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Some recent information on SLM. After the GE buyout attempt and the removal, with immediate effect, of Markus Rechlin, the news has been rather spare, even in trade magazines.
SLM and Sciaky printed parts
SLM printed spacecraft valve
SLGRF or SLM Solutions. Any word on their activity lately?
Thank you 33'.
re: Lynch ownership
I would never accuse Merrill Lynch of having an ethical bone in all the people in their organization, but I would accuse Elliot Management of having at least one. So, I'm a little more worried than before. My subjective, 3 class, probability distribution of the outcome-
0.1 probability of Lynch and SEB selling all to GE within the year and we're forced to sell.
0.8 probability of Lynch and SEB selling after 2017 and before 2020 and we're forced to sell.
0.1 probability of Lynch and SEB not selling and going long.
In a forced buyout I believe they can call the price and I'm doubting that will be more than their last offer if this happens before 2018.
re: Arcam ownership
Oooo, no Elliot? Is the Lynch ownership the same as what Elliot last owned?
GE democratizing metal 3d printing? I'll believe that when it proves true. Their task at hand is large enough, to come up with a set of rules (the programming part), so that they obtain consistent quality, repeatedly, with one algorithm for the intended part. Or so, that's what I'm guessing they mean by industrialization and democratizing the use of metal 3d machines. They seem to want the machines developed enough that it doesn't matter if a human or a monkey pushes the button.
On that I suppose I'm glad there's a gorilla, and not a monkey, that's developing metal 3d printing. Last I heard, if you give a monkey infinite time at a typewriter Shakespeare's plays will be somewhere in the reams of paper. I suppose the same is true of a monkey in charge of developing technology, that is, from an infinite number of attempts one will be fruitful. The same is true when monkeys try to predict the future. Don't get me wrong, I like and respect monkeys, but they have their place. I just don't want to wait forever for technology improvements, or go through reams of paper to find the plays, or read an infinite number of meaningless posts for good information.
An infinite number of meaningful posts is appreciated, however, and I thank you for that Charlie.
re: nomination committee of Arcam AB
My take on that is that GE is making the decisions with regard to board nominees, that current nomination committee members have no power or realized they have no power, and have resigned. Were they asked for their resignations? I'm guessing so.
Thanks, Charlie, for the Ti references (Son of the Earth).
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains
All the goods are always good
And the bosses boss only machines
And machines lay golden eggs
The workers have little to do
And the banks are full of cash
Oh I'm bound to go
Where there ain't no snow
Where the rain don't fall
The winds don't blow
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains
re: 6 sigma and Immelt
“If you put yourself in my shoes additive manufacturing makes a s---load more sense than Six Sigma did. I was there the first day we did Six Sigma; it made no sense to me.”
Judging by that one sentence, these are the words of one whose heart is close to math. Statistics is not math, it's a way of articulating the workings of the stochastic world. 6 sigma says we have two possible outcomes, a successful or failed part, but by following protocol the chance of getting a failed part is quite small, 3.4 failures per million. He's talking about a deterministic world in which there's only one possible outcome after manufacturing a part, where the part is always a success, never a failure.
Yes, in my opinion, that's a manufacturing revolution that is bigger than 6 sigma. It's the "Big Rock Candy Mountain" of manufacturing.
Correction
A drop from 351.5 to 337 is 4.125%, not 20%, and not around 8%
(351.5 - 337) / 351.5 = 14.5 / 351.5 = 0.04125 = 4.125%
re: ARCAM is down 20% at 331.5. NOT.
350 sek - 20% (350 sek) = 350 sek - 0.2 (350 sek) = 350 sek - 70 sek = 280 sek
280 sek represents a 20% fall. 331.5 is greater than 280 sek. Therefore 331.5 sek does not represent a 20% fall.
Try something more along the lines of 8%.
dirty tricks
Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
Arcam is one of a few that meet most of the criteria for a stock worth an investment. I keep my eyes on a company's: management, a focus on research, and future demand. PYRNF falls short on management and research. That's why I taken Pascal's wager on PYRNF (what if I'm wrong?), and many multiples more in AMAVF.
PYRNF kinda oversells plasma as if it's a rare and difficult state of matter to produce, and that they're the wizards. There are other plasma waste processing companies. Turn on a florescent light, and there before you is the 4th state of matter. Their research budget is a pittance. Their researcher has a master's degree. Last I looked they weren't doing any cooperative research with anyone else. Compare that to Arcam where you see research being done at national labs, universities, and company campuses. Faculty numbers in those research areas increased because of the potential they've seen in metal 3d technology.
Future demand is certainly there for what PYRNF offers. Maybe they'll make their profits on metal powders soon. That's why I have anything in them. Will company culture change though?
Maybe things have changed there lately, that is, beyond offering metal powders soon. I hope so.
re: pay sites
Don't know if you're referring to Khan, Wolfram, or Martindale, but you don't have to pay for any of those, you just won't get as many options with Wolfram Alpha.
The information I'm referring to that can be obtained from all of those sites has had a positive definite influence on my investment, especially with Arcam. In that way, it's related.
"“What’s important when you are in that hedge fund mode,” he noted at the time, “is to not do anything remotely truthful because the truth is so against your view, that it’s important to create a new truth, to develop a fiction.”
Then he outlined three ways to do that:
Spread false rumors
Drive futures
Give information to reporters who would then spread the “news” giving it an air of legitimacy."
Sounds like what's happened on this board on some occasions.
How to Handle a Short Attack on a Stock You Own
Re: Martindale's reference
It takes only one like Charlie to give a website veracity. I'll second his suggestion by saying that I've been using Martindale's for some time.
Wolfram Alpha is another website I use but I have a subscription. There's no end to the mathematics and computer modeling you can do, but there's much more. You can find things like climate data for a weather station on a specified day, properties of elements, and there's all the physics you need. Worringly, one can find solutions to many math, stoichiometry, and physics problems. I use Martindale's along with Wolfram Alpha.
So you're a parent worried about your children's education? Send them to Khan Academy. They give clear, accurate explanations.
re: shorters
I realize that valuation for Arcam is in the nosebleed zone, but all else points to a hold. 1000 times 700,000 is seven hundred million, 1000 times a million is a billion. These rough revenue projections swamp the trailing 12 month revenue last reported of about 65 million.
Am I alone in rolling in the floor laughing?
Like, like, like.
Yes, the posts on bitcoin and Arcam recently have been very helpful.
Thank you Charlie, and thanks to others for the questions.
John's tax records should help!
re: stock value after buyout withdrawal
Ha ha! A nice long term perspective that helps one see past greed induced trading. Going through the reasons to hold: market potential, management, effective research and development, profit margin, labor and personnel relations, a natural monopoly, and they have a long range profit outlook.
re: ... can they really keep the share price down?
Yes, by share dilution, but by how much and for how long I don't know.
From the IHub page-
*Over 66 % (2/3) of the total number of votes in the company - holder can ensure that certain special resolutions are passed e.g. directed share issues;
Concept Laser, Arcam, materials.
Concept Laser and Arcam have processes that go beyond sintering and fully melt metal powders so the parts are as close to fully dense and near net shape as possible. I do not know if Concept Laser and SLM builds are at least as fully dense as parts produced in cast-machine methods but Arcam's is. Sintered parts will not do, they cannot produce fully dense parts nor get as close as Concept Laser, Arcam, and SLM.
Concept Laser M3 Linear
I do not know how much work GE has ahead to obtain FAA approval with Concept Laser produced parts. It may be very little as SLM also uses a laser melt, not sinter, process. GE has or is near FAA approval for Arcam produced parts for engines they are promising. The level of GE's committment is shown in research that lead to prototypes like this-
3d Printed Mini-Jet Engine
and products for the market like this-
GE builds 3D printing factory in Prague, to 3D print engine parts for next-gen Cessna Denali
That looks like it has a completion date of 2022, but that really isn't so far away.
Arcam is the only company that uses an electron beam to melt metal powders to produce metal parts that have met FAA approval, and Arcam has the only process that generates TiAl parts with the microstructure optimized for low pressure turbine blades. No laser process can do what Arcam's process can do. This means that Arcam has a "natural monopoly" on this process. GE wants this monopoly to vertically integrate a company that produces jet engines. Moreover, GE has agreements and is advertising their 3d jet engine products to markets from the airline industry to the consumer market.
So, GE has little choice. The entire jet engine industry has little choice but to use 3d printed parts to reduce CO2 emissions, increase fuel economy, and reduce noise. 3d will also do something that does not occur often in the history of industry, improve productivity.
300 Sek appears to be the highest bid GE will offer, but the long range material science, industry, and market view appear to show what a bargain this would be if the buyout is completed.
GE's Prague 3D printing factory shows they're committed despite the acquisition outcomes. Thank you, nice article.
For your reading "pleasure." I'm not sure any information on mini-tender offers applies to us, but it's worth reading to get a little perspective.
Mini-tender offers
It looks like the cross-border tender offer rules do apply, however, I doubt any information contained within will change anyone's mind. Again, it may be worthwhile to read for some legal perspective.
Cross-border tender offers
Interim Report January-September 2016 and conference call
On October 21 at 08.30 a.m. (CEST) Arcam AB will publish the report for the period January 1 – September 30, 2016.
Following this report Arcam will arrange a conference call for media and analysts. CEO Magnus René and CFO Johan Brandt will present and comment on the report. After the presentation there will be time for questions.
Conference call
October 21, 2016 at 12:00 p.m. (CEST). Note the time!
Click on "Interim report January-September 2016" in the link below to see the full document.
Nordic Nasdaq Arcam
re: tardy GE
In this day of electric paper and instant sums I say the odds are in favor GE falling short of their goal, that meetings were called, and somebody crapped a jeweled nematoda.
All has been interesting before we know the outcome. I hope it remains interesting and profitable for all.
re: RE:How many shares could GE have purchased for 286 SEK?
Will do my best to remind and assist in keeping records in future acquisitions.
LOL
Arcam has been trading at the offer price in Sweden, not so high here, but the volume here has been very low at clearly less than the average volume since the offer. On top of that, what percentage of share owners in the states understand or realize what it means for Elliot to block the 90%.
No, it doesn't look like Mr. Market is throwing in the towel, it looks like one can make no conclusion. We're just going to have to wait.
Oops, big oops. Goram Malm is not moving anywhere. That's an old press release but I still believe it's a good idea to keep up with the board.
Holding company and other matters
BREAKING DOWN 'Holding Company'
One benefit of forming a holding company is that the holding company itself is protected from the losses. If one of their companies goes bankrupt, the holding company experiences a capital loss and a decline in net worth, but the bankrupt company’s debtors and creditors can’t pursue the holding company for remuneration. Thus, a major corporation might structure itself as a holding company with one subsidiary to own its brand name and trademarks, another to own its real estate, another to own its equipment and others to operate each franchise. This way, each subsidiary as well as the holding company itself has limited financial and legal liability. Structuring a company this way can also limit tax liability by strategically basing certain parts of the business in jurisdictions with lower tax rates.
Holding companies also allow individuals to protect their personal assets. Rather than owning assets personally and therefore being liable for their debts, potential lawsuits and other risks, holding companies can own the assets so that only the holding company’s assets and not the individual’s assets are at risk.
A holding company’s operations consist of overseeing the companies it owns. It can hire and fire managers if necessary, but those companies’ managers are responsible for their own operations; the holding company is not. Although the holding company does not manage the day-to-day operations of the companies it controls, the owners should still understand how these their subsidiaries operate to evaluate the businesses’ performance and prospects on an ongoing basis.
Holding Company
Looking at movement within the Arcam board but I only looked at ones with GE connections. Looks like Goran Malm is moving on. Gotta wonder whether Anna Malm Bernsten isn't Goran Malm's daughter-
Goran Malm, GE
I can only conclude that GE is protecting itself with a holding company but in the bigger picture, I don't know what that means, nor do I know what Goran's move means.
re: Elliot agitates and broker notes
Couldn't find much on Investopedia so I went to Wikipedia-
Elliott Management Corporation
So my first assumption is that they'll act in the interest of shareholders at large, based on that article.
Next, it's GE Sweden Holdings AB that's buying Arcam. Legally, I don't know if that changes anything but I post that for our use.
GE Aviation announces a recommended public cash offer to the shareholders of Arcam
Lastly, in these last hours of decision making it appears these are the possibilities with the current update that Elliot has greater than 10% ownership:
(i) You voluntarily tender your shares. GE accepts your offer and does not withdraw the offer. You get 285 Sek unless they make a greater offer later, then they owe you the difference.
(ii) You voluntarily tender your shares. GE accepts your offer but later withdraws the offer. Typically this occurs 2 to 7 days after the deadline. You end up with the shares that you had.
(iii) You do not tender your shares voluntarily. GE cannot force you to sell them as Elliot owns greater than 10% so you cannot be forced to sell.
(iv) GE manages to buy 66% and you haven't tendered your shares. Here's the headache for me, they can issue more shares if I have my percentages correct, and the strategies multiply.
Question. Do shares tendered in acceptance of the GE-Arcam offer appear in publicly visible trades immediately, or, does GE have that bit of time specified by Swedish law to announce tendered share acquisition, or is the mechanism of the exchange an animal of a kind that can be cloaked (I seriously doubt this last)?
Talked to my broker today and he suggested deciding on the offer by market close this Tuesday, October 11. That doesn't agree with Arcam's stated deadline of October 14 but that could be broker specific. So I believe it's a good idea now to discuss this with your broker and stay current with proportions of ownership news.
re: One interesting question to discuss
Another question- Elliott buys into any stock with large profits in mind, so why buy when the price was at or above the offer price?
287 sek = $33.41 as of today.
Closing price today on the US market, $33.50.
For the last month, 1 sek = anything from about $8.44 to $8.59.
Using $8.44 as a base that means the exchange rate has varied in the last month by about 2%.
The price of Arcam stock has varied about 5%, more than two times as much as the exchange rate has varied.
re: That link is timing out for me.
Try Arcam Nasdaq Nordic exchange, scroll down to company news, then click on Statement by the Board ... ."
re: The offer expires in 20 minutes.
Statement by the Board of Directors of Arcam in relation to the public offer by GE
re: The Arcam to 600 issue
LOL.
Nobody is predicting anything definite about the price outcome of Arcam stock, unless, it stays on the exchange. If GE fails to buy 90% I'm confident in 600 sek in a few years.
BTW, it think it presumptuous to call anyone out here a friend or a phriend, however you spell it.
re: "it will not go up to 600. LOL" LOL, who knows? If the visionary inventive engineers of Arcam aren't swallowed by the GE conglomerate, I've no doubt they will.
This is great; I like laughing.
experiation- Must be another word of which I'm ignorant.
Your right Charlie. If "your" was preceded by "to" or if "you're" was used as a contraction of "you are" I might understand.
Take the need for extensive training and knowledge in mechanics and ebm, add the rhequirement for extensive experience in EBM and then filter in the need for proficiency in English AND Swedish. The rhesus whaxes rhapsodic at the thypewhryter.
I respet his insight After reading all this I believe I need some wishkey.