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I am wondering if we aree looking at this from the wrong angle.
If someone were a large % owner of a public company what tax advantages could be embraced if you moved the stock off of a US over the counter exchange to a foreign exchange, say possibly AIM?
Are the rig crews 100% chinese?
Are the geologists 100% Chinese?
Are the geophysicists 100% chinese?
Are the mudmen 100% chinese?
No way possible to keep that info from SEO. No way no how.
Do you think that SEo does not know what is down there?
Of course he does, downplaying the results has no affect on what
SEO wants for his 55% of ERHE. And what he gets, we get.
bay
You do not really decide to produce condensate over gas or oil over condensate, the reservoir itself allows for a range of possibilities. and those can change and evolve as you move through the life of the reservoir.
It is called Z-Factor and to a certain extent you can cpontrol what comes to the surface by how you produce it.
You are pricing this gas at the NYSE.
Gas in Europe goes for about $9/decatherm.
That makes about 54/80
I think that is called a conumdrum[color=red][/color] - LOL
Kownski,
Would it be more fair to say that they are withholding the info and not really missleading us?
By this time even a layman should understand that some preliminary reservoir info could be released. For thenm to be withholding all information seems to be saying they are trying to put together sonme big deal. I can only speculate that there is an economic accumulation of hydrocarbons in the JDZ and we will know about it and make our own economic decisions after "they" decide to report the results.
And by the way JS's reporting is slanderous and I will be surprised if either Ledbetter or Netphe don't go after him. The man posts 24 hours a day on many sites and seems to be losing his grip on reality.
Bay
YOU are very correct. Thanks for your input.
Wouldn't that be divided by 720,000,000 shares?
Also known reserves valued at $8.50/Bbl (IMO).
Still comes to around $47 a share.
BWTHDIK...?
Bayfisher
well stated.
Tryoty,
Go take your prozac, you of all people should never cast stones when a stock owner takes umbrage with the actions of this executive group.
I will repeat myself, the timing for this CC was very very poorly thought out. All momentum was destroyed. Go look at the price this morning, that alone warrants my conclusion.
Do I think that this is permanent damage, no I do not. BUT, it does not mitigate the fact that if Peter is receiving counil from people who felt this was the proper time and way to hold a CC then he is getting very poor advice.
We will recover from this, the assets have not changed. Just my judgement as to the people who manage them.
bay
Emdyal,
I have never questioned the viability of the JDZ, just the appropriateness of this CC at this time.
bay
Tryoty,
tell me in what level were financials discussed.
And why wasn't that qualified up front.
Sorry Lughea you are wrong,
There was little or no discussion on current company financial position. everything was on the drilling and for them to not realize that, was a mistake. If the intention was to only talk about current company financials then that should have predicated any and all discussions, but it did not. Instead Peter starts talking, "4, 8, 12, 52 weeks as being his intent when he said weeks in his video". As the caller stated Peter was being facetious.
I am not disputing that the value is still there or even that they probably could not say anything about possible findings. What i am saying is that this CC was a mistake and a stupid one at that. If this is the council Peter is currently getting he should think again who he listens to.
Bay
Kobi,
This was a CC that should have never taken place. Not at this point in the drilling profile.
I want to make sure everyone understands I am still very positive about the prospectivity of the JDZ and the EEZ and feel eventually we will realize the value for which we have all been waiting.
BUT, this has got to be the most bone-headed CC an executive team has ever called. Not only that if you asked them to do any and every possible thing to step on any momentum that had been created over the last few weeks then you would have to say they hit it 100%. Come on guys are all of you suffering from 'Group-Think'?
Peter if this is the best that these guys are advising you then you need a new team. It is understood that there is a limited amount that you could say as you are not the managing partner on any of these exploratory wells, but since you could not say anything and you really had nothing to say in the first place, Why in the heck did you have this CC.
It could only go bad.
Dan for the most part I have always supported you, but today -YOU BLEW IT!
Bay
WHAT WAS THIS CC FOR?
THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE DID NOT WANT.
THEY ARE BEING OBTUSE AND DIFFICULT, EXACTLY OPPOSITE FROM PETER'S VIDEO MESSAGE.
I AM EXTREMELY DISSAPOINTED IN THE EXECUTIVE GROUP THIS MORNING.
ANY MOMENTUM WE CARRIED FROM YESTERDAY IS PROBABLY LOST.
BAY
Dickified - Pete I think you nailed that one!!
I think SSC should carry that handle as well.
Eat Like a Hippie,
To say you are FOS would be understating the obvious.
You said this stock moves on insider Trades? There is only one real insider and he owns 360 million shares of this stock, to date our average volume days over the last 4 weeks have been averaging about 300k in trades or less than 1/1200 of what SEO owns.
You are just another day trader trying to scare the lemmings and using a moniker like "Eat a Hippie" to cover your tracks.
A lot of us older posters are just waiting for info. No one is selling and certainly not insiders.
Now if I start to see trade days in the double digit millions of shares and the stock price dropping I may get concerned. Otherwise you just earned your self a big "IGNORE". so You better go start up a new ID and this time be a bit more creative. I have a suggestion for you 'Zalupa', that's Russian.
JMO
Bay Fisher
So they could run a completion string. They probably also ran packers, sub-surface safety valves, sleeves, and a lot more "high dollar" down-hole jewelry. They only run casing (which cannot be retrieved) if they feel they have something.
JMO
Bay Fisher
Thanks Mark,
Good to hear from you again. I was thinking you were having difficulty recovering from all the Halloween parties.
Mark it is getting very interesting. I am beginning to see that we will not have any info until SEO decides to sell. IMO the fact that we have been this long and are already three wells into the program with no info, tells me that any information determined from drilling is crucial to the on-going sell discussion. I can speculate that the lack of info bodes well for ERHC holders.
How can anyone put a timetable on when SEO will pull the trigger, no one knows. But I do feel that most people are underestimating the perceived value of future prospectivity.
IMHO
Bay
Hey MidTier,
Go eat some Bran Flakes and settle down. Remember the best line ever written on this board, "nobody knows nothing".
But we all have opinions and this board is the place to share them. I personally think, given all the external influences that $10/share is too low for a buy-out of this company.
But that is my opinion and a few others as well, I have a bit of history and experience in energy as well, but do I know it no I don't. I guess when this is all done and we all meet up in Vegas (not sure who originally suggested this but it is a hell of an idea), we can give each other the rub on who predicted what and when. But until that time unless you are personally attacked by another poster (IMO) we should all be able to post our prognostications without fear of reprisal.
JIMHO
BayFisher
Fish,
Condensate is a byproduct of Natural Gas. In the early days it was called Casing Head gas. And RTK is correct, you literally could pour it in your vehicle and burn it as gasoline. In time it would burn your valves but would work.
The old pumpers in East Texas would use it all the time.
Bay
Sneak you mean 1 MMcf as 1 mcf is only a thousand cubit feet
Red,
I agree with everything you say except one thing. The 250 bcf of gas in Bomu that you speak of (not sure where that # came from) is valuable, but it is not valuable as a marketable product in that amount and in that location. 250bcf is equivalent to about 250 million decatherms. As of 10 minutes ago the NY spot posting for next month was about $5.51/decatherm. The gas in the JDZ would have a much lower value due to the cost to get it to a viable market.
The real value of the gas in Bomu is as a gas-driver for producing oil from the other zones in the JDZ. It is my very un-expert opinion that there is a method to the drilling pattern and that the reason it took so long to start (beyond the obvious time it took to get deepwater rigs) drilling is the general partners got together and developed a strategic drilling plan. After all per this board this was one of them most seismic researched areas of all times. That could also be why any information coming out is so tight. There could be financial penalties if info leaks out and can be tied to a partner.
Now if they found 20 Bomu's then the gas would have a real value and you would see Shell or CVX come in and partner up with a LNG plant.
IMO,
BayFisher
PS: Mark sorry I did not call the other night, tied up with my 13 years old and football
Art,
With all repsect i may have been out of line I (for one) did not see anything relevant in Mark's last JDA update. A lot of you did (obviously) but i did not. I simply asked Mark if he could provide more. If he can't then he can't. So be it.
Byut at least tell us he is not able. People keep telling me to go back and do the numbers, that is exactly what i do for a living and I can't see anything new qualitative or quantitative in Mark's latest JDA report.
I feel that all of you are so afraid that if anyone pushes Mark's buttons he will go away and we won't get any info, that you immediately jump on anyone who asks Mark for more.
I am sorry I asked. But for the record will someone please "DO THE NUMBERS" for me, so this poor dumb Texan, that has been in this business all his life can finally see what everyone is telling him he should see?
Bayfisher
DG,
Go back to selling condo's to Blue hairs in Florida.
You are out of your league here.
Bayfisher
Hey DG,
Back off, there were no negative comments said about Mark or towards Mark. I appreciate what Mark does as much as anyone on this board. But as a member of this board I can also say what I want when I want. In my opinion, what Mark latest JDA update spoke to was not anywhere near what we had been expecting and brought very little new info to the table.
Bayfisher
Yes, I am saying that my "gut feel, for want of a more appropriate term" is that SEO is looking for $10MM for his 50% share of ERHC. how do I come up with that number? Certainly through no insider connections, but putting the pieces all together I feel that SEO thinks it is worth that (at least to the Chinese).
The intial survey estimates put as much as 14.4 billion barrels across Zones 1,2,3 & 4. ERHC has an average of 12.5% of those zones. If the initial surevey is close to correct that would mean that ERHC would have about 1.8 billion of recoverable oil (disregarding Gas and Gas Condensate). At a reserve figure of $8/Bbbl that would make ERHC worth approximately 14.4 Billion. When you add zones 5 & 6 and ERHC's rights to the EEZ, why would he not hope to get at least 10 billion for his share. SEO is no different than any of (except a lot smarter), he wants as much as he can get.
Then tell us that.
Ruby
Absolutely not. For the life of me I cannot see one piece of salient or topical info from Mark's latest JDA update. If I am missing something here please enlighten me.
We have been discussing Mark's next JDA update over the last week with Mark saying he needed just one more confirm. And when he provided one he told us simply more news next month.
Did you glean something more from this?
I am not trying to bash Mark, I like everyone here highly anticipate his Updates. But what he just sent us said (IMO) nothing.
Bayfisher
Then it would be helpful if Mark would tell us that.
Bayfisher
Rhodes,
Are you a sycophant?
Mark, does not need Kevlar in regards to me.
My questions were regarding any real knowledge.
I am not sure why Mark had to have 3 confirmations to tell us "more news at 10".
Bayfisher.
SSC,
It is not your opinion on what the take out price will be that I feel is bashing.
It is your conjecture that anyone whose price is different (specifically higher) that you imply that this poster has lost all credibility. I do not feel that you or I or anyone for that matter have enough knowledge to make that assumption.
Thank you for being forthright,
Bayfisher
Mark,
With all due respect, there was a big build up of what you could tell us and in the end not a lot of real information in your release.
Can you tell us anything more? Encouraging signs, how many feet of pay, Flow rates, choke sizes, Sinopec meetings?
Anything other than 30 more days and then news.
What does "increasingly positive and optimistic" mean exactly, in truth that sound like what the surgeon says to give the family some hope.
If you cannot say anything for fear of giving up your sources or for fear of SEC infractions at least tell us that.
You wrote earlier that you were waiting on a 3rd source for 100% confirmation. Did your 3rd source confirm that "things will crystalize by early to Mid November".
Mark, again you and I are from the same part of the cpounytry and I have always admired and repected you and some of your struggles with other posters on the board, BUT that was very weak and seemed to be an almost contrived post.
I am not trying to offend you just telling it like i SEE IT.
bAYFISHER
Thanks Vine,
It is a dream number, my point to SSC was that no one knows and for him to question everyones credibility was innappropriate. Because as J-Dub so adeqautely said, "No one knows nothing".
Thanks Vine,
It is a dream number, my point to SSC was that no one knows and for him to question everyones credibility was innappropriate. Because as J-Dub so adeqautely said, "No one knows nothing".