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Keep thinking that. Green flag today to dilute them to virtually nothing and zero you can do about it, no one will care.
I was on your side and had a lot of money in common. Fortunately, I still doubled my money, but common is a fools bet with this ruling. Emotion is tough to overcome and I almost didn't sell it, but you have to look at the facts. Don't stay in a terrible position on hope - you'll lose.
The commons can be steam rolled now and no one will care at all. Prfd's have solid claims and are the major litigants. Commons have virtually nothing at this point, which is why I dumped them all. I'll be looking to add to prfd o any further decrease.
I've been in both classes all along, but only prfd now.
I was in both share classes, but you need to know when to change your shit up and that time is now. Prfd are the best bet.
Not true. Breach of contract and takings are still alive unlike common. Made a good return on common and am still up nicely on prfd. Common may get screwed, prfd looks much better.
The point is that prfds have contract claims and takings claims. Common has zero and can easily be obliterated at this point. The major P's that count right now are all prfd. Common is not the place to be anymore.
Meaning prfd are the only ones standing
Sold out of common for a gain. Kept all prfd.
Common are toast - not a leg to stand on, no contract and admin record doesn't matter.
Why are you posting week old info. that has already come out?
The Trump admin will not want a settlement where they walk away with nothing. We know they want to preserve, recap and release; and we also know they will be vehemently attacked from every angle.
A plan similar to this allows them to say we freed the companies, we are fostering low - middle home ownership again, we made $30B "for the taxpayer" beyond the money paid back, we protected all shareholders prfd and common, not just some key prfd shareholders within our circle and the litigation is ended.
How about a conversion of the prfd $19B outstanding at par resulting in 1.8M common shares (2 - 2.5 common/prfd). Add to existing float for a total of 3B common.
Gov agrees in settlement to adjust warrants to 2B common with new exercise price of $10. As part of recap they also issue 1B in additional new common shares.
Fannie $10B earnings at PE 15 = $150B market cap
6B common shares at $25 pps
Recap:
New issuance of prfd at 10% = $15B
1B new common share = $25B
2B warrants/common at $10 exerc. price = $20B
4 years retained earnings = $40B
Fannie Mae recaps company in 4 years with $100B
Gov makes $30B
Lawsuits gone, company recapped, Trump can claim victory in freeing FnF + $30B, prfd's make out much better than par and common also do exceptionally well.
Victory for all with the exception of some stubborn common shareholders, who will make unrealistic claims and talk about cont'd lawsuits except no on will be carrying their litigation efforts anymore.
That's why you should own a mix of common/prfd.
http://seekingalpha.com/news/3241593-tax-cuts-mean-frannie-need-treasury-draws-fitch?app=1&uprof=51#email_link
I wonder if admin will deem as off topic!!!!!
Probably sat if dems continue their bs stalling/obstructionist tactics.
What is that an answer to?
Looks like Mnuchin could be Saturday now.
I thought once it ended though, they're moving straight to votes on the four today?
Without a doubt we're in a much better position than if HRC had won. Multiple positive developments for sure.
They wouldn't be forfeited. He's saying at a minimum they would need to be adjusted to only include the existing share count and not include any new issuance. It could also be very likely that in a settlement, the gov agrees to raise the exercise price on the warrant's, which would help with some recap and also promote a higher pps.
His comments are important IMO because many people are promoting that the warrants are illegal, there won't be any conversion of prfd to common, the gov will pay money back, etc. This is all total nonsense. While I could possibly see Trump not exercising warrants on the principle that it's not right given Citi, AIG, GM, etc., I think it's more likely a deal is structured that allows shareholders and the gov to benefit.
From Tim Howard:
"If there are settlement talks (as I believe there will be), I am confident that plaintiffs will not propose that Fannie and Freddie be recapitalized solely through retained earnings, largely for the reason you note: it would take too long to reach full capitalization. There will need to be capital raises (and probably conversion–whether optional or mandatory–of the junior preferred to common). There also will need to be some changes to the current rights of Treasury as holder of warrants for 79.9 percent of the common stock of the companies, if for no other reason than as they now stand Treasury would get warrants (equal to its remaining unexercised percentage of outstanding shares) on any NEW shares of equity issued by Fannie and Freddie, which is a deal-killer.
Beyond that, I’m sticking with my posture of not speculating on paths to get to a resolution where Fannie and Freddie end up “reformed, released and recapitalized” in a manner that leaves them in a position to successfully carry out the mission for which they originally were chartered, on terms that are accessible and affordable to a broad range of potential homebuyers. There are many ways to get there, and the people who will be negotiating this are well equipped to find the best one. They don’t need my advice, nor do I wish to try to handicap what they might do."
Sounds like they plan to attack her all day today including on Monday. Is there a limit to debate on her allowing for a move to vote on other cabinet nominee's?
It's not going to have anything to do with the warrants. The most logical action if you know you are keeping them is to immediately allow them to begin rebuilding capital.
Cohn on CNBC says Mnuchin will make GSE reform a top priority.
Cohn also told the Journal that the executive order will direct the Treasury department to change Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-backed mortgage lenders.
Could we see an end to the NWS?
Exactly what I expected. Great argument with such detailed fact. Don't post bullshit that you can't backup!
From Jan 31:
In his response, Mnuchin wrote that “any solution will be dependent upon the GSEs being capitalized properly and other such controls that eliminate risk to taxpayers.”
Any more inaccurate statements you'd like to make? What's next, the gov will be paying us all damages, pps $479.26. Stop being part of this boards problem of misinformation.
I understand every detail of the situation and am backing up what I'm saying with fact. Where's your proof?
Did the gov receive warrants under the original deal?
Are the warrants legal under the original deal?
Are the warrants valid as of today/right now?
Again, what you want to believe/happen isn't a valid reason for making inaccurate statements. It also decreases the value of having a group discussion board and places you right along side those that claim the recap has been done already and/or the pps is going to be $70, $200, or whatever other baseless figure.
Correct. The question is how much, is it with a combination of new prfd issuance and how are the warrants adjusted if gov is willing.
Your statement is completely naive. The warrants are in play and there is no concrete reason to think otherwise.
No it will not. Recapping through retained earnings alone would take years. Mnuchin isn't going to allow a 10 year recap IMO. There are many variables at play that many/most on this board simply either choose to ignore or don't understand.
Good news that Mnuchin is progressing, but the main issue remains for the common shares. How much money will be required for recap? How will that money be raised and how will the admin. utilize the warrants?
Everything else is meaningless dribble with no value add.
Added yesterday and today without a problem.
Notice from Fairholme regarding mandamus decision:
http://www.glenbradford.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/14-5243_Documents1.pdf
Given that Sessions has not yet been confirmed, do you think it's possible that an Obama hold over at DOJ could decide to pursue an en banc hearing regarding the mandamus ruling?
What I mean by precedent is that the court has over ruled the gov on a variety of priv assertions, therefore, there is now a legal precedent to obtain many more of the 11,000 docs under those similar assertions.
I'm not a lawyer, but I don't believe so regarding pres privilege. That said, we do get some key Blackrock docs and a key memo regarding a response to media story on DTA. Hopefully out of the 52 there are some additional smoking guns and a legal precedent to obtain many more.
It's a win, but it is also disappointing that Document 19, UST 00521902 in particular is not being released. The three judges are all libs and we don't have any way of knowing how damaging the released docs will be. Hopefully this legally opens the door for P's to obtain a huge swathe of the other 11,000!
I own both, but without a doubt the prfd are far safer than the common. It's not even debatable.
Disagree
Contractual obligation which only applies to prfd. Tattoo that