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latest gfs run show probable 2nd shot of cold air in the eastern us right after thanksgiving. NG to 3.65/3.75? I could be in trouble.
Wrinkles, looks like you might get your wish for NG price 3.65 to 3.75. Latest weather run show another shot of cold air right after thanksgiving. Which means I could be in the weeds. Got my stops set.
Don’t think NG gonna hit 3.65. weather forecast appears to turn mild. I’m looking (hoping) it goes to 3.35 or lower. I’m all in at 11.35. If there’s a nasty weather surprise I could be really underwater. I’ve been here before.
loading the rest of the boat at pm open. Dgaz gonna go up big by Friday close.
DGAZ is where it’s at today. Added another 2100 aftermarket last nite when I saw the weather forecast. Could go 12.50 to 13.50 by Friday close.
I’ll load remainder of the boat as soon as pm opens.
If Dems take the House it would be bad news for the dollar and good news for gold. It might be the catalyst to start the gold rally.
Here’s a link to current weather analysis by mit’s judah cohen
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Wrinkles, nice call on ng. I loaded more dgaz late in session. I hope it goes to $4 but I don’t think weather forecast will hold up
looking to enter uwt. Scalped jdst on the rebound for a few hundred
DGAZ loss dropped below 20%. Circuit breakers kicked in. I sure wanted to pick up some 10.50s. Wait for tomorrow. Bulls pushing it. Hoping weather forecast drops again this afternoon. TD doesn't have any shares of UGAZ to borrow
It might be time to put a toe in the oil. There are compelling reasons for wti to rise - both TA and fundamental. I think the thing that gets prices going again will be a post election announcement by opec+1 to the effect that they will be slightly trimming production to keep supply “balanced”. Meaning, they aren’t going to foolishly wreck their income stream. They wanna keep prices in the $75-80 Goldilocks zone.
C’mon NG. Spike over $3.50 so I can load 2nd dgaz buy.
Good rules. All of them. I should post them over my computer screen and make it the background on my iPad. Especially HONOR THY STOP LOSS!!
If you wanna know what is happening with NG here are links to a couple of longer pieces I recently posted to the DGAZ board:
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Oops! Meant to say dgaz dropping like a stone... I got too excited
NG dropping like a stone!! Next buy dgaz below 13.40
Researcher, thanks for keeping the flame alive through the warm months!
Bought at 14.06
Closed out jdst fodr 3% gain. I had to chase dgaz to 14.06. I hate chasing stocks. Anyway, got my starter
I looked ugaz right in the eye at 77.60 this morning and said “no, I’ll wait for it to hit 77.00”. It took off and all I’m left with is the knowledge that my understanding of its movement was right
Now dgaz is sinking below 14 and I’m gonna buy
Oil getting trashed again today. I may pick up a starter in WTI when I see Brent with a 69 handle. Brent 67 might be the safe choice. Thoughts?
when gold does blast off its gonna be a thing of beauty - but not today.
bulls are trying to push gold, but no matter how much they buff it that t*rd won't shine. I'm short via jdst with a lot of shares
Keep an eye on NG. Price is going down this morn. Bulls are waiting for just a hint of cold forecast. I like going short but If ugaz goes below 77 I’m gettin in
tqqq up big this morn. I might hang on to it to see if the whole market takes off after non farm payroll. No STUPID trades today!
I don’t stop by nearly as much as I’d like bc my business gets in the way of my trading ;)
Got burnt trying to short gold. Stupid stupid stupid. Took out all my profits on dgaz.
Dgaz again. NG price spike almost every day. Ride it back down. I will be more cautious in my entry - waiting until below 14 to enter next time. Bulls looking for any excuse to push NG.
Another nice trade opportunity in dgaz today. Got as low as 13.70 premarket. Session high was near 15.00.
There is a lot of volatility in NG currently due to the tug of war between the two camps:
1. Storage is drastically below normal and it could be a cold winter with freeze offs etc
2. There is record production and this winter is looking fairly mild.
With each change in the weather forecast there is an amplified gyration in the market. I am now buying D below 14.00 as the bulls are really trying to push NG higher - selling the pops of course.
Eventually there will be some real cold weather in the forecast. The bulls are gonna go crazy. I will be waiting, waiting, waiting to go short.
I forgot to add, DGAZ has been so good lately, lows below 14.40 and highs above 15.00 - almost every day. It'll end sometime...
I got the bounce in oil, but don't look for it to stick. There's alot of bad news out there. WTI maybe going below 65 but WTHDIK!
I'm playng metals short for the time being. I shorted miners twice this morning.
I think I'm done for the day.
Oh, and thanks for bringing LABU/LABD to my attention. I bought LABU premarket and made a nice gain on the pop at the open. I missed the subsequent dip opprotunity though. Too much going on this morning.
Wow dgaz has been a great day/swing trade for the past couple of weeks. Buying the dips at 13.75 - 14.40 and then selling above 15.00. I don't know how long this pattern will last but eventually I may get get burned. It all depends on the weather. I'm buying small positions and repeating every couple of days.
Stay out of metals for now. US dollar is gonna go wild until the fed says they’re backing off the rate hikes. There are too few dollars chasing too many commodities, equities, and debt. Safe haven is providing some support for gold, but dxy is relentless. Parity (dxy=100) by year end?
When fed does back off it’s gonna be fire in the hole- especially for miners
I’ve been in and out over the past few trading days. The latest forecast runs from GFS and ECMWF scared me off today. It could get ugly for anyone holding DGAZ. That said, I will probably buy starter position if Dec hits 3.40-3.41 tomorrow.
Here is the text of my post about the price difference between DGAZ and UGAZ over time:
A case study that supports the idea of shorting NG via DGAZ.
05/20/2015 the front month contract - NGN15 (July15) - open at 3.005
DGAZ opened at 25.00 100% in July contract
UGAZ opened at 3625.00 100% in July contract
10/01/2018 the front month contract – NGX18 (Nov 18) – open at 3.007
DGAZ opened at 17.69 100% in the NOV contract
UGAZ opened at 74.43 100% in the NOV contract
Natural gas was essentially priced the same at opening on those two dates, however during the 3 1/2 years between those two dates:
DGAZ decreased in value 29.2%
UGAZ decreased in value 97.9%
Contango is your friend when you trade DGAZ
During the time period between the two dates DGAZ had one reverse split at 5:1 (MARCH 16, 2017).
UGAZ had three reverse splits:
10:1 Dec 20, 2017
25:1 March 14, 2016
5:1 Sept 10, 2015
I rechecked the value of the underlying contracts, NGN15 and NGX18, on which the value of UGAZ and DGAZ was based on those dates. They are correct. I rechecked the value of UGAZ and DGAZ at the open on the respective dates. They are correct.
Thanks for questioning my findings. I was surprised as well when I first investigated my supposition. I will be happy to send you links to the web pages showing the underlying data. I would do it now but its bed time.
buying D on ng spikes is working well. Several 3 to 7% trades so far.
I agree shorting ugaz is the way to go however I use Ameritrade b/c I really like their mobile interface and they rarely have shares available to short when I am looking
To your second point, i’m pretty sure I accounted for all splits. I was pretty thorough. I will check again and let you know. I’ve been wrong before - just ask my wife.
A week ago I was all cash and trying to choose between jnug, uvxy, dwt and dgaz. I typically concentrate on swing trading one or two etfs at a time (less distraction while running my business). I chose dgaz. The other three blasted off. That’s the way it goes. I will take my 4% gain and not look back. I’ll keep trying to make intelligent buys. My account keeps chugging up. Not flashy but solid
It’s because d is now 80% in the dec contract and that contract didn’t react nearly as severely as the nov contract. Contango has blown out from 1.5 cents to over 7 cents in the last couple days
I will be buying the spikes in NG price and selling the dips for the next 6-8 trading days.