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No problem. I can live with those numbers.
Who will chase the price up if the same management that massacred it's own shareholders is still in place???
Buying ERHE is financial suicide with Peter Ntephe and Sylvan Odobulu still in executive positions.
They are 6 weeks into drilling and there has been absolute ZERO interest in the stock BECAUSE of those two.
$8-$15 per barrel, and I agree who is CEO is mostly irrelevant in a buyout scenario. My fear is they won't sell the company and the market won't value the assets fairly with these shareholder destroying thugs still at the helm.
It's kinda hard to commit your hard earned dollars to a team that has a record of wiping out it's own shareholders.
WTF????
"i remember a few years ago that in Kenya unproven estimates based on 2D were thought to be worth $1.50/barrel. I would be very happy if the number now would be .50 cents/barrel on the Kenya block if the First well proved to be productive."
So you are saying that you would be happy if PROVEN RESERVES are worth a fraction of UNPROVEN ESTIMATES?????????
Have you lost your mind or did you mistype that?
Proven reserves will, by definition, always be worth much much more than any estimates... Always and much much more... always.
Proven undeveloped reserves have value, and that value fluctuates with oil prices to some extent. In 2001 the sale of AKPO assets put that value at $7 per barrel... in mile deep water... with all development costs still required to bring it to the surface.
ERHC's Kenya block is on shore. Cost to develop will be a tiny fraction of deep water costs... and there is a pipeline that's going to be built that will reduce these costs even further.
IMO, proven undeveloped oil in Kenya has significantly more value than proven undeveloped oil in water a mile deep.
Using a conservative number of $12 per barrel, a fully successful well at Tarach-1 that proves the estimated 66M barrels will net ERHC 23M barrels. At $12 per barrel ERHC should be worth $276M, or $5.52 if you assume the shares out go up to 50M.
Now think about what happens when this well derisks the block and the other 662M barrels estimated become more likely.
Think $15 to $35 per share.
But not with this management. They have shown that they will wipe shareholders out if that solution is "quick and attractive".
I have absolutely zero respect for Peter Ntephe and Sylvan Odobulu. They are self serving pigs that wiped out shareholders because that was the easiest course.
They don't deserve entry level labor jobs given their absence of ethical behavior.
As a rig worker he should know that he can't say anything, and as a shareholder everyone should know that if he messes up and does talk they could face jail time for acting on that information.
Ask yourself this... if you contact him and he sings like a bird, can you *not* act on that info? In most cases, if you're honest with yourself, you have to admit that you *would* act on it.
Now ask yourself. Is it worth going to jail for?
I think a big clue came when CEPSA decided to not drill the second planned well. IMO, they got wind of ERHC's presentation back in December that clearly stated they would consider selling the asset, or the entire company, upon a discovery.
CEPSA then chose not to drill the second prospect, which in their eyes would only drive the purchase price up.
Again, IMO, this well will be a discovery, and I am starting to think far bigger than has been estimated to date, and ERHC will be bought out within six months, probably much less.
I just cannot see a future for ERHC as a company after what Ntephe and Odobulu did to shareholders.
Let's hope they underplayed prospects so that they can over-deliver and we finally get a decent valuation and buyout.
It's long overdue for this story to end.
"Hydrocarbons, on the other hand, are constantly being generated by the earth's mantle"
That's true, and in the last 100 years we have extracted the vast majority of oil that took 75 million years to create.
You sound like you are implying that the earth generates oil as fast as we extract it. If that's what you are saying, you couldn't be more wrong.
Not a chance. Ntephe and Odobulu will destroy any chance at those numbers. They believe shareholders exist to be used, depleted, and destroyed, not to realize a gain.
They are incompetent in their positions.
I agree, but this isn't over yet. I strongly believe that we would be in the dollars if Ntephe and Odobulu had been replaced after their shareholder massacre blunder, but that didn't happen. Now we have a stock that everyone is afraid to own BECAUSE of Ntephe and Odobulu. We need Offor to WAKE UP or we may never see fair value in this stock.
Ntephe and Odubulu are shareholder nightmares and Offor needs to recognized that or he loses too. The rookies took the easy way out and destroyed their careers.
midtieroil and ssc are tiny examples of what will follow Ntephe and Odobulu. They can't be trusted.
It's up to Emeka Offor to fix that... he stands to gain more than anyone... if he acts.
Sigh, it's all been said before. What a waste.
We *obviously* look at things differently.
That's the $64,000 question. Normally it would be priced in immediately, but Ntephe and Odobulu have shown that they will massacre shareholders without concern.
Have they destroyed trust to the point that a discovery won't even be priced into the stock? Before anyone jumps down my throat ask yourself, did you anticipate that they destroyed confidence to the point that there would be absolutely ZERO runup even while drilling?
I'm afraid this is dead money until one of two things occurs; Ntephe and Odubulu get replaced, or the company is sold.
They had to widen it for the tanker trucks to haul the oil away!
8-O
To be fair I have increased my position by over a factor of 10 and I continue to buy with the hope that Emeka Offor will pull his head out of his @ss and fire the two people that have cost him over $100M dollars.
If Offor wakes up, I win. If he continues to bury his head in the sand, I lose.
This is a fairly recent presentation, which shows how unqualified Ntephe and Odobulu are in their present positions.
They are touting ERHC as a massive gain stock just after they cut the throats of shareholders. Are they really that stupid??? They are clueless fools. Nobody will buy this stock until convertibles are off the table, and that means replacing Ntephe and Odobulu. They have proven that they will sacrifice shareholders to continue their undeserved paychecks. IMO, this is a dead stock until they are gone.
They could triple/quadruple the share price by resigning... seriously.
Where can I sign up for that $18M value growing to $2B value?
Pencil me in on that, okay?
Quit spamming all the boards you child.
Touche, and a fair one.
I agree with the latter, but not the former. An oil discovery in Kenya de-risks the entire area and makes the 662M estimates more likely. That alone has immense value for our minnow and will likely be the catalyst for its end game.
This company was never intended to survive, long term, IMO.
Not even *I* am that optimistic! $35-$47 per share???
Yowza!
It's onshore, and I am assuming the pipeline will be nearby, considering the extremely cheap labor I am thinking $13 per barrel valuation... 50M x $13 = $650M / 45M shares out = $14.44 per share.
We can debate numbers all day, let's just pray there is oil and then we can agree ERHE will be a 100 bagger+
If all prospects in the Kenya block (unrisked 662M barrels) yield discoveries totaling 150M barrels, $15 per share is a good number.
$15 would still be less than old highs on pre-drill excitement alone.
In a nutshell, you are wrong.
Oh man, that was BAD!
I don't know where you get the $7.90 from. A decade ago I paid $0.79 cents per share. That's $79 split adjusted.
Why is that weird behavior? Offor, the CEO, and CFO combined bought way more than that before the reverse split as well.
It's a case of "follow the money".
LOL!
I tell you I need $79 on shares I bought a decade ago to break even and you reply with "OK so you will have a long term CG"???
Do you really envision the share price exceeding $79???
I would be elated!
Or possibly already AT total depth...
"kownski Wednesday, 05/11/16 11:29:22 AM
Re: None
Post # of 8425
Day 27 of drilling, if there wasn't a 5-6 day delay in reporting to us as they did in the JDZ, so they should be getting very close, imo"
They said it would be roughly 60 days to "complete" the well. To me that means setting the final casing, etc. The bit will have hit total depth (aka they know if there is oil) long before the 60 days.
If it is possible for leaks to reach the rest of the world from the isolated desert of Kenya we should be seeing a spike soon if they found black gold.
Split adjusted, that's 0.0008. $8.00 would be the equivalent to the old 0.08... and those shares I bought back in 2005 will be green when we hit $79
Whoo hoooo!
Ntephe and Odobulu are MORONS.
I expect that after a discovery is known, and maybe an appraisal well or two, but maybe not, ERHC will sell part or all of itself to CEPSA. If CEPSA only takes the Kenyan property, the remaining will be sold to NGAR for a pittance (that none of us will care about) and Offor will be a strong backer of NGAR.
The last two years have destroyed any future for ERHC, IMO. I believe they know that and I believe that is the exact reason for NGAR.
Take *significant* profit from Kenya and continue on under a new name and with a new CEO. They need that clean start.
If there is a commercial discovery ERHC will have no trouble finding financing and your billion share boogieman is a joke.
Of course you know that.
So you are still saying that a company that exceeded a market cap of $700M on the hopes of a JDZ discovery...
... a company that had a market cap of $70M before Ntephe trashed it with convertible debt...
will not exceed that latter value even with a discovery?
Yea okay, you keep saying that. Repeating it 100 times won't make it any closer to true.
It should be FAR higher than that. The loss of trust due to the convertibles is killing it. Until they are off the table this thing is going nowhere. A real CEO would understand that.
"The exact number is 18.8% Love it or hate it."
The exact number of children per family in the U.S. is 1.85. Does that mean that every family has 1.85 children? Of course not.
The reality that we face is this well is a success or failure, they find oil or they don't. If they find oil, we'll be fine. If they don't, everything Ntephe has done will come into question and his next moves will be watched very closely. If he buys the assets, he is toast, IMO.
"Geological calculations are precisely what drives oil and gas company share prices."
Anadarko's geoscientists must be lousy at math because their calculations were all over the place if what you say is true (which it isn't).
From $40 to $80 to $35 to $75 back below $40 and north of $80 again. CLEARLY a indisputable display of struggle between fear and greed, regardless of what precise geological calculations said the value was.
You saved me the effort.
If it hits $1 it's because well logs are showing oil. $1 is a market cap of 35(ish) million dollars.
With proven?
$10-$20 on any oil shows in Kenya, IMO. They derisk the other 600M barrels of estimated oil.
You are valuing 22M barrels of oil at $2.85 per barrel.
Try $10 per barrel... at a fair value I am on board completely.
"After all these years, Pete and friends will not close on any deal units 12 month pass from their last buy. "
I think you are wrong.