Its nice to be up 25 % and I don’t think I could borrow the shares from my broker to go short anyway as Etrade has a pretty restrictive short list.
The other problem with shorting NGHT would be that the most I can make going down is a 100 % profit vs a theoretically unlimited profit going up.
I also believe that NGHTs share price run up is based on stock promotions by shareholders other than NGHTs management team.
That being said Wall Street currently is putting a 3 million dollar value on a company that leases a bar, for 350,000 a year, and owns 2 outdoor festivals that may or may not be profitable. I just love it !!!!!
Best of luck to all involved.
Where is Sparky ???? Did he get banned and if he did for what ???
Excellent analysis and quite irrefutable as well.
One of the main points that Ive been curious about was NGHTs willingness to assume the pre merger debts that were on the books and why they would pick this particular shell to merge with, giving the fact that they were assuming these debts.
Your spot on here and I thank you for your work.
EDM shows are experiencing great growth for sure, it reminds me of the days of Disco as Im old enough to have experienced that.
Ive been involved in Concert Promotions for over 10 years and I can tell you first hand that they are tricky ventures. When they are successful it can rain money but they can easily loose money as well
At the end of the day NGHT owns a bar that holds dance music events and they produce 2 fairly large festivals.
They do not own the venues for the festivals which will greatly impact their bottom line depending on how well they negotiate there venue fees.
The shows at Stereo Live run the gamut from well known acts that are usually booked tru SFXE’s operating entity Disco Donnie Presents (more fees and a smaller piece of the pie for nght) to local acts that they book them selves.
Its 355 pm on Saturday and their show tonight, mostly local talent is not sold out as I just checked and was able to buy 4 tickets.
The cover is 10 to 15 dollars and a good many folks are getting in for free by being on the advance list.
These kids are not big spenders. NGHTs own demographics that were filed with the FCC shows that there target audience makes less than $50,000 a year in income.
For the most part EDM kids do Molly that the buy from there own dealers before the show and they consume bottled water.
They are not going to get rich tonight, they probably will get laid and have a great time and that’s fine as those are the perks in this business.
NGHTS earnings growth, if any, has to come from expanding their outdoor festivals and growing them into well known events with 20,000 pluss in attendance.
If the can do this then money will rain. I dont think for a second that serious earnings will be coming from Stereo Live's operations.
Ive read the same, Im curious as to if this represents a lease or a real estate purchase and if it does what are the terms of the mortgage. I think Ill try to do a title or tax records search on the Richmond Rd address to find out.
I wish all investors well, my interest in this is byonde just being a shareholder its really to see how the reverse meger route works out for the NGHT management team I hope that they become profitable.
Thw recent price run up on Friday looks like a paid promotion to me. Its tempting to sell but Im going to hold tru the first quarter.
Pump and Dump Promotions are a hell of a drug. But Im likening it.
Exactly up 51 % in one day !!!!
Actually (lol) this is a great exercise to see if a potentially growing company can overcome there toxic financing and wind out on top.
I greatly appreciate your analysis of NGHTS financing arrangements as I have been dissecting their FCC fillings myself.
Do you know hwat they paid the accusition corp for the reverse merger, what the debt that they assumed after the merger was, and what the public float after the merger was.
One thing this deal shows is that with a relativity small amount of money they were able to take a very small business public and obtain
over a million dollar in financing in short order.
Their business plan is sound and they are in the right segment of the music business.
I predict that they will in fact overcome their toxic debt and pull this off.
Another point that investors should consider is that the warrant holders will more than likely under go another round of stock pumping. If NGHT shows a 4th quarter profit , which is likely, then it would be a perfect time to do so.
If and hen they pump it back to double didgets is when Ill be selling for a over 100% profit.
Your best post yet, it really lays things out in a much more concise way than I could have. Your analysis is also my basic understanding from reading their FCC filings.
Rebuttal Sparkey ???
Just hold them thru first quarter 2014. Well know by then if these guys can make money or not. I would not double down thats for sure.
Your best post yet Sparky, if their debts are paid up and they need no additional financing then it has to be uphill from here.
As Ive said before Im long NGHT and SFXE.
I really want NGHT to preform on it own without OTC promotions. If it can then Im suggesting to the Board of Our Venue that we follow NGHT and go public ourselves.
We have real earning, O debt and serious properties but we have to see an OTC company that's in the music festival business succeed and obtain a proper price to earnings ratio first, and the only company that qualifies is NGHT.
Im long and strong with NGHT and will be holding my shares for the next three quarters no matter what. The NGHT story will play out by the end of the 2nd quarter 2014 and by then we will know if they are a success.
As we say in Yiddish Sparky "Fun dayn moyl in gots oyern"
From your mouth to Gods ears.
We are down 7% today.
I have no idea. I'm just saying that earnings is a much more reliable indicator of a company moving forward than facebook likes.
http://fiverr.com/gigs/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&search_in=everywhere&query=FACEBOOK+LIKES&x=3&y=10&jls_se99912_1_auto=1
They sell them on fiver all day long.
Sparky If we ever go public i want you pumping my stock for sure. Im long NGHT but my the vast majory of my EDM investment are in SFXE.
As for facebook likes there bs. I can and have bought thousands of Faced Book likes. They cost about 20 dollars per thousand.
Margins ? You have no idea what their margins are. Ive been involved in the Live Music business for over 10 years and it generally takes up to 3 years for a show like Wicked Oak to be profitable. It would not surprise me at all if they actually lost money over Halloween Weekend.
At this point NGHTs profits seen to be debt write downs not booked profits.
Unlimited market ? They are limited by Stereo Lives listed capacity although it seems that the Houston Fire Marshall has shut them down before for stretching their capacity boundary's.
They have so far only held shows in Texas and Oklahoma so their market is limited to Young Texans that like EDM music.
Houston is not Manhattan. Country music is the dominate music in Texas. We dont even have a county music radio channel in NYC where I live.
Im long and waiting to see if they can book real profits. If they can then Id say that buying in at .04 a share is a pretty good entry point.
Im patiently awaiting results but certainly not betting the farm on this.
Im up 26% with my SFXE investment and down 2.91 % in NGHT.
Show us some real profits boys its a sexxy industry with the right sizzel factor to make some real money but its going to take real profits not debt write downs and paid stock promotions to do it.
I decided to jump in yesterday at average pps of .0436 average.
A quarter or two should be enough time to tell if these guys are serious and if they are actually making money or just playing accounting musical chairs.
Im hearing that they re experiencing the usual growing pains that goes with learning to handle large crowds.
Too many people can sometimes be a bad thing if it overwhelms staff and infrastructure.
At the end of the day NGHT is down 60% since the start of 2013 and down 42% in the last month. If it can close above .055 I'm in.
Sparky Id be interested to knowq if nght owns the stereo live building and land, and if it mortgaged. Do you know ????
Sparky Id be interested to knowq if nght owns the stereo live building and land, and if it mortgaged. Do you know ????
This is where it gets really interesting, with the debt reduction and sold out shown this should skyrocket over the next quarter if these guys are serious and not booking proffits by skimming.
REALITY CHECK WARNING WARNING !!!!
Wall Street is not buying the hype !!!!
Its must be noted that NGHT has oteda net income of $2.6m. Out of the the 2.6 million, 1.9 million is a one time gain gain on re valuation of derivatives of $1.9m and a gain on debt settlement of $.9 million. Without these ont time accounting adjustments NGHT would have posted a HUGE net loss of over 2.5 million dollars on all those sold out concerts and shows
[img]www.mediabistro.com/10000words/files/2011/08/realitycheck.jpg
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Naturally that's what we want to see. They seem to be moving in the right direction with growth and debt reduction. Im rooting for these guys.
Im going to wait another quarter or two to see growth and to see if they have to use that credit line.
They are in the right market, EDM shows have good growth, as much as 40 % per year and they are operating a music venue in a major city. All very positive things.
The EDM festival that the Venue that I advise was the most successful first time show that we have ever had.
Im very intrigued with EDM and NGHT. I'm starting to think that these guys are in fact serious and that they will succeed.
Once they do then Ill be really interested to see if NGHT can mange to hold a stable valuation of their company.
.03 is actually a good entry point as NGHT is still along way from going broke. I would not do it myself but you s seem like high stakes gamblers that hold these shares for a week or or so and them dump them.
Ok, so NGHT owns Stereo Live LLC Long and ADYANTHAYA own 5 million shares or about 10 % of the company. Who is the big share holder out there ??? Where are the other 50 million shares that were issued,
And does Stereo Live LLC own the Real Estate at 6400 Richmond Ave.
Do you guys know what entity owns the Stereo Live Venue. Is it leased? Is it owned by NGHT ? Is it owned by Mike Long and SURAIN ADYANTHAYA personally. Finally is that property mortgaged.
They are partnered with DD Presents and SFXE on most of their shows.
In this arena SFXE is and will be the go to company to secure EDM artiest.
NGHT's completion is whom ever else offers kids from 18 to 30 alternative entertainment in the Texas Market, other clubs, rodeos, country music festivals or however else young Texans entertain them selves.
The real question is can NGHT pay the artiest (these guys are not cheap), pay SFXE their cut, pay the overhead and still make money.
Finding the answer to that question is why Im here on this board and observing this stock.
Time will tell, but we wont know anything until the next Audited Financial statement.
Proclaiming that your selling lots of tickets and have a great venue thru stock promotion companies and websites means nothing.
I've been involved behind the scenes in Large Music Festivals for over 10 years and Id say that over half of them in fact loose money.
The successful ones are spectacularly successful, literally raining money on the successful promoters.
It can sometimes take years for a Festival such as Something Wicked to make money. Sometimes as long as 5 years are spent building up a successful core audience.
Music Festivals are a rich manes game and its my wish that NGHT
is successful.
Thee next quarterly statement will give us the information that we need to know. Hopefully they fill it in a timely fashion with
CPA's that the investment community trust.
I meet with Donnie in New York in September, my group went to observe EZOO at Randals Island. He is a very competent executive for the SFXE team. We will likely have dealings with him in the future.
NGHT is not even remotely in the same league as SFXE. SFXE is setting up a monopoly of the Entire EDM Music Segment.
Donnie personally knows every major DJ out there and promotes them at clubs and festivals such as the ones NGHT promotes.
SFXE has a tight rein of these acts by controlling black out dates. They are in a position of granting or denying them the rights to play at these venues.
You want someone like Adventure Club, you very likely have to go threw SFXE and DD Presents to book them or you will be shut out.
Im hopeing that NGHT succeeds and is a huge money maker.Time will tell. SFXE is a no brainier, for me anyway.
I may take an entity public myself if NGHT can succeed but the price action and chart are keeping me away from NGHT until I see timely filed financials and positive earnings.
Do not get me wrong Im hopping that they can succeed threw real business growth and not Pump and Dump promotion.
Ive been watching NGHT for months, and Im long SFXE as Im bullish on
EDM music. Im also work on an executive level in the Live Music Business and have directly worked on an large scale EDM festival.
Believe me it is entirely possible to sell out a venue and loose money. NGHTS self serving PR releases mean nothing.
Im really rooting for this company to succeed for my own self serving reasons however until they can file timely financials that show real earnings I would not touch this with a 10 foot pole.
Live Music venues are awash in cash and it very easy to skim. Im not saying that the case here, as it would be short sited.
Guys show me your serious and show me the money. Im up almost 30 % with SFXE BTW.
CHYS image has been tainted by their association with HSOA and Stock lemons assault on HSOA’s honesty.
I really wonder how Troy over at C and b feels about now. He is due to have his holdings in CHYS dramatically increased in 2007 if CHYS is not selling at above $12 or share. Id say he must be wondering if he will ever be able to shell off 10 million or so shares given the light volume that CHYS enjoys. If CHYS gives him additional shares to make up for there poor price performance then it further dilutes our own holdings.
For what its worth I have a meeting with several partners over the next 3 days and the order of business is a reverse merger for my own company. I hope to have my own place here on Investors Hub during the next year. Good luck to all.
Some one bought 1 million shares of hsoa today. I stumbled into the trade as it was ongoing. I was too chicken to jump in however.
Did I call that mcad divergence right or what. I quote from my post of 9/11 “Chys is very oversold here and there is a great MCAD divergence at today’s close. I love trading MCAD divergences so I bought a lot more CHYS today. I am now in (dollar cost averaged) at 3.35 a share. This puppy is headed higher probably to 3.80 or so.”
What a gut wrenching stock to own. I guess my only consideration is that it must be even more perplexing for Troy Crochet the president of C and B who has lost well into the 8 figures at this point.
I put in a call to a close friend that knows Troy and they tell me he is busy flying his friends to the Bahamas in his newly acquired private jet and that he doesn’t have a care in the world as far as share price is concerned.
Chys is very oversold here and there is a great MCAD divergence at today’s close. I love trading MCAD divergences so I bought a lot more CHYS today. I am now in (dollar cost averaged) at 3.35 a share. This puppy is headed higher probably to 3.80 or so.
We shall overcome.
We have a vertical monopoly here. Onward and upward !!!!
Well I finally went long and at a good price 5.25. I have owed HSOA in the past but was not a shareholder today. As I have stated before I am in the disaster restoration business and have worked along beside C and B and Cotton during Hurricane Katrina and Rita. They are both very aggressive well run companies. They are head and shoulders above HSOA in branding and sales and CHYS management is head and shoulders above HSOA‘s as well or at least I think that they are. . In fact I had never even heard of HSOA until I got home from Katrina last December and it showed up on a stock screen. I have known about Cotton and C and B for years.
I did finally learn all about the C and B deal but not from Kim. I am convinced after analyzing it that CHYS could go to above 15 a share by the end of the ear because they have a price performance guarantee as part of the deal. They have used price performance guarantees as part of there other accusations and have met them.
Huston Texas id the home of every major restoration company in the Untied States including the largest Belfore and Paramount IRS . Huston has more water damage than any other city in America hence the proliferation of mega restoration companies. I maintain a presence in Huston myself.
Another interesting note is a guy named Mel Harris owns 6 % of CHYS. Mel is presently Chairman & CEO of Preferred Employers Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEGI). Preferred is a Managing General Agent for American International Group and writes workers compensation and property/liability insurance through safety group dividend programs for the fast food and convenience store industries.
He also serves as President of International Insurance Group, Inc. an insurance brokerage company located in Miami, Florida, and New York City and works in association with Kaye Insurance Associates, L.P.
Mel is a major producer for American International Group, the leading U.S.-Based international insurance organization and the nation's largest underwriter of commercial and industrial coverage’s. He maintains a very close working relationship with them and many other major carriers.
I would say that our C and B , Cotton Company will get the lion share of Insurance Restoration work that Mel’s companies give out.
We have a vertical monopoly here. Onward and upward !!!!
Im calling Kim to find out whats going on !!!!
HSOA and CHYS are pulverized on a day the street is up triple digits and HSOA announces rescored earnings!!! What’s up with that!!!!
HSOA up 15 % in after hours tradeing due to 300 % rise in earnings !!!!!
chart www.kimberleylloyd.com/images/left-portfolio.jpg /chart
www.kimberleylloyd.com/portfolio/fashion/fashion_21.jpg
The head of investor relations at Chys is a stone cold fox. I called the number in the press release and her sister at Chys gave me a telephone in Kansas City. An answering machine saying "hi its Kim I’m not here right now came on" . It sounded like she works out of her house or maybe her dorm room.
Kim Loyed, is according to her web site, a college student at the University of Kansas near Kansas City, "I am majoring in International Business because of my love of traveling and interest in different cultures. This stems from living in many different places in my life including Georgia and Arizona."
Her sister confirmed that she is in fact the Kimberly Loved who’s swimsuit pictures can be viewed here http://www.kimberleylloyd.com/portfolio.html.
I’m sure she knows all about the subtleties of the C and B deal.
CHYS,has been been Added To Naked Short List at BUYINS.NET as of today.