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Rocko, nice to see that someone else bothered to find out something about the fourth MDT milestone! Too many folks here just complain that they don't know what it is, or throw out ludicrous hypotheses as to what it could be.
It would be wonderful as an investor to know WHAT exactly the prototype is, but since that could be giving away trade secrets or not-yet-protected IP, I am fully on board with not knowing yet - I prefer they continue to protect the future of my investment by NOT sharing certain info such as this!
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I can answer the question, not sure IREP19 can but Medtronic has someone sitting in Board Meetings to make sure that everything goes smoothly during this partnership and start planning for the next phase upon prototype delivery to Medtronic. Everyone knows ENOS is done so what is the prototype for (redacted of course)? Well we will find out sooner then later.
What catalysts are due to hit between now and the end of September?
I just wrote to Titan last week with that same question. I was impressed by how quickly I received a response. I suggest, instead of asking US, the folks who you continually call Helen (and as was pointed out previously to you, the term you seek is "Karen")you should write a polite email to Kristen, and you may get an actual answer to your question. If you are going to write, I would also suggest that you include a question or two regarding the nature of the MDT milestones. They are willing to offer clarification there as well, if only you would ask them.
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Ignoring those poor loyals that endured and still hold after getting crushed by the 1-30 rs, even MOST newbies have cost basis HIGHER than current PPS. I ask you, what catalysts are due to hit between NOW and end of September ? Can You specifically point out 1 or 2 out for me that will impact PPS in a positive way. Please don't say BO because there is a very very slim chance for that happening in 2021.
But wait! There's MORE! Let's play the Name Game!Here's a few of interest... and it happens to encompass a majority of Titan's recent hires/appointees.
Paul Cataford - LinkedIn profile lists M&A acting as both buyer and seller.
Anthony Giovinazzo - Led the Synapsis M&A
Heather Knight - from Medtronic and Covidien, led 5 acquisitions
David McNally - started a company, got it acquired!
Cary Vance - Covidien, Medtronic; negotiated Hansen's deal with Auris (which later went to JnJ)
Deepak Basra - last worked for an M&A firm; prior Covidien
Kristen Galfetti - a VP at Synapsus when it was acquired by Sunovion
Chien Huang - from Astellas, a pharma company with a crazy acquisition strategy for growth - buy everything! Bought 5 companies while Chien was there, and at least 5 more after.
Chad Zaring - Sold Mazor to Medtronic, stopped in at Titan afterward, presumably to talk about something similar?
Didn't we also have someone leave Titan to go to Medtronic? Oh yeah! Sachin Sankholkar! A little cross-pollination never hurts, huh?
You said "too many things are pointing towards MDT and lining up towards BO." Is ten considered too many? Or at least too many to be merely coincidence! Looks like the vast majority of management and BoD additions this past year have those very experiences that I am hoping get put to use by Titan!
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Thanks for the info. Another person connected to MDT. Don't know if it's a coincidence or not, but too many things are pointing towards MDT and lining up towards BO.
Buyout? Who said anything about a buyout???
Onesy-twosey types of things are coincidences. If you add up the number of people who have come from Medtronic/Covidien and gone from Titan to MDT, plus the number of people we have recently taken on between the BOD and management staff, I think we are WAY beyond any statistically viable definition of coincidence!
To be accurate, I will add snippets from actual definitions:
From the Cambridge dictionary:
an occasion when two or more similar things happen at the same time, especially in a way that is unlikely and surprising.
I like this one because it brings in how likely something is, which has potential to be measured mathematically, and I always like that!
Dictionary.com gives us:
a striking occurrence of two or more events at one time apparently by mere chance.
Random selections of people who are otherwise qualified for the positions Titan has filled are highly unlikely to nearly all come from MDT affiliates and/or have M&A experience.
I think we are way beyond coincidence. Maybe your alternate assertion has some substantial merit!
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Thanks for the info. Another person connected to MDT. Don't know if it's a coincidence or not, but too many things are pointing towards MDT and lining up towards BO.
I thought it was funny that the April article which someone posted earlier today indicates that Vicarious views ISRG, JnJ, and Medtronic as the competition, when Trixie/Asenseless has actual sales (well, not lately... but "placements" under license agreements), and Titan has a fully functional robotic surgical system and a patent portfolio that is a large multiple of the size of Vicarious' portfolio... Does Vicarious not understand that inherent in "competition" is the ability to be competitive? They think they are competitive with those three organizations? Kind of delusional to think they have zero sales and years to get to the market, but they think they are "competing" with JnJ (market cap $440B), MDT (Market Cap $167B), and ISRG (Market Cap $101B). At least if they said Trixie and Titan were their competition, they wouldn't look quite so ignorant of reality.
Maybe their early prototype hardware goes to 11. They're "One Louder!"
There is a difference between Satire and a Satyr! Well, there should be anyway!
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Was this supposed to be a satyrical post?
McNally never lied or misrepresented? Please don’t make me post the long list.
BelizeMe
It becomes immediately obvious where someone stands on Titan Medical and what their objectives are when they repeatedly refer to the MDT licensing agreement as 1/3 of their IP, instead of acknowledging the following:
The IP includes patents which were approved over the past year. All of them. More than the 4 or 5 total from "the competition" which so far were all software (so much for having a robot).
The IP includes patent applications, which get a date stamp when filed and are then officially part of the IP.
By continually referring to "1/3 of their IP", they are implying, probably intentionally, that there is some value assigned to the 55-ish patents which currently constitute 1/3 of Titan's IP. What was really licensed was approximately 1/3 of the IP which was in the form of approved patents at the time of the agreement from over a year ago. This NOW represents well under 10% of Titan's IP.
So moving forward, anyone addressing Titan's IP being licensed should be sure to reference it accurately, e.g. "Medtronic has licensed around 8% of Titan's IP." Much more correct this way.
If they don't need two platforms to market, then how do you explain the success of ISRG while marketing more than one system at a time? They had to start somewhere, but once they got a second system ready, they have always done much better than when they had only one platform. And if it wasn't worth the effort of supporting a second system, they wouldn't still do it. They would have tried it and called it a failed experiment. So a second robotic surgery offering is CLEARLY beneficial to anyone in this market space. Do they NEED two systems? Not to make their initial in-roads in the market. Do they NEED two systems to be competitive with ISRG? Maybe, maybe not... but has history shown that having a second product offering is beneficial? Unquestionably yes.
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I’m not the one making claims…all in my opinion…
In my opinion Medtronic doesn’t want the enos platform. The Medtronic development deal and the development of enos is separate. Medtronic hasn’t purchased a single share of this company. They paid next to nothing for 1/3 of the IP…
Will there be more development deals with Medtronic? Maybe.
I just don’t think they want enos and aren’t gonna pay billions for something they don’t want. They have a platform that will soon be approved. They don’t need 2 platforms to market.
Well, not directly, it turns out, because the patent number wasn't on that document; only the patent application number. I found an SEC doc which correlates the patent application number in that earlier doc to this patent:
https://claimparse.com/patent.php?patent_num=10624532
This patent was approved April 2020. Therefore, my earlier assertion that Medtronic and Titan were talking that early was based on the 371(c) date which is when the application was accepted, I believe. So tying the application acceptance date to MDT was premature - score one for SPORT19; I'm glad I had a chance to look into it and get clarification.
However... when you start to look at dates of people shuffling around between the two organizations - Chad Zaring, for example, middle of 2019... couldn't have been random and not likely instantaneous either. Had to be something in the background going on before that. Sachin Sankholkar crossed over since then. Deepak Basra is ex-Covidien. Heather Knight, BoD, ex-Medtronic. So the date from that document isn't a sound basis for estimating when they started talking, but early 2019 makes sense based on Mr. Zaring alone!
As for the patent, CAMERA POSITIONING SYSTEM, METHOD, AND APPARATUS FOR CAPTURING IMAGES DURING A MEDICAL PROCEDURE... And the Power of Attorney doc giving a clear indication that Medtronic had an interest in our camera system - I think the assertion of the value of Titan's camera systems is pretty well founded. Score one for Mustang and the Longs!
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You could look up that patent and see what it is.......
Might be the first real evidence of what they are licensing
Just sayin
I'm no legal expert but I know how the calendar works!
What I find particularly interesting here is that it rescinds Power of Attorney to Covidien which Mr. Genova had applied for (or possibly was granted) back on October 10, 2018!
To me, it means we just might need to further re-evaluate our thinking with regard to timelines. This document implies we have been tied to MDT/Covidien for well over two and a half years already! The entire Mazor collaboration lasted that long before acquisition, which closed in Dec 2018. So if they are following that timeline and model (but in a less publicized fashion) we could be much closer to a buyout than we realize!
This is actually a rather exciting find! Thanks to Times Yours for finding and sharing, and to Mike0071 for making me think about it!
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Hi, can anyone explain what that form is for and why it mentions Covidien ?
Thanks
Mike
https://register.epo.org/documentView?number=US.201816156651.A&documentId=1-1-US++1615665118P1+
We shall leave it to the future to show the desirability of our well-patented cameras and imaging technology. If they should happen to be adapted to some future Medtronic hardware, or JnJ (I knod of like how often JnJ has been creeping into these conversations lately!) then we will know what I mean by Highly Touted. It seems they just can't talk much about it publicly yet, which I take as an additional indicator.
When was the last time we heard a surgeon speak about Enos? Can't say I ever have. They spoke very highly of the old SPORT platform which, despite being "highly touted" by a number of surgeons who used it in early trials, was considered rudimentary enough that it needed some additional development. And it sounds like it has gotten everything it needed. Do you think there are no surgeons in and out of Chapel Hill, playing with the hardware, offering input for final refinement of control algorithms, etc.? Not without some pretty solid non-disclosure agreement as well, I'm sure. Standard practice for a development company. As soon as they are allowed to speak about their experiences, I expect they will, and I for one don't think I will be disappointed with their Key Opinions.
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What do you mean the cameras are “ highly touted”.
By whom? MacNally?
Can you show us one instance where someone outside the company “ highly touted” the cameras??
BTW when was the last time we heard a SURGEON speak about enos?
Where are the KOL’s?
Nothing
I can list some things too, and add viable commentary as to why they present virtually no threat.
15mm incision to fit what sized end effectors? Maybe the 3mm end effectors like Trixie/Asenseless had, which were widely lamented for being too weak for many tissue types? And who will notice the difference between a 15mm incision and a 25mm incision at the umbilicus? Not too many people.
9 degrees of freedom... Can you list those 9 degrees? I am trying to derive any value from the phrase. Once I get past three basic axes, everything else becomes pretty irrelevant. A fourth dimension might be Time, but deLoreon went out of business decades ago so they aren't partnering. I even looked up the definitions of "degree" to see what may be applicable. Temperature (not that), angular measurement (9 degree range of motion would be tragically poor), academic certifications (the arms did not go to college), or the extent to which something happens (without a unit, the 9 is meaningless except that they have marketing people who want us to believe they are somehow smarter than everyone else by throwing out meaningless buzzwords and phrases).
Hyper flexible stereoscopic camera? Titan has two cameras, both highly touted and well protected by various patents. Which I believe are on the list for MDT because they were that impressed with how much improved the visualization is with Titan's system than with Hugo. And I also believe the two camera approach for initial deployment camera(and back-up imaging) and the high-def 3D camera are patent-protected Titan IP. You like all these meaningless buzz words such as Hyper flexible? You should see my yoga instructor! Much more impressive!
As for the remarkable videos, my first "remark" was that it looked like they covered the arms in a cheap automotive-grade heat shrinkable tubing, based on the way it bulges and sags near any flexible junction.
Maybe they also have a future in robotic surgery, but they have a long way to go to catch up. And they need to stop trying to trick people into liking them by slathering their marketing info with indecipherable hype.
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I can list some things for you if your having trouble finding the specs
Vicarious = 15mm incision
Titan= 25mm incision
Vicarious = 9 deg of freedom
Titan = 7 deg of freedom
Vicarious = hyper flexible stereoscopic camera
Titan= endoscope
....and yes the videos are remarkable for Vicarious and definitely worth watching
Sorry SPORT19, we don't always agree. I'm giving a buyout announcement about a 3 to 5% chance for next week.
Or does that mean I agree with you 95% on this topic?
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What are the odds they announce a buyout on Monday? Voting is over at that point, and all the new hires can get to work on the merger without any risk of anyone getting voted of the island. Would make for a great AGM.
AGM next week, 1 week from today? Would be nice if there was something of substance that they can share. They will share happy news that we already know, like milestones met over the past year; revenues from licensing, etc. They will maybe introduce a couple of their new folks and any mention of their M&A experience will be in passing. I expect nothing big next week. But...
I also expect there are a few shareholders out there who will have jumped in just in case it is an opportunity for them to announce something bigger. And those same folks are likely to sell after AGM, not willing to hold until the next possible "announcement". Significant enough to drop our PPS? Maybe...
My points being:
1. I expect little from AGM
2. It will actually all be good news except for management awards being a bit too generous
3. We already know the good news parts so no positive impact on PPS
4. Post-AGM fallout could drop us back into the $1.50s. $1.60s? Who knows... This is just based on my own gut feel. So many frustrated shareholders out there looking for the Big News but I just don't see it happening yet. So...
I'm gearing up for scooping cheapies in the middle of June! Maybe they won't be cheap... but that's what I'm leaning toward.
SPORT, there IS something else (you are correct). The co-development program incorporates some of our pre-existing patented tech with the newly developed tech; that program is still on-going so the current Hugo absolutely cannot have this joint effort tech in it. There is a lot of testing MDT would have already done in a lab environment which is required for them to even apply for the IDE approval, and it has to be conducted on a stable platform which is representative of proposed production hardware (any changes thereafter are not ideal and must be extensively documented with their submission). Their Design Freeze, whether announced publicly or not, had to have occurred quite some time ago, most likely last year. Highly unlikely that any Titan tech could have made that design.
The development program is likely putting those patents to use in a design which would appear to be for future use, whether as an upgrade to Hugo, a next generation Hugo, or a completely new product offering.
Keep in mind also that the licensing of existing patents was agreed upon when we barely had over 40 patents approved, so the money is for licensed rights to share maybe 12 to 14 patents. That would be roughly (ballpark numbers) $3M to license their share of each patent, which we also maintain the rights to... so worst case, we can claim each patent is worth at least $6M on average, based on MDT's "offer". And if each of our patents is worth $6M and we are sitting on about 165 patents (combined approved and to be approved), then our IP, once fully approved, should have an intrinsic value of right around $1B. Just our IP.
The Milestones are all for the same project, just different phases of development. Ask Titan, they will tell you that much (and not much else). And I am sincere in my suggestion that as many people as possible do reach out to the company with these questions. You may be surprised at the info they can share, and it will reinforce the fact that investors like us are genuinely interested, and sometimes concerned, about what the company is doing.
Start writing those emails!
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Remember MDT paid $10m
for technology ALREADY developed. The rest is for technology under development. It’s a stretch for me to believe they were able to develop the technology, incorporate it into HUGO and test it BEFORE submitting for IDE.
Now it’s certainly possible the technology already developed was used but still.....
I’ll admit the timing of Milestone 3 is curious...
If Medtronic is using 1/3 of Titans technology in its Hugo platform and only paid $41m they got a heck of a deal!
I think there is something else
SRC, nice post overall!
Well, I might not agree with the Venting part, at least the public venting (as I have noted in a few non-persisting posts here) but venting in private or voicing your displeasure to Titan management can be not only therapeutic, but could bring about resolution to the very points one is disgruntled about.
I have said several times that Mr. MccNally HAS TO know more than we do about the redacted parts of the agreement, and possibly other agreements which currently remain confidential. Folks continue to bash Mr. McNally in both public and private forums without knowing if he has already put things in place to make us all inordinately wealthy. I'm not one to bad-mouth a guy who is trying to make me rich!
That being said, things like buyout value may have been discussed verbally and informally, but the actual buyout process starts with an offer (probably after, and in consideration of, the three independent valuations that others have described) which then the BoD and shareholders will both need to approve. This also serves notice to other interested parties if they should want to get in on a bidding game. There most likely isn't anything on paper anywhere yet regarding this initial number unless this ball has already started rolling!
As someone noted recently, Mr. Zaring started with Mazor, and 2.5 years later, that acquisition was completed. If this acquisition is on a similar timeline, Mr. Zaring started at Titan just about 2 years ago, so we could close a deal on a similar schedule by end of this year, if that's the plan. Various articles (including a Forbes article I ran across this weekend) say that 4 to 6 months is typical to actually close an acquisition, so again, things could be percolating in the background at this very moment. (I'm still thinking next year at this point, but I would love it to be sooner).
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Hey livendi, It's been a long ride but I do believe it will all work out but venting is therapeutic and helps while we wait.
That said, consider this, what if MC knows something about the redacted agreement that gives him 100% confidence that MDT isn't going to walk away at the end of the agreement(s) and that they will eventually acquire us? If the public new the pps would be way up.
Read that a couple times and consider it. It requires you to think a differently than everything you have heard to date. Remember, it can't be an offer b/c he would have to disclose that. It's about the agreement itself, more specifically the redactions.
He wasn't going to win this no matter what. Either they could wait until June starts so everyone whines about them being late, or PR it as soon as payment is received, while still in May, so everyone doesn't whine about them being late, but instead whine about the lousy timing with the holiday weekend. I guess the real question is which one gives a worse perception, instead of "Hey, we hit the milestone on time and got paid another $10M!" And they are a Canadian company - was it even a holiday weekend in Canada?
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Was thinking same thing. Who the hell pr's 10m payment and milestone news on a long weekend. Already voted no.
In Facetrain We Trust!
Not being facetious here; I agree with you fully on the that assessment of value. And as for Facetrain, he seemed pleasant, professional and knowledgeable. I just wish he'd drop in and say Hi once in a while. It would be nice to hear if he's doing well. After all, there IS a global pandemic going on in the background!
But it would also be nice to hear more about Titan from someone with his level of experience!
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Amazing, tossing around buyouts numbers based on 1 thing and not the collective whole. It's not just a SP or the IP that's in it, it's also about the entire IP portfolio and how it can be used for so many things besides a SP robot.
If one limits their thinking than the predictions of TMDI's worth will never get close to the actual BO value. The longer I've been in this name the more I believe we can hit near the top end of Facetrains valuation range. If you don't see the entire picture you will never understand how we get there but I believe it's very possible.
Hockey team? The Letterkenny Irish. If you aren't playing, you are watching for entertainment. No team is more entertaining!
And it's only a 4 hour drive to Titan headquarters! (gotta stay on topic!)
More seriously, to ORNurse and ShortRClowns... and anyone else who is interested... Call or email Titan with questions. The management team, including Mr. McNally, are much more open with info than you may realize. They don't PR every detail of their daily operations but they are willing to share more of it than you realize, if you reach out to them and ask. Obviously there are many details they cannot share, but they would be willing to tell you things like what the general nature of the 4th milestone is (no technical details; that's protected) and that it is still on schedule for September completion. Just ask them! You are likely to be surprised at some of the things they can and are willing to share. And with their growing staff, they are much better about returning communications in timely fashion.
They do respect you being polite, and maybe being forthcoming about your shareholder status. As with most professional communications, your openness and honestly promotes theirs.
Good luck! If you do it today, maybe you'll get a reply that will have you smiling for the whole weekend!
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Great post until you mentioned the Islanders. Come on buddy. You know the Winnipeg Jets are the best team.
I think it adds up pretty well. Not meaning to be argumentative, but just sharing a little more info to substantiate my differing opinion on the matter.
The new hires in management seem to be skewed substantially toward folks with M&A experience. Too many to be random; they must be seeking this background. If they weren't planning to be acquired, they would be focused more on other lines of experience.
Meanwhile, they have been hiring development folks to build a team; they have transitioned from a mostly external/contract development model to a mostly in-house development model, and this team is a big part of the value equation for Medtronic. Anyone feel like researching Mazor's Advanced Technology group? Medtronic acquired the whole company, including that development team. Medtronic obviously likes that type of talent pool, and that is what Titan now has to offer to an acquirer. This Titan team knows Enos inside and out now, and they also co-developed some new tech with and for Medtronic - wish I knew what the tech is, but I guess that defeats the purpose of a secret project...
The point is that the new management hires point to an increased likelihood of buyout due to the M&A experience. The engineering hires point to a more likely buyout because Medtronic showed us with the Mazor acquisition that they like bringing on an experienced team with something to show for their efforts. And the re-shuffling of the BOD also brings more M&A background to the table.
My math says this adds up very nicely in favor of a buyout. And I'm kind of a math guy. I just wish I knew when! But I cannot deny that they have been preparing for it.
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Looking less and less likely there will be a buyout by Medtronic.
Too many hires
Another reshuffling of the BOD
Doesn’t add up
Ask that Milestones question to Titan! Try Kristen. You might get a more elaborate response than you expect!
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..Once it's known about the 4th milestone, there may be further value placed on TitanLabs based on their ability to make ideas come to life.....
Good question, will we ever know what the Milestones are?
Milestone 3 completion will be this month. Getting an announcement approved by MDT's legal team could take a while... It's possible the 4rth milestone will be complete before the announcement of the third nilestone is made public!
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McNally confirmed later this month right?
I thought I read somewhere end of may.....
Lessssss goooooooo tit
A friend gave me Mr. McNally's phone number a couple years ago. I have never left a message that he didn't return. He has also been better than 50% at replying to my emails; I have asked questions that I know he cannot answer (MDT gag order) but he typically has been very good at answering what is allowed. When I have gotten no email reply, I already expected no reply due to the nature of my inquiries - but sometimes I take a shot at it anyway!
I have no complaints in this regard.
Who are they? A couple snippets/links...
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190501005113/en/Titan-Medical-Names-Prominent-Medical-Technology-Executive-Charles-Federico-as-Chairman-of-the-Board
https://www.mpo-mag.com/contents/view_breaking-news/2019-06-14/titan-medical-names-prominent-medical-technology-executive-as-board-chairman/
Federico has 46 years of experience in the medical device industry. As a director of MAKO Surgical Corp., he served as chairman, lead director, Compensation Committee chairman, Governance Committee chairman and an Audit Committee member from 2007 to 2013. MAKO, a developer of minimally invasive robotic-enabled techniques for knee surgery, was acquired by Stryker Corp. in 2013 for $1.65 billion.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-schellhorn-57a6998
John Schellhorn is the President and CEO of Monteris Medical.
Prior to joining Monteris, John served as the Chief Commercialization Officer for BARRX Medical, and as President and CEO of Softscope Medical Technologies Inc. Both companies were successfully acquired by strategic partners during his tenure.
Prior to Softscope, John held positions as Vice President of Sales and Marketing for the Peripheral Vascular Division of ev3 Inc., Vice President and General Manager International for ACMI Corporation, and various management positions within Boston Scientific.
Mr. McNally said "I would like to thank Charlie and John for their many contributions to our Board, and for their guidance in securing this important strategic relationship. We wish them continued success."
I'm guessing their work was completed as of the announcement of the agreement on June 4, 2020.
HighGround, did you check out this link? DiceMaker posted it a day or two ago... Could explain a lot of what we are seeing with Titan!
https://www.griproom.com/fun/10-signs-your-company-is-about-to-be-acquired
Most important piece of information in this presentation to me is the last sentence before Thank You:
"Sufficient cash on hand for projected two years of runway, assuming
remaining Medtronic milestones are met in 2021"
So if for any reason MDT hasn't sealed the deal completely by then, we are still funded for operations into April 2023 (presentation date is 4/21/21), with IDE and patient follow-ups all projected to be completed by end of 2022. Therefore, allowing 4 months for the actual FDA application for marketing authorization, we are pretty much funded to the finish line.
On the other hand, the longer MDT waits to close the deal, the more risk they introduce to their own end game, as any other big player could step in with an offer.
No reason to be nervous, for sure!
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Hard to be too nervous when I read this...
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_1b5da01e9503eaa779cd9b3664e79c01/titanmedicalinc/db/1086/9667/pdf/Titan-Medical-Overview-April-21-2021-FINAL.pdf
I too agree the football reference was foolish, but mentioning it here will likely get our posts deleted for being off topic, even though the topic is a video which discusses Titan Medical.
As for them bring in a bod negotiating position, I came up with a theory which may or may not hold any water at all, but could make for an interesting conversation...
ISRG really owns the market at this point for soft tissue general surgery robotic systems. Trixie/Asenseless/whatever you want to call them was approved in Europe over ten years ago and still can't sell squat for systems; only moving a few now by license agreements instead of sales. Hardly competition for ISRG. But when Hugo is approved, there is suddenly some real competition in the market. Therefore, ISRG is no longer a monopoly, and if they were to lob in an offer on Titan, it isn't entirely an antitrust violation because they are no longer a monopoly when Hugo hits the market. I like the idea of a bidding war; I also like the idea of MDT jumping ahead and buying us SOON so the bidding war can't happen!
Point being, they may be in a better negotiating position than we realize.
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I agree the football reference was foolish. I think the overall take is what I agree with him on. It's very hard to bring a soft tissue robot to market. Titan is 3 years away from any revenue if they go it alone. Everybody knows they cant, so they aren't in good negotiating position. I get the whole 160+ patents, but just because it works on paper or in theory doesn't mean it works in practice. They don't have a working robot after 10 years should scare anybody who thinks $5b offers are in coming.
Not sure what they did to spur the investigation, but if they undervalued it, then their 4 patents are worth even more than $275M a piece! My guess is they overvalued it, conning B&D and Bill Gates and a few others to dump tens of millions each into their little shell game. The only way to break into this market with 4 patents is to either build a system based on ISRG's expired patents but with 4 patented modifications, or just sell or license the patents to the highest bidder - then run away with Bill Gates' money! All IMO, of course...
With Titan, we have an award winning patent portfolio with North America's brightest patent guru at the helm, and a system which got great reviews even before all the recent upgrades and additional patented technologies being rolled into it to further differentiate it from anyone else's offerings. Talk about undervalued!
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Vicarious is an unsellable product according to you and it’s valued at, what did u say, $1.2 Billion. Oh and only has 4 patents and btw, based on lawsuit against them the mgmt is either shady or they have completely undervalued it.
Titan is light years ahead of vicarious
SASTER!!! WELCOME BACK to Titanland!!!
Great to hear from you again!
On the new hires (and from an IV post...)
She came from Cynapsus, bought by Sunovion in 2016. Before that, Sanofi, dealing with the Genzyme merger.
He came from Aralez Pharmaceuticals, who sold off two halves of the business to two different companies. Before that was Astellas Pharma, with a history of acquisitions including 2 in 2016, 2 in 2017, 2 in 2018, 2 in 2019, another in 2020...
Is this indicative of Titan's future?
These folks have great resumes for a company that might be planning to get acquired. Otherwise, their experience is less applicable to a steady-state development company looking to break into a burgeoning market in a year or two. They would be the wrong hires for that scenario.
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Why would TMDI fill 2 new leadership positions that have merger and divestiture experience now?
Right before the next milestones and AGM
Do you think Mr. McNally is selling robotics companies out of the back of a van? I don't, and therefore I don'[t think it is his call on what we sell for.
To sell a publicly traded company, the boards of directors for both companies must first agree to proceed to a shareholder vote. Shareholders then get to vote on it for approval.
Mr. McNally wants to present the best deal he can to Titan shareholders, because the better we do, the better he does, and it also is a required part of his fiduciary duty to try to optimize a deal for US.
You are saying that MDT will be able to back him, the BOD (including Mr. Vance who is well tied in with MDT), and shareholders all into this hypothetical corner. And if we feel we are being bullied or for some reason don't like the deal, we vote no. And if somehow they get the votes (vote counting in this country has been suspect as of late) anyway, they will have just earned themselves the reputation of being bullies and cheapskates, which would impact their highly touted acquisition-based growth strategy, effectively shooting themselves in the foot if they try to screw us over.
Others have indicated that acquisition process are based on at least three independent valuations. This would further jeopardize your theory.
I am not personally familiar with MDT's toilet paper budget, but I would hope they get a volume discount on that.
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I hope you're right I just don't see it. MDT will back Mac into a corner. Mac wants that billion $ sale on his resume. Wont get it. More competition (Memic, RBOT, ISRG will get better, JnJ very quiet) better ideas show up everyday. How old are the major patents? Every day they become less valuable. 1/3 are now owned by MDT. $40 miilion? MDT spends that on toilet paper every quarter.
livendi, keep the faith. I know all the "friend of a friend" bs has no real merit anywhere, but I heard something from a pretty solid grapevine that will keep me smiling all weekend about this investment. Not going to betray anyone's confidence so I can't say anything... but I wouldn't be surprised if word spreads elsewhere. They just aren't my beans to spill. I'm smiling as I type this. You are welcomed to smile as well! Wish I could say more, but for now, just keep the faith Bro!
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True bro but 350 to 150 with no bad news. Yikes. I right though. Sometimes patience is everything. God bless all
I fully agree. Nobody should be allowed to invest in anything unless they can see into the future so they know exactly when a run is peaking and when a dip is about to rebound.
Otherwise, most of us just go to work every day, and if we invest in something, we have to sit tight and hope it does what it SHOULD do based on some opinion of the company, the technology, the market potential; and if it has a solid IP portfolio to back it up, all the better. Us non-prescient schmucks will have our day eventually.
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What do I know - Magnus ? Peeps here are unreal / bordering unhinged.
* The amt of shares they would have if they came anywhere close to selling at top of runs and buying the dips. But NOPE - they hold ALL and beatch
Did they not have a vote?
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Not sure the Hansen shareholder base would subscribe to your theory.....
If you are referring to who I think you are referring to, is was an indirect commonality. He was at Xcath, not Colubris (despite both organizations sharing the same street address). I don't know why he left, but you have to admit, the guy has been good at setting up companies for acquiisitions!
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Question of the day!
What do Colubris and Titan no longer have in common?
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I wonder why....?
livendi, it looks like you were asking me, so...
Best case, $6.9B buyout tomorrow. Odds of that are VERY low, but I call it a best case scenario.
Worst case, no buyout ever, we hit the market in late 2022 or early 2023 with a sales force comprised of disgruntled ISRG salespersons who are willing to do anything to sell Enos systems because they want to inflict some torture on their former draconian employer. This is very effective motivation so they are successful and stock climbs into the low $200 range by early 2024. Also I believe a very slim chance it gets to this point, but if it did our patience would be rewarded even more handsomely that a buyout scenario, but I have grown somewhat impatient with this investment so I'd rather take $3.5B buyout tomorrow instead of a $250B market cap in 3 years.
That's MY best and worst case scenarios; reality is probably somewhere in the middle both in terms of schedule and price. Well, I'd still guess $3B-$7B but late this year or early next year, although I'm hoping there is some additional merit in Mr. McNally's statement about paying close attention to the May and September milestones!
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Thanks. What’s your best case and worse case scenarios. U very smart. God bless and good luck 2
Not sure what the concern is here. "Due and Payable In Full" does not preempt an earlier payment. Like tomorrow, if they wanted. But it is Due on the earliest of those 3 things, and one is a fixed date - so if the other 2 things don't happen by that date, they owe Medtronic the described sum on June 23, 2023. If they complete the last milestone under the development agreement before then (isn't that the "September Milestone", as it has been colloquially referred to?) then we would owe them the specified sum at that time (or possibly just ask them to withhold that amount from our final milestone payment). The third condition is a change of control, which means to me that if JnJ or anyone else steps in and buys us out of the blue, MDT gets their money back.
A Due Date means that's the latest it is due, it does not mean it can't be done earlier. Ever borrow a book from the library? Ever been charged a fee for bringing it back too early? Nope. They don't do that because that isn't what "Due" means.
What it does mean in this case is that the handcuffs are off as of June 2023 at the latest, if milestones could possibly be dragged out that far and if there is no change of control by then (for whatever reason).
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A couple interesting notes from MDT license agreement:
Regarding the $1.5 million secured loan from MDTA:
The unpaid principal balance owing under the Note, together with any accrued and unpaid interest and all other unpaid obligations under the Note, shall be due and payable in full on the earliest to occur of: (i) June 4,
2023, (ii) the completion of the last milestone under the Development Agreement, or (iii) a Change of Control
(as defined in the Note), subject to an accelerated due date under certain adverse conditions. Until
repayment of the loan, Medtronic may have one non-voting observer attend meetings of Titan’s Board of
Directors.
HOW DO PEOPLE INTERPRET THAT UNDERLINED PHRASE? TITAN CAN'T PAY OFF THE LOAN EARLY? IF SO THAT HAND CUFFS TITAN THRU JUNE 2023 FROM PROMOTING TITAN EVEN AFTER COMPLETING MDT AGREEMENT/MILESTONES AND RECEIVING FINAL PAYMENTS (WITHOUT ANY FURTHER COMMITMENT FROM MDT NEEDED). THAT'S 2 YEARS OF ADD'L SILENCE IF NO BO.
As these key patents expire, it means other companies are free to use that technology to "compete" against much newer technologies. These expired patents represent technologies that are now 20+ years old. This is why a company with current patents on newer technologies is even MORE valuable! These technologies are the key competitive advantage for moving forward with modern equipment while the rest of the market gets to :expand" by offering their version of the Model T.
Side note: $3.8B would do just fine.
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It’s all in the patents
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Health-Care/Surgical-robots-face-cheaper-rivals-as-key-patents-expire
Why not? It just might be the case. In fact, the reason many of us are here (other than shorters) is because we think a buyout is in our future. And if you (any of you out there) believe that is the case, then maybe Mr. McNally actually deserves a little more respect than he gets around here. Maybe his hands are tied by MDT's legal team but the heavy lifting is already done.
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You shouldn't have said that 66.
One explanation for no royalties could be that the contract also states that by the time those royalties would be due, Medtronic would just be paying it to themselves. If acquisition is among the numerous redactions, there was no need for adding royalties into the contract.
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McNally will either have to get this going sooner then later or explain why he didn’t get royalties for the IP on the Medtronic deal.
The lack of securing royalties, IMO (and based off of what is public knowledge) is a major breach of an executive’s responsibility and will need to be explained to garner a yes vote to remain on the board.