GONZO
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I'm starting to think that Dan and co. are not thinking that way at all because "they truly KNOW what they have" (i.e. it maybe much larger than anybody realizes), and something ~5B maybe simply an starting point to a much bigger conversation.
"French-press Powder Keg"
Just when it looks like it's going to get lit, more powder is added and then pressed. When this thing blows, my oh my - look out!
Folks, nothing has changed, except that Advaxis now has a P3 added to it's queue of goodness. All of this for a company with an MC of ~300million? Really? Seriously? Somebody find me another BIO that has the same optics. I'd love to see it.
GLTA
The clock hasn't stopped ticking...
Changing my view....
Given the changing (favorable) environment around BIOTechs and ADXS near-term developments, I do not believe a "potential acquiring company" will wait beyond this fall to make a play.
So, I now believe that if a company is going to go after Advaxis (i.e. BO), it's going to happen within the next 6 months or so, and it's going to be very, very aggressive. Furthermore, before that time-frame, I fully expect the pps the get to somewhere between $50 and $75 pps (between 2 and 3 Billion MC). From there a buyout would be north of 5B.
However, if this doesn't happen, then Advaxis maybe going for something much, much bigger - north of 10B MC.
Time will tell. Exciting times ahead for sure.
Er, umm, I think we are going to see a changed in the pps that nobody expected. And I'm not talking about getting to an "deserved" valuation of a billion either.
Not remotely.
Can you hear that?
Can you hear it?
It's a clock, and it's ticking...
Yes, it would be nice if the pps reflected the base fair value of where ADSX is today. However those prices, which are effectively between 1B and 2B market caps are just a baseline and do not reflect potential.
From a baseline of 2 or 3 billion MC, the potential is multiple times that if Advaxis chooses to pursue partnerships and/or licensing deals. The point is that a buyout maybe short-sighted given what's in the queue and how the landscape around BIOTechs is becoming increasingly more favorable.
Frankly, at this point, I would be very disappointed with a market cap below 3B as a starting point. From there, it depends on a lot of things, whether buyout or not, etc. If Advaxis chooses the short route, then a buyout from the correct base would be between 5-6B. However, if they do not, then a market cap of single billions is probably short-sighted if we are talking beyond the next several years.
Either way, the ball is teed up and waiting for the club.
******* Billion Double-digit MC ********
IFFFFF
Advaxis is not thinking of selling and building their company through partnerships and licensing, then they aren't thinking 5-6B MC. I'll wager the vision is 5X that.
Food for thought, albeit this would be beyond 2018...
I think it's more like a catapult and $20 maybe a fly-by...
Yes, the possibility is there, but I still believe a buyout is in the cards before 2019.
And after a valuation base of 2B+, then bring on that 3X-4X buyout please!
I doubt it's negative and I sincerely hope it's not a buyout, unless they are getting in the many billions. Given the current situation with ADXS, my guess is that's related to pricing arrangements with an imminent partnership of some kind. Just pure speculation on my part.
Concerning current share price, is everybody hung up on "$30 is where we should be at" because of the previous high? I'm thinking in terms of MC, and it seems the MC should be in the billions right now, something at 2B or better. This would put the share price at a minimum of $50.
********* $250.00 ***********
I like that number. It's a nice, round 10B MC.
POTUS pushed the first domino with the recent commentary on streamlining FDA processes; something I wasn't expecting so soon. My perspective has changed and become even more bullish.
Assuming ADXS lands their near-term goals, coupled with the beginning of establishing changes in the BIOTech FDA environment, I expect that we will see a 2B MC at a minimum. If there is a broad sector run, it could be much bigger. So, 2B MC is about 50pps.
That would be a nice start...
[Sep'99 $8.22 low] [Feb'00 $144.53 high]
Now that's what I'd like to see
Squeezing the last juice outta them lemons at 100 share drips.
Drip, drip, drip
POP!
Not sure about this. Low volume and still a bunch 100 share trades. I think they're gonna get caught.
Yup. Looking forward to the "real deal" though.
Agreed and hoping that we see a material change in 2017. Assuming this happens, what I am more excited about is the slingshot potential off the true base valuation.
That will be something impossible to predict.
Rather than looking at pps, consider market cap. I'd say 1B is quite conservative, while anything above 2.5B is probably high for where ADXS is at <right now>.
So, the pps should roughly fall between $25 and $65 (low and high ends, mid-range: ~45). Assuming that ADXS will be looked at favorably near-term and long-term, I would guess that the MC will tick on the other side of the mid-range, towards the upper end of $65.
Given all of this, I could see the stock hitting $45-$50 this year if all things go well.
It's quiet for a reason...
All that I can say is, just be very patient, please.
10.25B MC? Hmmm, I like how you think. That would put ADXS at ~$255 pps.
Unfortunately, I believe there will be a buyout before that ever happens.
Still would like to see the valuation get to somewhere above 2B this year. And looking for a buyout next year, double that or slightly better.
But, crazier things have happened in BIO-Land...
Folks occasionally I don't log in (so those ignored show up) just to see if the same posters are "continuing" in their nonsense.
It's easy to diffuse - just ignore.
Good luck all - hopefully we see some movement Monday, now that T is formalized as POTUS.
This year should be very good, but next year hoping to be "out-of-the-park" great!
Agreed in where our valuation is not reflected accurately. We should be 4X where we are at today, and I'm being nice.
In due time, in due time.
After 1/20, release the hounds...
If ADXS' Immunotherapy platform really changes the way cancer is treated, then what market cap are we seriously talking about as potential for a buyout?
Some say, $100/sh or about a 4B MC. Does that seem reasonable for a game-changing solution for cancer?
Food for thought.
Given our close over $9 last week and continued trend up, which surprised me given I expected to cross $9 and close over $9 this week, I expect we will cross $10 tomorrow (assuming the trend continues); should close over $10 no later than Wednesday.
Having said this, I believe the next 2 weeks will validate the push to the appropriate valuation, somewhere between $25 and $40, which will likely happen before mid-early spring.
Good luck. Looks like we are FINALLY getting started.
Have you been paying attention to what has been going on? Do you understand that we bounced in the 7s and reversed?
This thing is headed back to where it's true valuation lies, somewhere between $25 and $40.
From there, all bets are off.
Trend up continues; likely to close over $9 sometime next week.
Markets closed Monday.
I'm expecting a significant trend change for BIOs post inauguration, which is when things become "official".
In case you have noticed, the trend has already changed for ADXS and we should break that single-digit wall soon enough.
I don't think we see single digits after January ever again.
If it's really "a deal" and leaked news today with follow-through tomorrow, then it's the teens this week.
Inauguration+
Single digits gone forever soon enough
I expect we'll be trading in the teens soon. I don't think things really get cooking until post inauguration.
Looking for $25-$40 before summer, which is really where we should be now. From there, who knows? It could be anything from a gradual move to $$65-$70 or a bidding war that puts us over $150.
I still believe this company is bought sometime in 2018 north of 5B.
1/20/2017+
Yah, I know we need to climb back through these levels - blah. We could touch $15 this week and it would still be "Yawn" to me.
Nothing gets really started until we break $25.
Good luck. Only a matter of time now...
I've been telling you - wait for post inauguration. After Trump takes the official oath, things will really start to change.
It will get there, but that's the only the beginning.
Nope. That's only 800 mil.
They might take a sniff if the offer was 2.5B right now, ~$60/share.
I don't see a serious buyout offer until beyond Q2 of 2018. And I don't think folks will jump for anything under 5B MC.
I still believe buyout will be sometime in 2018, north of 5B.
If now, we'd get short changed. I'd say the offer would be 2B, 3B max. Worst case, that's 1/3 of what this is really worth in a couple of years or so.
I still believe that post inauguration, this thing is going to take off.