Conditions have set up more heavily for a market downturn, without one having taken place, than I can remember in quite some time.
In fact, without even considering those conditions, the S&P 500 has had only three rallies in the last ten years that lasted as long as the June rally without even a 5% correction.
And then we can look at the conditions, which make that even more remarkable, since any one or two of them have been more than enough to mark some significant tops in the past, let alone just a correction.
Global economic growth has been collapsing and continues to do so. The economic slowdowns continue unabated in the major economies of the world, including the U.S., China, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Italy, India, Canada, Russia, and Spain, as well as in the rest of the 17-nation euro-zone.
The U.S. economy is in a similar situation, GDP growth in the 2nd quarter revised down to just 1.3%, durable goods orders plunging 13.2% in August, the Fed’s various Business Indexes (Empire State, Chicago, etc.,), and its National Business Index (CFNBI), all dropping into negative territory, etc. Yes, in the mix there was a small uptick in the ISM Mfg Index yesterday. But overall the reports are not encouraging at all.
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