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More marshmallow fluff to come out of Yellen's mouth before the fed meeting.
At 2pm EST on Wednesday, the Fed will release its infamous "dot plot" showing projected interest rates, along with economic forecasts and a policy statement. It should be noted that the Fed has a terrible forecasting record. Nonetheless, markets will continue to hang on every utterance of the gnomes in the Eccles Building. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said prior to May's disappointing jobs report that a rate hike would make sense "in the coming months." After the May report, she started to backtrack. The Fed originally projected four rate hikes in 2016, but now we are more likely to see only one.
And we aren't going to learn much of anything on Wednesday - unless you think the opinions of people who are consistently wrong are worth knowing.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-15/unprecedented-jump-vix
That sounds like a good move. Lately, Yellen makes her comments the market gets a pop and drops back down. I thought we would see more volatile conditions today considering the close in Europe today. Best of luck.
About ~$1,000Bn of S&P 500 options expire this week. The gamma imbalance turned towards puts yesterday ($9bn per 1% currently), and this will likely push realized volatility higher near term. Post expiry, clients are likely to roll put strikes higher, which will also be supportive of higher volatility. Yesterday’s large move on the VIX indicates short gamma exposure of dealers on VIX products as well.
I hope that they do. Indeed the ViX is back. Let's hope it brings back its magic
Have you seen the odds on the Brexit vote today? Cheers
It's going to be interesting how this all plays out. I'll be in England at the end of July and August.
It sure does seem that way.! Maybe the bilderberg conspirators will have their way and plan a Brexit coup. Lol
And it seems that France wants to get in in the EXIt party!
http://yournewswire.com/france-announce-likely-exit-from-europe-ahead-of-brexit-vote/
Interesting read. Nothing new, but you may enjoy seeing the future. Lol
http://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/finance-news/imf-confirms-nightmare-scenario-for-central-banks-is-now-in-play/
I love it
Gld, have a good weekend . And happy painting !
Good point. I lived in England for 4 years and have thought about relocating. I'll be there in August to survey the situation regarding a move. It's always been one of my favourite places to be. They have made a real mess out of Europe. When I was a boy going to Italy for the summer, when you hopped on the bus it was 100% Italian . Now, when I go back to visit and do the same, you'd be lucky to have a 50-50 split of Italians and foreigners. Mama Mia!
In 1972 the British Prime Minister Edward Heath, signed the British People into the Common Market thus starting the steady decline of the UK’s sovereignty to Europe.
Vote yes .... To Brexit!
I agree with you. It's a protest to the brokenness of the system in my view. I made the mistake of voting for Dubya in his first turn at potus and I haven't and will not vote since that first mistake.
Hi Gld. I just came back from a short holiday break. I'm only an hour from the jersey shore ( don't know if that's a good or bad thing) lol.! Hope you had a good holiday. I saw that the conference board's consumer index was down, while Michigan's consumer index was at an eleven month high. A standoff on where we stand on household optimism perhaps?
Cheers!
The fed " needs" to raise rates to be be able to cut rates. Lol
The market moved up nicely today, as investors continue to play a Whac-a-mole version with the cute little creatures replaced by not-so-cute members of the Federal Reserve Board.
As the debate intensifies over whether the Fed is raising interest rates or not, the U.S. energy sector, already under pressure, is about to feel a whole lot more of it.
It makes no difference if the Fed raises rates in June, July, or September (nothing happens on this front in August). And it makes no difference whether we end up with only one or two more hikes this year.
Any way you look at it, a wide swath of U.S. oil and natural gas producers are going to take it on the chin. Bankruptcies, mergers and acquisitions, and asset sales one step ahead of the sheriff will be increasing.
Oils short reprieve should continue its downward slide and link back up with the it's comrades in the commodity clique.
In May, there has been a clear divergence between Oil and other commodities. But believe that Oil is the errant outlier, helped by deep but temporary supply outages in Canada and Nigeria, and is more likely to catch down to other commodities going forward rather than the other way round. look for Oil gyrations as short-term heavy volatility, within a long-term downward trend.
The fed raises rates , China devalues, pop goes the weasel
Indeed. A smart guy Tom. Should get interesting the next few weeks.
So we could have: " it's the economy stupid" part deux !
Bloomberg today reporting the Saudi's only have $ 116 billion in US treasuries. The Saudi's maintain their claim of $750 billion. So what gives? Should we meet in the middle on that number and all be happy?
This rapid cycling of indicators can only lead me to believe that there is some structural instability rumbling though the edifice and these are fissures letting of some steam caused by the pressures injected into it via the CB's of the world.
Thank you
VPU ---> great looking 5 year chart.
Gld- would you say that the "rustbelt" was a victim of financialization in the 70's & 80's. It was it the fact that the US was a late stage developed market by then? Also, has anyone written an excellent account of this phenomenon. ? I would appreciate your guidance.
Lol. I thought you would like that.
I can calculate the motions of erratic stars, but not the madness of of the multitude- Sir Isaac Newton after the South Sea Bubble
Tax the sheep. They get what they deserve for being complacent. Right?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-09/st-louis-fed-slams-draghi-kuroda-negative-rates-are-taxes-sheeps-clothing
Wouldn't that be something! I look forward to the race tomorrow. . Cheers!
Yesterday I was talking about Leicester city and the odds a $20 bet paid $100,000 . Then jokingly I said, maybe I'll go with the long shot Trojan Nation at the derby 66:1. I was at Starbucks when I said this. An hour later, as I was leaving I opened the door and to the right of me of all things, were six Trojan condoms in their rightful packages. I took it as a sign. Going with the long shot win- place- show
Nicely said.
Now that is the long lost American Dream that you had the opportunity to live out. Kudos!
How bout those poor souls, who have seen the cost of higher Ed increase 1100% since 78'. And find themselves living at home with mom & pop. Working jobs that do not require a college degree and have seen the homeownership at its lowest since what? 62' and are going to be worse off than their parents. Good stuff!
We should be receiving checks soon. Of course I'll just parlay mine into the holdings I have in the market.
They better circle the island with bombers.
BoJ watching the Nikkei continue its downward slide as they assess the implementation of negative rates before deciding to act. When you have three arrows in your quiver the options are limited;
The three arrows of Abenomics:
The monetary arrow: expansion of the money supply to combat deflation
The fiscal arrow: increased government spending to stimulate demand in the economy
The structural arrow: structural reforms to make the economy more productive and competitive.
Next move by the BoJ? " wait and see"
You are definitely having fun, I can tell! That 5 day SLV CHART looks great as well. I call it a climber. Can't wait to see what the market brings next week. All the best...
Gld- if the seasonal cycle rapidly moves the way it might according to your models, what is the underlying message of the market if that is case. There is an underlying message there.