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OT:
Kermit- if that's all you require for your warm fuzzies then that's good for you. Perhaps that's why you're up 300% and I'm only up 20% ... I take it that maybe I need to be less discerning.
I have many other concerns outside the scope of their deal with CC. It is apparently those concerns that make many around here uncomfortable. I hope my concerns are addressed in the next Q.
I'm quite comfortable with us agreeing to disagree.
Sent - from their 2005 Annual Report:
We achieved these great results by delighting and engaging our customers, a core
value proposition we believe in deeply. We offer the broadest selection of movies,
an intuitive and personalized Web site, and a distribution system that enables delivery
in about one business day to the vast majority of our subscribers. Those attributes are
why we were independently ranked number one in online retail customer satisfaction
by ForeSee Results for the second consecutive year and why 95 percent of our
surveyed subscribers say they would recommend us to their friends. And they are
among the reasons our churn dropped to a record low 4.0 percent in the last quarter
of 2005. Consumers are signing up for and staying with Netflix.
If you're still with me here...
This is from an article at TMF in 2002:
But now we come to the first fundamental roadblock -- subscriber churn. On any given month, the company loses 7.2% of its users, on average. That's pathetic. I think college algebra comes with a higher retention rate. But what no one's saying is that for every customer exiting stage left, two new subscribers enter stage right. As bad as the turnover seems, the company still grew its user base in the third quarter by 11% sequentially. Netflix customers have more than doubled over the past year. If your gas tank leaks a drop of fuel for every two drops going in, trust me, you'll go places.
Exploring the churn rate more closely, we can't ignore the impact of free trials. The company had 708,000 paying subscribers at the end of last month. The other 5% consisted of newbies on 14-day trials. So if the introductory freebies last two weeks, it's safe to assume that about 10% of the users over the course of a full month are in for the free ride. That obviously skews the results, as these customers are less likely to stick around than a converted, paying believer. So, while I would love to see the churn rate improve, the end results don't justify the cynics' remarks. Netflix is growing, even if it means one step back for every two forward.
This is something GZFX will also have to deal with.
LOL...? I guess I missed the humor.
Right now I don't care. It will do what it will do. I'm waiting for something coherent to come from management.
If the price continues its downward trend it may become more appealing to jump back in, but the lack of any substantive reports from management and their behavior since December makes me uncomfortable jumping in at these prices right now.
This is more of a gamble than I'm willing to make, I've put my $$$ into a couple other safer bets for now. (ADBL & GW, if it matters).
I'm only up 20% for the past two years, so I'm no where near the 300% you're at. However, this is really my first foray into the OTC. Obviously I need more skoolin'- I should pay more attention to you... or BMI... not sure which at the moment.
OT:
I already did.
Agent-
Thanks for taking me entirely literally.
I don't see where people are saying
there will be jewel boxes in AAFES stores.
By "jewel boxes" I mean their "product" in the store, in whatever "package" it may be..
Show me where investors "always" disagree
with daytraders? Exageration maybe?
Please replace "always" with "frequently."
I always appreciate your forbearance.
OT: BINGO!
OT:
Agent - as usual, I do not entirely disagree with you.
We should be looking at what "the company" is doing ... what deals are on the horizon, what's cooking on the front burner, etc.
We should also be looking at how "the market" is reacting.
We all need to recognize the difference between LTBH investors and short-term investors and daytraders and all the combinations of the three.
LTBH investors are always gonna disagree with daytraders. BMI is daytrading this stock - apparently rather successfully. Some folks here can probably learn something from him.
His daytrading infuriates the LTBH investors.
Oh well... That's life.
How did you learn to invest?
I usually learn at least as much from my mistakes as I do from my successes.
There's been a pretty good balance in this forum - it's just lately that it's really getting to the point where a few have taken it to a personal level and it doesn't belong in here.
I think as this company matures more things are coming to light that the LTBH investors need to be very mindful of ... and some aren't liking what they see.
Most of us can sort the wheat from chaff just fine, and few of like the personal bashing that overtaken this forum recently.
Is it a fact that when (if) AAFES comes online there will be GZFX jewel boxes in 3100 stores?
How many times have we seen that?
Oh really...how many of those 3100 stores are Burger Kings or Barber Shops or drive thru gas stations or flower shops or Robin Hoods or Seattle's Best or furniture stores?
But that 3100 number continously pops up... as if it's "fact."
How many are "retail" or "convenience" where you'll actually FIND the jewel boxes... whenever?
Lots-O-People throw "facts" out there that differ from reality ... they're expressing their opinions.
Oh, okay.
It's alright for YOU to attempt to "influence" buyers and sellers but it's not okay for BMI?
I get it.
On the other hand, your posts are personal and directed at an individual in a negative fashion. That's clearly a violation of the TOS.
If you believe BMI is guilty of violating the TOS perhaps you should click the TOS button and let Matt and the Mods deal with him.
OT:
How does that align with the TOS?
# Messages posted by individuals may be misleading, deceptive, or in error. If you disagree with a posting, feel free to voice your opinion. It is the policy of iHub to allow our members to freely discuss issues in a free and open manner, and we will not take sides in disagreements or disputes involving our members, so don't try to bribe us. We do however want the conversations to stay civil, on topic, and insightful. They will be placed on a special archive for reference purposes. You may disagree about a topic or issue, but stay objective and do not turn it into a personality battle.
"I only post negatively about him because his arrogant transparency annoys me."
It is a violation of the TOS and it's getting old.
If you don't like what he says, address the issues not his motives or take it to PM.
OT:
Kermit - give it a rest.
You don't like BMI, you've made that clear... and you've made it personal.
We don't all feel the same way about him.
He has as much "right" to post here as you. If you don't like what he has to say, put him on ignore... or at least take your personal vendetta against him to the PM mode.
OT:
Sent - I guess it's hard to completely disagree with what you say, but on the other hand I think his posts are perhaps more just a glimpse inside the mind of an individual daytrader processing his thoughts publically. His bi-polar-like behavior (seems to me) to simply be the intellectual struggle he has in his own mind regarding what trade to do next. His posts do seem rather transparent to me... it's his "motivations" we disagree on. I take him at face value and don't fear what he has to say - you suspect him as devious and would prefer to gag him.
I appreciate hearing what he has to say ... not that I've made any trades based entirely on what he's said ... to be honest though, I would have done better to give him more heed earlier.
I don't know exactly what his "agenda" is, but like I've said before, I don't believe he's having any significant impact on the performance of this stock and I believe those suggesting he does are simply looking for an excuse for poor stock performance. This stock has sucked for a long time ... long before BMI began posting here. Do you think it will improve sooner if BMI shuts up?
Okay, before I get bashed (yeah right)... this COMPANY has some potential, perhaps great potential... but look at the 2 year chart for this STOCK and tell me the STOCK hasn't sucked for a long time (for anything other than some short term plays here and there).
I'd also venture to say there a minority here that don't like BMI and a significant silent majority that appreciate his participation. His membermarks are pretty fair, much better than most... but perhaps his detractors have marked him for some odd reason.
OT:
He states his opinion... makes it clear it's his opinion and gets ridiculed for stating it. The stock performance often bears out justification for his opinion. I do not believe he is manipulating the price of this stock by posting here.
There's nothing wrong with divergent opinions, often when "the facts" are fuzzy, opinions will diverge. Having an open discussion is good.
If you don't like his opinion, put him on ignore.
His detractors don't mind a gagged TA, it doesn't surprise me that they support gagging anyone/everyone that has an opinion at variance from their own.
What makes you think I haven't questioned his motives? Shame on you for thinking you know my thoughts.
One man's BS is another man's fertilizer.
OT:
Amen jrod. Batteries released. Fire at will.
I appreciate what BMI posts. I question more the motives of his his detractors than his. His approach to trading the OTC seems much more rational, void of the emotional hype.
JMO of course.
Typical.
Attack me and don't address the issue of bad management that steals investors' money.
I didn't bring up Enron or MCI WorldComm. It was used as a (not so) good example of how people gamble with Blue Chip stocks.
Apparently you disagree that management's honesty and integrity is an important factor when choosing to invest in a company's stock offering.
Make fun of me all you want... I'm sure it honors Him.
It's interesting that you'd bring up these two companies as examples of investment gambling.
Both of these companies stole their investors' money through lies and deceitful/unethical business practices. Was this a Freudian slip?
In reality - it's all about the management... can you trust them?
Think about the folks who lost their shirts in Enron or MCI Worldcom. They thought they were safe in Blue Chips and lost big time.
What amazes me is the power that some of you seem to believe that BMI has over the price of this stock.
I don't believe anything BMI posts has any effect on the market's decision what this stock is worth. Giving BMI (and this forum for that matter) that much power over the price of this stock is ludicrous.
I also believe that any time BMI wants to buy cheap shares, JF will be right there to sell him all he wants... real cheap.
The very idea that we shouldn't be paying attention to what Gameznflix management is doing is the real poison in here. Management is usually the single most important factor for any successful company. I've come to the conclusion that this management is laughing in the faces of the "investors".
Many of us have read BMI's "history" and we have a different opinion of him than you (ain't America great). My guess is he's not lost as much money for the "investors" here as those that continue to pump this stock in the light of what's been going on since December.
I have tremendous empathy for those of you that are seriously in the red right now. I've thrown away all I care to on this stock. I'm done with it until the management becomes much more open with their finances and their intentions for this stock. I think I know what they want to do with the company, but it appears that they're too willing to do it on the backs of the investors... all while they are personally rolling in the cash.
I'm 100% out today and will remain on the sidelines for awhile to see what happens but I'm not getting many warm fuzzies.
Good luck.
Actually there's much ado (rumor-mill blogging) about Amazon buying out Netflix... with the patent issues being the catalyst that makes acquiring Netflix a better option than competing with them.
Games seldom comes in any Netflix conversations (except here in iHub).
But you might increase your credibility if you provided the source of your stats.
OT: BMI - It's good to see you're still around. Thanks.
I was being a bit facetious...
I realize an increase in subs will increase revenue. I'm not quite on board with the idea that an affiliation with AAFES will instantly bring in hordes of bored-to-tears military members just waiting for an opportunity rent gamez, thereby suddenly putting GZFX into the black and manifesting itself in a 300%+ increase in share price affording JF the opportunity to blitz us into the AMEX.
I just don't understand all the hype behind the AAFES deal, that's all. I tend to believe that any announcement of this deal will simply be another ho-hum event. Most Americans have never heard of AAFES... or GZFX for that matter. I wonder where all the new money will come from that so many are expecting, real-soon-now.
More subs will take a long to turn into higher pps - if it does at all. There are many other factors that affect the share price.
I'm not in the Crow's Nest, I guess my horizon is much closer in than most.
Okey Doke - I was just curious if that was in fact the magic formula for success.
I didn't realize it was so simple.
The only factor for high pps is subs.
That's good to know. Easy to remember too.
Thanks.
I'm really curious about this... and have been ever since this AAFES deal began being so hyped.
Why do you (anyone/everyone) believe that an announcement that a deal has been struck with AAFES will have an immediate/big positive impact on the pps?
Outside of the military members, who really knows much of anything about AAFES that will cause any new money to just pour into this stock? I've met very few active military folks that actually invest in individual stocks, so for the most part count them out.
I'll give you that an affiliation with AAFES will probably have a positive impact on the subscriber base... over time, but I'm hard-pressed to understand why I should expect a significant rise in pps over this deal.
I don't know - I'm really not that familiar with the specifics of how GNF does their thing. On the surface, based on how the patent reads to me (and I'm not a lawyer) it appears that it'll be hard for anyone to not infringe. It almost reminds me of Apple's patent on the "look and feel" of their operating system (which failed to hold up in court).
I can make a WAG here and say I doubt it'll hold up, but it's anyone's guess right now. I think they'll have to prove their system is very "not obvious" which will probably be hard to do... but if you go back to 2000, maybe it wasn't so obvious. No one took Netflix real serious back then, thought they were crazy and BBI was the KING.
Their patent addresses 100 different points. Another issue may be the mailing envelopes, I don't know what GNF's look like or how they work.
NFLX had two patent applications (2000 and 2003), it appears the second application clarified the first. The first was granted in 2003, the second one (filed in 2003) was granted Tuesday, that's probably why the delay in their filing the lawsuit.
Whether or not it's frivilous remains to be seen... for now it's certainly an interesting legal patent argument for the lawyers to play with. It does seem like a stretch for it to be upheld... but if it is... and it appears NFLX has a pretty good argument, as far a being technically on the high ground.
I've been subscribing to Netflix for over a year.
GNF's service has been far from top-o-the-line (at least until recently). When I looked at GNF the selection of DVD's offered under the trial are pathetic and navigating their site sucks. Until the rollout with CC went through there was reason enough to wonder how long GNF would even be around... the only plan I would be interested in is the 6-out and I didn't want to make a long term committment with a company I was unsure about.
I'm considering moving to GNF-I just wish they'd open their selections up to the trial memberships so we can get a better look at their inventory.
Oh, the Netflix "recommendations" are hard to beat.You go through their inventory, rate films you seen in the past and based on your likes/dislikes they make recommendations of films (that you have not rated) that you may be interested in watching. It works quite well.
I also have a clear distinction between GNF as a company and GZFX as a stock. The company can be a blazing success and it's still possible for the stock to flop. As a company they've done little to woo me away from Netflix. I hold stock in both... and I have much more faith in NFLX stock than GZFX.
Here's what the Netflix queue looks like.
You can re-order the priorities by changing the number in the left column and updating the queue. Move to top and delete button are on the right.
FWIW--I don't watch movies...the stuff in my queue is what my kids have ordered.
Considering Netflix filed their first patent in 2000 and this latest patent was filed in 2003 and only recently approved I doubt the fear of lost market share today has anything to do with it.
Take a look at this document (dated 2003) commenting on the first filing:
http://msl1.mit.edu/furdlog/docs/nytimes/2003-06-26_nytimes_netflix_patent.pdf
If this goes to trial and the patent holds, this will be a windfall for Netflix. It can be a windfall (called royalties) even if it doesn't go to trial.
Don't think GZFX will be exempt if Netflix prevails over Blockbuster.
A lot of thought went into this patent. This will prove quite interesting.
Thank you. I so envy you smart people.
Analyzing John Fleming...
Oh for cryin' out loud... Poor John... spare me.
In a previous life he was supposedly a successful venture capitalist. He knew exactly what he was getting in to by going down the road he CHOSE to go down. He had other options, he made the bed he's layin' in.
He has to deal with flippers because that's the nature of the OTC... and he knew that too... which is probably why he has so little apparent regard for the stockholders and he continues to make the decisions he makes.
You guys are missing his point...
...which is, if you type in a search title the way most normal people type it in, the search comes up empty.
If the searches don't work well, people will get frustrated and likely look elsewhere.
As much as you may want to rag on Netflix's web site, it's pretty darned efficient and incredibly easy to hunt around on to find movies you may be interested in... it's their hallmark, and it's what GZFX is competing against.
This is about the first time I can recall YoungCEO ever saying anything negative about this company.
You guys eat your young... and that's what he gets for opening his mouth.
That's not true - Netflix allows you to select either the entire series ("Add All") or one disk at a time... each disk comes separately anyway.
My guess is he tried to flip with a market sale at open.
Bad idea... you can see why.
Use limit sales.
OT: Actually - I prefer this (#1) definition:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=stupid
------------------------
Posted by: kermit4karate
In reply to: TruthfullyTina who wrote msg# 134029
Date:3/29/2006 12:55:12 PM
Post #of 136004
Then, you have different values than I do. GLTY
-------------
Posted by: TruthfullyTina
In reply to: kermit4karate who wrote msg# 134021 Date:3/29/2006 12:51:23 PM
Post #of 134029
I like arrogant, opinionated, pr*cks with attitude problems. However, I don't see any of those descriptions in the definition of stupid:
stu·pid
Slow to learn or understand; obtuse.
Tending to make poor decisions or careless mistakes.
Marked by a lack of intelligence or care; foolish or careless: a stupid mistake.
Dazed, stunned, or stupefied.
Pointless; worthless: a stupid job
OT: tsk tsk tsk ... You jumped right on that ad hominem opportunity I freely gave you. It was an easy out, too bad you took it.
I may be stupid. You're predictably easy.
I can live with that.
Anyone not pumping GZFX is stupid. I've caught on.
I'm not a very smarht man...
{edit}- Okay LnS - I just saw your next post that addresses the topic... you redeemed yourself. Maybe you're not *so* easy.
Thanks.
In this we're on the same page:
Remember...we're gambling. NO GUARANTEES!!!
and... regarding this:
If "you" do not want to believe it, then what do you want from "us"? You need approval of your opinions?
Nope. Just wanting to make sure we all really do remember... with this penny, we're just gambling...
JF's dealing...
and he holds an unknown number of yet to be declared wild cards.
I'm the proud owner of my room-temp IQ opinions.
So, how many of y'all here are card carryin' MENSA members?
Can I touch yore robe?
Why must you take it to the extreme?
I said no such thing.
But can you, with any authority, tell us at what point they have stopped the dilution?
4,000,000,000?
6,000,000,000?
9,000,000,000?
Where have they drawn the line?
Do you know?
Please tell us.
LnS - you are almost correct. I have no "proof."
But I do have a "clue" - it lies in what JF did with the last A/S he had in his back pocket. To ignore his track record is being a bit short-sighted ... in my low IQ opinion of course.
You have no proof what they are actually using the money for, or what the payback will be from whatever they're using it for. You can only guess... just as I.
I disagree that CC's future solvency lies in any great degree to anything GZFX manages to do well, or not. I believe if CC has placed most of their eggs in the GZFX basket, they have erred big time.
I wouldn't suggest they poured 21,000,000,000 shares into the pool in the past week. Last time around it took them a couple months to pour a couple billion shares into the pool. I doubt much has changed, just the size of their reserve.
But, as usual, this is just my stupid opinion.
Xanadu - I apologize to you. I did not intend to say you were being deceitful... nor do I believe you are deceitful. I do not question your integrity.
Before Brytex jumps on board the "I've been offended bandwagon" let me say I considered using the word "ludicrous" instead of "deceitful" and now wish I had chosen to do so, as deceitful is the wrong word in the context I intended.
Comparing the dilution of NFLZ to GZFX is grapes/grapefruit.
Here's why:
With management well on its way to meeting and exceeding its goals, I easily see Netflix boasting a market cap of $3 billion by the end of 2006. I say easily because I arrive at this by applying a conservative 20 times exit multiple to $150 million of FCF in 2006 -- the middle of management's estimated range. Given a tendency to underpromise and over deliver, it is possible -- and perhaps even likely -- that the company will reach 5 million subscribers as early as 2005.
Moreover, the market will probably pay more than 20 times trailing FCF for a company growing at 50% year over year. If so, $3 billion in market cap will prove conservative. Either way, my valuation implies a 20% annualized return for the next two and a half years, even factoring in annual share dilution of 5%. I would be very happy with 20% annualized returns for the next two to three years with the possibility, or probability, of even higher returns.
http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2004/commentary04062801.htm
NFLX does not have the dilution track record anywhere near the proportion GZFX has.
In their filings NFLX made clear what the purpose of their A/S was ... by their actions so has GZFX ... and the purposes are far different. Suggesting this 21,000,000,000 A/S increase is a "poison pill" is deceitful at best. It has killed the potential value of this stock.
Of course... this is just my opinion... and I'm most dumb around here... I'd be lucky to have even a room-temperature IQ.