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Nah. I think that they are just describing the inclusion criteria for the study.
Calcineurin inhibitors revisited: A new paradigm for COVID-19?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7320855/
And look at KALA, down 15% as I write.
I think AUPH is going to be 3x current levels at buy out, but those expecting a big jump on FDA approval may be disappointed
It’s just some additional analyses of same trial data...
that supports the case for favorable labeling
FTFY
Why expect fire from this? The only thing that can or should create fire is positive data.
But don't despair, shouldn't be long now
AUPH announced AURORA last study visit on 10/16/19 and top line results 49 days later on 12/4/19.
Assuming a similar timetable for AUDREY that puts us at 11/16/20. Of course the AUDREY study only has 9 sites, all in the US, and fewer outcome measures, so data collection and analysis may be simpler.
Cheers!
Thank you, that is a very helpful article
Nice! I'm very much an amateur when it comes to options. Nice to know what others are doing. Plus, it helps with the boredom
Sold Oct $15 puts for 1.50
Awesome! Could you please follow up with your contact to confirm/deny the existence of Fight Club? TIA
Just for the record, one year ago we were trading in the 5s (or worse). 2-3x in one year is great and I expect that we'll do another 2-3x (or better) in the next year. Sorry that you bought when you did, but hard to blame the company for that. Not their job to manage the unrealistic expectations of short term traders.
If I was on the receiving end of an email like the one you posted I would not reply either. "Mark as junk" and move on.
I sold the Sept $14 puts for $1 today. Glad to pocket the premium and if this market weakness continues, will be glad to buy at $13 (effective) in a few weeks.
Hopefully >30 in 6 months
Kinda wishing we did have an AdComm now...
Wonderful. They should write it up and submit for peer review
You are absolutely correct. There is junk science everywhere, including in The Lancet. This is my point exactly.
I have nothing against hydroxychloroquine specifically and would be first in line to prescribe it (or, heaven forbid, take it if I were sick) if it is shown to help.
For anyone interested you can find a reliable source for current state of the art of COVID19 treatment by googling "NIH COVID treatment guidelines"
My goodness greggors. The anecdotal experiences of "front line doctors" do not constitute scientific evidence.
Aurinia has been spending years and millions of $$$ running clinical trials. Why? They should just hire some mercenary docs to make a viral video about how Big Nephron is holding them down!?
Real science is hard. It takes significant time and money to run a proper clinical trial. There are many dead ends along the way. You invest in biotech, you know this.
And yet, against all evidence... HYDROXY CHLOROQUINE! Give us a break...
...or maybe expected regulatory events are already priced in and don't significantly move the price
ARIA: Ponatinib approval 12/14/12, stock dropped 20%
ARRY: Enco/Bini approval 6/27/18, stock dropped 4%
EXEL: Cabo approval for RCC 4/25/16, stock up 5%
These are just a few examples of companies I have followed through approvals. By the time PDUFA date rolls around, approval is basically priced in. Maybe AUPH will be in a better position than others for a gain if they get the label they want, but a giant pop on announcement of approval would be the exception and not the rule.
Btw, I'm still long 2/3rds of my AUPH shares, but I'm not hanging my hat on getting rich on the approval announcement.
FDA approval announcement likely won't cause any significant jump. It may even drop as focus shifts to commercialization.
CG 806 AACR abstract presentation 4/27, something to look forward to
Hope we get some new info this afternoon. In case it hasn't been shared here previously, here is the link to the abstract:
https://casehippo.com/apps/symposium/national-kidney-foundation-2020-spring-clinical-meetings/event/gallery/abstracts?abstractId=1616
Nicely done!
Yes. Two related secondary endpoints:
Quality of life questionnaires and change from baseline in the SELENA-SLEDAI Index score
Of course, no SLE pts without LN were in the study
Wasn't me. I own 2x more APTO than AUPH and I believe APTO will eventually be 8-10x today's price, unless it gets taken out early like ARQL
Plz tell me you guys invested in APTO. Unstoppable. (I'm still holding all my AUPH)
I'm not selling either. Know what you own. Continue to have patience. Nothing goes straight up.
I think that the biggest barrier to BO currently is label uncertainty (will it support IP protection through 2037) and relatively short timeline to Audrey readout. How do you value the company accurately without those two data points?
Anyway.... I've waited this long, don't mind waiting another year. Might even buy some more if it dips low enough.
I have a ton of APTO (even more than AUPH) with an avg of 2.11. it's trading high based on ARQL acquisition. I expect it to trade lower in the post JPMorgan slump, especially if no second bidder emerges for ARQL. May be opportunities to get back in in late Jan. I'm not selling any APTO until we hit 50.
Given the history of Aspreva and Greenleaf's CV this has got to end in buy out.
Just like when Denner got into ARIA (or MDCO for that matter), the question is not if but when.
i fear the 17s
iHub APTO board is dead. Yahoo finance and Twitter have active discussions on this company. Also, listen to recent Piper Jaffray conference recording for a good intro to this company
do it again with APTO
Agree. No big deal. Onward and upward, in even better financial shape than before
I'll mention APTO again. LOXO and ARQL are ahead of them in development of noncovalent BTKi, and they have both been acquired. APTO drug is better than both LOXO 305 and ARQ 531 in that it blocks all known mutant and WT BTK and FLT3. Applications in both lymphoid and myeloid leukemia. Not to mention their second drug in development (MYC expression inhibitor) which is looking good as well.
Expecting it to be up today in sympathy with ARQL buy out. Maybe wait for it to settle down before buying.
$150M plus option for additional $22.5M
And he just did it again at MDCO
Agree. I have cash waiting to buy in to this (and APTO) if/when they drop the price