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EDIT: Misread your post - thot you said exhaustion of breakout, when you really said, "Exhaustion OR Breakout"
It was a breakout based on "the ema21 breaking zero line"
Heard people reference $Tick, but never understood it's usage
It and $Trin always were elusive to me...
Been in and out workin on car and leaves
MA 20, DOH
MA-20 sayin trend still down!!
AND, Full Stoch spending most of it's time below 50
Could go either way - trin still really high, trin stoch above 2/midband, market breadth on big charts still dec/adv of 7/1 for NYSE - little turn up startin as I am finishing this post BUT, TRIN not likely to stay at this extreme, Bout gotta bounce now - still below Daily lower 20,2 BB and S2 (both at 1417 now and spx at 1410)
Ready for you to critique my post!!
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/markets/default.asp
No, Dem Dere Grail Crossing DO work!!
Got it in a chart in strategydesk - I WIIL be watching!!
AND, was thinking that just putting in a GTC buy order for for $3.50 couldn't hurt.
China has a population that needs this story...work the trade...
WELL, That is an UNDERSTATEMENT LOL
And, actually the US really needs them little buggers in cities - the rental concept is very different, sounds like they have NO plans to sell em, like Mister Softee tryiong to get to rental of "office and windows"
EDIT: Looks like CAT headed back to S1 and is at Lower 20,2 BB on 30 Min Now
KNDI - almost no volume except on Smash Down OR Up days.
Youse is certainly ambitious, and that is a compelling story - I just don't trust anything Chinese, BUT, CROOKZ is CROOKZ whether they b in China or US...
Having trouble posting a chart this morning
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KNDI&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p93487793246
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KNDI&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p94296275865
WOW, Alex was very BUSY last nite - Thank You Sir
When you point to that chart it best have signals everyone can see or its a flight of imagination from never never land...and I'll call you on it......
Welllll, that sounds like a threat, AND, I would expect nothing less.
Steel sharpens steel, and in this case it is "steel sharpens tin", maybe!!
I did pu some 85 CAT calls, NO, NOT catcalls, at 3:30 pm.
All my indicators pointing up on 15/30/60 min timeframes, even 130 min, and candles between s2 and r1.
Hi Alex, would you please make up a timeframes chart set (with candlevolume style) for IWM or TZA whenever you have time. I would greatly appreciate it!
Either should work for me, so do whichever you judge to be more useful to the board.
Thanks,
bobjack
I would like a set of timeframes for IWM, just hated to ask for a whole set = don't feel like I have that right.
DUH, Ya, it was bigcharts, AND now I see that I still have it in a tab, I kept looking all over stockcharts and could not find it - NO WONDER
EDIT: I see REAL value in the CandleVolume Chart, Thanks!!
A NEW trick for me.
No, and I was feeling like a failure and must be missing something UNTIL I saw your comment Below the Chart, then I felt vindicated - no real up volume showing.
Just before this chart/post I was thinking about telling you I was not seeing anything that made me wanna risk a long overnite, THOUGHT I was totally incompetent, well am, but I feel a little less incompetent now.
Can you post a chart of IWM with the same parameters as this chart, AND, do you have that link to advance and decline for all the exchanges on the same page - I have lost that page
EDIT: Funny Thing I have noticed, Remember my thing for 65 min and 130 min bars
At times the 60/65 min charts agree and other times they are somewhat different - start of day, 60 min runs from 9:30 to 10:30 and 65 min runs from 9:30 to 10:35, BUT, last 60 min bar of day runs 3:30 to 4:00 while last 65 min bar runs 2:55 to 4:00, hence the start of bars is 35 min apart, NOT something I would have expected until I dug under the hood
Several years ago, I used to get hosed using volume figures to trade because they changed drastically after hours or next morning and really screwed OBV and Vol spikes over, SINCE reading your stuff, I looked into stockcharts price/volume data and where it came from, MOSTLY an exchange call BATS, which was a very minor player when I was trying to use vol, and lots of HIDDEN trading went on and only reported vol after hours - appears that you have reasonably good luck with obv n vol, and I suppose the reason is that BATS has become a much BIGGER player and accordingly supplies much more useful data..
Foods For Thoughts that I never had before!!
LOL, watch me shoot myself in the FOOT one more time, or maybe MORE...
BTW, I will TRY to refrain from taking counter-trend trades, I wanna pass the more risky stuff for lack of expertise, and break my bad habits. When I grow up, I will go there LOL
TimeFrame Signals/Trading... Gettin It and USIN it are different and been my DOWNFALL, Impatience/Greed/Too much Coffee/blah,blah, JUST as you always say!!
I have known it for 2 years, U are teaching me PATIENCE - Sat on my hands last week - last trade was my option trade a week ago Fri - NEEDLESS to say I missed lotz of money last week, BUT, not killing me to miss as usual, trying to keep the right frame of mind - there is always another signal and another trade, maybe 1 day, maybe weeks OUT, but look for THE timeframe signals!!!
Another problem I have is getting my head in the right mode, you mentioned doing your warm-up exercises in middle of night to hit the ground running each day - I had to drop off a sister-n-law's cat to be spayed on Fri, got back by market open, BUT, fighting traffic n gettin lost did NOT help my HEAD for trading atmosphere.
Not wining or complaining, JUST witnessing to your statements..
Confession Time: I do have some TZA that I have been sittin on for 2 months - nother bad move...
Getting direction correct...even if the NEWS and talking heads and others are talking their book and are not unbiased in there assessment...YOU read the internals...timeframe bias...=direction.
We are looking at daily bias= bearish and weekly playing along=extra push down until daily gets oversold or reverses centerline.
GET DIRECTION first...which your post says you are getting it...
The 3 dimensional chess analogy = knowing the 3 timeframe's BIAS and how to trade based on their bias. A) intraday bias as it relates to daily BIAS, B) daily BIAS as the primary price mover and C) weekly bias as an added push or strength to daily's direction when the 2 agree on direction.
TRIN doesn't have to get positive right away as intraday timeframes all say ready for bounce...just expect TRIN to continue to improve and to "point" direction...same for stochTRIN=stochTRIN smooths the signals and has its own signal lines which makes reading understanding TRIN easier.(yesterday I thought it was slow and sideways forever until went above centerline and upper level. I think ZIKO should copy write this indicator since he was first to make it part of chart and evaluating the TRIN...as a day trading tool nothing beats stochTRIN/TRIN...in understanding the volume adv/decl intraday=intraday bias =TRIN... it must confirm what price is saying...
Learning to wait for 28 minutes into a 30 minute bar, or 1 minute into the next bar to trust the signal is easier to keep in mind also.
Thank You
Watched TNA on 15/30/60 Min charts yesterday and bot TNA 59.5 Calls at $1.30 @ 11:42 and dumped at $1.35 @ 1:16 after you said you were selling some SPX longs - I figured you saw something coming that I did not AND, weakness was starting, SO I bailed - OH Well, Grasshopper... they were up to $1.95 at 1:30 today.
Bottom indicators are CCI-10, CCI-20, and CCI-40 overlaid
Grail moving avg for 10 periods is SMA, not EMA, am I correct?
A lot of the charts have 3, 5, and 10 period EMAs on them - not much difference in reality, just tryin to get it right..
Thanks for this input
KIY, "Maybe over the week end you could share some thoughts on why/how you pick your Bollinger parameters."
The question should have been stated as - Does one just set several different Bollingers (10.1 or 10.2 or 20.1 or 20.2) and pick the two or three that seem to fit the volatility (constrain price) of the ticker, and then delete the rest?? I thought your answer would be yes, BUT, wanted to confirm your answer.
Many things that seem obvious to me, are not obvious to other people, AND, many things obvious to other people are not obvious to me, so I ask a lot of questions to confirm or non-confirm my understanding of a concept/situation/circumstance.
Just now I went back and reviewed a note that you wrote to me a while back -
" Signal is generated when (1) a reaction is obtained from price re-entering BB10.1 (upper band), AND (2) price going below EMA 3 on daily.
Bollinger band one deviation is what I showed Ziko along with the grail averages...they frequently trigger at the one deviation and sometimes it causes a big price move...Averages trigger as the one deviation band gets crossed...I said this is program trading getting triggered here...algoBots...HFT...Bollingers are an algorithm its obvious at the one deviation (BUT nobody talks about the one deviation; same rules apply here as the rules on 2 standard deviations and if you look you too can see the triggers...that's all there is to it...I see 30 minute have some significant triggers also at or very near the +/-100 CCI signals lines...but its not as predictable like the one deviation band...and grail averages...and if you use intraday signals on at the one deviation band expect more false signals...I don't use the bands for anything but to walk price and signals up to the daily chart signals...you are really front running the daily;;;only HFT RoBoTcrooks can front run intraday charts.
As far as the 3EMA..I can trade 3EMA and no other indicators...period...price has to fall below 3 moving to even get the average to start to turn...its a trigger that gets the attention as it (PRICE) crosses the 5 moving average...then trigger 10 moving...all you are doing is trading the Bollinger Bands with a 10moving average centerline..outer bands suggest overbought/oversold= a mean reversion=centerline 10moving average. These triggers happen and follow through is price behavior below the 10 average...truthfully the 10day average may be the most obvious trailing stop that nobody uses..."
Actually, I am brain dead tonight and this post may not make any sense to you, or myself, tomorrow morning.
Gre-e-eat Illustration, and I like the phrase "Boxing In Price", which is exactly what the Bollingers do!!
Step (or progress) from No Structure to STRUCTURE...
HiYa KIY, I have been hand sitting all week too, fought numerous strong urges to call a short term bottom - I am following every day, BUT, quite sporadically, computer issues and others,,, I make it to CLASS late and leave EARLY, but even if you can't see me, I am here several times a day, Big Smile.
How's the eye doin, Teach?
Maybe over the week end you could share some thoughts on why/how you pick your Bollinger parameters. 10.1 or 10.2 or 20.1 or 20.2 - just set all and pick the two that seem to fit the volatility of the ticker??
I woulda made money on my TNA put last week if I hadn't GAMBLED on a Friday Dip and went to short on exp - hence some handsitting to gain Patience
One of the TOP lessons to learn!
Thank U!
bobjack
VERY Interesting, BTW, if anyone ever wishes to send me a PM, I can read them, but not respond because I am a freebie member here.
BTW - Your system/method reminded me of another CCI method (that was much less effective, and a miserable failure for ME, But not Nocona) It was much less in depth than your approach. Thought you might get a kick out of knowing of it's existance:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=14508055
These are the Basic Rules for NERS (Nocona's Early Retirement System):
When the CCI is above the +100 you are holding long. When it drops below the +100 you are out of the long and short.
When the CCI is below the -100 you are holding short. When it rises above the -100 you cover the short and go long.
The tricky part happens when the CCI will not reach the opposite 100 line. How to handle when (1) the CCI will not break the zero line at all (2) the CCI breaks the zero line but then soon goes back in the other direction (3) the CCI breaks the zero line and holds there for awhile but without breaking the 100 line. These situations have been the subject of discussion between Nocona and I which you can read about in past posts. The one thing Nocona and I agree on is in situation #2 - If the CCI breaks the zero line, but then crosses it again, you close your position and enter the opposite position. (If short, go long; If long, go short.)
If the CCI goes to a HFE (hook from extreme) beyond the 200 line, Nocona will use the break back of the 200 line as an entry, just like the 100 line.
What CCI to use? The idea started with the 60 min chart using a 12 CCI, but Nocona was entering mid bar and not waiting the whole hour for the bar to close. So it then seemed reasonable to move to a shorter time frame chart with a longer (but equivalent) CCI. So:
60 min 12 CCI is equivalent to:
30 min 24 CCI
15 min 48 CCI
10 min 72 CCI
5 min 144 CCI
The 5 min 144 CCI can be very whippy and is not advised to be used alone without consultation of a longer time frame chart.
I think that about covers it.
I know others are watching and some others are afraid cause I can be a hardazzz sometimes...boy I wish I had some hard azz telling me I was thinking wrong and looking wrong or my little ego was in the way and was going to fail...would HAVE SAVED ME A HELL OF A LOT OF TRIAL AND ERROR...and money.
I second, third, and fourth that - I thought I read your mind a few times saying,"Dumb Azz Grasshopper" bout me. I tend to relate to your style a lot...
My experience in life and learning is that unless you are gifted in a particular area, the price of the education can be high financially, time investment, or BOTH, AND, there are lots of supposed teachers out there ready to grab your BUCKS -- I paid Bernie Schaeffer Tons o Bucks about 10/12 years ago and got nothing BUT more arm twisting and NO education.
Well Said, You have mastered it, I am taking Baby Steps
My TNA puts just closed at 30 min 20.1 Lower band at .40 with a 50% loss ($160) - coulda possible been a money maker by 3:55, but, risky.
I am catching on VERY slowly - learning some patience and extras
you are a good teacher
I had asked if you had to wear dark glass' because of eye surgery, and you said you were using something screenlike to look thru lots of small holes to block light level to eyes - thought it was glass' of some sort, but may be a filter attachment for your monitor - just curious
Kool, Footster has LOTZ of nice charts, had not seen this one, thanks
if you know of a link where I can look at the screen glass' that you use, post it - I am curious about anything I have not seen before (to a fault - ADD can be Good and BAD LOL)
I screwed up, didn't put sell order in at 1.60 like I considered doin, 2:00 t0 2:05 candle mighta triggered n made me money quickly
Ted Lines are Support/Resistance lines derived from P&F charts
Same as everyone else uses, BUT, Ted Burge tries to make money off em
He has a public chart list on stockcharts and is famous in a small way (known by followers of the public chart lists and see many references to the "Ted " lines which I may start referencing the "KIY" lines to make you famous and in direct competition to Mr Burge.
BIG SMILE
I gotta admit, I have not given them the respect they deserve in the past, although I always drew channels and even support/resistance lines on my charts.
http://stockcharts.com/public/1424685/tenpp/1
Been Watching off n on all day - %B n SIMPLE charts are COOL - watching the action at support n resistance with pivots - bot 4 TNA puts at top of range bout 1:35 pm, prob bout same time you did another short, I had not read your posts till few minutes ago,
JUST watching chart action,
as someone mentioned, WATCH the "ted lines",
who was that masked man, Ted or someone on this board
15-30-60 minute...
60 minute getting ready...
15 minute
nice array so you just scroll up and down to keep track!!
how's your eye today?
I don't wrestle with any of them...,
I mis-interpreted your action/interaction - Because it is such a struggle for me, I took your action and chatter as frustration and in reality it is no different than some one who loves solitaire and plays several hrs a day, EXCEPT that solitaire does not make money - LOL
I would ultimately like to be able to Swing Trade or Position Trade, not Day Trade, per se - I used to like sitting in front of the puter watching all day, I can't stay focused enough, and I would love to find a way to trade once a day to one every 5 days and be able to set my software up to beep or go "OOOOOGA, DIVE" if a trigger is hit
You are a master of 10 pts or 20pts every whipstich and take top money, I will settle for far less..
If I made $300 a week, I'd be happy
If I made $500 a week, I'd be even happier
More than that and I'd have to change my diaper LOL
In 1999 when I first started trading, at the blow off top, I was making 17 grand a day for a week or 3, and then I was losing it at 17 grand a day, and gave it all back and 90% of my nest egg -
NOW, how's that for a story??
Me and a zillion others prob did it the same way..
"The Trade is on the DAILY Chart"really APPEALS to me.
Hope this doesn't insult you
IF, and I repeat, IF this chart is so easy, WHY do you wrestle with the 10 min trin chart
AND, How's The Eye - Can you see better than this morning??
I will try to find a 30 or 60 min version of this chart to look at.
sDESK does not offer %B and looks impossible to code
SORRY, To Be Sure, the TNA 130 Min Chart signals were actually marked on daily view, so when the chart was switched to 130 Min view, the sigs look out of place
EDIT: An Opinion - Head Scratching!!
Just goes to show the manipulation at it's finest, going into the election - CROOKS crash it after election - JMHO and YMMV
http://www.streetsmartpost.com/
Sy Harding
Tuesday, October 2, 9:25 a.m.
Conditions have set up more heavily for a market downturn, without one having taken place, than I can remember in quite some time.
In fact, without even considering those conditions, the S&P 500 has had only three rallies in the last ten years that lasted as long as the June rally without even a 5% correction.
And then we can look at the conditions, which make that even more remarkable, since any one or two of them have been more than enough to mark some significant tops in the past, let alone just a correction.
Global economic growth has been collapsing and continues to do so. The economic slowdowns continue unabated in the major economies of the world, including the U.S., China, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Italy, India, Canada, Russia, and Spain, as well as in the rest of the 17-nation euro-zone.
The U.S. economy is in a similar situation, GDP growth in the 2nd quarter revised down to just 1.3%, durable goods orders plunging 13.2% in August, the Fed’s various Business Indexes (Empire State, Chicago, etc.,), and its National Business Index (CFNBI), all dropping into negative territory, etc. Yes, in the mix there was a small uptick in the ISM Mfg Index yesterday. But overall the reports are not encouraging at all.