Is a long-term holder
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SORRY! The post above was intended to be a reply to JJ, not IH.
Hi CHK: The ONLY trading I do these days is in calls and puts. I have had my core holding of TSLA shares for many years now and I plan to hold those shares unless something drastic happens.
Boston
As you know the internet can be used to make your point...or demolish it. Here is an example. You found a story that shows EV cars are more likely to catch fire. Well, here are three others that lead the DEMOLITION SQUAD.
1.https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ev-fire-more-dangerous-likely-than-ice-one-david-bott#:~:text=This%20suggests%20that%20ICE%20cars,ambiguity%20on%20the%20number!)&text=This%20suggests%20that%20ICE%20cars%20are,more%20likely%20to%20catch%20fire.
2.https://gmauthority.com/blog/2023/11/ev-fires-less-likely-than-ice-vehicle-fires-research-finds/
3.https://www.greencarstocks.com/statistics-show-ice-vehicle-fires-20-time-more-likely-than-ev-fires/
Here are two news stories- one about the famous F-150 Lightning, and the other about GM:
Boston: as you well know, one Tesla catching fie n a crowded showroom or a vehicle carrier will inevitable cause other cars to catch fire. So the number of cars lost is NOT important.
Simple agreement or disagreement with a an opinion offered with no basis is just as bad as a raa-raa post!
Boston, much as I respect your opinion, I ALWAYS check the facts that your opinion is based on. In this particular case, you seem to be saying that Tesla is more prone to catch fire or spontaneously combust than any other brand. ALL the evidence I have been able to dig up indicates just the opposite.
The data I have from TESLA is the following:
Number of fires between 2012 and 2018: One per 170 million miles driven.
Number of fires between 2012 and 2019: One per 175 million miles driven.
Number of fires between 2012 and 2020: One per 205 million miles driven.
Number of fires between 2012 and 2021: One per 210 million miles driven.
by way off comparison, NFPA data indicates that a fire occurs every 19 million miles. This stat is mentioned in all 4 time periods above.
Of course the data is provided by Tesla, and therefore, you may not believe it.
Fortunately there is corroboration of the fact that EVs in general are much LESS likely to catch on fire than gasoline or diesel cars.
These links are just examples. There are lots more.
1. https://gmauthority.com/blog/2023/11/ev-fires-less-likely-than-ice-vehicle-fires-research-finds/
2. https://core.verisk.com/Insights/Emerging-Issues/Articles/2023/August/Week-4/Electric-Vehicle-Fire-Risk
3. https://www.kbb.com/car-news/study-electric-vehicles-involved-in-fewest-car-fires/
Boston: You acknowledged that Elon is smarter than you. However, you did not address the following additional points I made in my post:
1. Tesla has the data on all spontaneous firs,
2. Tesla seems to have fewer problems than the competition.
CHK: You are one of the posters on the board who help keep my chin up!
Link please
JJ: I need to know which stock you think can keep us with TSLA over the long Hal (10+ years(. I am not married to Elon or TSLA.
Boston: Perhaps I have been too quick to dismiss your theories as QUACKERY that sometimes inhabits brilliant minds, However, given the facts that:
1. Elon is as smart as you and others, if not WAY smarter.
2. TESLA has the actual data on spontaneous battery fires.
3. Your post contains some nuggets about Tesla's preventive actions "This is likely a reason Tesla is switching to larger battery cells in addition to employing magnetic attenuating honeycomb sandwich battery pack."
Perhaps THAT is the reason why Tesla cars are MUCH safer than those of the competition. How do you think a discussion of the Hutchison Effect goes over at GM and FORD?
JJ: What is really sad to me is that a long-term investor is throwing in the towel, and blaming Musk for his actions, Elon has ALWAYS been the inspiration for major advances in the technology. His long term decisions (for instance developing the supercharger to the point that a brand new supercharger can be manufactured for about $10,000 MORE than the cost to REPAIR other chargers!!!!). I cannot deny that his personality sometimes gets in the way of steady progress in stock price, which is based more on fundamentals than people realize. IT TAKES BALLS TO SELL TSLA AT AROUND $210 WITH Q4 EARNINGS LOOMING. The shorts are either stupid or not; however, they sure have BALLS!
Boston: you are more practical than I realized based on your desire to go off-grid and using tesla cells in spite of your reservations. No less an authority than the Department of Energy has dispelled the myth that EVs pollute more over their lifetimes than gas cars. See
https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/electric-vehicle-myths
IH: Yet another inane post. I do not know if you are referring to me as a "seventh grader". However, please not that Elon and people like him are plentiful, and yet, your theory is "not is readily understood"!
PIRATE: I truly hope that you have put your money where your mouth is: BIG OIL and LEGACY AUTO,
IH: WOW! My opinion is as follows:
Flying saucer technology would be a game changer today, and more so a few years ago. If ANYBODY had it, he/they would use it to disrupt!
CRAZY doe snot begin to describe it! Let me point out some rather obvious flaws in your post:
1. If we have the technology, when do you think we will use it?
2. WIKIPEDIA, which is a more trusted source than you, has a VIKTOR SCHAUBRGER, who was a forester. He DID develop theories on water. Based on my scientific leaning, I believe in proof, which is sadly lacking in Herr Schauberger's theories.."Through his experiments and observations, Schauberger developed practical applications for his theories, including water treatment and energy generation.""Unfortunately. that is ALL WIKIPEDIA has on Schauberger's practicalapplicationt.If you have any more, please provide a link.
Boston: You are telling half the story here, and you have an inconsistency in your second ;and third lines (how can you use a lt of gas for construction while not releasing 'much in the way of pollution').We know that burning gas causes pollution and when pollution sources are scattered, it is hard o do much about them. THAT is where Tesla comes in. By using electricity it creates zero pollution in cars; instead pollution is concentrated at the power plant where remedial measures can be taken.
Boston: As I suspected, you are a scientist/engineer. with some connections to MIT. By the way, I do not care what you were doing at that precise moment; what I meant was what you do for a living.
The Hutchinson effect, to me, sounds like the UFOs. You may be on to something but the evidence is awfully hard to find. In the meantime, I am certain that you cold be contributing to Elon's mission, instead of opposing Tesla.
Pirate: You said: '"renewables" are not renewable". That statement is, as you know well, incorrect.. If current manufacture of solar panels and wind turbines need some components derived from crude oil, THAT does not make the energy source non-renewable.
Musk Compensation Package
There has been a lot of chatter today on X about Elon's new compensation package. His last compensation package, approved in 2018, was supposed to last for TEN YEARS. HOWEVER, Tesla met all twelve milestones in under 5 years with the final tranche vesting fully in 2022. That means ELON worked the whole year off 23 with ZERO compensation. Details of the 2018 package are found in
https://ggsitc.com/insights/executive-compensation-teardown/tesla-executive-compensation-teardown-3.
Before you go off on how much money Elon has and why he needs more, remember that he took a huge risk by agreeing to forego his salary and all short term incentives for the large payouts of stock options which were worthless if the stock price did not rise. In other words he made money ONLY if investors made money! As pointed out in the link above, Musk's compensation plan was EVEN RISKIR than the risky plan JEFF BEZOS agreed to t Amazon: "Stock options with 0 initial value can go underwater. Because of that, they are significantly riskier than restricted stock that forms the base of the Amazon LTIPs. Unlike stock options, RSUs generally preserve some value unless the company goes bankrupt and the stock price plummets to $0." Working for zero compensation is galling, no matter how much money one has. Especially after making over $11 billion per year!
Therefore, if anybody deserves a new compensation package, I think it is ELON. What do you think?
IH: Translate, PLEASE.
KING: When you are stumped, JUST PUNT!
Gpheart: Like you, I charge my Tesla at home. Unlike you, I live in sunny Southern California where today's low was in the 40s and the high is forecast to be in the mid-60s. I think my wife and I drive more than you; because we use about 500kWh per month and pay about $100.. You said: "Buying gasoline is just not an efficient use of my money!" I would add OR MY TIME at the end of that sentence.
IH: In other words you do not like Teslas, not because Teslas are bad, but because they do not fit your image.
Pirate: Your post gives us no clue as to what part of George;'s pst you called nonsense. Therefore, please elaborate.
The reason EV range drops like a rock if cabin heat is turned on is the inefficiency of electric heat vs combustion heat. See https://www.richmondsair.com/hvac-guide/equipment-101/gas-vs-electric-heater#:~:text=Efficiency%20and%20cost&text=
However, please keep in mind that heat pump technology, which Elon has mentioned many times, can raise heating efficiency well over 100%! See
https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/02/14/1068582/everything-you-need-to-know-about-heat-pumps/#:~:text=Heat%20pumps%27%20real%20climate%20superpower,they%27re%20using%20in%20electricity
Boston: Of all the bears on this board, you are probably the most honorable, that one can have a reasonable discussion with. In my humble opinion, you would have something to contribute at TESLA. Please tell me and the board what you are doing at the moment.
In my humble opinion, you have jumped on the "Hutchison Effect" conspiracy theory to your own detriment. Don't you think that NHTSA, which is out to stop TESLA in any way possible would be hindered by labelling a paper 'classified'?
Besides, the article you linked spoke of 'tens of thousands of cars'. if they could legitimately have said 'hundreds' instead of 'tens', do you think they wouldn't? Therefore, the actual number is probably below 200,000. I am not downplaying that many cars; however, please bear in mind that Tesla has produced well over 5 MILLION cars. Therefore less than 4% have supposedly had the problem you are describing. I am currently on my 4th Tesla, so I guess I am fairly safe for my remaining 20 years or so on this earth!
KING: 'car only worth the battery': Please answer why other manufacturers with access to battery technology cannot produce a profitable car?
BOSTON: if it is possible to perform "inspection of battery cells for dendrite buildup to help prevent spontaneous combustion events and maybe even some out of control events if a surge in power due to thermal runaway" are you certain it is not being Dom]ne in TESLAS?
Boston: I guess the refereed article did NOT say hundreds of thousands because the total number was under 200,000, Even 200,000 is close to 4% of ALL Teslas ever made ANYWHERE. You would think, you would hear MORE about this problem, would you not? I personally have owned JUDST four Teslas so far. Perhaps, when my number hits 25, zi may experience what you have been harping on for years.
King: Other than the problems mentioned by Boston, swapping a battery makes nos\ sense to me for the following reasons:
1. Battery age. Why Would ANYBODY swap a brnd new battery for a definitely older battery?
2. Scheduling: Yes, the sea[ itself takes 3 minutes. BUT it needs two be scheduled, How many of us KNOW when we need a swap>
Str8: My apologies for making the wrong assumption.
TSLA should be at well below $200, so it can JUMP after tomorrow's earnings report.
IHuser: As you probably know COLD WEATHER affects all cars, whether they are EVs or ICE. The fact is that ICE cars take a bigger hit than EVs. According to the ENERGY DEPARTMENT, gasoline cars lose 15% of their estimated mileage, while EVs drop only 12%. See https://www.here.com/learn/blog/ev-range-vs-temperature#:~:text=It%27s%20easy%20to%20take%20for,same%20conditions%20in%20milder%20weather and
https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/fuel-economy-cold-weather#:~:text=Cold%20weather%20and%20winter%20driving,to%204%2Dmile)%20trips.
So, please learn to do some research before posting drivel!
If you were really a straight shooter, surely you would point out ONE rather obvious difference between the TESLA recall and most, if not ALL, of the remaining recalls. Thwe difference s that the Tesla recall is NOT a recall at all, it is just ANOTHER OTA software update!
KING: Please explain why a battery swap makes more sense than a SUPERCHARGER.
Boston one more question: do you expect the cybertruck to be more or less vulnerable?
Boston, is there a reason why the ‘Hutchison effect’ spares IC cars?