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Thanks, don't see enough of your fact based rationality on here lately HDG!
What is your estimate for peak sales potential and the timing of the ramp?
I used to think phyrr was smart presenting a contrarian voice to this overly positive board but its obvious by now, there is definitely some sort of bias/agenda, or he is just totally misguided. misguided how he thought REDUCE-IT would fail...
there is literally no chance FDA are going to force Amarin to do another trial. this is so far off the truth its actually laughable.
by the way, this work from Mason is truly outstanding:
http://events.medtelligence.net/2018/Nov11/Mason-Biologic-Basis-TGRL-Modulation.pdf
pg27 3rd line of charts is great have a look at how EPA is flat with regards to LDL
also all the slides comparing fish oils showing the number of pills required on pg 47
thanks bfost, was good to meet you and your son. Let's see if your $25 closing price is correct market open tomorrow. Actually mine is now adjusted, I will go a bit higher closer to $28-$30 but lets see.... hard to predict the stock price as ever :)
By the way for any haters (and there seem to be a few on social media) discussing Amarin's sponsorship of data etc, Deepak Bhatt spent a few minutes discussing all members of his committee, DSMB etc and particularly the independent biostatisticians & electrophysicists. I do not for one minute think the validity of this result is in any way compromised.
last post from me in Chicago attending an outstanding dinner event at the AHA.
Sharing the slides for you all here: events.medtelligence.net/HAHTG18f.html
I will try to quickly summarise. Got to the hotel and recognised Steve Nissen said "are you Steve?" he said yes excitedly and then jumped into the lift with me, I said "you coming to the dinner?" he said "what dinner? yes if there's free food there", then I said cheekily its about trigs and REDUCE-IT from your arch rival....Deepak haha.. then the other two people in the elevator looked at me funny and said loudly "yes we are going and smiled" and as I got out on only level 2, Steve upon finding out about what the event was, his body language changed and he waved his hand, declined and stepped back into the elevator! HAHA was so funny, you had to be there.
Then onto the event. It was such a great learning experience. See the slides again here:
events.medtelligence.net/HAHTG18f.html
1. Miller- doc on the main paper giving an introductory state of play
2. Nordestgaard - 40 yr veteran from Copenhagen explaining the science, history - such an insightful talk, fact is high trigs are a killer!
2. Mason - immaculate body of work studying EPA, OTC fish oils, oxidisation - never seen some of this data it was truly outstanding and if any doc prescribes OTC fish oils over V, they are truly idiotic.
last but not least Deepak Bhatt again expanding on R-IT, debunking usual myths around mineral oil etc and saying still a lot of data to be unpacked. not worried about AFIB due to small numbers but they are still going to isolate those who had higher AFIB to assess if it lead to stroke or not.
Overall this is a resounding home run. Anybody who tells you it isn't is either an idiot or has an agenda/vested interest elsewhere.
Anyway no more comments from me, I am out. But enjoy the slides!!
PS: There was food there Steve. You missed some of it and it was great. Even had some EPA..... It was SALMON of course!!!!!
nice work pax33, its funny as it seems there are many out there deliberately criticising and spreading fake news online. I can only tell you from my experience talking to doctors and also reps at the other booths at AHA it is very very obvious that there is a massive competitive dynamic in this industry and the big boys are severely challenged and need to do everything they can to denigrate V and play dirty tricks with the data. its so obvious now to all Phyrr should be included too, obviously paid/funded/interest is with a V competitor and has a vested interest elsewhere...
this is the cardiologist/journalist I sat next to when the data was released who said, 'REDUCE-IT is the biggest news since statins'
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/904742 John Mandrola
agree with him he is obviously a smart evidenced based doctor, cant say that much for those in the comments section though...
nice work as always avii, have come to love your annotated //// screenshots
agreed great post bogatie
A good summary bfost , great to meet you and your son. Finishing now the Vascepa session with Eliot Brinton .
not sure posted before but here is Bhatt's EU partner in crime:
What a great investor event. All the haters debunked. Mineral oil, please. Great to shake hands with one of the baker brothers hands and see his excitement about the data and also how he congratulated management. Doesn’t look like he is a seller that’s for sure. One interesting kernel: John Thero said they received 15,000 sales rep job applications for only 250 open positions ;)
Good luck phyr. You compounded one huge mistake for yet another.
tell me about it
agreed - BB is always wrong and tends to ridiculously exaggerate both the up and the down.
Sitting next to cardiologist who writes for medscape said he is most excited for reduce it data in this session , says if all data holds up it will be “the biggest thing since statins...4-5 absolute risk reduction is unheard of”
Wil come meet you guys too already met bfost and his son
a few points... Amarin booth salesmen dont know the data besides the topline, one I spoke to said its taking time to recruit the reps but having publication will help them.
interesting speaking to the sales people as well as the pharma d specialists at the regeneron, amgen and astrazeneca booth. If you want them to avoid your question, ask again who you are and where you are from, change their body language and avoid, evade and be visibly concerned by your questionsthen DONT ask them about PCSK9's EPANOVA and what they think of icosapent ethyl V :) haha
20 mins till session starts.... room filling up...
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2018/11/09/466649
BOOM $9BN potential per year alone in the USA assuming no price rises.
I am starting to believe JL and other super bullish price targets when I see articles like this....
True
I will try meet you there, listening to the guidelines now not a word about Vascepa it’s all about LDLDLDLDLDLDLDL
nice! dont know how you got in there...
I’m here too bfost lol how did you get to the Amarin booth thought those black curtains only come down at 11am?
Wow this place is busy!
yes bfost, great idea lets all meet up maybe after the late breaker sessions all finished?
agred, great post.
nice article thanks for posting TOSCA.
2 pills TTE for 1g per day?!
Informative as ever, thanks, was looking at no 2 of course
https://www.leggmason.com/content/dam/legg-mason/documents/en/product-literature/product-commentary/product-commentary-cbi-small-cap.pdf
ENJOY. Top position of fund is Amarin, nice write-up and holding into the AHA data...
thanks BB, very interesting find. I wonder how much of this Euglena algae they use to get EPA? I would guess not a lot most still comes from sardines...
seems this co Euglena listed in Japan is around $500m market cap, decent topline sales growth but no profits, hard to understand what portion is sold to make EPA and what is the balance used for.. seems there is a big market for this stuff whatever it does.... Sonam? Have you heard of Euglena?
I agree with the others your name and pic are attractive Sonam BUT bb is right your knowledge is too!
Think JL is already smitten :) lol
You mentioned algae.... Wondered if you or any others had heard or know about something called Euglena?
https://www.techinasia.com/talk/mitsuru-izumo-euglena-ipo
thoughts anyone?
Nice post kiwi
Great post, thanks.
second post even better than your first - totally concur.
great post. totally agree with all you have said!
pyr is always detailed in his research but really has blinkers on. very unfortunate for him.
hype is totally justified.. but agree still not as much as some super optimistic posters on here. time will tell.
Good question and I wonder this myself....yes its not pure EPA but there are some theories out there that also a 'free fatty acid' form like in STRENGTH is better absorbed in the body than an ethyl ester? Anyone looked at this, Sonam or JL?
Also maybe it was just a simple dose increase to 4g that did the trick. This is what the PI for ASCEND thought. Results of STRENGTH will be very very interesting. But I don't think it will matter commercially, AMRN are too far ahead now. Just need to get moving and selling after AHA!
Hahahaha lol
You proper funny TTE
lol BB's crazy theories, gone very silent.
I agree and think you bring up a good point.
I have a gut feeling the movement in trigs over this much larger sample size may not be as significant, similar to JELIS between treatment groups and perhaps that's a good thing as there is obviously more than just trig lowering going on.
have to say I agree with you .
Great thanks JL, yes definitely saw that gem found by TOSCA in the comments section. Loved it.
Just don't remember seeing anything attributable to Bhatt 'wait until you see the RRR' like you said...
don't stress if its too hard to find, I will just put it down to 'rational exuberance'. :)