While we don't require an EU partner for EMA submission, I do believe that we will find one. Also, while my guess is only as good as anyone else's, I suspect that this extended quiet period is due to negotiations regarding a comprehensive distribution plan when AXAL is approved in the EU. It just strengthens their application and avoids delays down the line.
I am in the camp which believes that the EU partner will also bag US rights, even if the distribution plan might have to be hashed out later. I have some questions though, primarily whether we would be distributing AXAL or DUAL in the US.
With regard to an upfront payment, if the partner is just for the EU I realistically expect something around $50 million, although I would like to see $100 million. But I would imagine that would take away a much larger chunk of future EU revenues. However, if they have a US + EU partner, I hope they don't settle for anything less than a $200 million upfront payment and at least 45% future revenues (as ADRO did with Novartis in 2015), considering AXAL is in Phase 3, has an SPA and ADXS has done all the hard work up until this point. These are numbers we I can foresee if we agree to become the minority partner in future revenue sharing.
But if we go with the hybrid model (usually with smaller BPs) that ADXS had discussed during the annual investor day conference, the upfront payment may fall short of our expectations, although we will retain a majority of future revenues.
I personally would prefer to see the non-hybrid option for AXAL to get the shorts off of our backs and reset us to a higher base price first and foremost.
