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CETX back in the $2.3s time to buy back? I'm buying a starter position
CGI I took a close look at these guys last week because of the low PE. I don't really know how to put a value on the big gains from asset sales so for now I decided to pass on it.
Also as I've said before I don't see any real insight coming from analysts of small companies. Seems to me that they are just extrapolating out past earnings into the next quarter.
I agree that is a concern. I would say the weather in Texas would be a good reason for this to be stuck in the $1.7s or 8s or higher given the last 2 quarters. If the decline is really due to weather, then GV is in effect still getting a big discount for the Texas issues from last year. Which by the way it should get, but we're talking about a >50% discount here--excessive, in my view.
GV This goofball seller is in complete control right now. I'm not too upset -- If it continues going down after the new year we can talk about the lack of support. They've still made ~$.30/sh in the last year ex-Texas.
GV I'm doubling down at $1.48, could be a big mistake...we'll see!
my only prediction is the HFTs initial move will be a fakeout
NRZ 2 more key points. First is they are selling at a discount to their book value, in addition to their book value being understated. Management gets into this on the CC. Their call rights are probably worth ~$5/sh and do not have a significant carrying value on the balance sheet. Another key point is they actually have positive exposure to rising rates because half their net investment is in MSRs which become more valuable in a rising interest rate environment because people are less likely to refinance their mortgage.
Monday tax loss day? Lot of big red numbers again today
NRZ I'm buying here in the $10s. Looks cheap. Mr. Lsigurd goes into detail here.
http://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/category/new-residential-nrz/
Good luck
@hweb re CSPI I am with you. What caught my eye is they earned $.25/sh last Q before what appear to be temporary issues. Also given their comments next Q seems likely to be somewhat comparable, if slightly worse. $2.65/sh ex-cash.
I haven't looked at it, but if a closed-end fund is selling at a huge discount like that it makes you wonder why they don't liquidate to buy back shares and lock in an immediate profit? Possible excuses are that their holdings are illiquid. But they could sell at half the carrying value and still lock in a profit. Makes you wonder if the carrying value is correct then.
EIL I've been buying in the .07s. Q3 looked pretty nice to me. The problem is they are betting heavily against the USD which is just plain dumb. I'm buying the stock and shorting the CAD against it.
@SSK re tax loss selling
I agree - I have been compiling a watchlist of companies under likely tax loss selling pressure & many of them had big declines today >5%. Not to mention the big decline in oil & all energy stocks today. IMO we are starting to see tax loss capitulation.
So those 9 analysts, representing probably over $10T in assets, are telling a bunch of retail investors that a company with a market cap of $1B is undervalued by over 2x (on avg)? Makes you wonder why the big money backing them doesn't just bid up the price.
anyone try it? actually got a partial fill for a half price cover...
r59 -- true, also there are probably a lot of margin calls there since this is a big momentum stock
For the folks who can monitor their position closely it might be worth a shot
I bet we have at least 1 PR with a lawsuit by 5 PM today -- those guys are quick. I think they're automated.
UVE crazy -- but IMO wait for the cockroaches to come out before buying
IEHC Well that's a nice surprise...
SCRH yep, another one of Snoopy's failed pumps - look out below!
Probably Snoopy still trying to unload his shares
No it's a fair point -- GV is a bit of a puzzle
Thanks for the reply
Do you think it's fair to assume they won't write a single dollar of new business to be worked in the next year? For example, in 2014 they went into the year with approx $74.5M of backlog. I don't think it's terribly useful to assign a multiple to their backlog as there are a lot of variables involved. They could write new business and a large chunk of their backlog is up for renewal and could be pushed forward.
Also I would have to independently verify your profit margin assumptions there because in the TTM ex-Texas they have now made $.29/sh
GV At first glance, I think part of the problem here is revs were down almost 20% qoq, that's quite a drop. And Q3 should be one of the best quarters for construction. That said, if those 20% of revs are disastrous Texas projects, it is actually a good thing they're gone. I don't think the backlog is the problem it wasn't down much qoq.
Looks pretty nice to me, they lost the revs from the money losing projects and are just making money now. I'm not surprised the stock price is down though as it is a bit of a puzzle to put together.
KINS posts $.32/sh (vs. $.26), revs and earnings very similar to last Q. I'd say outlook neutral -- probably a bit undervalued still.
@KIK re PM
I noticed that as well and it is unusual. I don't know why they didn't include it, but I don't get the impression that their management would play us like that, based on their long history of good results with the company. Also they don't have a history of negative surprises. This is all based on intuition so could be wrong as always. I'm just going to wait and see. Good luck.
IEHC just released NT 10-Q with preliminary sales numbers in the $5-5.1M range -- close to last quarter at about $5.17M which was the best in the company's history. This is excellent news as assuming similar margins they will probably post another quarter in the high .20s to .30 EPS, first 1H 2016 earnings around .60 against a share price in the $8s. These guys aren't worth a penny under $10 with these improved results.
Here's an interesting idea I wanted to share.
If anyone ever wanted to profit off a Chinese reverse merger scam I think there is a chance this Q. CMCI is an obvious scam company that I have followed because when I first got into stocks I was fooled by their fake financials. I'm probably the only person in the entire world who looked at their AR, including management who i doubt speaks English. But they "announced" (read: buried in the AR) that they will take a $52m charge against earnings (vs. 28M market cap) because the CEO appears to have basically seized 40% of the company. And the remaining 60% is going to be diluted in an effort to scam Australian investors. (I tried to get the prospectus for the Australian scam but I suspect the bankers did not believe my fake email and phone number, and I'm definitely not giving them real ones). In other words the scheme seems to be falling apart and will show up on financials released at the end of this week. The market did not react, probably because it was a subsequent event and did not affect earnings last Q, and the market in this stock is entirely made up of complete idiots. There is not a big market but someone could possibly make a few 1000 or 10k dollars.
I'm sharing this because my account is too small to short this economically.
Not investment advice, be careful, do your own DD, don't invest any money you aren't willing to lose and more.
Q3 will be good -- should be interesting. Just needs some attention. Went a month with 0 trades...where's Snoopy when you need him?
IEHC looks nice going into their report next week. Made $.79/sh last year and $.32/sh in Q1 (ending June) this year. Easy comp coming up. Shares available in the 7.9s today. Check them out.
lol do you really think he was saying all companies Chinese operations are scams?
re analysts on micro caps
I'm not super impressed with the work of these "analysts" of micro cap companies. It really seems to me that they are just extrapolating out the last few quarters or TTM of earnings into the next quarter. UIHC which just reported is a great example. 10 minutes of work and I knew the "analyst(s)" were completely wrong.
OK sorry if I misread -- If were talking about micro caps then I have no problem.
well if we're going to talk about percentage gains, then a lotto ticket beats stocks any day. The question is can you make money off of it?
In my experience stocks on the OTC are mostly complete crap. The reason there are occasional big winners is because they all get a discount due to bad or dishonest management, among other things like liquidity. I'm with wade on this one -- I've had much more luck on the major exchanges. I had a list of like 10 OTC stocks that looked nice going into their ARs earlier this year and I think every one turned out to be a complete joke, the only possible explanation being that management is lying to shareholders. Only OTC I'm looking at right now is IEHC, which at least looks like a real company.
Re muel
They will trade at a discount until they get their pension situation straightened out. I remember from their big disappointment quarter that we were suspicious of the effect of pension gains and revaluation in their profits.
re HBP hweb, to be fair it was a bit of a messy quarter with the tax benefit and the charge to discontinued ops. It's a bit unfortunate that they had that big charge against discontinued ops in their best quarter. I think there may be a bit of a GV effect going on here.
disclosure: still own all of my shares
UIHC nice to see the market giving them credit for a nice quarter, congrats. Gonna let this one run -- no reason to sell anything in this market.
UIHC reports $.38 EPS vs $.41. Revs up 30%. EPS down due to new cat losses of $.11/share.
Should be interesting to see what the market thinks of this one.
wade I feel for you buddy, hang in there. See if you can find something a bit safer to get your confidence back.