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Algernon just got some coverage from Equity Guru:
https://equity.guru/2020/06/25/algernon-pharmaceuticals-alg-c-gets-ethical-green-light-human-trials-covid-19-fighter-ifenprodil/
Here, I will give you my 5 minutes of DD on AGN's patent structure and business model..
Algernon's focus is to take genericized drugs that have never been approved in the U. S. or Europe, and find if they have efficacy in new diseases.
These drugs have never been used in the United States, so why find them elsewhere and bring them back?
Well, if you take a genericized drug that's used in the U. S. and you find a new use for it, you will come up against the potential for physicians to do what's known as "off label prescription writing". So, Algernon specifically looks for drugs that are either developed by either Japan or Russia, test them on animals for new diseases, finds a "signal", and then files new intellectual property. All of these drugs are off patent, but Algernon files new methods of use patents and files structure patents around that core compound. The other way of protection Algernon uses is through formulation, which is an additional layer.
I'm not sure what there isn't to understand here. That "post" you brought here is from a poster that is incapable of doing his/her our due diligence. I left StockHouse for this very reason (hardly any dd, mostly nonsense and stupid questions). This poster has stated many times that AGN lowered the pp price from .58 cents down to .35 cents (completely false) and nobody would call him on it. His DD is comprised of asking questions on StockHouse, alot of questions. That's just sad Imo.
AMG called this loser out many times for his ignorance, and the best bearinthewoods could come back with was poking fun at AMGs StockHouse name.
Ask yourself this, why is this poster so interested in Algernon if his/her opinion of the company that of a drugless scam?
He/she is either "Short" and trying to persuade nieve newcomers or HAS NO LIFE.
Algernon does have some real issues hiding in the shadows, and they're already paying the price for that, but their business model and patent process isn't one of them.
B. O. B.
Imo the only thing that can buck this historical manipulative trend is positive data points.
Maybe September?
Until then, penny flips between .10 & .30 cents.
JMO
B. O. B.
No news, sellers take over.
New, sellers take over.
Sigh..
B. O. B.
Great update. A very note worthy paragraph attached below..
"The Company currently has an approximate cash balance of CDN $7.5M. The Company believes the funds on hand will be sufficient to cover the costs of the company’s Phase 2 IPF and chronic cough study, the cost of supporting the investigator-led Phase 2 COVID study in South Korea and the multinational Phase 2b/3 COVID study, to their full conclusion, including all general operating expenses."
B. O. B.
Here's what I can't get my head around.. AGN submitted for ethics approval in Australia on May 15th, 40 days ago. In that 40 day period, we submitted to FDA and received approval, but still no update on Australia?
It's been 20 days with no solid news of any kind from the company. Since then, the stock has gone from .35 cad down to .19 cad. CM told us in the last webinar to start expecting a steady flow of news, hmm? Why so quiet?
Is this 2b/3 Trail a go regardless of Australia? They have been very good at controlling covid19. Is Novotech the reason Aus is included in this multinational trial? Are we waiting for Aus before updating the public markets as to the logistics of the 2b/3 trail?
Sorry for all the questions but in my dd I can't find any answers, maybe I'm overlooking something?
B. O. B.
Ads* (Twitter corrected)
P. R. O. O. F.
R. E. A. D.
B. E. F. O. R. E
P. O. S. T.
I before e, except..
Time fore bed.
B. O. B
Algernon boasting about their paid advertising on StockHouse via Twitter. Don't worry fellow bagholders, I'm keeping management in check..
This is just a silly post on Algernon's behalf Imo. I'm holding a large position in this company but my faith in Captain Chris is dwindling. AMG might just be right, he may just be incompetent. All hope is on ifenprodil, if we can ever start dosing, sigh...
BTW AMG, thanks my man for that "Good Will Hunting" excerpt, one of my all time favourites.
How do you like them apples?!
B. O. B
Looks like the selling has really dried up. AGNPF under .15 and AGN under .20 was a real gift. Trial for IPF to start end of June, let's hope we are still on track.
Have a great and safe weekend everyone.
B. O. B.
Excuse me for trying to use a light sense of humour..
Touchy are we?
Algernon is not going bankrupt in the near future, I'm comfortable buying down here.
Fundamentals mean nothing in the short run for penny stocks, some of the biggest scams on the otc/cse have been some of the best preforming stocks. But you are right, in the long run, cream always raises to the top.
How to use online investment forums to your advantage, ie StockHouse, CEO.CA, IHUB, reddit, Twitter.
When most "posters" are highly optimistic and making bold predictions on how high a stock price/market cap can go, ie "30 dolla", and "one billion mc", you are definitely near a TOP with that said investment.
Now, when most "posters" are highly pessimistic and making bold predictions on how low the price can go, ie "pump and dump!", and "going sub .10 cents" or "it's heading for zero! Scam! Scam!", you are definitely near the BOTTOM with that said investment.
With everything going on with Algernon atm, anything under .15 cents USD or .20 cents cad is a strong buy Imo.
"Contrarian" investing is the only thing that truly works. "Technical Analysis" is pseudo science (market astrology), and fundamental analysis is basically worthless in pennyland (one might argue its worthless in all markets now, as the FED artificially pumps). As for I, well, I'm not a very good contrarian. Most people aren't. It goes against our basic psychological instincts as human beings. As Warren famously stated, "buy when others are fearful, sell when others are greedy".
Will.
This has now got way oversold.. RSI is oversold right up to the daily timeframe. Trading way south of the 50 sma. As much as I'm cheesed at how AGN's price has performed the last 2 months, there is just no denying that this thing is due to bounce hard soon, whether it be a dead cat bounce or a trend reversal. Just bought 20k shares at .215 cad for a trade, wayyyyyy ooovvveeerrrr sssoollldddd!!!
Down 50% from the FDA "halted" news. The company has been very "silent" during this 2 week sell-off.. Didn't Chris M. finish the webinar in saying to start expecting a steady news flow to come in? Hmm.. Is Australia in or out Chris? Do we have an anticipated start date for the phase 2b/3 "holy grail" trial yet Chris? To my knowledge there has been zero covid19 patients dosed with Ifenprodil so far. This money spent on stock promotion is a joke, proven to be a waste of funds. If you we truly confident in the potential results of the company you were running, why would you even consider stock promotion? The market notices results, not paid advertising. I am still long here, but Chris, you need to prove to us that this just isn't another spring time pump n dump for Algernon.
Thanks.
There's no way Kal gets carried away in handcuffs, he's got friends in "the inside", the guy could literally get away with murder.
With Ifenprodil, this is what we are trying to prevent VV
The US has performed its first double lung transplant for lung damage caused by #COVID19. The recipient is a 20 yr old woman. She remains on a ventilator at this time. The damage inflicted by #SARSCoV2 is stunning. Via @nytimes https://t.co/SrJG56VOlR pic.twitter.com/sAAB0Z8V4W
— Tatiana Prowell, MD (@tmprowell) June 11, 2020
We are almost oversold on the daily,bounce inevitable. Sharp declines make for sharp turnarounds.
Chris Morneau did exert a lot of confidence in ifenprodil in that Proactive video. One must assume that he knows something more than we do, time will tell.
I apologize of the use of the word "stipulated", you are right, they haven't stipulated anything. I was merely trying to show that this date was stated over 1 month ago from the company. I would like to know as well, I will reach out to IR.
Look again, under "Study Type", very last bulletin...
This was stipulated in trialsbulletin a while back:
https://trialbulletin.com/lib/entry/ct-04382924
First Received: May 8, 2020 | Last Updated: May 11, 2020
Phase: Phase 2/Phase 3 | Start Date: July 2020
......
Overall Status: Not yet recruiting | Estimated Enrollment: 462
Study Primary Completion Date: January 2022
......
I have no idea where the "Jan 2020" completion date came from, I originally speculated it as just a cushion date as there is no real knowing when a trial will end before it even starts. With everything being fast-tracked, I can't see it taking that long. Also, we should know after the first 100 patients whether this drug has any therapeutic effects on covid19 positive patients, if so we move directly into a phase 3. We are going to know one way or another by fall. We just need that damn approval from Australia and the FDA.
Excellent update from the company. Very concise explanation from Chris about the recent PP and their clinical trials. This is a rare opportunity to receive drug data in a short time period, we should know by the fall. Bought more shares this morning.
If you believe in the company and the drug, this is a sweet buying opportunity, and if you don't, sell and move on.. No sense holding onto something you dislike. Today was payday, so I added a few more.
Well... We could always ask management about South Korea in the next webinar, I think they are going to have a hard time avoiding that question..
Just a thought
12 pm est, link below.
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/85268704950
Algernon CEO and CSO to be interviewed on Biopub June 1st. If you have questions for management you can direct them to YVR Trader through Twitter. Nice to see AGN being transparent, maybe we'll get an update on SK enrollment..
South Korea reports 79 new cases, most since April 5th.
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE: S.KOREA REPORTS 79 NEW CONFIRMED CASES, LARGEST NUMBER SINCE APR. 5
— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) May 28, 2020
I was referring to news releases from the company, not promoted news articles..
Well it's been 1 whole week without any news releases from the company, feels like an eternity! Guess we were spoiled with the weekly updates, as news is usually sparse with biotechs. I'm sure we will get some news next week, likely Tuesday or Wednesday, as Monday is a holiday in the US. I'm hoping the extra wait will bring an extra great update. Things to still look forward to: 1) FDA Ind application 2) Australia 2b/3 approval 3) Update on SK phase 2 trial 4) Anything that could come as a surprise, such as funding, news on other drugs AGN is working on, bad news, etc. GL and enjoy the weekend fellow inverters!
I apologize Newguy. I wouldn't read into that insignificant bid at .27, the price so far has held the .30s with some nice buying here in the afternoon. AGN released news last Friday, let's see if they do so again this Friday.. All good, nothing has fundamentally changed with this company as of yet, just the price lol
It means stop reading StockHouse garbage.
Hi AMG.
Great insight. I would assume the reason Algernon went with South Korea was the same reason they are going with Australia, that being their affiliation with Novotech. Novotech operates in Southeast Asia and is headquartered in Aussie land. If I remember right, they were already working with Novotech as CRO for IPF prior to Covid19, this is likely the reason they aren't trialing in Japan. The 2B/3 multinational trial for USA/CAN/AUS is set to start July 2020 as per outlined in the clinical trials guidance I posted 2 weeks ago. I would assume AGN is banking on being approved for all 3 before then. Also, we must not forget that Algernon starts a phase 2 trail in AUS late June for chronic cough. This story is literally going to take months to come to fruition, so if anyone is impatient and looking for a quick buck, I'd recommend going elsewhere. But if you have patience and believe in the science of Ifenprodil, you may just get rewarded for your wait. I myself will still be adding on dips as I did today. GL fellow investors.
This is the complete outline of the new phase 2b/3 trial to take place in Canada. The start date is set for July 2020 and has an estimated enrollment of 462. This study is to determine the clinical efficacy of Ifenprodil in the treatment of patients infected with COVID-19. It is an International study lead by Algernon with collaboration from Novotec. By the looks of it, this trial itinerary was processed today May 11. This is a news before the official news situation, meaning we should get a posted update from the company very soon. Please read the full itinerary posted on Clinicaltrials.gov. There is a lot of information there and I'm going to re-read again tonight. This is my first time posting on investorshub and I'm excited to discuss stocks in the future with all of you. If anyone is on fintwit, I'm @bettingonbayst. I hold a long position in AGN among others. This is a good speculative play and worth holding for months unless something fundamentally changes. Good luck everyone.
https://trialbulletin.com/lib/entry/ct-04382924