Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I shorted stocks twice in the past. Each time, the stock rose rapidly after I shorted. Day and night I had bad dreams that the stock might continue to rise to $1 million or even $1 billion a share, and then I would be bankrupt. Eventually the stock felt below my short price, and I covered immediately with little profit.
You are so brave! I thought to short DRCT but did not dare. The share price may fall to $2-4, which was the share price before Nov 9 when they issued false guidance of $64 million revenue for the 4th quarter.
DRCT is a fraud: Projected the 4th quarter revenue 2023 about $64 million on No 9, 2023, and recorded $41 million actual revenue for the 4th quarter revenue 2023 today. It this were not fraud, what fraud would be?
Two risks for AATC: 1) Depend on the third party to market the product: 2) many competitors in intelligent transportation information analysis business. If they manufacture and sell the product by themself, they could act faster and thus more likely be more competitive.
I bought some your DRX.TO at the market open today. The backlog is over $500 million, the margin is rising, the dull analysts raise the estimate, my earning estimate for the first quarter is 0.3-0.4. per share...
I passed IDN for the same reason as yours this morning, now it is over $3.
I bought 400 SOWG shares at 8.01 per share this morning, high risk and possibly high reward.
I want to thank Wade on SMCI, because many people like Wade misunderstood, sold and knocked down SMCI, I had the opportunity buying SMCI at 250 per share last December and buying back partially sold SMCI shares at 860 per share last Wednesday.
Last December SMCI raised $500+ million at $262 per share to buy expensive chips and build new factory to meet high demand, its share price felt back from over $300 to below $250, and then rose over $1200 in the next 3 months. Two days ago, SMCI raised $1.7+ billion at 870 per share to buy expensive chips and possibly build more factories to meet even higher demand, its share price felt back from over $1000 to below $860, how much will its share price rise to in the next 3 months, $1400, $2000, $4000?
I believe it will depend on the financial result this quarter to be announced next month. I believe that its financial result this quarter will be very good, better than expected. Otherwise, how could they raise $1.7+ billion?
What SMCI's fall 30%+ within days really mean? It happened several times in the past year. It means letting some people get off the train and let others board on the train. It is normal. It will continue to march forward and touch $2000 this year because of its booming hardware + software business.
S&P 500 all time high again and the march will continue though the road will be avoidably bumpy.
I just bought back all SMCI shares at $860 per share I sold a week ago. The business is booming which is the reason of the capital raised.
Bought some LWAY early in the morning: Beat the estimate in both revenue and earning with positive outlook, and valuation is low.
Wade likes junk stocks at low price ex gern and aaoi and dislikes great stocks at fair price. He is very smart trader who is capable to time the market well and make good money on junk stocks.
I keep all immr shares. It is so undervalued with tons of cash, good earning and new meta deal. The income last quarter includes tax benefit.
Wade, you use analysts' number like the God. Let me tell why their number may be garbage:
In January 2000, I paid a few hundreds to attend an investment conference and listen to dozens of world class top fund managers/analysts (mainly in tech and biotech). Afterwards I invested most of my savings in their managed funds (at that time, I did not know how to buy stocks). By March 1, 2003, most of these funds lost 80-90%, compared to Nasdaq down about 76%. These analysts not only did not know they were in the bubble in Jan 2000 but also could not pick the winner. On the other hand It is more likely than not these analysts sing bubble song to appear knowledgeable far before bubble come.
Thanks for your great post on SMCI and investing strategies, SSKILLZ1, I totally agree. After sold 23%, SMCI still is the largest holding of my portfolio, far above my normal 10% maximum limit. Diversification or let the winner run? I will choose to let the winner run this time. Both losing money and missing opportunities would make me unhappy. So I focus on larger probability. I believe AI has been hot for one year only and has at least another 3-5 years to run (internet became hot for 6 years before 2000). SMCI is traded with my estimated gpe about 0.5 and still very undervalued (Wade’s estimate is non sense). Both SMCI and NVDA have higher than 50% probability to run and outperform the market for another 3-5 years.
Thanks for great understanding on SMCI vs CSCO, SSKILLZ1, I agree with you mostly. I actually sold 23% of my SMCI holding in the past 2 trading days, my average price is now below zero,, and I keep asking myself: should I sell more? On one hand, yes, as you explained. On the other hand, AI's impact on us including self driving, medicine finding, robotics, etc is what we could feel and is just beginning. The rising demand for computing may last at least another 3-5 years. It is hard to catch up the leaders like NVDA and SMCI, because they are managed by hard work people with humble beginning. SMCI has been so well managed that it has never had a money losing year since inception. It seems almost for sure they will increase their revenue and earning significantly inn the next 3-5 years. So overall their share price may continue to rise and outperform the market, even if avoidably the road is bumpy. I have experience selling expensive stocks well too early and missing the huge ride. I do not want to make the same mistake this time. Should I keep the remaining shares at least for another 2-3 years?
In summary if 2000 internet bubble come back, SMCI would increase to $8000-$10000. Then it would explode to about $2000.
CSCO was $77.31 on March 1, 2000. Three years later on March 1, 2003, is was $12.98, a decline of 83%. If one day SMCI become a bubble at $8420, a 83% decline would take it to $1431. On April 1, 1990, CSCO was $0.08. from $0.08 to $77.31, it was an increase of 96,637%. On April 1, 2007, SMCI was $10.41, 96,637% increase would take it to $10060.
Why SMCI may rise over $2000?
In March 2000, CSCO grew at 59% a year with PE of 138. Today SMCI grows at 90% with PE only 30. Based on CSCO's bubble valuation in March 2000, SMCI's share price should be forward earning per share $40 * 138 *90%/59%= $8420, this is the bubble. Anything below $2000 may be undervalued for SMCI!
NVDA touched 974 this morning, only 26 away from 1000, amazing!
I will hold IMMR at least for another 3 months because the 1th quarter should be very good considering the meta settlement.
Will NVDA touch 1000 today?
IMMR: $17.5 from Meta is not included in the last year's income. The volatility of other income is due to its stock portfolio and mutual funds.
I would short SOXS if brave enough!
NVDA has just broken through 900 and is on the way over1000
NYCB: What is your covered call expiration date? I was very lucky being able to sell all my shares at $3.58 and $4 today. Could not believe I got some small profit on this junk.
Congratulation, KIK!
Thanks bbotcs, interesting on TM/TSLA, why is TM foresting quite low revenue about $9500 million yen for the quarter ending March 31, 2024, compared with $12000 million yen in the quarter ending Dec 31, 2023?
researcher59: TSLA and all other EVs felt sharply today, because EV competition is tense. The judgement on Elon's 2018 stock compensation lawsuit and the plaintiff's request for $6 billion stock compensation made things worse. But I bought back small portion of TESLA shares I sold last week, because I bet TSLA will succeed in AI including SFD and Optimus. I understand TSLA's share price may drop further and will unlikely rise significantly in the near future. It is ok. I have a diversified portfolio, and my year to today performance is nearly 60% despite of bad performance of TESLD holding. I believe one day within 3-5 years, TSLA will shine the most beautifully. Even if it become zero, I am ok and I have many other winners. I feel proud to be a shareholder of Musk's company even if TSLA become zero.
SMCI: $1128, risen faster than I expected, possibly because business grows faster than expected.
wade, I fully understand your and analysts' points, because just like you, I majored in Math at University. I was an analyst/statistician/teacher for 7+ years.
SMCI: Thanks 2morrowsGains. She may drop below 1000 again today due to the understandable profit taking, and then struggle at 1070 for a few days let those buying at last top off the train. Afterwards the train will run towards 1300, and will never come back. It is still undervalued because the forward yearly earning per share may be $40 and annual growth above 50% in the next a few years. The fair price may be at least $40*50=2000 at gpe of 1. Wade said forward yearly earning per share only $29 because he only used rear mirror just like average dull analysts. I am glad many investors think like wade. Otherwise I would not have been able to buy her at $253 per share 3 months ago.
I could feel the pain your selling SMCI too early. I will continue to pray for you that the share price will fall sharply so that you could buy back. Unfortunately SMCI will continue to gain market share rapidly. Along with rapid AI growth, SMCI will continue to grow 50-100% a year in the next a few years. $1300 is my near term target and $2000-10000 is my long term target. No wonder S&P has put its name on it for its long term potential.
SMCI is to be included in S&P 500 based on after hour news today. This may mean S&P thinks SMCI good for long term. SMCI may be on the way to reach $1300.
researcher59, I no longer read WSJ and anything a journalist wrote, and they may be fun to read with attractive titles but often misleading and thus have no value for sound investment decision. For example, "Samsung lead Apple in selling smart phone", but wise investors would know Apply's profit is 10 times Samsung's. They are copiers with cheap price and low margin but Apple is the leader!
Boom no more Tesla stock under $200: I believe Tesla is the best AI stock at the most undervalued price, I bought heavily at 180, everyone had their chance to buy and no one can ever say they regret not buying Tesla stock under $200
2morrowsGains: I can understand your feeling about the possible share price fall, because I had the similar feeling at the beginning of last December. I bought small number of shares at 292.2 on Nov 17, it then dropped almost daily to about $250 on Dec 7. Worrying it might continue to drop to about $80, the price a year ago on Dec 7, 2022, I spent lots of time and found that the price drop was because of the bad q3 result, but they would have excellent upcoming q4 result because of their heavy investment in research and engineering team. So instead of selling, I bought heavily at $253 on Dec 7.
I believe she will rise over $1300, once break through the $1070 barrier. I indeed sold small amount yesterday afternoon which I bought back this morning. Why? because she is so beautiful with heavy research that she has changed herself from a ugly pure hardware company into beautiful attractive AI butterfly...
Just added SMCI because $1.5 billion convertible deal with no interest convertible at $1341.38 per share means bullish!
SMCI convertible debt at $1,341.38 per share:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/supermicro-announces-pricing-private-offering-051800389.html