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Crack 1: figures are as follows sorry sending this from an iPhone . 15mill revenue year one , 5$ per canx 25 percent capacity utilization in year 1 with. 10 percent growth in CPU until max 95a% . Gross profit is 20% per can kept constant . Called sga 500k with 10 increase as utilization will increase . Non recurring expenses 25k constant (just a guess will be higher in early years then taper off) called an interest expense about 50k again just a guess and assumed corporate tax rate of 35% . Made a lofty assumption on income Avaliable to preferred shareholders as 30 percent I'm guessing its 10 but that bit number should mitigate any under estimations in top section . I am calling income Avaliable to common 1.2m first year / 61.2 m outstanding shares (for simplicity called that the weighted average ) used a sector multiples ranging fr 5-40 giving me a share price basis year one alone of (.10-.77) however that's not the full method. By year 5 with same multiples and growth factors used .29-2.31 . (Does not include a discount ) do your own discount perhaps / .29 (1+I) ^n with 8 percent I would call a 5 multiple .19 . If used industry avg of 30-1 same gives 1.17 . Hell at 5 cents a share your looking at 20-25 times your investment in 5 years . Sign me up . Let me know if anyone thinks certain numbers should be tweaked and why more importantly .
Keep the cheapies coming boys ,(hate to use the word cheapies but when trading on a fundamental perspective of future earnings I will use that word) come on pps of this little girl will be .50-.66 cents diluted at 5 bucks a can and an 83% capacity utilization and assuming an avg sector multiple . Come on mm keep on shake shake shaking the tree to get out the mono players and weak a$$ longs
Thanks for quick answer guess I read over that about 4 times today . So similar product generated 40m over 10 years but different marketing outlets . What does the competition look like on this is there another pancake /waffle in a can . I don't think I've ever seen such a product in Canada. As well what's the sale price on batter blaster or better yet if someone knows rev/unit of nates pancakes
I'm a little confused here . So batter blaster is the brand Nate created that has sold 15m in revenues ? So is Nate pancakes something different do shareholders obtain the right to batter blaster . Is that 10-12m capacity meant for bb or np or both .
All in ! On penny capital allocation at least . Don't let me down longs Remember folks if your looking for a couple month play to a few years these guys look great in terms of eps basic and dilutive relative to pps today . Upside .66 downside (well somewhere around here I am assuming) will give a full frontal eps forecast and pps basis some assumptions in coming weeks but for now shutting the screen /message board off .. See you guys in the high teens . "Think like a fundamentalist and trade like a technician "
Actually it's all automated pick total volume to sell , unit to show than it just does it automatically I used to have to do it in the ice exchange when trading certain spreads hell even cme I have to do it with certain commodities .
I know it the commodity world you can do it the first way but not the second . It's called an iceberg . So in an illiquid market if I am trying to sell 100,000 shares but I know that will create a level of restiance I will show 10k for example as just attainable order flow , once the you buy the 10k It will show another 10k until the full 100k is bought . Now I don't think you can flash 100k with it only being 10k . Reason is if someone wanted to buy that you have committed to selling it once it hits the board . So can be one way but not the other. Sorry of this is wrong on pennies but its the basis behind market manipulation in futures and options markets and that's how it works there . Any contrary info , would be something for me to learn as well . Also by the sounds of it they will play games lets say that want to buy at .085 mm will put a big sell order in at .09 in the hopes that retail guys will front run the pps down ton.085 so he can buy sometimes he gets slapped but I imagine he achieves the goal more often than not . Penny stockers with level 2 is that correct ? Lol I don't have level 2 my canadian bank doesn't give it for pinks
Looks like a good ole fashioned "bear trap" in my opinion upside is 3x4x first intial leg up . Happy accumulation folks this isn't just hype without the backing the numbers suggest higher numbers for them patient folk. But as a chartist or fundamentalist this weakness if perfect time . Use tomorrow if red to catch some of what you missed Friday . Cheers and I recommend turning off the monitor and re Visiting this Beaty in a few weeks time with some sell orders in . Your gonna need the stomach in the short term and may second guess your position after seeing 30% gone from getting in at .10 like this cat . Patience and happy trading
Fack I don't have level two on pennies would be nice on a day like this i mean volatility is a day traders dream . Anytime anyone posts am updated real time quote is much appreciated for where the hell I should bid . Thanks to anyone
If you did just a basic eps projection without total auth you get about 6m to common net income / 60 m shared x 30 -1 sector multiple . Alot of "rough" figures there but even with dilutive numbers still at .66 . Love this dude I've invested in some otcs in jot sector with hot products and I cannot stress enough how important it is not to have a bunch of donkeys running the show , his track record speaks for itself . Spread your eagle wings american investors and watch this thing soar .
Not to precise but found a food processor p/e for sector for Nasdaq on 97 firms on nyu stern school of business website and quoted 33 times for the sector take my previous diluted eps at .02 and make that stock price .66 diluted !!! I don't usually get giddy but buy the intra day pull back with both hands , hell learn to juggle play guitar on the streets whatever you can to get more of these shares as this should be a long term gold mine or at least a short term winner . Cheers
Agree man I picked this one up from you and I am a trader for a fortune 100 company . Kudos bro
Let me adjust we are both right . Basic eps is avg number of shares outstanding the issuance is proffered so need to figure out what portion they get paid before dividing by the 60m because p/s comes off the top. Lets say for the sake of it 10% so that approximate 6m to common divided by 60m x 10-1 is 1.00 share price basis basic eps if diluted and you need to include all common shares that can be dilutive in this case the whole auth number is still .20
I'm going based off these numbers any input is welcome . I will use your 50m revenue be ause I don't know any different *20% gross margin =10 mill ebitda , I don't know corporate tax rate in us we always used 35 percent in school but I'm a Canadian so don't know better call it about 6.5 million / total authorized shares (believe you have to include all possible shares not just current outstanding gives diluted eps of .0216 call a conservative p/e 10.0 so .2016 target . Sh*t load of assumptions made there so anyone with input and we can tweak this puppy out and get something more accurate . Also if I remember crra was carrying a low negative retained earnings so this shouldn't affect income to common s/h to much . Comments ?
Agreed I'm a Canadian and I'm working us markets are open . My opinion is base don what cdub claimed if that is a legit answer from eaph and its another cliff hanger week this thing will piss out more money than Charlie Sheen at a strip club . So why stick around , I'm a trader not an investor glta
Also want to add in what world can you not negotiate for other m&a activity , if that was the case which it is not why release to the public you have another deal going . The only reason is to provide leverage but where int he world do you generate leverage with one being mutually exclusive off the other . Red flag . That is bs complete bs you this went from I need a pen to sign the final deal which was apparently done to now the other company's lawyers are going over it .
Oh so your saying that Easton has found another way to string us along . F&k if one phrase my old boss used to tell me "when in doubt get out" il wait to the eom when they release news and still probably be able to pick this turd back up cheaper than where I sell out . Cheers
Same boat as you chief , day trading it and at 31.1 percent nothing fancy but it gets the job done . And just watching to see what happens with revenues and te balance sheet to determine if its worth the investment . For now taking a read on message board to get info to save time like your post on the debentures and to gauge general public sentiment for better day trading entries if they match the techs . Cheers .
Appreciate info on the debentures good to know . You have to issue these to finance projects , it cant all go Into floats , then retire as soon as you can but retire basis cash flows not issuances . Clearly they haven't been doing that prior ;however, let see how they do going forward with a tangible asset in a brand new market . The name of the game has changed for them . But lets not forget that big old stinker hanging over them for many years in the form of their retained earnings . Doesn't make these guys a home run either but the product exists and now it times to generate cash flows . Retire debenture interest to help stop possible further share dution , then a share buy back . This really isn't a stinker yet from a fundamental perspective for at least a couple years . Until then take profits on positive sentiment not justified by sector volume hikes and trade techs like you did Friday . Cheers
Are new debentures being issued for the time being and if so what is the price on them is it the .005
Number like your previous post tagged the lt debs ? If I were running this company and I had debenture payments come due and no source or cashflows I would be forced to finance them with shares and given where these were put on the books prior to hype of the mmj days I would need to do that to keep above water . Not would be determined by the analysis if my machines can generate a higher yield than repaying down the I/r on the debentures then shoot the puck for the projects of not retire more as a way to help strengthen the b/s. agree?
As per previous quotes way to back up your comments with numbers . Nice to see
I'm assuming that was just a general public announcement lol as I said I have no position I got in at .045 got out at .0590 , now it's neutral time. But as said there isn't enough people running numbers , money can still be made just sure as sh*t won't feb numbers . Glta
I can't say it isn't concerning , but these start ups have a hard time generating financing without a form of collateralization ie revenues, assets or cash flows so equity financing is the only means to get things going to buy these machines and subsidiaries to create a value chain . You have to look at each individual issuance on a transactional basis and asses why this is being done . If its to grow the company and acquire assets that will know day generate positive n/I I think you almost have to make the dilution . I personally am not a big fan of issuances to retire debt , but certain debt must be retired within set time frame which I would have to look into in better detail . I am not a fan when your just retiring debt with equity for the purpose of retiring it when I think it should be using it to undertake various projects . I feel the same with dividends as well , depending on the yield I feel it a signal that the company's best way to return value to the shareholder is done via a cash payment I always would rather see higher yielding projects being undertaken or a share buy back because then it is a signal insiders view the shares as undervalued relative to the market . So I do like the management and to be honest the content of most the companies quotes much much better than others . But
Lets see how they keep doing things and if at one point some shares are bought back . Does anyone have an idea on a few numbers for me ... 1. The sale price of the machine . 2 the full cost to acquire the machine . And I will make my own assumptions given volume , fcs /oh per unit . As well as any other
Sources of revenues within these machines . Fwiw I usually disclose positions and right now I'm am sidelined on this one and didn't purchase today on the 100dma as I was waiting for a volume confirmation for a bounce to coincide with price levels . Either way once this company starts generating cashflows and has acquired what they can for market share it is out job to "lobby " for a share buy back it will be in everyone's best interest to skim this down . But until then there's not enough people running the numbers that you can trade sentiment as a better short to medium term proxy than say the financials .
Interesting . Very interesting . Would have to see specifics on that bill . A typical chartered bank b/s is built up by loans , don't know in any degree if these "banks" can loan out money or just act as a depository institution or what the deal is. Maybe it's just a normal bank allowed to recognize the cash as non laundered then your just betting on various existing banks . Security , hell I even just like the idea of a good management team with a proven record for start ups vs ex convicts /Newley classified companies like failure junior mining companies and less than an asinine amount of shares outstanding . I truly am not big on products like edibles patches etc i think that market can be incredibly saturated but who knows maybe you find the First-to-market firms for that line of stuff . Anyways the bank thing is worth a look .
Ya for sure , it's same across the sector .. Not all of course but more or less most I am tracking are trading around the 200 Dma , all above as well or bounced once . No worries on jp I guess why give out your secrets . Something interesting for anyone on here check out the characteristics of a bubble market chart , type that into google and you will see the life cycle a bubble market and interesting enough it looks like 90 percent of pot stocks . I had the same plan as jp to diversify over the sector or throw sh*t at the wall and see what sticks but I guess they can better allocate capital across a sector than I can . Great play while volatility and volume were there ... Now not so much . But there are some big big winners that will transpire in this sector but I'm thinking now that the easy money has been taken out , much much more diligence across the average investor to figure what' is a respectable p/e , what should sector eps look like , b/s strength etc etc. I do like the companies potential. But seeing some quarterly results/Progress reports and quite frankly weeding out which companies are scams and which aren't. There wil be long term institutional money come into this sector no question , but that's required reliable results and even then still doesn't guarantee half these stocks will trade in the next 10 Years to we're they traded in feb/mar given the sickening amount of shares they have outstanding . What everyone should remember is a stock is a representation of the free cash flows a firm will generate on a per share basis (perceived) combined witj a typical weighting on performance by a p/e for the sector . 0therwise your trading a bubble and who knows of this bubble has burst but if you got in during march when the rest of the general public I can tell you that is what we in the trading world see as the perfect time to get out . Happy searching folks but this could be a long term beauty . Cheers glta
Great post . Glad this site isn't all just people bashing each other with completely biased opinions . I would add that I think your level of "retracement" from the 200 could possibly be high . Without the volume/conviction of the sector (and another suspension doesn't help) those participants entering the market at a similar level may look to take profits quicker . Any kind of hesitation at the 100 and I think there will be enough people on edge to take it back down and then from there see if it double bottoms , any kind of divergence and level of volume vs a volume moving avg should be pretty good indicators on direction from there . I personally think sector volume comes back come quarterly earnings and fully (say 60% of jan-mar) back to the quick acting firms who have established revenues and free cash flows and dare i say positive after tax earnings! Got a question . Your buddy at jp Morgan did he ever explain how they pick the penny stocks/micro sectors , my assumption is volatility and sector fundamental analysis or is it something different ?
Agree 100% , but I'm not trading these guys for their balance sheet, future free cash flows are simply their tweets , I'm trading them based on investor sentiment which seems to be going to sh*t right now . But you better believe if an announcement comes out Monday this thing gets a nice pop, only problem is everyone's profit taking targets are moving further and further down by the day . Taking out the simple 50dma / falling wedge will be tough . Oh not to mention series a dilution . Still money to be made just depends on entry /exit but getting 3-5 times your investment might be a tough go given emotions after this weeks cliff hanger tweets .
Who knows who is doing the tweets but if it is Carla pepe, I imagine English isn't her first language and those kind of mistakes are possible ... As evidence shows time after time. Or perhaps she doesn't have Microsoft word to type the text Into because although word doesn't pick up every mistake it does pick up that mistake with a squiggly blue line below it . Or maybe she doesn't care similar to me when posting or texting . All in all mistakes like that create less faith in a big m&a announcement lol. As much as I hate to believe these guys about anything frankly , filing the series a is suggestive of equity financing for this deal we are waiting on . Only problem is you can't view the documents in Edgar . Soon as you can it better say this is related to a business transaction merger or acquisition or run for the hills. I mean doesn't it seem suspicious already that you would file this via paper doc vs electronic ... Wouldn't you want your investor to see the nature of the deal ? But hell nothing has been transparent to date why would they start now ?
I don't see eaph on there anywhere . However , and I mean however doesn't mean they are right around the corner . I hate how their progress is posted via twitter doesn't measure the assets to be purchased , the capital outlay or the source of financing/price tag . Other companies (legit / competent) have this usually lined out , source of financing and as well the mmj plays that have been getting done involve a level of pre-financing as in a cash outlay which acts as a payment in good faith . Sorry I forget the company trying to buy vodis hit they have all of that layed out even though there a failing mining company , the report is much much more informative than eaph. I would think your goal as a fraudster / misleading company (but doing so with vague updates to save your ass) would be more careful than what was put on twitter . They are in too deep now with specifics from this week . usually they let the investor fill in the information gap but now its either a deal or an sec investigation , but given the track record market faith is dwindling . Anyone notice the sentiment on this message board from Wednesday today ? Wednesday was get me in get me in . Yesterday was hmmm not so sure without a pr, and today is more of a I told you so from the bears . Sentiment lines up pretty damn close with price action and volume . So thanks folks . To buddy who called me out just want to say I told you I could replace those shares cheaper ... And I did . We need to hold 200 dEma or else we will test low twos , but hey what do I know not like I said no pr on Friday this puppy gets cheap . Anyone really comfortable adding at 2.60/2.50 or would you rather wait to see how the 200 day holds up and go from there ? When a market has no fundamentals all you have to trade is technicals and we all know how to trade charts ... I think . Cheers glta and like I said yesterday be careful folks . Oh one more thing thanks eaph for making my canadian long weekend into a normal weekend , no longer is Sunday a day of drunken shannigans but instead getting up early to see if there is an m&a tweet to load up . Much appreciated .
Thanks for answers on level 2 ppl. Much appreciated ! Boy it is dead today no one wants to buy until confirmation and no one wants to sell . IMO if the general market place had major conviction that we weren't just being let on this thing would have put in a higher higher yesterday and today vs the inside day and nothingness today as pre m&a activity usually gets silly. Does anyone think this is a buy here or a sell ? Does anyone have just as much faith today as they did 3 days ago . Hopefully next week I'm not saying to myself "fool me once shame on me , fool me twice ... Well someone is getting a Bag of sh*t on their doorstep"... Hypothetically of course! Cheers glta
Insiders are not black listed prior to m&a activity on OTC companies ? Fack that's easy coin lol
Buy back in at 5 ...? Hell you can have my whole position at 5 if you want . Any other takers . This thing is low twos by tomorrow if no pr and if something Monday I can replace whatever portion I sell prior to it reaching that level again . Volume tells the tale today my goodman and like I said before the risk premium is building by the hour and there will be many who dump, not to say you can't make money , hell I hope you do because it means I making money too with the remainder of the position . Also no idea why everyone thinks I'm a bear , I'm not . But there are two possible deals one is much much more advantageous than the other . I think topical applications will move the market less than being on the ground floor . Ambiguity will hurt to. Glta and happy trading
Lights out meaning bearish as in good night your run is done etc etc . If your thinking bullish I wish you good luck because this thing is going to break faster than an old lady's hip . Agree?
Where did you find that .. Doesn't look like eaph pr but if your right its lights out eaph
The risk premium is building by the hour ! There is no guarantee this isn't just a hemp based products company either . This sure could be a buy the rumor , sell the fact type deal. If it a products company and they have a better deal going at the same time this thing gets cheap, and I mean cheap. Week volume indicative of lack of positive speculators entering, especially when pr should be prepared and ready and supposedly received attorney copy yesterday . Anyone notice on Edgar there is no filing, I know they said other options but to have the series a ready and literally back out at the last minute because of other options is fishy to say the least . Be very very careful all. Hold on tight folks tomorrow will be a bumpy ride it no announcement . Also I want to point out I am loving this message board more and more by the day... Excellent indicator on public sentiment ie remove the regular bulls and bears as they are pretty constant in their opinions and notice the every now and then posters and new comers and you get a pretty good idea on sentiment ... Today is sh*t lol and you won't see too many new longs entering without twitter/pr confirmation , which is the recipe for a retrace. Happy trading !
I've never thought anyone has been malicious .. To me at least . I think 30 mill is possible on news of a deal it just seems the whole sector is having a hard time mustering volume like in feb/mar and some other otcs have been closing deals in last 30 days and still less volume than feb. thinking we are probably closer to a new norm but much kudos to you boys who bought the "cheapies" with a one in front , I was on the sidelines waiting for tangible news which we still haven't received but its enough for me to be 86% back in . Good signal on vol and price few days ago and yesterday . Close the deal or retest the 100dma and fail is my opinion . I don't know about .154 hell I would love to see it but I imagine positive news followed by another cliff hanger breaks the downward falling wedge and retests 6-7 and if it does so on low to med volume that's the profit taking signal for short term traders . For long term I have no f"in idea , I'm a commodity trader I can barely put a position on for a month . Glta
Is this real time / level 2 or both . Thanks for response
Can anyone tell me where I can find free level 2 quotes for this stock my bank trading account is fifteen minutes delayed which is a joke , and my quotation system only gives me real time commodity quotes at work . All stocks are 15 delayed as well. Any answers are much appreciated , thank you
Agree 100% . My skepticism is down from last week but part still remains . I do not want to see this thing carry over to next week . Close one, let pps run , then tweet about other opportunities . "Bulls need to be fed" and the other company opportunities seems sorta like wasted ammo for next week after the closed deal. IMO
Also one of the constant Longs mentioned suing everytime you loose . I assume anywhere here understands when you step into the OTC ring you will take a few punches in the mouth: frankly you will take more than you dish but will land a few haymakers for sure . However that march 18th press release is more than enough to have a case that is clear misleading of shareholders and is bullshit and although I sold that rally Imagine many didn't and own shares in the 6,7s and now down to nothing . 10 days .. However many trading days between had investors thinking there was a closed deal only to learn there wasn't . Regardless if the intent was to purposely misinform or if it was an accident there is an onis that exists to have "ought to have known" and this group people calling themselves a company is 100% liable for that shit . So all of you mentioning you how much you lost and in some cases it seems serious , there is recourse you can take but don't expect to get much back because the company is worth nothing per share . Don't let these longs bash you for being upset complete bullshit and complete smoke and mirrors . FYI the company being acquired in a m&a transaction usually wants to be disclosed as the acquiree usually rises in value and the acquiree falls (more often than not. But not always ) just more red flags . I hope these people that lost material amounts of cash rally together . If I'm wrong so be it I would prefer that but there entrance to the mmj industry has been going on since June 23,2013