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Stendhal already has AXAL rights to South America. I believe they even made a payment for the AIM2CERV trial. But I agree with you that BMY might be the most probable partner for AXAL-DUAL. I am confident that if the backend royalties are just 10% for EU, China and Japan (Biocon has India rights), then ADXS will receive more than 100 million in upfront payment. We'll see how well they negotiate.
"So they are 1/8 covered already"
I wouldn't go so far. We don't know what percentage of buys were retail vs funds. Could also have to consider new retail buys(I know of one buyer).
I disagree there, Bourbon. You are not accounting for the fact that half of today's trades were long trades. In addition, a good percentage of the trades, long and short, belong to the hedge funds themselves. So no, the volume you see doesn't provide a good our complete picture.
I'm all for a good deal. But I don't see a buyout happening when the price has been so artificially depressed. I do see a partnership with a sizable upfront payment happening soon, and then eventually followed by a buyout.
One and only one reason why they are not covering their short: they are UNABLE to. They simply cannot find 10 million shares in this price range.
There is a very good chance that a sizable proportion of the total short interest is held by long institutions themselves and they likely don't want to use their own long shares to cover. The alternative is to run the price up to get more shares released, but they risk a monster run covering so many shares in the open market.
The net result is that the shorts are stuck, hoping that the company has an actual material failure (not made up failures) and simultaneously suppressing the stock while waiting for it using HFT.
It's just that retail frustration is visible on this board but shorts are frustrated too. They have been relentless for 2 years with the suppression and are still coming up close to empty in drawing out shares.
The people you are referring to, including me, are not clinging to HFT. We are simply acknowledging it as it is "verifiably" abusing the stock (for the 10 millionth time, watch L2).
I do acknowledge the company's errors and failings. I always thought monetizing one or two constructs to fund the others would have been the right way to go and largely mitigate risk. DOC should have done this during the biotech bull run of 2015, just as ADRO did. He didn't and eventually got canned. The company also has a habit of misreading investor anticipation, as seen during the investor day update.
However, none of it excuses the utterly abusive HFT going on here and the artifically low valuation imposed by hedge fund shorts. The evidence of this manipulation is slapping people in the face; one has to have lost sensation to fail to acknowledge it.
Yep, it has to be someone who specializes in mass/social panic. Lol.
I don't think you and I, or for that matter anyone else, can get this HFT reality across to many well meaning longs who are now gripped by fear.
It is truly bizarre that only a handful of us are observing the actual live trading even as so many are scared or upset. I see nothing but a constant, never ending stream of 100/200/300 share algo trades, being repeatedly bought and sold, interspersed with actual trades, including sizable block buys.
No tute drops out in one day, especially with no negative news. Even if some institutional long was disappointed by the lack of a monetary deal already, they wouldn't be foolish enough to dump a large volume of shares in a single session and hurt their own selling price. Consider the fact that the stock OPENED nearly 8% lower, which is a clear indication of short activity and not a long selling.
Also, half the volume today is from buying and short covering. We will also see the last few trades of the day at 4 PM EST to get a sense of the HFT direction tomorrow.
Agreed. This whole buyout talk out at below basement level prices is what the hedge shorts are pushing for. I doubt that anyone in management is so foolish as to fall for it.
Steve,
I am not a fan of disproportionate stock reactions, either to the upside or the downside WHEN there is no real news.
So what is your theory here? Are institutions selling off? The stock would be down a lot more if that were the case. Are some retail longs selling? I think so, especially those with stop losses.
However, ADXS should never have dropped to single digits over the last two years in the first place. The shorts have absolutely created a new normal in the minds of most retail and are clearly working in an organized way - getting poorly researched and barely truthful articles written and using HFT to beat the stock down at every turn (I don't know what to say to you if you refuse to watch L2 to check for yourself).
Now, I acknowledge that the company has made some mistakes, especially with planning and communication. The investor day fiasco being one. And knowing the short influence on the stock, they would have done well not communicating yesterday and rather waited until there was a partner.
But nothing justifies the stock action today. It is pure, verifiable HFT garbage in reaction to a degree of vagueness from the company.
That's truly unfortunate, Ig. There is no question that the hedge fund shorts would be gleeful today, especially after seeing the fearful reactions from longs here.
While it is human nature to be distraught when something like this happens, and it is an utter travesty that HFT is even allowed to exist, I hope scared longs realize that if they held their stock yesterday ABSOLUTELY nothing changed today. If anything, the new CEO went out of his way to overemphasize his intent to focus on the stock price.
Absolutely. This action is in no way a reaction from disgruntled retail, and certainly not from any long institutions. This was simply an exercise to shock retail longs using the brute force of HFT before a deal materializes.
The company's only mistake (a bone headed one) here was to issue a business blueprint instead of simply announcing the deal when it happens. I added more stock today.
This is nothing but HFT shock and awe directed towards retail longs. While you have some retail longs selling and stop losses being taken out, there is also an equal amount of buying and covering going on.
Any news yesterday besides "We have a partner, this is the big upfront payment" was clearly planned as a reason to attack the stock. Well, they got their chance.
While I am truly skeptical that the company is helping out their major investors cover their short, who might have been shorting against the box until major positive news released, it is not hard to leap to that suspicion. After all these years, the company ought to know that the shorts attack anything appearing vague. Having said that I suspect that a deal is much closer than many think.
Fbg, while I agree in theory that the company could be sold I suspect that they will first get the price up through other material news to negotiate from a higher base price. We'll see I guess.
I agree with Ignatius and Gantor completely.
But I would suggest to any long here who is frustrated that they get access to L2 (TD Ameritrade's ThinkorSwim is a great option). You will be able to verify for yourself that a vast majority of today's trading is pure, unadulterated HFT. 100, 200 and 300 share algo trades constituting about 80-85% of the volume (selling and covering them over and over progressively lower), interspersed with actual trades.
While short hedge funds attack most small cap biotechs mercilessly, there are very few biotechs that are attacked based on information that has not even been officially PR'd by the company yet. For example, attacking the results of the FAWCETT study today (even though it met the criteria for moving to stage 2 in a very sick population of patients).
The hedge fund shorts follow ADXS closely; they scour message boards for retail sentiment, write deliberately vague and misleading articles about its stock and science (think the yahoo article this last Friday), pre-program their algos to crash the stock (think the GOG results on September 17, 2015, Investor Day in June 2017 etc.).
These are facts about ADXS' stock and the manipulation occurring in it does not need additional proof if one is logical and has eyes open (once again, kindly watch L2). But I do agree that the only way to get past this short stranglehold, particularly in this price range, is for the company to release monster news - preferably a multi-hundred million partnership plus a series of regulatory breakthroughs.
I hear ya, my friend. That blurb from fbg is now tattooed on my brain. I am worried that I may start humming it like a sick song that one cannot get out of the head.
Gantor,
My guess regarding a 50 to 100 million upfront payment is only for EU. But I think there's a good chance we won't see an EU-only deal for AXAL to begin with. A combined EU-US deal is more likely in my opinion and get a significantly higher upfront payment - north of 200 million, which should remove the market's dilution concerns going forward. If we mimic ADRO's Novartis deal, revenue sharing after this kind of upfront payment will be something like 55% BP and 45% ADXS. However, I do admit that I am being conservative here, given that we are in Phase 3 and have an SPA/ATMP.
Whether ADXS will sign away much more than 50-55% of future revenues in order to receive an even larger upfront payment - something like 500 million - will, I think, depend on whether management intends to sell the company in the near future using the higher SP floor resulting from an AXAL deal. In that case, we may get (who knows) the half billion upfront payment and agree to reduce our revenue sharing percentage to the teens.
We would still have ADXS-PSA, HER2 and HOT to strike deals for and a solid AXAL deal would greatly increase market anticipation for them. But I seriously doubt we would do any of those deals then. Management will simply use the higher floor (which I'm guessing would be in the mid 20s) resulting from the AXAL deal to negotiate a fair buyout for the entire company.
Let's hope these things happen, since this is all speculation anyway. All we can do is to hope that management uses partnerships/buyouts other good companies had made as guardrails to make our own.
You might very well be right, Ig. If I had to I would bet the same.
While we don't require an EU partner for EMA submission, I do believe that we will find one. Also, while my guess is only as good as anyone else's, I suspect that this extended quiet period is due to negotiations regarding a comprehensive distribution plan when AXAL is approved in the EU. It just strengthens their application and avoids delays down the line.
I am in the camp which believes that the EU partner will also bag US rights, even if the distribution plan might have to be hashed out later. I have some questions though, primarily whether we would be distributing AXAL or DUAL in the US.
With regard to an upfront payment, if the partner is just for the EU I realistically expect something around $50 million, although I would like to see $100 million. But I would imagine that would take away a much larger chunk of future EU revenues. However, if they have a US + EU partner, I hope they don't settle for anything less than a $200 million upfront payment and at least 45% future revenues (as ADRO did with Novartis in 2015), considering AXAL is in Phase 3, has an SPA and ADXS has done all the hard work up until this point. These are numbers we I can foresee if we agree to become the minority partner in future revenue sharing.
But if we go with the hybrid model (usually with smaller BPs) that ADXS had discussed during the annual investor day conference, the upfront payment may fall short of our expectations, although we will retain a majority of future revenues.
I personally would prefer to see the non-hybrid option for AXAL to get the shorts off of our backs and reset us to a higher base price first and foremost.
More than the technicals, which in ADXS' case are almost always deliberately set by hedge fund algos to favor shorts, I have been focusing on buying/short covering in relation to daily volume (even when low). I would expect the short volume to be down at least several hundred thousand to may be over a million in the next short report.
But I agree with you that ADXS had a bunch of disappointing head fakes in the last couple years, and the last one during investor presentation was certainly a self goal. But the appointment of a new interim CEO and the catalysts lined up in the short to medium window from here on might keep investor optimism and SP uptrend more sustainable this time around until we find a fair valuation. I hope we don't get into buyout talks until then. We'll see.
"What I don't know obviously if this is the beginning stage of a planned run up, or merely an attempt to build a technical base to lure in the momentum traders and take it up to short it from a higher level?"
Good question, Gantor. My guess, based on past instances of investor anticipation, would be that the uptrend would continue and pick up further momentum into the teens (and may be further) if there is solid material news at the end of this quiet period. Anything short of it and the short algos will beat the SP back down. Somehow, this time around I expect to see something that sets us at a much higher floor.
From L2: Relatively small but decent amount of buying and short covering going on today while trying to pin the SP at 7.
The "real" volume today is around 20K (from observing L2), excluding algo trades that constitute the rest of today's overall volume of 135K. This is a good sign: longs absolutely unwilling to sell in this price range, even if they are not buying more. So short hedgies and MMs are just trading sideways day after day hoping to shakedown longs through frustration and boredom. Ain't happening. May be they will end up frustrating themselves eventually. LOL.
Yes, quite likely. Also, I have noticed that the daily volume has been going down quite a bit in this price range. Even with all the laddering down using HFT, I don't think the hedge shorts are able to harvest enough shares to cover even a minor fraction of their extraordinarily large short position.
I had surmised previously, like Catt, that Adage was perhaps the short cartel leader playing this down currently only to cover and reverse at an opportune time. But I saw your posts indicating that they are definitely not behind this multi year long suppression. Assuming your are right, I sure hope Adage, Broadfin and FMR are just waiting for that one major positive catalyst to pounce on the short players. I think it might be an EU partnership or perhaps something with Merck.
Jckrdu, I agree with you. Someone appears to have the intention to cover their short in this price range. I now see a 100k+ share block sitting on the bid at 6.22 on L2. I expect to see a large share block transferred at the very close of the day from the MM to the hedge fund.
Thanks, James. Let's hope we do see some really positive combo data as well at the conference.
James, my understanding from the PR this morning was that there will be data presented only from the monotherapy (ADXS-PSA) ARM of the combo study and not from the combination ARM.
While the benefit to patients appears evident from the statement you cited, it appears to be from monotherapy. Do you have a sense of why the combo data is not yet being presented? If my memory serves me right, the patient enrollment for the PSA combo trial started in December 2015, although I am not sure when they started enrolling for the combo ARM.
I honestly am not sure if I am being impatient or if it generally does take pretty long for combo patient enrollment to initial data. Any thoughts from your side?
Tinfoil, you need to make up your own mind about your conspiracy.
"If they wanted to cover, they could. But they don't, because they have a plan. "
If you think they could have covered their 10M volume short position in this price range by shaking others' shares loose, why would they even need an offering at $5? We are already pretty close to it.
In any case, for those with a slightly less conspiratorial mind, the idea that anyone - even hedge funds and MMs - could cover 10M shares in this low price range ($6-8), without causing a massive run up, is utterly fantastical.
Dear Tinfoil, I will quote one of my favorite authors to respond to your conspiratorial idea: Assertions that are made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.
Otherwise, we can all spend every minute of our days trying to disprove fantastical theories and so called "ideas".
Unfortunately, the only thing that will change the stock's direction is major positive material news.
While in a sane, un-manipulated market individual stocks move in the same direction of, and in some sensible proportion to, the underlying sector indices, ADXS is being played by short hedge funds and MMs using some cruelly suppressive HFT programs. When the XBI or IBB move +1%, we move a few cents up or +0.5%, if at all; if they move -1%, we move -5% or more. This is not normal given the absence of underlying (and undisclosed) negatives for the stock.
It is an absolutely evil joke to say that the US has "free markets" at this point. We instead have markets with:
1) Unimaginably, mind-bogglingly unequal access (HFT can implement 1 million+ trades in a minute across various exchanges versus less than 10 using an average retail platform).
2) Shamefully poor disclosure regulations (where long positions in equities can be disclosed after 45 days and short positions NEVER EVER) and
3) Rampant institutional and hedge fund access to inside information
I would urge frustrated retail investors to just wait it out if you are confident about the science of the company. There is absolutely no other way to win for retail. And for your own well being, do not put all eggs in one basket, as it is a sure fire route to further frustration. There are so many other stocks to trade and take profits.
Lastly, I would really like it if the company communicates soon with investors about their direction UNLESS they have positive material news that renders communication unnecessary. Somehow, I sense that it will be the latter.
I agree. I don't want a sweetheart private placement that helps the shorts to happen. But I wouldn't be completely shocked if ADXS met them halfway - enough to help their favored funds, primarily Adage and Fidelity - but screwing over the rest in a short squeeze with the favored funds' help. Sweetheart deals are known to happen in the biotech world quite often. I invested in ADXS because I greatly believe in the platform and to a degree in the efficiency (generally speaking) of management to advance the science through the clinic and the FDA, but not their business ethics. Most biotech CEOs and managements are opportunists (mostly due to greed but sometimes due to a lack of choice).
Look at the recent INO dilution to the tune of $75 million. The CEO is also a scientist but he never loses a chance to screw over retail. To ADXS' credit, they have never diluted their retail holders to the degree that many other biotechs have diluted theirs. Touch wood, I don't intend to jinx that record.
Bourbon, I agree that it appears simple enough to cover 10m short shares over 2 years but it actually is not, especially if you want to cover REALLY LOW (which is the whole point of shorting).
As Ig indicated in another post, funds like Adage enlist MMs to do their dirty job, which is to collect falling shares from retail, and take them over in BULK (so they can disclose their increased position at once and not tip off their incremental share collection to the market).
Approximately 95% of trades every day (averaged over the last 2 years with exception days), as you can clearly see on level 2, are back and forth trades between MMs themselves. They are fishing relentlessly for falling shares but they are not getting all they need. As it happens, there are a big bunch of longs here with big holdings who are simply refusing to budge. I see that their only way out to is to cover from their box or convince ADXS to bail them out with a private placement.
I like your response better, short and simple! Mine will hopefully help some newbies.
Crcook, while the HFT manipulation itself is extremely in-your-face and evident on level 2, there is no way to know who exactly is responsible. But Catt's guess that it is Adage, or a cartel led of short hedge funds led by Adage, is highly plausible.
I have a theory on what they hope to achieve. This is no conspiracy theory, just a plausible deduction.
- Adage must have known about the patient death that they suspected would result in a clinical hold (which did happen on October 2, 2015) and started shorting in July 2015. It is very easy for these hedge funds to get inside info about the companies they invest in.
- They must have expected to cover their short positions either using retail long shares that would be harnessed from the SP drop over the next several months following the hold or by getting ADXS to issue them shares at a pre-determined price in a dilution.
- The former option is a relentless work-in progress and the latter (ADXS dilution) has never happened at a volume that would have allowed them to really cover. Recall that Adage had filed an FTC form to allow them to acquire far more than 19% of the company in July or August of 2015. This never came about and the boot on the SP was quite possibly a ploy to get DOC to relent and issue them new shares so they could finally cover, especially as retail share fishing has proved to be very difficult.
- I expect Adage and other short funds to eventually be forced to cover from their box of long shares (less likely) or come to an agreement with ADXS to issue them new shares shortly before a buyout or a massive partnership for EU distribution. In return ADXS might get a commitment to finally and permanently remove the boot from the SP and float freely. The non-hedge funds shorts will then be roasted and served and dinner for all longs - hedges and retail.
Am I a 100% sure about this? No, but I think it is very likely if you reverse engineer it from the incessant manipulation observed on level 2.
LOL at the mental picture of your example.
Ig, it is truly comical. One thing that I credit shorts for is that they are generally relentless in propagandizing against their chosen stocks and focus on a very small set of things that they perceive as being longs' blind spots or ignorance.
While HFT manipulation has been the monstrous constant for 2 years, continuing to dictate over 95% of all trades every single trading day, they couple it with one or more issues of scare mongering. Now that one of those issues - DOC and his greed/mismanagement - is moot, they are now replacing it with the "permanent damage caused by DOC's actions" and "the science must not be very good since the stock price is low".
I bet some longs will fall for this.
Catt, I agree with you 100%. While I am not sure that Adage is the only culprit here, I do think they are playing a massive role in keeping the boot on this stock.
Anyone who is a serious long and fails/refuses to understand the trading going on in level 2 for over 2 years is simply not grasping what you have been bemoaning and yelling about for so long.
Attila, I acknowledge the possibility that the company is currently working on something truly material and significant. I would be really surprised if we don't hear from them in the very near future. I was only talking about the company's recent lack of market intuition given how they issue PRs, even otherwise positive ones, that appear out of place in the context of current investor expectations, especially following the CEO's departure. I would rather they remain silent until they are ready to share material news (the exception being SEC mandated disclosures). By the way, I'm only talking about the present time when investors are awaiting clarity about the company's direction and/or strategy.
I think smart communication is extremely important for companies that are constantly in the cross hairs of crooked hedge funds and shorts. I remain extremely optimistic about the company and stock, save for this one quibble.
That is factually incorrect. That $23/share is the 1-year target price of ADXS, which does not account for all of the company's pipeline or products. That number is subject to change (as all price targets are) based on reevaluation by analysts at any time. It is not an eternally fixed number that would refuse to budge in light of new developments, such as an EU application/partnership, canine vaccine approval, PSA updates etc.
Unless the company is being sold tomorrow morning, the price target our current share price are completely devoid of any significance. In certain instances, such as in the case of TBRA and CPXX, to recall recent examples, even the current share price was utterly irrelevant in the buyout evaluation.
Wouldn't you just be glad to see a buyout? What is this obsession with pre-determining a buyout price and insisting that it WILL/HAS TO be a low ball number? If it is a terrible buyout price, which I seriously doubt, there is not much that you or I could do to prevent it. But why insist on it?
Advaxis has a communication problem. Today's PR being a case in point. So what's wrong with communicating about their science being recognized in a peer reviewed publication? On its own, absolutely nothing; in fact it is actually great. But it is the timing that is completely ridiculous.
Advaxis ought to be aware that investors are extremely keen to know the company's strategy in the aftermath of Dan's departure 2 weeks ago. It could be a conference call by management to lay it out or a lengthy statement by the interim CEO or perhaps the striking of a major deal that would be self-explanatory with regard to direction (or even a buyout, although it is very unlikely, since the SP is ridiculously low to justify what I believe has to be a multi-billion valuation).
Many of us here know that the science is great, we've got the best ever data or at least great data in every indication, to the extent that we know them and that the most significant reason for where we are is the incessant HFT manipulation by shorts, with a distant second reason arguably being poor risk management or non-monetization of assets.
But Advaxis continues to make some rookie communication mistakes, which not only embolden shorts but also signify a tone-deaf quality on the part of management. This is typical of most speculative biotechs, but I don't consider Advaxis to be one. You shouldn't communicate about non-material issues that investors care very little about (or not at all) when the real issues to be communicated at this time (strategy, direction or a partnership to nullify the first two) remain unaddressed. The same goes for bad communication about what appears to be a dulling of relationship with AZN (leaving silly clues in a presentation).
While the shorts do their thing anyway, the company shouldn't provide that make people go "Is this the best update you've got to share while we are waiting for something vastly more important"? All significant catalysts that we hope to see materialize may still happen anytime, but I just dislike a general lack of common sense that emboldens the shorts.