Born again, born of God in July 2011
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Market cap is now under 70 million. This is a ridiculous valuation for a company with a SPA for a phase three AML trial. Big pharma could tender a premium buyout now for a hundred million and finance the trial, for a total investment of under 150 million. Dr. K at Anderson believes Sap is the key drug in this space so the small gamble to buy CYCC here could pay off to the tune of hundreds of millions in profit, even if you dismiss any value add with regard to the litigation/patents or the other compounds in the pipeline.
OU71764, they are indeed a small company (24 employees) and have taken longer to accomplish their goals than expected. I recall that last December they met with the FDA about conducting a phase three study and obtaining a SPA but did not accomplish that until September, despite the CEO's projected timeframe of April-ish. The SPA was received in September and I suspect, like you, that finding patients will not be difficult as oral therapy is an attractive alternative. About 4 months have passed since SPA day so I am fairly certain that any day now we will learn that patient one has been dosed and that phase there AML is underway.
When you look at the market cap of companies in the biotech space, you can quickly surmise that there is a deep value disconnect here between where CYCC is priced and other companies. When these disconnects present themselves they offer speculators an opportunity to make a profit. Biotech in general is a risky space but when I put my money to play I focus more on risk than reward. I think the risk of downside from here is quite small. The phase 2 results are out and priced in. The dilutive measures taken to fincance phase three AML have been known for months so those are priced in. The potential catalyst of a partenrship, start of phase three or initiation of a NSCLC or breast cancer study are there. There is also the possible catalyst of an update on the litigation with Celgene.
In sum, the risk is quite minimal here, especially when we consider the downside pressure from tax loss selling is about to come to an end. There is an excellent opportunity here.
I think you are correct. Whenever i take on a biotech position, i always evaluate the risk versus reward. I bought yesterday as the risk is low, now that trial data on NSCLC is out and priced in (the stock stabilized in the 1.50s). Since the SPA was granted almost 4 months ago, i expect that soon we will hear an announcement that phase three has begun. That would be the largest milestone in CYCC's trading history and might start a very good move in the stock. Why? The company would be a step closer to revenue ( I know they make a little money on other products but I mean real revenues here). So Phase Three is a possible near-term catalyst.
SNSS recently started a very nice move on similar news and it does not even have a SPA. Plus note that SNSS has a much higher market cap -- 140 million versus CYCC's mc of 70 million and yet CYCC's cash per share and book value are more than double that of SNSS. There is a disconnect (read opportunity) here. I think that the market will soon catch CYCC's market cap up with that of SNSS.
As a side note, the recent SEC filings indicate that a certain managerial employee is concerned about her situation in the event of a buyout. We also know that big pharma pipelines are shallow these days, especially in the AML treatment space. The filing could be happenstance or prudence before a deal is to be struck.
I see a tipping of the scale in favor of reward versus risk right now.
Phase three should come any day now. SPA was granted September 8, if memory serves me correctly. Picked her up today 1.54 for a pop. 2.75 is strong resistance.
Looks like it has bottomed.
Nice technical set-up after today's candle and bullish eod surge. Really looks like she wants the 30s tomorrow.
Per Yahoo MB, IR says capital raise details next week.
Like the higher low. Bought a few at 263 here.
He is one clueless pumptard but sometimes he finds a winner.
Hangin in, pally. Go have some cakebread and a girly sized NY strip for me. Hope you are making bank.
Welcome to the stockmarket a/k/a the great wealth incinerator. Throw your pile of cash into this here fire.
There ya go. Was that fun or what?
Ya think so?
Dipped her to the 50 dma and shot her back up. Bodes well for next week.
Nice low volume consolidation after breakout from base subsequent to long downward trend. That's on the dailies. Weeklies very bullish too. looks very bullish and a decent shot at a buck next week. Bought the dip today at 53. GL!
CPST looks good for a flip. Grabbed some here at 695.
UWBK: trading at 40 cents with the bollinger bands indicating a big move soon. Looks primed here, fellers.
When the company has attempted to provide guidance in terms of time-frames, investors have been disappointed. We were hoping to have a special protocol assessment (SPA) by April (for a phase III trial to treat AML patients) of this year but still nothing in that regard. This has been a frustrating stock for anyone looking to make a quick buck (unless you were one of the most fortunate people who bought in December and sold in January on that big 3 day run).
From americanexec: With cancer rates on the rise and new cancers evolving every day, doctors and scientists must be ever vigilant in seeking effective ways to attack the disease. One way is to focus on specific patient populations. At Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals in Berkeley Heights, NJ, scientists are creating drugs to meet the medical needs of the elderly, according to company President & CEO Spiro Rombotis.
“As population trends go, cancer is a disease of older people. Of the many hundreds of types of cancer that scientists know, there are specific subtypes that are almost uniquely encountered in older people. Doctors are aware that the needs of older patients with cancer can be quite different from those of children or even younger adults, as they’re likely to have simultaneously with their cancer other medical conditions that prohibit the aggressive chemotherapy that has been the mainstay of cancer treatment over the past 50 years.”
However, the range of drugs available to older people is lacking, according to Rombotis. “This is a high unmet social need and a high unmet medical need.” Of particular concern are drugs that will help older people whose systems simply cannot tolerate traditional chemotherapy and its side effects.
Cyclacel seeks to achieve this with two drugs now in clinical trials. They are sapacitabine, to be used with elderly patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS); and seliciclib, for patients with non-small cell lung cancer and cancer of the nose and pharynx (NPC). Each is in Phase II clinical trials or mid-stage development. Cyclacel is waiting for FDA clearance of a Phase III or late stage trial of sapacitabine in AML, which, if successful, could be used for commercializing the drug.
The drugs are available in pill or lozenge form, important for patients 70 years or older. “Ingestion of the drugs by mouth is important because these oral drugs appear to have a lower level of toxicity and do not induce many of the side effects associated with commonly used chemotherapies,” Rombotis said. “The drugs seem to be popular with elderly patients with AML, for example, because the only alternative they have is chemotherapy given as an injection.”
Development of these drugs is in line with Cyclacel’s stated mission of building a diversified biopharmaceutical business focused in hematology, oncology, and other therapeutic areas based on a portfolio of commercial products and a development pipeline of novel drug candidates. Based in Berkeley Heights, NJ and with research labs in Dundee, Scotland, the company employs 23 people and has revenues of $1 million.
Breaking the cycle
Professor Sir David Lane, PhD, a British cancer expert and professor of biochemistry at the University of Dundee, founded Cyclical Pharmaceuticals in 1996. Also on board is Chief Scientist David Glover, PhD, a professor of genetics at the University of Cambridge and a world authority in the study of mitosis.
Lane is best known for discovering p53, a gene that is mutated in about two-thirds of all human beings with cancer. “A ubiquitous gene, p53 is very important in the genetic revolution of which Cyclacel is a part, namely the concept of discovering cancer drugs that mimic the body’s own anticancer defenses,” Rombotis said.
“Healthy human beings are able to stop cancer from forming, even though we have cells that multiply rapidly. This is because our body uses molecular brakes, called tumor suppressor genes, that are mechanisms designed to control uncontrolled cell proliferation.”
When there’s a disruption of the cell cycle, the biochemical and structural mechanisms controlling the process of cell division and duplication, tumors develop. They appear in solid organs, like the liver, lung, or prostate, and in blood. “Blood tumors, also known as hematological malignancies, are even more challenging because the cancer is spread throughout our entire circulation and therefore is not a localized tumor we could treat with surgery and radiation,” Rombotis said.
The field of cell cycle biology is where the company gets its name and conveys its focus. Cyclacel seeks to discover new drugs that exploit the discoveries that were disclosed and cited in the 2001 Nobel Prize for Medicine, which was given to three scientists for their discoveries of key regulators in the cell cycle. That breakthrough has helped scientists at companies like Cyclacel design targeted drugs that simulate or mimic the way the body tries to stop uncontrolled cell proliferation, said Rombotis.
Since its inception, Cyclacel has discovered nine new chemical families of cancer drugs. The company also sells three products in the US that provide supportive care to patients that suffer from cancer. One treats the skin redness, or dermatitis, caused by drugs or radiation, and the other is for dry mouth, a condition called xerostomia, which is caused by drugs and radiation and some autoimmune disorders.
Cyclacel has experienced its own breakthrough. For example, sapacitabine is the first drug in its chemical family (called “nucleoside analogues”) to be available by mouth that has made it to the end of mid-stage trials. The specific indication Cyclacel focused on in developing it is AML, a cancer often seen in people over the age of 70.
“We deliberately chose the older populations because they are the patients in whom the drug may show the most benefit,” said Rombotis. Because of its mechanism and that it is given by mouth, it appears to have lower toxicity than other members of its chemical family. “It does not cause in people many of the side effects experienced by patients on common chemotherapies, such as throwing up,” he said.
In mid-stage trials the drug was associated with at least one-year survival in about one-third of AML patients aged 70 years or older. Rombotis said this is important because the one-year survival rate of patients with AML in this age group has been reported to be between 10% and 17%.
Cyclacel is busily working to start the Phase III trial, which could be used for approval, and Rombotis remains positive. However, he tempers his enthusiasm. “We never allow our own program to seduce us. We have to keep a psychological distance until the data supports the utility of the drug; then we can pronounce it a success.”
Rombotis is optimistic about the future. When asked what drives achievement at his company, he said, “The two Davids, as we affectionately call them, are world pioneers in the area of cell cycle biology. When you work next to people of that world-class caliber, you have to meet their standards.”
No. The latest I heard was that "extensive discussions" were on-going with the FDA. I am a major bagholder in this stock. Cannot wait to get a pop into which I can sell. SPA news is way WAY WAAAAY overdue.
Rat, got your pm but cannot reply as I am a free member. Shoot me an e-mail at bull.profits@yahoo.com some time and I'll share some personal info. Busy with life but don't you worry about the market and me. I am losing my ass as always -- in case you had any doubt. Hope you are making big bucks.
Nada. All cash and thanks, bud. Been fun chatting with you. If I see good news (real news -- not fluff), I'll re-enter on a pullback after a high volume surge. Take care, bud.
Dumped it. That's it. GL, people.
fluffy useless news as far as meaningful nearterm value imo.
A POS-erific start for our lil dogshit today. News needed.
Weekly candle chart looks good too. Bottom is in (I frigin hope). Long hammer candle and on support at the 50 dma. SHOULD go up next week.
The possibility of a RS scares the hell out of me as I have been hurt badly by RSs before. They are acct killers. Was hoping for a follow-on PR today to drive momentum. The chart indicates this is a short term bottom and a trip to 40ish is in order. A bid of .40 puts me well into the black. I want more though but would be very happy to get the hell out at .40 a share.
News is possible on PrevOnco phase 3 plans (SPA submission?). Around April 25 or so they released the news that the FDA encouraged em to skip 2 and go to 3, assumin a suitable plan/protocol. The nect step should ahve been to design said plan and submit a SPA application to get the FDA on board goin into phase 3. A PR stating that a SPA application or meeting is in, would be nice. The SPA itself is no guarantee of an approvaed drug down the road but it is a HUGE plus. I'm rambing now. Still in. Still undewater.
I promise you, bud, you will never see me touch this POS again if I am fortunate enough to get out at even steven. Let's see a nice fluff PR in the morning to get it into the low .40s and then maybe we even have a 30 sec window to dump and get the hell out at a profit. Imagine that! A profit! WOAH! Just give us a quick PR on some pre-clinical stuff.
Finally a spark. Hoping it can give us a classic Friday biotech run tomorrow. One dollar please. Hell, who am I kidding? I'd be thrilled to just break even.
Oh, OK. Just out whie I was posting. Thanks. Hurry up n wait some more. I wish they would have stated selling was done but merely stating that they are not currently selling doesn't comfort me. I wanted them to say they were done with dilution/financing. Let's see if the market cares. Come on!
Pretty sad that we are hoping for a close in the low 30s to show a reversal. Lil while back, 50 seemed cheap. Now 50 seems like a blue sky breakout. What a POS! Where the bloody fjacken hell is the news on moving forward with PrevOnco P 3 and Health Canada news (due end of May to June 5)? This is brutal. Just brutal.
Good post. Any news re cessation of dilution or payment of notes, could start a run. Dilution has been the culprit. p
Fascinating dogshit! All I can say is wow! Maybe 19 tomorrow at this rate. Bagholder? RIGHT HERE! I need a PR stating they have received a billion dollars and will give every frigin penny to us shareholders via a dividend in order for this to rally to my breakeven point now. Hilarious as hell.
LOL! Thanks, pal. Have a good one. Heading out for sushi.
In TIVO 7.33s for one of my own probably. Only holding this and dogshit NEXM. How are ya, rat? Eating like a fat man but running like a skinny bitch. Translation: maintaining at 175. Later, buddy.
A PR to that effect (closure of financing/dilution) would be nice. Holding and waiting for the pop. Carry on.
It will stay on the nasdaq, per the co, even if it means a RS. This dogshit is making a great case for microbio POS of the year here at the halfway point through 2010. Yet another day and no PR. |Most uncharacteristic.
Missing: trading acct balance. If found, forward to "retail schmuck c/o Spicy, Ontario, Canada." No reward.
How ya been, rat? Added NEXM and everything else gone at a loss. Unreal.
Added sub .30 here. Pulled avergae down to .mid-low 30s so. Will hold till next news pop. Been almost 2 weeks since a PR, which is VERY UNUSUAL for this dogshit. Very unusual. maybe they are working on a REAL PR this time. Soemthing about closure of dilution/financing would be nice. Plus HC news is due, as is FDA news on the WC front. Come on! Then there is SPA submission re PprevOnco. We need a catalyst.
Confessions of a bagholder
I've grown numb.
Maybe tomorrow morning then. HC response was due June 5.