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Actually, I do... 999 out of 1000 situations JPS outperforms.. that last situation is one where a Trump coup succeeds btw
lol, JPS may have a quagmire trade, but there is no LONG trade on commons at all except a massive loser at close to 100% loss -- you could SHORT the common since the dilution is going to be brutal...
So, quagmire vs almost 100% loser trade? Take your pick...
I like Epstein, I like his writing and his arguments, and he has been making them for ten years -- ONE court has followed his argument, just ONE in the en banc ruling...
That is a sobering thought when you game out what SCOTUS will do in detail -- a ruling with face support for conservatorship rules but no payoff for plaintiffs is one that is really worrying
I am still not invested in JPS, it is a nice diversification against the markets since it won't follow them as Pagliara emphasized, but I think these hedge funds might get squeezed in a correction -- then the JPS gets sold with everything else
lol, careful what you wish for -- once the short covering is over, then the common price will revert to usual ratio to JPS valuation
Also called "Ouch!"
2015? Holy cow... is it oldies night on the FnF board?
Oi...
Berkowitz is NOT selling, JPS is a smaller percentage of his portfolio because JOE stock has more doubled - and that is the majority of the fund
BTW Started to move this week, and moving again today, so... Jack be quick
Yeah, and believe me when these Robinhooders start to pile in the volume and moves on these calls is a sight to behold -- breathtaking last CC and then again at Xmas when I sold all my positions last
On SoFi, I did research it a little bit, and what I saw was a broken and then repackaged company -- where is their moat?
In contrast, Stripe is a first mover with some really exciting internet intra-structure -- their customers include Amazon, Shopify and a lot more but they started with small company focus
The money is usually made on these SPAC with the initial announcements, right, but for me Stripe is one of the few of these companies I would hold 50% for the long term (depending on price ofc! If we reached DASH-city I will sell hand over fist...)
But who knows if Stripe comes in? I think it would be the biggest move we have seen in SPAC's if it is...
The PSTH warrants are not the way to go IMHO, their strike is $23 and they were trading at $10 last time I looked, I sold mine a while ago (and there is a clause that they can be bought in at around $34, if I remember the S1)
June calls if you want to be safer, March or Feb if you want to gamble -- at worst you sell into a run into the CC on Feb 19th
I am still waiting to buy into JPS, I have no cash or margin left... so...
But I do like the price now
Michael Kao is right on the JPS to common pricing mismatch, either JPS is going up a lot or common is going to implode - I think the latter when they exercise the warrants AND do a massive common raise (PLUS convert the JPS to common -- ye, I still believe that is the way...)
I am all in on PSTH right now... the biggest rumor is that a Stripe deal is incoming, other rumors are Starlink, Bloomberg...
I think it is quite possibly Stripe and that will truly bottle-rocket
I have been in and out of this 2-3 times very profitably, but this run-up we have PSH CC on Feb 19th - day AFTER Feb call expiration (!)-- and Ackman said last CC that Q1 was timeline for announcement (and initially he said 6 months which was Jan 22nd, so we are in the landing zone)
Unlike bullshit EV stocks, Stripe is a long term compounder, probably one of the best out there -- so worth the risk for me
Feb calls are still (imho) not crazy priced -- wait till week of CC to se crazy, last CC I made a killing on the $30's that week. I am mainly March calls
Michael Kao has some interesting thoughts:
The valuation implied by common is completely spurious imho. Watch what happens when JY exercises warrants.
— Michael Kao (@UrbanKaoboy) January 18, 2021
You just had to go there?
Still here brotha, still here...
They point out in comments the JOE made a run while FnF did its patented tank...
No comment... LOL
Short covering is finished?
Desperate stuff...
You cannot short squeeze the US Treasury -- especially when it is the majority owner (80%) AND the securities are in conservatorship
LOL -- even Redditers will see the problems
OTC stocks don't even trade on Robinhood, so - yes!
Louise Linton movie trailer... see the article below for the movie trailer. This is one of the worst movies of all time lol
https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/news/haha-what-steven-mnuchin-s-wife-louise-linton-made-a-movie-with-ed-westwick/ar-BB1df5yZ?ocid=msedgntp
I believe Moelis wrote the script, Mnuchin produced the movie and Calabria directed -- was slated to premiere in 2017, but "two weeks" and all that...
Whatever you say...
Thought you sold? Oh right, that is after SCOTUS...
50-60% of Robinhood accounts held GME or AMC, so there was a lot of money chasing them -- FNMA does not even trade on Robinhood!
So, NO< you are not seeing a GME move lol
LOL, too funny... not a hope in hell... is there 144% shorted here?
Oh my lawdy
Michael Kao wants us to worry about hedge funds getting a taste of their own medicine, he is an interesting read - but give me a break lol:
Musing 5 of the Day: For those cheering the WSB “short assault” mob, be careful what you wish for. When short-selling was banned in 2008, bona fide hedgers could no longer short equity against their portfolios...cont’d.
— Michael Kao (@UrbanKaoboy) January 29, 2021
I think their IPO is done at least for the foreseeable future, the business is about to collapse
We will hear complaints about how it is impossible to transfer accounts because they will be overwhelmed...
"We ride" on remand back to lower court for a 2-3 year wait on discovery and then motions to dismiss and then, maybe, a trial...
Enjoy that ride? No bueno
No, no, Biden will do a 4 year recap before releasing them... oh right, Parrot and Zandi have Biden's ear on housing, guess not
lol, easy, all the Hedge Funds who trade at grown-up brokers that never closed down trading...
You got got to hate Robinhood and IB for these moves - none of the grownup brokers did this...
Robinhood is in real trouble, 50-60% of their accounts had holdings in GME and/or AMC. Those people are pissed, rightly, and will be moving en masse...
FNMA certainly has the features these Kamikaze investors in GME seem to want
Not going to hold $2... short here did you say?
Lots more money for Biden affordable housing programs - great!
JPS is weather vane for common -- only time before commons goes red too
JPS still going lower, through the 20% par value now -- wondering if some of these hedgies are having to sell to cover their busted shorts? Could get real ugly if they have to sell JPS...
JPS down -- commons would always follow
Going to bleed a lot lower...
Creepy Kevin Spacey... ewhhhh.
So Howard is once again betting on the good intentions of the incoming administration and its willingness to expend political capital on a resolution...
I am not saying that won't happen, but history suggests otherwise. Hope I am wrong. We shall see
Quintiple trains alert -- taking it down shortly...
I thought Pagliara's point about about buying FnF as a counter-cyclical buy was an interesting argument -- it is a special situation and *largely* trades independently from the markets
All depends how SCOTUS rules, but I liked Pagliara's rationale and I will look at his fund performance and holdings
These contrarian's often get it right, the Man in Miami's bet on JOE has done great recently...
The presentation contains one nugget -- Treasury in Lamberth court ordered discovery turned over huge cache of documents a couple of months ago
Pagliara's main thesis is a little like Michael Kao's: Basically (a) Pagliara admits he was naive to think it was politically doable for anyone to accept NWS was illegal and return overpayment so (b) SCOTUS ruling is only feasible way to get that done... and (c) he thinks David Thompson is right SCOTUS will do that or adminstration will settle
So it all comes to a tossup on the ruling of the highest federal court in the land -- hence part of the price dump. Problem is also we have a new Dem administration with who knows what policies and goals... the other part of the price dump
Got to tick down a but on JPS before it gets interesting
Hmm, not sure you will payoff on this bet - but we may find out.
More arterial blood pumping red on FnF today... my prediction.