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Not sure what you mean.
20k options is 2m shares. And if it was a professional that’s not really how you’d look at it...I doubt that was a retail order.
Europe plus cash on hand plus some US sales. I think 3b, 650m, 1-2b is a proper evaluation right now.
I know direction because I see pricing. Also, tomorrow will say open interest, not direction of trades.
Issue is how long are you willing to wait? Market could easily be up 35% before we get a 35% BO.
Appeal 50% seems high.
I’m still holding as well, but always have to take a time factor into account. Also, on the 10% chance EU screws the pooch and no progress is made with generics, we could see $1 (not likely either, but you’re only factoring in upside catalysts).
Also, imo, BO would be $10-12 or so. Not sure your average buy but at this point that would be great for me
Someone sold 20k June $5 puts for 70c. That person is bullish!
Why? That was fast, this is a hold imo. Trading below cash and a bunch of potential catalysts
What’s the monetary upside on this FDA project? It is probably 0? I’m surprised the stock didn’t pop more, still trading below cash
One data point. I still think 100k is bade case and it could go higher
Sorry, is this a positive or negative?
Doesn’t make too much sense to have a judge decide such a technical ruling. May not even be her fault, just above her ability in the sciences.
Moreover, like I stated before, amarin should just agree to share high % of royalties with the generics for all non R-IT scripts. Even if they have to split 50% of revenues on 5-10% of sales, that would be a huge win. And i don’t think it will be 5-10% of total sales
If they can stop generics from selling until appeal, my point was they will only have to subsidize based on marine patent selling losses. Doesn’t matter if doctor would have prescribed generics for R-IT label if they are not allowed to sell. Amarin will only be liable for losses from the marine patients which isn’t terrible
Most of amarins sales will be under the R-IT label.
Remember when Hikma presented the poster saying they excepted sales to be 500m at the ACA? Maybe they were planning ahead for something like this. No way on the marine label would their sales be 500m. Amarin on marine sold 200m
Hahah you think this stuff is real? Have you ever invested in biotechs before? Amarin has had different forms of these for years, they are ambulance chasers.
Do you know anything about the company or are you just here to spread misinformation?
Making a lot of bullish assumptions...I think for best case scenario that is a little high but about right
The ruling came out the 30th though. How could he have sold shares on the 31st for 13.5? I don’t understand but if you can teach me your ways that would be awesome! Sell something 300% over trading price!
Ah understood. Thank you
What’s this?
IMO US will be GIA, as scrappy as possible, and Europe they will sell to highest bidder. Hopefully this doesn’t affect Europe price as much, although I’m sure full package adds most synergies.
Best case scenario GIA is still pretty similar, just much less likely. Much less. Many more hurdles in every aspect. I think if they play it well and are dealt some ok cards, amarin will still see 5-10b max US sales. Definitely not more otherwise there will be too much push into weakness. If they get there and pay generics a few hundred million-500m total, it may be able to work out. Grow the population and have a ripe market for generics to enter in 2030.
The downside is obviously almost 0 value for US now. We’ll see if a euro buyer would pay a dime on the dollar for US rights plus a fair price for EU. Then that could be interesting. But no one will be happy relative to price targets from Monday. That’s just a fact. No easy road for amarin or acquirer in US
In 2-3 weeks we’ll peak at 5k+ a day unfortunately. Hope everyone is staying safe
Yes, reimbursing got lost marine profits is small. Agree here. Like I said, amarin should offer the generics 70% of the profits from marine label sales. That’s like 5% of potential population.
They need to tie this up on marine label and sell the shit out of Vascepa to R-It label. Then we potentially lose no value in US, although BO would be tough. But could sell EU and push 10 years of exclusivity through injection and appeal. Sound like a plan team? Ok break!
It will take a decade for amarin to recoup costs if they go this route. The script growth wasn’t slow because of cost, it was slow because of something new. If they cut price by 40%, they would only have a revenue of 400m this year based on company projections. Then the advertising and community outreach to continually grow 50-80% per year would hugely eat into the costs of the company as margins would be slashed.
Much easier to be a generic as a multi drug company, this lawsuit is the real downside/caveat of being a one drug pony, and that’s what (in hindsight is obvious) kept the big boys away. Whether or not baker bro’s cashed out, they’re still up a bunch from their buys. Hopefully all on this board made a little money, and will make a little more if we get bought out for 12-15 bucks. I think that would be a painful win for us amarin longs, and a huge win for a BP
But will insurance be as generous covering off label? Isn’t it harder to get off label coverage?
Questions on insurance-
Anyone with trigs below 500 will need to get generics off label until 2030 right? Pancreatitis or trigs above 500 will be the only thing generics get on label right?
So as long as vascepa gets insurance coverage (preferred), shouldn’t it be tougher for docs to prescribe the generics to the bulk of the population? I mean in reality if we lose pre R-IT plus a little, we still have a huuuge population right?
If only fda, acc, nejm, and doctors were as easy to convince something is “obvious,” vascepa would have already been in every household.
It’s clear this was beyond the judges scientific ability, and she honestly, after hours of testimony, still thinks vascepa is fish oil that helps heart disease (and duh everyone knows that, and if not look at the Mori study which has very little to do with marine nor is it a study that would be fully accepted in science by any means). MTNB and ACST should pitch to this judge, as they have some great 2 week studies that make their stuff look amazing! Maybe once those companies flop we can bring those final results to the judge to point out these small trials do not necessarily indicate success for larger ones?
No idea HDG would know much better. Most likely if BB are out they also sold short enough so they will be flat when they exercise their options
I urge everyone to not get hopes up for 20+ per share. I’m not selling, but my target personally has been cut from 50-60 to 15-20 if we get bought. For your own sanity and finances, please don’t pray for 35+ anymore. We need to recoup, lock wounds, and salvage what we can. I think we can all still recoup our buys, even the ones who averaged up a bit after reduce it. But seeing the highs ever will not happen unless we miraculously win an appeal, which will take years.
Buying this level definitely makes sense, just please don’t get hopes up for 10b+ BO. Let’s hope management can get a decent multiple of whatever the PPS is at the time. I really hope we get 15-20 out of this
After hours volume was like 25m+. That’s not light at all. This (definitely below 10 is the new price)
We will know in a few days
The generics don’t care about marine. Amarin should give them 70% post cost pay for marine patents. Generics want to sell on the R-IT label. And that’s what’s being priced in- amarin gets fully squeezed out of US market for all cardio care (doctors will prescribe generics “off label” if they do the same thing as the label, I assume)
Money will keep the next Lipitor from saving millions of lives. Awesome
Nothing is for sure. And amarin does not have enough to settle. If they had 1-2b cash maybe. But at this point they can’t really raise money and don’t have enough cash.
We don’t know what opportunities they had, but they should have settled if it was ever offered. Hopefully it never leaks if they were offered any somewhat reasonable settlement or that’ll really suck.
Ugh I just wanted $35 a share...was so close after FDA...even selling covered calls this whole time never got me to my $35 a share sale number
I think at this price can’t sell. Europe is a free call on the stock. And maybe a US BO?
2b for all things in US (including patents valid and invalid, and supply of products, plants, etc), 650m cash, 2-3b Europe? That could still lead to a 15-16 BO. We still have sales in the US, and we’ll see now if management is effective in staving off comp. This is really their big test. Share price dropping on good news never bothered me before, we had value. Now they have to create/add value back, since we lost a crapload today.
I don’t think we get 8-12b. We’ve never traded above 10b, in the biggest bull market of all time and when we thought V had value in the US.
Now we should probably hope for 5-7b (I’d be very happy with the upper end!)
However, I don’t think appeal has very little chance. I think this appeal would have a decent chance. Also, because I don’t have a legal background, I still don’t understand how they aren’t enforcing R-IT, which was of course not obvious. Unlimited scientific and economic indicators pointing to that conclusion
No way BO is that high. $15 a share would be lucky imo
I’d guess 20-30m
JT lost like 100m on this decision
5 bil would see great it seems now. Our market cap is like 1.5b and no real opportunity in the US
Wait so amarin lost both? What? Didn’t even win one of them?
Do you even know what the dow is? I’ll give you a hint- any article referring to the Dow (or not referring to S&P or nasdaq complexes) really has very little merit. The dow is actually a very poor representation of “the market.” It’s 30 large companies. Look to the S&P for broad market health and Russell for small cap health.
I don’t even trade technicals, but this is a bear market rally. We haven’t even seen bankruptcies starting yet. Q2 and Q3 dividends are already projected to be cut a bunch, and we will have negative growth this year. Banks will start suffering. Dow does very little to encapsulate the whole story.