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Looks like Calgary is running 24/7 or will be!
https://careers.fuelcellenergy.com/search/
Canada rockin & Rollin
https://albertainnovates.ca/news/alberta-innovates-and-emissions-reduction-alberta-announce-new-hydrogen-funding/
From above link
https://www.eralberta.ca/funding-technology/accelerating-hydrogen-challenge/
Look at all these Funding Opportunities!!!
https://albertainnovates.ca/funding/
https://www.eralberta.ca/
We already have $6.8M award
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://investor.fce.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2022/Fuelcell-Energy-Project-Identified-for-Funding-From-Canadas-Clean-Resource-Innovation-Network-to-Design-Pilot-for-Clean-Carbon-Capture/default.aspx&ved=2ahUKEwiv-e37h-2FAxXzFVkFHRE1DQsQFnoECBUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3fDaUwm_XMci3wNlWSXToJ
Yes, that's why we get Generation revenue over $15M moving forward. What most don't know, or understand is that they have a significant history of write downs and losses for delays and projects they decided not to do because the financial profile no longer made sense. Those are all gone, with Toyota and Groton being a large part. Financials Will look much better strictly based on that. I recall Michael Bishop commenting that once those were all out of the way margins were going to come in over 40% on generation. Q2 + Q3 should garner much attention from investors and traders alike. You and I both know it's only going to take a little bit of momentum than who knows how far it goes or how quickly. Just assume about $1M revenue per year, per MW of generation. That's close enough that it's not worth trying to figure out the marginal difference. It will take about four quarters to figure out more accurately especially since generation is impacted by the service. So whenever they're doing service they will lose some of the generation but they will gain more than what they lost through service and license agreements to not only offset but give much greater revenue on similar margins.
C'mon $.96 do I hear $.96!! Powell has to give us something promising. At least suggesting rate cuts likely in the near future.
Yes I'm certain that was factored into his numbers and yes we are the only ones that can do trigeneration on the planet at this point. There's boatloads of water treatment plants out there We already have several installations and one new contract for such. That alone is a huge opportunity. We were not in the electrolyzer or SOFC market before that announcement. That brings a whole new ball game for us to start immediately getting contracts. Much easier to sell sub megawatt or one megawatt Then it is to sell multi-megawatt scale projects, without as much red tape also. We already have three contracts for the electrolyzers. And I expect that to increase yearly moving forward. Hence The increasing capex ramping up production in Canada from 4 megawatts to 40 megawatts, with the expressed possibility to increase to 80 megawatts. I'd like to hear their status on the 400 megawatt manufacturing facility they were previously planning in the United States. That may be the reason they actually needed cash recently. The original estimate was that they were going to need $250 million. They revised that either at the Q4 conference or Q1 conference stating they now only need $100 million. It's a huge savings, And they may have needed the cash to get the ball rolling on that.
There's no way more than one person that has no interest in a company and believes they are complete failure could spend as much time on a message board posting as some I've seen historically. I've blocked them all because they waste time & space. I'm thinking it's 1 maybe 2 individuals on all boards. it's shocking that one person can waste so much time talking nonsense speaking so negatively on a social media platform about a company they supposedly believe should not exist and has no future. So, there's absolutely no way there are three, 4, 5 or more. They never once provided any factual information about why the company is not going to succeed. factual information. Not what somebody else wrote or analysts say. I can tell you they've increased recurring revenue from generation from approximately 7.5 million a year in 2019 to now approximately 63 million a year. I can tell you that they've signed more contracts in the last 6 months then they did in any previous 2 years. They also completed a project with the largest automobile manufacturer in the world. They signed yet another joint development agreement extension with questionably the most powerful company in the world which they've been working with for 10 years. They also were granted the rights to use FCE carbon capture technology developed independently and jointly with ExxonMobil with other partners to develop or install commercially. Bashers repeatedly said they gave away their technology but the new joint development agreement clearly says they are 100% inaccurate. these are facts not opinion. They have the most affordable carbon capture method on the planet, it will prove efficiency at Porthos just like they already have in the lab. it's the most affordable option because it actually creates energy rather than being parasitic like other methods. They were also dead wrong about carbon capture being a failure Carbon capture is now the primary focus globally to address climate change. That's globally. They may want to get some help looking that up and figuring out the definition. within the last 6 months they have also gone 100% operational with a project for the US Navy & the Department of defense. They began commercial operations with 2 separate projects in their home state, 1 which is the 2nd largest (Only to FCE Bridgeport project) in the US.
+++ updates coming from the following within the next 9 months:
1) South Korea, big contracts incoming
2) Canadian Carbon Capture contract incoming
3) Navajo Nation contract incoming
4) MHB contract incoming, all by end of January!!
Q2, Q3, Q4 to average over $40M each
Stated May 1, 2024! Take that and store it in a safe place so you can plan to throw it back at me. I am!!
IMO Volume is back to reality because the shorts are now back to reality, I believe realizing there's way too much support under 90 cents. Although I would love to see us trade over 20 million shares every day, seems not likely right now. Can't wait to see what happens after the Fed speak today. But looking at support Friday to Monday to Tuesday to Wednesday so far, it certainly looks like we're headed back over $1 quickly. Favorable fed speak would be wonderful and may actually allow this thing to run, get a bit of a squeeze, and get to new 52 week highs with a good earnings report in early June. That's not asking a whole lot. I can easily see this ranging between $1.50-$2.50 after a nice run, then breaking loose on ++ fed speak and ++ Q3. Hopefully June-September bring an entirely new/old world to life. Especially with a big contract in SK which I do expect this fiscal year, Hopefully sooner rather than later.
If we think realistically, 24 might be a challenge for revenue growth given Q1. Averaging $130M in 22+23 I believe. They need to average $40M per Q for the remainder of 24 just to beat 2022+23. That's feasible and I believe they will, but 40% increase YOY in 24 would be over $56M perQ average Q2, Q3, + Q4. That's iffy. S&L is supposed to kick in Q2 or Q3 but not a ton. So I'm a bit confused about any substantial beat for the year. But, extrapolate Few's numbers we get 130% in 2 years and 670% in 7 years. That's just under 52% Annual growth through 25 but under 40% through 2030, which is largely why I believe we gut upward guidance no later than 2026
And if you extrapolate out Few's #s, it's $300M in 2025 and $1B in 2030, which I believe will be revised up by end of 24 or 2025 at the latest. SK is the key for 2025 and needs to happen by end of fiscal year. That would mostly be MCFC which I think has run rate of 40-45MW annually. If they get 100MW, which I expect +/- 20MW, they will need to ramp production at least a little, along with Cap Ex. Margins will be important, not sure what margins will be in restarting plants. I think they run 20-30%? Over all margins running at full capacity after expansion is supposed to be 40-50%. But I'm uncertain how the incentives and tax benefits will effect that. This is going to be growth and increased Cap Ex for such for quite some time. This company should grow at a high rate consistently for the next 10 years. Commercial carbon capture projects won't start rolling for at least 2 years, and they would coincide with PORTHOS going operational. Should have several decent contracts in place by end of 2026, operational by 2027-2028. Due to expanding and increasing Cap Ex, profit may not be attainable until 26 or 27 im thinking. I'm thinking $400-$500M revenue needed for profit during huge growth cycle. $1B for 2030 might be revised to $1.5-$2B by 2026
Initially $11.6M yes. If it were 100MW there's no way anyone could manipulate the SP below $1. Demonstration is to demonstrate affordability, durability, efficiency in a real life commercial setting.
Anxiously waiting for Q2 beat and what Analysts are predicting. Since they are all of very the place. There are only 2 variables on revenue So they should be close on that. However earnings should be improving substantially, Since all of the previous quarters have included losses related to delays and problems with Groton and Toyota which are no longer. Origins on service and license and generation which are going to be the consistent revenue moving forward are much better I believe over 40%. Earnings should be vastly improved. Revenue might not impress, But it will certainly handily beat Q1. Generation should be over $15M by itself.
I've read and posted research, these references are fairly accurate. The US target was under $40 per ton capture, FCE was under $33 per ton. FCE creates power adding to 500MW plant vs being parasitic.
No, those are the revenue categories for their backlog
$11.6M for the modules, install etc.
The unit will be attached to a large 500MW fossil fuels plant. But at scale means they are going to see what the capture rate is in real world situation for a commercial unit, hence 2.8. they previously identified the need to install 100MW on a 500MW Nat Gas unit to capture 90%, and would ultimately generate more power vs other options which would be parasitic and have much less power.
In May 2023, the Company entered into a second letter agreement with ExxonMobil Technology and Engineering Company (formerly known as ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company) (“EMTEC”), pursuant to which the parties agreed that the conditions to the Company’s agreement to invest in the future demonstration of the technology for capturing carbon at an ExxonMobil refinery located in Rotterdam, Netherlands (such demonstration, the “Rotterdam Project”) were met in April 2023 and, as a result, the Company will recognize $2.5 million of the $5.0 million milestone payment received in fiscal year 2022 under the Company’s Joint Development Agreement with EMTEC as revenue across future deliverables to EMTEC. Of this $2.5 million, the Company recognized revenue of $0.5 million through January 31, 2024. The other $2.5 million of the $5.0 million milestone payment received in fiscal year 2022 under the Company’s Joint Development Agreement with EMTEC was applied during fiscal year 2023 to discount EMTEC’s purchase of the Company’s fuel cell module and detailed engineering design for the Rotterdam Project.
On January 31, 2024, the Company received a purchase order valued at $11.6 million from Esso Nederland B.V. (“Esso”), an affiliate of Exxon Mobil Corporation and EMTEC, for fuel cell modules as well as engineering, procurement, fabrication, testing and delivery services required for the construction and implementation of the modular point source carbon capture pilot plant at the Esso Rotterdam Manufacturing Complex.
Remaining Performance Obligations
Remaining performance obligations are the aggregate amount of total contract transaction price that is unsatisfied or partially unsatisfied. As of January 31, 2024, the Company’s total remaining performance obligations were: $140.4 million for service agreements (expected to be recognized as revenue over approximately three to fifteen years which is based on the remaining term of the service agreements), $346.0 million for generation power purchase agreements (“PPAs”) (expected to be recognized as revenue over approximately nineteen to twenty years based on the PPA terms remaining), $18.3 million for Advanced Technologies contracts (expected to be recognized within approximately two years) and $0 for product purchase agreements.
I read it somewhere. I know construction has begun. As for 8K, I read something a while back about the agreement. The project was $11M and change I believe. Don't feel like searching right now, but I'm thinking it was 2.8MW and $11M was for installing the 1 unit. That was after FCE contributed $5M from part of the previous JDA towards the project. Might have been 10Q
And yes, certainly seems as though the recent strong show of support should stop shorts in their tracks pretty quickly.
My belief all along is that Exxon Mobil does not want to own a fuel cell company. Although they will obviously work out something favorable to them as far as carbon capture goes. I was delightfully surprised at the newest developments with fuel cell having free rein to work with whomever to develop or deploy the carbon capture technology. Canada is gung-ho, And there's plenty of other opportunities with existing partners or potentially new partners. Novel technology and game changer Are the terms that have been used numerous times by different people. I thought with Toyota involved Long Beach would be quicker and smoother, but that didn't matter. I'd like to think with Exxonmobil and the current sense of urgency to get CCUS rolling the Porthos project will at least be on schedule. JDA through 12/31/26 suggest to me, If everything is going as hoped, They will have a new commercialization agreement prior to the 31st of December. And finally at that point it will be something very big. FCEL is going to need time to ramp to maximum output of 200MW a year prior to that or they won't make any significant progress with installation for a couple years after the commercialization agreement. Language regarding ramping MCFC as needed has already begun in Q1 call.
Construction is underway to my knowledge, fairly certain. However, the project is not supposed to be operational until 2026, I believe they are shooting for spring. Let's just say summer 26. I'm also relatively certain they need testing after operational to validate capture and cost, as well as cell/membrane degradation. I don't think we have conclusive data until 2027. But I believe follow on orders or a buyout will be in process prior to any updates we get. They'll have a good idea after operational for 1 month, except for degradation over the longer term. Efficiency for the first 6 months & 1 year is far more important at this point than lasting 7+ years. They can compare all results from lab and real world and get a clearer picture if they are parallel.
Ya, problem is Rotterdam won't be operational until 26. Canada man that being operational before that
Certainly seems pretty strong at $.85-$.89 and if it stays that way tomorrow they should recognize it. Battle in that range of $.85-$.93. the volume speaking loudly. Tells me shorts are trying and there are too many buyers to allow it to go lower. Shame it's under $1 while doing so. Should have had this battle over $1.
It almost appears like people are waiting to dump a s*** ton of money on this. I'm starting to think more about a short squeeze then I was before. Would it be nice if Insiders were buying boatloads.
Volume surpassed 10 day average which is 3x typical volume over a 1-year period. Especially if you exclude those one-off days where we hit 50 million. Volume picks up every time it drops, suggesting buyers clearly see the value below $.90. I think plenty of people see value below $2, But they see a situation where it can't possibly go much lower in the '80s. That's certainly how it appears anyway. We are clearly going to need some news that will give energy to the green energy sector. If we maintain this kind of volume perhaps we will get a short squeeze, finally accepting it's not going lower. 1 can hope anyway.
Certainly appears to me like there is a pretty solid floor there where people have buy orders in preventing it from going any lower. I hope those buy orders don't dry up because I would hate to see it go any lower, Then it's just that much further to get back over $1. Last thing we need is this under a dollar for over 30 days. Then they would have to issue a non-compliance statement. And that would be completely ridiculous. All you have to do is look at two or three of the positive developments over the past couple months, But if you add all news Since October it's completely shocking to any rational mind the share price is below $1
Powell better be a good boy. Markets are tumbling. NO legitimate reason for FCE to be down, or be below $1 for that matter. Strictly manipulation, mostly related to the economy and interest rates. Any bad news about any of the fuel cell companies certainly contributed to that, including our weak revenue in Q1. But that's the only true concern about fuelcell this year. Tons of other positive things have offset that completely. Recent developments questioning the affordability of hydrogen will certainly impact fuel cells, But on the opposite end of that the increased push for carbon capture should help us.
Certainly appears like a lot of volume is coming in at support levels. Over 4M traded by 10:00 a.m. last look at the overall market it was getting beat down pretty bad today. Just took another peek and we're over 5 million shares by 6 minutes after 10:00. Volume definitely heavy today after a nice heavy day yesterday.
Bleak expectations in this Motley Fool article about Plug
https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/04/27/where-will-plug-power-stock-be-in-3-years/&ct=ga&cd=CAEYAioUMTc2NTIwMjU0NzU3MjIzNTUxNDMyGjNmNmMxMjhmMjMzNGE4Mjg6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw31UBR07O4Qh_1aS4njKvYA
Very interesting,! Exxonmobil collaboration to explore CCS in Malaysia!!
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/prasannavjoshi_ccs-energytransition-lowcarbon-ugcPost-7189660739417067520-QGV_?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
Very very interesting
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/clare-magee-55549a39_levelten-energy-launches-a-clean-energy-tax-activity-7190464396249239552-c_Po?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
From last week but obviously reiterating benefit for FCE
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.h2-view.com/story/us-epa-drops-hydrogen-from-power-sector-decarbonisation-plans/2109207.article/&ved=2ahUKEwitxKyZoOeFAxViVjUKHb8EDcIQFnoECBkQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2AgImWC-xDvpcDuEOiPUHk
Over 12.5 million shares traded before 11:00 a.m.. If volume maintains over 30 million shares a day average through May will be over $2 for sure. And I pulled into a job before I was able to finish this to see we are now up 8.5% on 20 million shares at noon. Definitely going to be over the 10-day average volume which is already substantially higher than the norm. TICK TOCK!!
Hey Johnny, nice post, here's Sierra Nevada brewery link but our newfound partnership with Chart Industries could be a great connection for just such a thing.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.reliableplant.com/Read/3019/sierra-nevada-energy-costs&ved=2ahUKEwi47sSvoeeFAxUVFVkFHdFhC3MQFnoECBIQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1Px3C_dgFUEG-vdmfV3mgt
Brewery with Chart Industries? Partners of FCE
https://www.probrewer.com/sustainability/learning-more-about-co2-recapturing-technology-with-lindsey-cole-at-fuelcell-energy/
Post below from Johnny Hydrogen
FCEL opporunities in Taiwan
There will be a new president who takes office next month. He claims that he will support H2 and carbon capture - rather than renewables and nuclear.
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/04/23/2003816816
Also, here is a story about Heineken brewery setting up manufacturing in Taiwan. They claim they will go net-zero. And Heineken has 160 plants worldwide. I can't remember the details but I know tha FCEL has business at an existing brewery somewhere. I can't recall the specifics but apparently the nature of the brewing and the byproducts lends itself to FCEL's fuel cells.
Will FCEL get in on this? Probably not ........
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2024/04/29/2003817085
This has simply been long-term manipulation of all the fuel cell stocks along with other companies By the institutions that continuously do such. The only justification for it is that they know they can do it. Which is exactly why the meme stocks happened. Just like there was no justification for the stock to go to $29 without anything significant happening with the company or anything significant happening for fuel cell stocks in general. It went to 29 because people with money wanted it to. Although I don't think it will go up $1,400% in 3 months like you did before, I do believe it will easily go up more than $1,400% within a 12-month period. And from these levels, it could actually go up a thousand percent within a few months and up over 2,000% within a year. The simple facts are, This company has been working closely with the powers to be internationally for many years. Our long-term partnerships alliances and experience with the Department of Energy, Sheffield University, Department of defense, The likes of ExxonMobil Toyota and Drax, combined with the many new memorandums of understanding or contracts with IBM, TuNur, Oando, MHB, and the list goes on,. Continuously growing momentum and monetary policy support for all of our technologies specifically, would merit that type of growth already. Simply looking at the developments from October into April are sufficient for the stock to go up 100 to 200% without any other positive developments. Unless people think interest rates are going up over the next year starting in the near future, or there's going to be an abrupt about face with interest globally in hydrogen, fuel cells, and carbon capture, Then anyone knowing this company's history and their technology has to understand the next one to two years are definitely going to be prosperous for investors. This is simply people gambling on a daily basis. The good thing is when it's obvious it's time to run it's going to do just that. And that will happen at some point very likely this year, especially if we get any favorable policy decisions, or any favorable awards, and Q2 and Q3 end up as I expect. 23 is released early September. That's just over 4 months. 200% minimum - 1,000% from here in that time period in my opinion. 1,000% could simply be the entire sector gaining momentum. We've already had enough news for the company to run a couple hundred percent since October, and instead it was manipulated lower.
They could certainly give updates on project status's, but that might complicate things further. There are often going to be delays beyond the company control. Permitting, policies, waiting for inspections etc. Those things should get much smoother and easier to determine in time. Groton had delays for many reasons, sone of which had nothing to do with FCE, just like Toyota. Groton was initially held up due to the need for blasting on a military site but then they had to straighten out their finances. They stabilized finances then had delays due to the EDC, then due to the Navy requesting a modification beyond the original agreement. Then realizing that part needed was non existent and needed to be freshly engineered. Toyota was problematic from the onset also. SCE challenged eligibility for biomass tarrif, we were in court many times. Then there was delays due to gas availability. It's endless. Then they have to decide what they update us on and what they don't. How much information they need to disclose and don't need to disclose. How they do it without negatively impacting the share price. I think they will ultimately be able to be more accurate with estimated time frames for projects to be operational Then just update us when they know there's going to be a change to those ETAs if it's going to be later. For now, I'm very happy with both the projects that have been completed and are operational over the past 6 months, as well as the variety of new projects/contracts they've announced. Regardless of Q1 earnings or plugs going concern (albeit that it is resolved) interest rates, inflation, In any other reason anyone can come up with, does not justify the share price being under $1. No one can confidently say This company has no future potential over the next couple of years. Earnings and share price are usually related to The next 12 to 24 months earnings and growth.
No, sorry, saved for reference and forgot it was there
Stock price under $2 is insane, let alone $1
Just 1 of the huge opportunities in process for years, since 2019!
https://terc.ac.uk/news-events/university-of-sheffields-energy-innovation-centre-partners-with-drax-to-advance-carbon-capture-research/
Went to TERC at Sheffield after FEED with Drax
April 2023 increase funding through August 2023 for FCE because There's no one else that can service the project!!!
July 2023
https://eps.leeds.ac.uk/faculty-engineering-physical-sciences/news/article/5964/new-government-funding-for-carbon-capture-research-project
June 2019
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.drax.com/press_release/drax-secures-500000-innovative-fuel-cell-carbon-capture-study/&ved=2ahUKEwjxhPCKnuCFAxX-FVkFHddJCZEQFnoECBMQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3hHxCH-CNaaaeKinwSa4eq
Now on year 5, Drax is a founding partner specifically to advance our tech with their tech to make it greener!
FEED results 1.7MW bet fuel cell captured 85t CO2 per day
https://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs/project-info/2561
Volume back to reality, not selling ATM this morning,have to wait til June earnings to see what they sold and get explanation why. My guess is we get some sort of positive update no later than 1st week in May, but possibly any day. Tons of + stuff already announced since October as I posted links repeatedly already. Here's some food for thought.
https://www.bestmaterials.com/detail.aspx?ID=22936&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=%28ROI%29%20PMax%20Shopping%20-%20Low%2FNo%20AOV&utm_id=18030280001&utm_content=&utm_term=&gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjw26KxBhBDEiwAu6KXt4JuBrJkpjMrIvdrEsj8yNDS1sWypQybWogzkTkSIuSzB_7uexIMORoCncIQAvD_BwE
Off Navajo Nation site
https://www.bignavajoenergy.com/
https://cleantechnica.com/2023/05/08/toyota-sweetens-mirai-fuel-cell-pot-with-hydrogen-from-biogas/
August 2022, Brown Venture Capital invested last fall so NN could finally move forward with project
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.instagram.com/p/ChFiYAIOtZ1/&ved=2ahUKEwjv653Upt6FAxUql4kEHasWAskQFnoECC8QAQ&usg=AOvVaw0SRkfxJeKR1GZzRRTfzZTT
September 2023
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://tribalbusinessnews.com/sections/energy/14463-venture-funding-boosts-big-navajo-energy-s-clean-energy-expansion&ved=2ahUKEwjP6MLuqN6FAxU_D1kFHacGAKYQFnoECBYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1NAO3RS_QgCZs7w8j0NE1B
On another note, 14 hours ago
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/green-hydrogen-mena_cghm2024-greenhydrogen-investment-ugcPost-7189157060624744449-7P7V?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
Looking for at least a moderate show of stet tomorrow, holding over$.80 and closing green. Strong showing would be green premarket and throughout the day and up after hours. All & all with the major markets today, it actually wasn't to bad.
Greatly undervalued regardless of selling shares anywhere between 25M and 100,M although obviously nobe of us wants to see them sell 100M at these levels. If they did sell 100M must have been a damn good reason. Absolute worst case scenario we find out all details by early June (Q2 earnings). Company could be in Quiet period!!
Hopefully they are done and didn't sell more than 50M. 500M at $1 is easy math and simple to see the market cap is significantly under valued.