With only 20K shares I was able to "drive" SP from $3 to $2.94. So it's obvious there're not many buyers here.

It appears Denner is getting rid of the rest of his shares today.

some bone for your fanatic longs:

If Advaxis is that good, how come its stock (used to trade at around $30/share in 2015) currently being traded under $3/share, but there isn't any institution interested in buying shares? Including those new shares issued recently for employee stock options and management rewarded themselves, the total number of outstanding shares is now at around 43M shares. Given number of institutional at 15M shares (https://fintel.io/so/us/adxs), percentage of institutional holding is now now under 35%.

Show me real data, real facts, rather than uttering those non-sense ... maybe, just maybe...
ADXS is heading to the same path like NWBO and become penny stock by the year end. Mark my post.

ADXS has been traded in $3s range for a couple months, but no institution is interested in buying shares.
In the fall 2013 when Ariad share price crashed from $18 to $3s within 3 weeks, Alex Dener acquired 6.6% stake of the company, Stephen DuBois (of Camber Capital Management) acquired 5.4% and various other institutions with large amount of shares. Hedge funds acquired so much shares that Harvey Berger had to announce a poison pill plan at that time to prevent unsolicited takeover. This is not the case with Advaxis.
Advaxis is no Ariad!

Please show me the link to the announcement that Mauro got fire rather than making a false claim that Everyone knows he was asked to resign.

If Mauro, who was an executive with over a dozen years of combined experience on oncology at Merck and BMS, joined Advaxis only less than 1.5 year and got fired then it's obvious something wrong with Advaxis.

Then please come up one and and explain why it sounds reasonable to you. Thx!

Perhaps you could please share me the links to the data which really shows Advaxis science rocks?
Looking at the articles on Advaxis website, the clinical results aren't that impressive at all.
This could e the reason why David J. Mauro, the recent CMO left Advaxis in 04/2016 for the same position with a much smaller pharma company with only 1 drug still in phase-1. Detailed on this can be found my previous post:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=137338666

Wish you guys lots of luck. But I'm seeing 2018 is going to be as bad as 2017 for Advaxis investors as they're running out of cash and new offerings will further dilute the stock; and even there have been a bunch of news release/announcement in the last two years, but there are still some uncertainty on when ADXS-NEO phase-1 clinical trial will start.

Remember the name "David J. Mauro"? he was the Chief Medical Officer (CMO) as Advaxis and also the lead of MINE program (in collaboration with MSK). MINE was announced in October 2015, but 6 months later the CMO left Advaxis to join Checkmate Pharmaceutical in April 2016. Also, keep in mind that the deal between Advaxis and SGI-DNA was announced one month earlier (in March 2016). If MINE was such that good and promising technology, I don't think the CMO would leave Advaxis to join a much smaller (and still in private) pharma company with only 1 drug still in phase-1. Without the CMO, there wasn't much progress in MINE developement, and this could be the reason ADXS-NEO clinical trial delayed until 2018 and until today Advaxis still hasn't been able to find the replacement for the CMO position.

MINE announcement:
https://ir.advaxis.com/press-releases/detail/1186/advaxis-launches-minetm-collaboration

News relase on the deal with SGI-DNA:
https://ir.advaxis.com/press-releases/detail/1206/advaxis-truly-personalized-cancer-immunotherapy-moves

David J. Mauro's LinkedIn page:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-mauro-55917a12/

According to 8-K form wiki page, the following should be described in the form:
- Results of operations and financial condition
- Creating certain financial obligations, such as incurrence of material debt
- Triggering events that accelerate material obligations (such as defaults on a loan)
- Costs associated with exit or disposal plans

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Form_8-K

According to the latest 8-K filing (dated 12/11/2017) on Edgar:
- The whole Ocera's management has been replaced with Mallinckrodt people.
- There wasn't any mention of the amount of cash shortfall (Ocera's existing cash minus all debts & transaction expenses) described in the 8-K filing. So I guess the deduction of 4cents for every $1M cash-shortfall won't occur and shareholders will receive the full amount $.34/share in the first milestone payment (?)

Given institution holding is still at 49%, I think the reasonable buyout price should be above $3.25 and could be as high as $5/share.

Completely agree with you on a merger or acquisition is the most likely outcome.

BTW, the insider, Dr. Srini Akkaraju, M.D., Ph.D., who acquired almost 1M shares over a week ago, is actually the primary founder of Samsara BioCapital, an Biotech investment firm just filed with SEC in March/2017 with an initial $300M capital. Detailed info can be found via this link
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1699737/000169973717000003/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml

Prior to the crash BioCapital/Dr. Srini Akkaraju had already invested $14M in Versartis (purchased almost 1.5M shares at $12.25). With the doctor's medical background, I think the investor should have a very good knowledge about Somavaratan and decided to put that large amount of money in Versartis. And with the recent purchases, there is a high chance that BioCapital will acquire VSAR.

Also some other Samsara initial investments:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170421005129/en/Syros-Announces-35-Million-Private-Placement

GLTA

By hiring Cowen, they're definitely working hard in getting the company sold given the possibility of Somavaratan to be optimized (w.r.t. dosage/frequent-usge) to meet all targets. Closing down shop, distributing the cash is the last option and they're NOT going to let it happen.

Cash burn should no longer be an issue as they mentioned in Q3 Corporate Update that they had reduced 2/3 force force and eliminated majority of management position (see below)

I think they're in the middle of getting the company sold to private investment group for further development.

Keep in mind that Somavaratan missed its primary endpoint and failed to prove non-inferior to Pfizer’s Genotropin as patients with twice-monthly Somavaratan grew 9.44 centimeters per year against daily Genotropin’s 10.70 centimeters. Beside that Ascendis's TransCon Growth Hormone is injected once-weekly. There is a possibility of de-designing Somavaratan phase-3 clinical trial for the drug to be administered at a higher dose or more frequently (such as weekly like TransCon Growth rather than the current bi-month) for achieving the range of activity to demonstrate non-inferiority.

With this I decided to start with 50K shares this morning.

Thanks fbg,
I made $2.3M in ARIA, the most ever my my last 20yr of investment. I'm also doing very well in OCRX and ARDX, So $230K loss in Advaxis no big deal for me... :)

Thanks, Dew
Unfortunately, I wouldn't trust in Advaxis management and those news release anymore. For every piece of news release comes with a Safe Harbor statement.


I'm sorry at this interpretation of "Bad behavior" for I never meant they're bad posters. What concerned me the most is the majority of the crowd, blindly believing in something without any logical consideration of the reality: like the sudden change in management, the filings delayed, clinical trials delayed, institutions dumping when SP at near 5-year low, short in cash, etc. these fact are just completely at odd with what they're posting/promoting every day. I'm worry about this because I do see this similar pattern on the message board of those highly manipulated stocks and small investors ended up in losing everything.

We all do see the huge potential in OCR-002 once the drug is approved. Unfortunately, Ocera is running out of cash for continuing Phase-3 clinical trials. Please take a look at the most recent 10-Q filing, which can be viewed via the following link:
http://quote.morningstar.com/stock-filing/Quarterly-Report/2017/9/30/t.aspx?t=:OCRX&ft=10-Q&d=3e7ed4398bddc48c25fd56a88e98712c

As of 09/30/2017:
- Cash and cash equivalents $14.35M
- Total current assets $14.96M
- Total current liabilities $11.74M

Minus the debt/liabilities, there are only about $3M cash as of 09/30/17 for running the upcoming clinical trials. And for the current quarter (ended by 12/30/17), as analysts estimated Ocera to post a loss of -$0.20/share or -$5.5M/quarter (see Yahoo! finance page). Therefore, by now (12/07/2017) all of that $3M cash must be gone and Ocera is currently operating on debt.

If the tender offer is rejected by shareholders, Ocera will have to do a couple reverse splits and issue new shares for obtaining cash in order to continue its operations and this will cause share-price dropping significantly in the future.

Mallinckrodt (MNK) is a large pharmaceutical company with over $3.2B/yr revenue, they have the resources for continuing OCR-002 clinical trials, the chance for the drug to be approved will be higher and hopefully, we will be able to receive the final (3rd) milestone payment.

By rejecting the tender offer you don't know what the future of Ocera will be like, but by accepting the offer you know the exact amount of money you're going to receive.

http://quote.morningstar.com/stock-filing/Quarterly-Report/2017/9/30/t.aspx?t=:OCRX&ft=10-Q&d=3e7ed4398bddc48c25fd56a88e98712c

Sorry for my mistake. The following link provide a more clear explanation:
https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-a-tender-offer-4129430

Hi king oil,
I don't know the amount of shares you own and your average share price. Perhaps you should take at look at the link in my previous reply to smallbio, and make your own decision.
As for me the reason I decided to accept the tender offer:
- I'm happy with the $1.52/share payment since my average share price @ $1/share, and I think the first two milestones in the CVR are easily achievable.
- Tax filing advantage: I've already accumulated a huge capital gain in this year, so I don't mind to spend a small portion of pretax money from the OCRX gain for the chance of receiving first two milestone payments.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/rejecttenderofferpublictoprivate.asp

If you want to accept the tender offer, then you'll need to contact your broker ASAP to let them know that you want to do so.
By not doing anything as you stated in your post you will NOT receive $1.52 plus the CVR. But you will receive a one time cash payment which is calculated based on the stock share price of the very last trading day. And the share price could be higher or lower than the current price as explained via this link:
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/rejecttenderofferpublictoprivate.asp

Thanks again, Wrinkles
I'm done for the day and won't look at the charts anymore :)
Good luck to us all and have a wonderful day!

Thanks, Wrinkles
my target will change again based on NGF price movement :)
But I'm adding more at this level and now hold a total 40K shares
Added another 10K shares:
UGAZ - 01:49:52
Bought 7000s @ $9.68 - Total: $67,760.00
UGAZ - 01:49:52
Bought 3000s @ $9.68 - Total: $29,043.95

That's all, won't add any more :)

Do you think Mallinckrodt would gamble $42Mil only not to see the 1st & 2nd milestones? And these two milestones should be easily achievable within 18 months as it's simply the enrollment of the first patient in a Phase 3 Clinical Trial. For detailed info on this, please search for the text “IV Milestone” and "“Oral Milestone” in the following merger agreement document:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274644/000119312517330223/d487980dex21.htm
The 3rd milestone is very difficult to achieve (probability of success is less than 5%), but by that time Mallinckrodt already spent $67M (= $42M + $10M + $15M), and I hope they had already studied the clinical data from the first two phases carefully and not to gamble $67Mil to see OCR-002 failed in phase 3.
Anyway I'm into this mainly for the 1st & 2nd milestone payments.

If NGF stays above $3.18 in the next couple days, UGAZ is definitely moving much higher in the next couple weeks.
Just added another 10K shares @ $9.95
UGAZ - 11:25:41
Bought 600s @ $9.95 - Total: $5,970.00
UGAZ - 11:25:41
Bought 1300s @ $9.95 - Total: $12,935.00
UGAZ - 11:25:41
Bought 8000s @ $9.95 - Total: $79,600.00
UGAZ - 11:25:36
Bought 100s @ $9.95 - Total: $998.95

and will continue holding all my shares until the 2nd half of January.

Looks at the volume, folks
within the first two hours of the day and trading volume already exceeded the daily average. UGAZ is definitely heading much higher.

It's good idea to lock some of your profit.
To hedge the gain in UGZA, I've purchased some DGAZ shares and will sell DGAZ when UGAZ dropping rather than selling my original UGAZ shares
GLTA.

NG future is at $3.08:
https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas
and UGAZ is now trading @ $9.11 pre-market.
I need to change my original plan by holding the shares until the second half of January and will sell at much higher price :)
GLTA

UGAZ will definitely surpass $10 before Christmas and heading much higher by the first 2-week in January. I'm going keep all my shares and probably add more (hope that I won't have to :) ) at least until the second half of January.

with today high @ $3.037:
https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas
I think it's achievable $3.4 by Christmas :)
GLTA

just like last winter when natural gas price jumped from $2.6 in Nov 2016 to over $3.6 in Jan 2017 (see the chart via this link ) and according to the weather forecast, I think gas price has started to rise in the next couple days and will surpass $3.4 by the New Year day.

Thanks!
I'm going to have a bunch of cash by the end of this year (over $900K received from my investment in OCRX), and I will be able to double or even triple my holding if for whatever reason UGAZ dropped back to last Friday level.
GLTA

We're just at the beginning of the winter, so acquiring shares at this level is definitely a gift.
We're going to celebrate the new year with traded in the low teens!

Thanks, Wrinkles
Hope that Friday was the bottom. But if SP dropped below $7.78, I will add another 20K to double my holding. GLTA

having been watched this for over a month, unfortunately I missed the drop last Friday while traveling... :(. Anyway I think it's still a good deal at this level, so I just purchased 20K shares @ $8.28 and plan to sell @ $10.28.

Already acquired a bunch of shares when seeing James Flynn purchased over 2.7mil shares in August.

I believe that that as long as you make sure that the date you purchase OCRX shares and the date you receive the payment for your shares to be acquired by the buyer (for the shares to be canceled) is more than 30 days then the transaction should not be under wash sale. I'm unaware of any exception or special treatment to be applied in case of acquisition/merger.

I think you can get the answer on this by contacting D.F. King & Co., the agent handling the purchase/acquisition. The contact info can be found in the document:
Toll Free#: 1-800-341-6292
Email: OCRX@dfking.com

Mallinckrodt is now owning over 12% of Ocera:
https://fintel.io/i/mallinckrodt
As the majority shareholder of 8M institutional shares, it's 100% certain that the deal will go through.
https://fintel.io/so/us/ocrx

I increased my holding by nearly 200K shares between 11/05 -> 11/09 with an average price of $1.69/share. The reason I'm doing this:
1. Tax advantange: When the deal closed by the year end (hopefully after 12/10), as the shares being canceled I will receive only $1.52, so the difference $1.69 - $1.52 = $0.17 (which is not subjected to wash sale) will be claimed as capital loss, which can be used for offsetting a portion of the capital gain I received from the original shares I owned before 11/02.

2. The 1st & 2nd milestones should be achievable by the end of 2018 or Q1/2019, therefore the investment of only $0.17 (pre-tax money) in order to receive at least $0.70 (or almost 300% gain) in 12 -> 16 months is definitely very attractive.

If you decide to so the same like what I did, please make the date you purchase shares at least 30 days before the date the Ocera stop trading (as shares canceled) or will be considered as wash sale.

Hi Sonic,
Thanks for sending the email to Denner & Sarissa Capital Management.
I did the same and hope that others on this message board will also join in.

Sarissa Capital Management contact info:
Office: 203-302-2330
Fax: 203-930-1560
Email: info@sarissacap.com
http://www.sarissacap.com/