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Probably naked shorts covering today. Too bad to let them get away partially at this price. If CSGJ files today or on Monday, I will trap them.
WKBT always looks like fraudulent company to me. They products and gross margin do not make sense to me. I don't trust their numbers.
"Northern, do you still prefer CSGJ to CRJI fundamentals?...LJ"
No, until they file that damm 10K. I have to remind them that they will lose 1.5 million shares if they don't file 10K before Monday next week.
I hope that longs are right and GFRE did not cook their books. But I have my doubts. Let's see what we will get by May 16.
They said that they pulled GFRE SAT document and even supplied to GFRE IR.
Yes, may be that we can live with that. But we still have other points that cannot explained.
The risk is just too high at this stage. It is far better to buy after the smoke is clear, even at higher price after Q1 is released.
I have a feeling that we may not see Q1 report by May 16. feel better to stay on the sideline for now.
Sold all my GFRE shares today:
(1) HAP dumped almost their shares at such low valuation.
(2) SAT pulled out by Geo was consistent with the hit piece data
(3) Postpone in Q1 filing
(4) Lack of share buy back so far
(5) Hard to explain very low inventory level and very high inventory turn over ratio
I cannot take this ultra high risk for a potential total loss. I will buy back my position after Q1 filing, just to make sure that 10Q will be filed by May 16.
China stopped approving new cement production lines in September 2009 for provinces having cement production capacity of 900 kg or higher per person per year. Majority provinces are over that limit. The last new production lines enter service the 2nd half of this year since it takes about 1.5 years to build a new prodcution line. There will be no more new capacity increase from the end of this year. But Chinese cement demand is still increasing, about 7% increase per year. So supply and demand balance thys year and shortage next year and going forward. This is why that you see gross margin improvement for cement producers such as CRJI. CRJI now enjoys over 30% gross margin. It used to be about 15% gross margin. CCement industry in China is going to be very profitable industry.
Cement price in China is still very low comparing the cement price in other countries. The ratio of stell price over cement price in China is 10 to 1. The world average ratio of steel over cement price is about 4 to 1. There is big room for Chinese cement price to increase.
Becasue of low cement price in China, China export cement instead of import.
Hi Minding, I plan to hold this position long term (>2 years)since I like the Chinese cement sector. I hope that they file their 10K before May 15. This sector looks very good. I think that we will see cement shortage in China next year.
I also like the energy sector, bought LLEN in the last 2-3 weeks and bought canadian uranium stock (UUU.To) this morning.
Northern
I have picked up 120K shares at 0.151-0.19 betting that they will file 10K on or before May 15. I got 6K shares at 0.155 last Friday. We will see.
Here they come. I wonder why I did not see them. They are chasing the wrong one.
I called their IR. IR did not know anything or did not want to tell me. I called the company and nobody picked up the phone.
Still think that they will file 10K.
I did not check their credit report before I bought some shares of CRJI. I just liked the Chinese cement sector because I thought that the sector was turing around. I think that the sector has a golden opportubnity in the next 10 years due to the continue growth in demand and no more decent supply increase from the 2nd half of this year. I would predict that Chinese cement price is going to increase. For over 30% gross margin and very strong cash flow from operation, it should be no problem for CRJI to service their debt.
If you take out $1.62 m bad debt reserve, which only affect earning but no cash flow for this Q, they would make close to $2.9 m in the Q. This is close to my low end of earning estimate of $3 million USD even they only ran 60% production capacity. The next 3 Qs should be very strong.
Coal is the best sector for Chinese stocks. I own LLEN, CHGY and SGZH.
Do these guys know what they are talking about? LLEN invests cash from operation to generate over 40% return. That is the best business model you can get. They will generate tons of free cash flow when no more acquisition opportunities are available in the future. I hope that day is still 5 years' away. By then LLEN may be $4 billion market.
"Red flag
However, one flaw that caught my attention is the negative free cash flow (FCF) of $35.8 million. This is not bad in itself. A few weeks back, Joseph Kruse mentioned that a negative free cash flow for this company does not mean much since it is a "growth company," and that L&L is trying to grow organically by reinvesting its earnings. However, the big question is whether the company will be able to sustain the growth it has showed in the past couple of years. Foolish investors must watch this company's growth closely"
I still think that they will file within 30 days, that is their cure time before going to pink sheet. Certainly not happy, but will wait.
The gross margin is impressive, about 33.3%. If they get their production volume up and I think that they will in the next 3 Qs, it should should lead to much higher earning number. I am looking for $5 - 6 million net earning.
So CRJI did $1.23 million net earning. It looks to me that Chinese new year holiday and year end maintance cut their production time by 40%. Even so they still generates $1.23 millin net earning, pretty impressive. Next Q should be much better
They produced 148K tons of cement and 149K tons of clinker in the Q. The normal run rate is 250K for each per Q.
So CRJI did $1.23 million net earning. It looks to me that Chinese new year holiday and year end maintance cut their production time by 40%. Even so they still generates $1.23 millin net earning, pretty impressive. Next Q should be much better
They produced 148K tons of cement and 149K tons of clinker in the Q.
Added 5K at 6.84. 1200 shares at 6.79 and bid 3.8K at 6.79.
Coal Mine Visit Video:
http://www.redchip.com/visibility/investor.asp?symbol=LLEN
I hope for a pull back becasue I want to buy more.
Mine visit updated by a Yahoo poster:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_L/threadview?m=tm&bn=106842&tid=22464&mid=22464&tof=2&frt=2
Not even a slightly pull back and profit taking before market close this is Friday. It is set to rise more next week.
Short covering and buying due to very low valuation and good growth prospect creat a buying storm. I want to buy more today, every time I set a bid price, MM raises the price. Hard to accumulate. It looks to go higher.
I started buying at 4.98 and got 16K shares 4.98-5.05. Bought 5K yesterday at 5.60. Bought 10K this morning at 5.65-5.77. Hope to add 30K share more, but it ran away. Will buy more at pull back.
Giving 2-3 years with ramp up of coal production from 750K to 2 million tons. You may see $40 share price. Seriously.
CRJI vs CSGJ
I own both since I like the cement sector in China. It is interesting to see continue different performance in these two stocks, CRJI going up while CSGJ going down. CRJI is about report fiscal Q2 on April 15, which should be strong. CSGJ is supposed to report 10K on April 15. Will be interested to what we get.
Hi Minding, Sorry for your loss. Hopefully, you will recover your loss from your other investment.
Best regards.
Northern
If the cement price remains at the current level and no production issue as I expect, I would expect $16 million net earning this year. Not kidding.
CRJI looks great, not only the share price, but the business fundamentals as well. Their cement price started to increase from the end of March. Fiscal Q2 will be out soon. Q2 production was affected by Chinese new year, possibly on 2 months' production. I expect $3 - $4 million net earning. I expect Q3 to be much better, possibly in the range of $5 - $6 million net earning. I expect $16 million net earning this year.
They lose confidence in Chinese stocks in general and CSGJ specific.
No news so far. The cement sector in China is doing great. The price is starting to go up, about 50-70% higher than the same period last year depending on the location. CRJI is performing well. But CSGJ is doing poorly. Part of reason is no news from the company and they in black out period. 10K was delayed to April 15, same as last year. They always postpone their 10Qs and 10Ks. Have to wait for 10K to be out on April 15. That should make difference for the share price.
This US guy, Jan Pannemann, owns 8.87 million shares or 43.3% total shares. His major ownship gives me the comfort that ENHD story will not happen here.
At least they released 10K earning report without problem. A US guy owns over 8 million shares of CIHD, it is unlkely that the story of ENHD will be repeated here.
Cash increased to $9.4 million and book value to $35 million USD as well PE=2. Giving some time, the stock should rise.
10K out and CIHD made $6.5 million net earning:
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/110331/cihd.ob10-k.html
CSGJ has a 100 million tons of new production plant in Shandong that was in operation in December last year and it is now ramping up the production. The other 0.5 million ton of plant in Shandong is not in danger of shutting down becasue it uses newer technology.
Both CRJI and CSGJ as well as the cement sector are going to attract the attention of investors/traders in the next 2 years beacsue of re-build of Japan. A PE multiple of 4 to 5 means 500% appreciation potential for both stocks.
CSGJ has 1.5 million tons of cement production plants in Shandong province that are only 6 - 25 km away from the sea port. You can check the location of Shandong province from one of your maps and see how close is Shandong to Japan.