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Rjsteling, see my comments to Cleos for my thoughts on GE's adoption of a dual strategy of the tender and buying on the open market. GE is doing both and yes after 6 months it will be gradually buying towards the 90% goal but can't of course get there with Elliot holding 10%.
I'm not sure if your downside risk conclusion is valid. When the GE demand is ended, and the stock goes into zombie trading mode, why would it not go back to where it was pre tender, 50% less, what the market valued arcam at, especially if q3 is weak and there is no catalyst on the horizon.
What makes you think arcam would accept a stock deal especially with a new company with limited resources and unknown trading worth when it has as an alternative the cash, trading history and clout from one of the largest companies in the world. Remember the directors and managers are going to stay with the company so they are looking out for their financial security as will as ours, maybe even more, despite their fiduciary duty. Therefore, I suspect it would not accept a stock deal with the new company, assuming they offered such. I would not unless the stock deal was huge which a new company could not offer.
Your comments on Axis trading post tender says it all. I would not want to risk deceased pps and zombie trading, tying up money for no reason. I'll place my bet on tendering, seeing how the stock trades, possibly buying back in depending on how it trades and watching carefully so if the ADS starts appreciating I might rebuy before it reaches 34/35, my sell point for my other shares. This way I hedge my bets both ways and avoid the zombie depreciation dangers.
On q3, see my comments to Charlie. I bet Rene will be even more closed mouth than usual given the deal pending.
Hope you are right and think you are which is why i'm a big holder and have been for years. Not much of a technical analyst, but since many believe in it, it does move the pps. Now lets see what the company has to say on its impending CC, but todays dilution can be seen as good and bad. Gave them money needed but diluted the float. I would like to see the stock back to at least 3 solidly and preferably 4, about where it was at the reverse split.
If these numbers are accurate, how will the market perceive them. Given that I suspect di santo and APC will be showing significant revenue growth, especially APC, that sounds like a poor printer sales prediction. We shall see. What I'm more interested in is potential vision and guidance, such as how many new customers can they expect, such as PW and RR, and Alcoa, etc. who are involved with testing and experimenting with arcam printers. I will be listening to that cc with great interest. But sadly, per usual, Rene does not provide much guidance and vision which has been frustrating as I'm vey bullish on the company.
Cleos, good point, but they are actually following both. During period one, they accepted tendered shares and bought on the open market with limit price of their tender offer, 285.
Now they will continue to do both. During the tender period keep what is not withdrawn, add more including mine, and buy on the open market with laggard filing documentation. They will get whatever percentage they get, suspect over 50%, they can then accept that percentage and operate the company. Then after 6 months they can buy on the open market gradually upping their ownership percentage. We won't know about that till a filing requirement is finally invoked and that will be after the fact. GE can outwait the market so long as it has effective operational control which it will have with even 40% and being the main customer which is an inherent risk for arcam as well. Canon got an additional roughly 10% during the extended period and that would give GE its 50%.
Thank you Rjsteling, cogent and valid points. Personally, I think the Alcoa situation is just coincidence as the new company, being newly born, may not have the resources or stability to make a major buy. But is interesting. Additionally, why would GE time its extension to weaken its chances??
Thanks for your thoughts on axis and I also fear the zombie trading situation. Unfortunately you did not address the question of whether holding post tender, that 6% or so, was a good financial move.
The reason I"m tendering my remaining shares is that I don't want to get stuck with shares at a lower pps after the buying support of the tender Is removed. Threw the dice in period one because I expected an extension. See no reason to risk it again as its clear no new bid is coming. If after the tender, the pps goes down or even just stays down, and there is not enough trading support, would be stuck with lower pps for a while. Rather tender at 33+, the tender price, and then buy back at a lower price and see how it trades. Given the weak pps, even with the buying support of GE, I don't forsee much short term appreciation as the buying support and excitement of the tender ends, especially if q3 is weak.
Like with the axis deal, I expect gE to pick up more shares, including mine. Float will be better than with Axis, percentage wise, but how about number of shares. Remember, Arcam was a low float, low trade, stock to begin with and now 50% or more less. And don't forget its not only the stock GE and Elliot hold, but also us die hards. If someone does not tender, they certainly will not sell their shares for below the tender price absent compelling factors. Additionally, almost all buyers since the deal was announced, are under water so not anxious to sell. The company will also be basically part of GE so its results will be diluted and it will take a lot of positive news to move the pps
We shall see but again thanks for the thoughtful response. We both have long term faith in Arcam, I'm just not willing to sit on depreciated stock and would rather take the money and buy back lower. Remember, already sold 2/3 of my stock at a time premium of 34/35. Can buy that stock back at 32ish.
One of us will be right. Does the pps go down post tender short term (i'm right) or does it go up and I'm wrong. But if it shows support, and I buy back before 34/35, I'm still ahead. We shall see.
Sorry, you did not answer any of my questions. 1. is tendering an ADS the same as a regular Stockholm share??
2. What percentage do the ADSs represent of the total ownership
3. If pps remains weak, why not tender and buy back since its likely the stock will continue to trade, albeit with low volume.
4. Using axis as an example was it worth holding the shares after the tender or have they been zombie like so that appreciation was not realized even with good co. performance
,
If you want to respond, at least answer the questions asked.
GE did not establish what arcam is worth. Only what arcam may be worth to it with its special needs and uses. The market establishes what arcam is worth to the investor and that may be higher or lower. Given the pps, its about the same and without the GE buying, probably a lot less, maybe 50% less short term, its valuation pre tender. The example of non public companies is misplaced.
QUESTION
As I understand it one ADS share equals one Stockholm share? Does anyone know what percentage the ADS shares represent of the arcam ownership. I.e. if all ADS shares wee tendered, how much ownership would that represent.
Second, except for those die hards that think the price is too low, that want about 600 SEK as some have shouted, as long as the ADS stays below the tender price which is over 33, is there any reason they won't tender. Many of us, including me, did not tender the 1st time hoping a higher bid would be made and knowing that tenders are usually extended. Many of us, including me, will not risk it a second time and will tender So assuming most/all of the ADS shares are tendered this time, what percentage ownership will that give GE??
Third, given the absence of a new deal, the weak pps and the risk that the pps will go back to pretender prices, 50% Lower, is there any reason to suspect most of the Stockholm shares would not be tendered.
This is especially true since it is unlikely that GE will get its 90% and the stock will continue to trade allowing us to buy back at the expected lower post tender price.
Fourth: If GE does get a large chunk of the shares and accepts the shares, and Elliot retains its 10%+, reducing the float to zombie level, will the remaining holders be able to get any significant appreciation within a reasonable time. With axis and Canon, a good example, after the tender did shareholders such as M. Twenton make any money or has it been dead money with no profit beyond the initial and the money could have been used elsewhere??. I am curious as this experience might pertain here as well and determine whether tendering is best.
This question is for M Twenton or any one that knows how the post tender stock has traded and whether holding was worth the risk.
Would be happy to know the answers to the above since in the absence of a new bid, and the weak pps action, I plan to tender even though I"m bullish on the company long term. Will take the risk of buying back to avoid getting stuck with stock at a lower price, like with holding what I have and not selling at 34/35 which I did with some.
Thanks for any cogent answers which do not involve generic hypothesis or info not applicable to this tender
Already noted in response to a question that tenders could be withdrawn during the extension. But without a new offer, and weak pps, if they did not withdraw before why would they now?? In fact, more likely that they won't as its clear the market considers this a fair price.
As far as withdrawing, it is my understanding that just like offering, all one needs do is contact their broker and give withdrawal instructions. Stock then moves from the tendered category back to the regular account. If you own the stock personally it can be more complicated but think most own though brokers.
You are right, they should contact their brokers immediately as most have different cutoff dates, usually 2 to 3 days before the official date.
As a personal note, it OK with me if you just refer to the deal as the offer without all the official legalese but that's me.
When can we expect the official documentation to finally show the 40.4% and 10% that we all know is the reality??? Myself, I'm glad that we now know.
More speculation Trader?, must say I do not agree with your reasoning.
3q may/may not be bad, q2 sure was and a lot lower than my expectations. But some of the sales could have moved into q3. The lack of announced sales, as we have learned, does not equate to a bad quarter necessarily. Additionally, I don't think the tender made a dent in what competitors/customers were going to do. If anything, may have spurred more orders to take advantage of an independent arcam.
In the short term, and I mean that literally, why would you expect any bulk orders. 3d Manufacturing is just beginning. Ge is in the front and it isn't ready to start manufacturing in bulk yet as evidenced by the fact that most of its bulk order will not be delivered till next year. Yet so many are shouting that GE will order so much more immediately. Why would they order more when not taking immediate delivery on what is already ordered.
Moreover, correct me if i'm wrong but most of the other aerospace players are just experimenting and testing out EBM part manufacturing. RR, PW, and a bunch of others have tested EBM, but I don't know of any parts they plan to produce with EBM in mass production. There will be, but we are not there yet.
In fact, correct me if i'm wrong but the only part announced to be EBM printed are the blades with Avieo. First a manufacture must experiment with EBM to see if it will effectively and efficiently produce a part, then it must experiment with the best way to do so, then it must get FAA approval, then it must design and plan on how it will manufacture and then decide to manufacture the part and buy machines. That takes a lot of time and I think so far only the blades are at that point and even they are not being mass produced yet. So any bulk orders from others are a ways away and that may be why Arcam is ready to sell itself. Does not have the money and time to wait out the demand and establish the capacity necessary to satisfy demand when it comes. Only speculation but seems more reasonable than constantly stating that the orders are going to happen soon. Depending too much on one company is a danger as well.
The anticipated quarter has nothing to do with the extension. Almost every tender/share buy etc is extended, that is just usual MO
Absent a surprise, a bigger deal is off the table. I just wish the pps would get back to 34/35. I hope the pps gets up to at least high 33 so I can sell on the open market rather than go through the tender hassle.
LEDUDE, any info on the SLM tender?. You seem to be the only one who has documented any info on the tender deal. I am almost as interested in the SLM part as I am with arcam since IMHO GE wants both to guide its 3d manufacturing. One can enhance the other and GE will be inclined to buy Arcam more if it gets SLM as well.
Thank you. You/ace get the brass ring for binging news of the tender to us first, especially you with the documentation. Surprised it was not more widely disseminated. Not one news article so far in the media.
Nope, zzz, I disagree. I can speak for myself. I held some shares for a higher bid and price as thought the competitors would want to outbid GE or at least that was a possibility which became more unlikely as time passed and pps weakened.
I am not going to throw the dice again. I will wait for a while to see if some action happens but as the expiration nears, I WILL tender as don't want to risk a pps deterioration, potential fall of 50% to pre tender price short term or zombie trading situation. IF it still trades, can always buy back in after I see how the stock will trade with ge's position or if it walks away.
Bet there are a lot like me. Will be very surprised if ge doesn't at least get 50%.
Today made my point. Vindication is sweet.
As is now confirmed, the official filings did not reflect how far GE was towards its ownership goals like so many of you kept saying. The official filings reflect GE owning 15.9% and Elliot, what, 8%. But we now know that GE has control of 40.4% and Elliot allegedly has 10%. So much for your beloved filings. I also note so many now suspect 'secret" deals when before those were impossible. LOL
No I don't need to wait for the official filings which are laggard indicators from bureaucrats. Word from the horse's mouth, GE, is a better indicator.
On the tender extension, guess there was wiggle room as the announcement came the 2nd day, not 1st, after expiration. But glad it happened. Now lets get the pps up, but its clear generic legal noise was not telling us how far GE was towards its goal.
Its also clear now that GE will accept less than 90% and will not raise its price. Since its obvious it will not get 90%, they would not have extended if they needed this amount. With only 40.4%, its likely that with an extension they might not get much more so I postulate that they will be happy with 50% as I predicted. Guess all those that kept saying the price would be increased held back some as I am surpised GE did not get 50% with the weak pps, but obviously close enough and expect it will get the additional 10% at least.
Of course, many reasons:
1. Get the money faster
2. Guaranteed to get the money as GE can walk if doesn't get the 90% and accept the stock. Many of use got better pps
3. Saves the hassle of going though the process of tendering
4. Cheaper. Some Brokers charge more for tendering shares than on the open market.
5. Thought secret and unofficial deals wee not allowed. But as we saw, the official 15.9% was not the actual 40.4% as I speculated. Proven as I said all along, we did not know how far towards is goal GE was.
Need I go on.
M. Twenton so many points to analyze.
1. Thought you said no "secret" deals existed.
2. See you now concede its "deadlock like" and not a "deadlock." But do you really think the Cannon situation is a deadlock and do you think GE will give in to extortion. Operational control is sufficient.
3. Your example is flawed. Ge may have purchased some shares on the open market at 286 or higher but that was a one time deal. If they now go back and offer more, within 6 months, they will have to offer that higher price to ALL, even on those shares they already got. Even the fund that gave into Elliot waited 6 months and GE is a lot stronger than they.
4. Given its war chest, it might just make nuisance payments but their reputation is for hard ball
5. Like with Cannon, operational control and ownership, having the ability to steer the company as it wishes, is beneficial in and of itself. Heck, they might also like the idea of making some profit on appreciating stock as well as operational results.
6 Secret Deals are OK when you want them but not when others speculate on them?????
7. Given the weak pps and no competing bid, and that the pps is circa the tender price do you really think GE will compete against themselves and raise the bid??
Tam, I get the point. But as a customer, would you offer more if you can get the item from another at the same price. Heck, you can get baby arcam at less than the tender price. The key points being no new bid and pps weak.
I speculate that GE got 50% because of the lack of a new bid, the weak pps and the danger of the pps going back to the original pps, 50% lower. Now it is much more questionable whether GE will accept 50%, remember its their choice, rather than the 90% contingent amount. I think they will for reasons I've stated but that is speculation. But given that its almost certain that they won't get to 90%, if they don't extend that means they are happy with what they got or they plan to walk.
Will be a fascinating cc this week.
Ah, I was right, extension announcement was supposed to happen by open next business day. Thanks for the belated confirmation, wasn't sure I had read that correctly. Now in the absence of that announcement, does that mean no extension or is wiggle room in that provision?? If no extension that means GE is happy with what they got or will walk away. Important decision for those of us still holding some shares and are underwater the tender price.
Since I see the cc is going on as scheduled, should be a interesting cc to say the least.
Totally right, they can, but do you believe they will as the pps has gone down to the tender price, no competing offer has come forth and GE has been tendered what ever number they have and may accept them especially if the number is over 50%. But are you now speculating which you criticized me for doing?. You do like doing what you attack others for doing such as beating the (horse0 issue to death and now speculating. My prediction is no higher bid, GE gets circa 50%, if more accepts and extends if less may or may not walk depending on its actual strategic goal. We shall see. Our points are clear and now you suggest a higher bid. ha.
Haven't you realized by now that there is wiggle room in those regs. From a timing standpoint and from a content standpoint. I thought I had read in the offer that an extension was required, if applicable, by open of market the next business day. Either I misread or there is wiggle room there as well.
I admit to a strong curosity to see just how many shares GE got over the 15.9 the filing shows, the Elliot 10%, what percentage ownership GE will have which we don't know and whether GE will extend the offer and accept the shares tendered. The one thing is certain is that all the speculation here of a higher offer has been false at least so far. I do not like waiting
Then you should know I responded to that quote on the arcam board and incorporate it by reference herein. Why repeat.
Didn't you understand, that was my speculative conclusion. The thesis of my post.
Thanks for the kind words.
We shall see if GE decides that the Sigma product is beneficial enough to buy it. I mean the whole company like its buying the 3d OEMs. I can see a situation when GE gets arcam and SLM, that it buys Sigma to put into the printers per my speculation.
I've been having a battle with the Arcam board. They postulate that per the regulatory filings they know how far GE is towards its ownership goal. I say they don't. So far the data supports my position and we shall see when the final numbers are announced. My speculation is GE won't get 90%, its contingent level, as Elliot owns 10%, but will get circa 50% which I think it will accept as 50% gives it operational control which is all it needs.
Whether it will focus these 3d OEMs as profit companies where they will sell all printers to all comers to make money or if GE views the buys strategically and will emphasize its own needs and desires. And because the money stays in house, even though the price may be the same, it is financially advantageous. It can emphasize designs and perks that suit it best. That is why it bought these companies IMHO, to insure that it will have EBM and laser printers to best suit its needs.
Best to you as will silversmith. I've made major commitments to both Arcam and Sigma as the synergies are clear if the Sigma product does what we think it does. Only reason I've put the caveat in is all the noise i'm hearing so far is continued beta testing and no one has yet sung the praise of the product. How ever, the recent buys of the product are a good sign.
SPECULATION
The conclusion is total speculation, the variables are not.
1. ge has pledged to make 3d printing a large part of its aerospace and medical sectors as well as its other manufacturing divisions.
2. The parts manufactured have strict quality demands and the quality is overseen by the FAA, FDA and other regulatory agencies which require specific quality control and compliance information.
3. Sigma has development contacts with ge and has been in partnership with ge during the beta testing period for the sigma print rite product.
4. GE is buying the leading EBM and one of the leading laser metal printing companies which we should see confimation of today or soon as the tender expired Friday..
5. When GE has control of Arcam and SLM it will have control of the manufacturing of the ebm and laser printers it will be using in the manufacturing of its various component parts.
6. Once GE has control of these companies, and given that it will be using the printers to manufacture parts on a high production basis, it will help to have quality control and specification data on a flow basis to satisfy the over seers.
7. The sigma product, if it works as claimed, will be able to obtain this data on a faster and more efficient basis than other current quality control sources which require after production time and effort to obtain the data.
8. GE MIGHT DECIDE IT IS MOST EFFICIENT TO UTILIZE PRINT RITE TO OBTAIN THIS DATA AND WILL INCORPORATE PRINT RITE INTO ALL THE LASER AND EBM PRINTERS IT MANUFACTURES FOR ITS BENEFIT AND FOR THE BENEFIT OF OTHER BUYERS OF THE PRINTERS. oR IF THEY ARE COMPETITORS MAYBE JUST FOR THEIR BENEFIT.
Rank speculation but the logic is clear.
Thanks for the info Charlie, especially the red line quote. Wonder where it came from, a GE machine every 3 days till 2020, have not head that before. Since its apparently from arcam, wonder if it applies to ebm or both ebm and laser and the numbers of EBM. Per Avio, it does not plan on even taking delivery of its 10 printers this year so when is this demand starting??? May be the timing catalyst.
Have you heard when an announcement on the tender might be coming. Am I right that ge must announce an extension by market open???? hope they extend in the absence of any alternative.
We have data. We now know that GE has effective control, if they accept, of more than the 15.9% shown in the filings. That is a fact and proves my point. We don't know how far above the 15.9% GE is but its at least 23%.
Do you actually believe no shares have been tendered to GE this month?. I know for a fact that some have been. All GE needs is roughly another 25% to have been tendered to reach 50%, the 25 that you admit and another 25%. Is it so outlandish, given the weak pps and no new bid to think that an additional 25% of the stock may have been tendered and that GE will accept??. That is simply common sense. Wish I knew, but that is my point we don't and the filing doesn't tell us. That is all I've said for weeks and now this weekend 4 times in response posts. Most don't want to get stuck with the pps going back to the original price, roughly 50% lower per the offer announcement which stated the tender price was a 50% premium. My point has been made and will be even clearer if it turns out that Ge has control of much more than the 23% we know about and accepts the shares. Which is all i've said, we don't know and now you and ace confirm that. Yet we keep discussing it, you must like the issue.
It is also my understanding that ge must announce by market open whether it will extend the tender. At that point we should learn whether they accept as it will close if they get 90%, they will walk away if they get vey few shares and they may or may not if they get a middle ground, maybe 50%. I would accept, extend to get more, but take the 50%, but that is me, not GE. It is discretionary between say 40 to 905, may even take less but doubt it. They already have their blockage 10%.
One other certainly I have. Assuming they announce the status Monday, on Monday it will be a lot more than the 20% you suggest. Bet ya.
We know they did not/can not announce the amount of tendered shares as they are revocable till the end and not theirs till they accept them. If they don't get 90%, they don't have to accept any. But shares bought on the open market are theirs immediately. Likewise, if an agreement is contingent, they could not announce it as it might not be executed and the contingencies such as a higher bid won't be known till the end so obviously GE couldn't announce it. But we shall see on Monday. You proved my point that we don't know how far GE is towards its goal since the last filing did not reflect the 8% additional we know about. Monday we will see how many we did not know about which will confirm my point beyond what you have.
Tam, I disagree and Ace has proven me right.
3 posts on the subject. Why not relax till Monday and see just how far off the filings were. Further poof will be offered on Monday when we find out just how far off the 15.9% filings were and confirm that we did not know how far towards its goal GE was. Bet its at least 50%, lot higher than 15.9%.
The proof. As Ace posted the 15.9% ge ownership reflected in the latest ownership filing is different from the 8% commitment by the 2nd largest stockholder to tender to GE. That 8% is not reflected in the 15.9% as Ace stated. Therefore we know that GE has 23.9% of the stock, 15.9 plus 8%, towards its goal. Right?? This establishes that the filings do not show us how many shares GE will have towards its goal as I have stated. We know its over the 15.9 and most probably a lot higher when the tendered and contingent shares are added into the mix and these tendered stock will not be revoked in the absence of a higher bid and the weak pps. We won't know how far GE is towards its goal till an announcement is made on Monday when ge will accept/decline tendered shares. These shares have moved GE towards its goal but won't become official till GE accepts them. But knowing how many shares were tendered would have given us an idea of how well the deal was progressing. Case made
Tam, couple additional points. GE cannot announce contingent agreements till the end as they might not execute, i.e. when the period expires and ge accepts/rejects the tendered shares. Same with basic shares tendered. As many noted, we did not know whether a higher bid might come till the end.
likewise, there is a difference between shares bought by GE on the open market, the 15.9% where ownership transfers immediately and tendered/contingent shares which GE will not actually own till it accepts them/rejects them at the end. These are the shares that move GE towards its ownership level vs the market bought shares which directly convey ownership. Difference between an ownership change and working towards that ownership level.
Finally, no you don't know what that new total will be as you claim. Bet on Monday it will be a lot over 25% and we do not know how much. There is a strong basis for my speculation that we don't know how far GE is towards its goal and Ace documented that. Lets now wait till Monday, 3 posts is enough.
I have only addressed issues and disagreed with your points and documented why. There is no reason for this post to be deleted. Especially, given you personal comments which remain.
Reasoned Point and I appreciate it.
But you must look at the history. As I've noted, what I said originally was that we did not know how far GE had progressed towards its ownership goal. That started it all. An attempt to rebut that point, that we did know, was made my several posters, one by simply posting slews of generic regulatory noise. He said that he did know. So it all stated by my saying what you are now saying, we don't know, and others saying they did know. Kinda ironic isn't it.
Put simply, the official position is not always the actual position. Look at all those government official estimates. The possible contingent deals and revocable tendered shares take the matter out of the filings and lead us to not know which was my speculation in the 1st place. They tell us any actual sales, binding agreements after a LAG time, but not where the trends are and where GE is in the absence of a new agreement. Such as contingent deals and revocable tenders which became more likely to be final as the pps weakened and no competing bid arose. I noted that we did not know the trends and how much GE could expect without a new deal.
Heck, as far as I know, the filings still don't reflect the Elliot 10% or the Thursday deal as no one has posted such filings. So please don't keep saying that the filings show us where the positions are. Unless there have been additional filings, the only ones we know are GE at about 15% and Elliot at about 8. Bet that's not where we are now. Point made.
I don't slink away. I will point out if I am right and take a mea culpa if I am wrong like I did on the EU/competitors not complaining or making noise.
We will know probably by market open Monday since as I understand it Ge must decide whether to extend at that point. You know my predictions and speculation.
I am not pushing any point. Simply responding to misrepresentations and misquotes like this one where we essentially agree, We don't know, but differ on the significance of the filings as indications of where GE actually was and is in its ownership goals. Official and trending are different.
To me, anything that I hear about a day after its announced or more constitutes old news. The difference between announcing the agreement and executing the sale is moot, we knew it was happening.
Please don't misquote or misrepresent what I post. I never insisted that backroom deals were made. What I did say is that I suspect that GE discussed the deal with the Board and major stockholders, reached a price consensus and agreement that the players would be happy and tender shares unless a new higher offer was made. This contingent deal was of course revocable till the expiration to see if a higher bid was offered. This consensus would explain the shocking lack of noise. As such it would not require a filing as nothing material happened or would happen till the close. There is a difference between a binding agreement and a contingent agreement and that is the difference between a filing or not. In fact, I still haven't seen a filing on the Elliot 10% which we all know happened.
Thee is a body of case law in every jurisdiction that interprets and modifies statutory language. Did you not know that?.
The one accurate point you made is that we don't know how many shares have been tendered, which i've been saying for weeks.
How does anything In the announcement clearly show that I was wrong. The 8%ish from the second largest shareholder was announced in a PR, not a filing and I haven't seen an actual filing showing that GE is over 20% which I assume has happened given the 14% it had and the 8%ish it got on Thursday or Friday. That equals 22% if my math is on. I wish we know the amount of stock GE got
That ownership percentage is OLD news. GE got at least another what was it 8% Thursday from the 2nd largest holder selling to them. So its getting close to 25%, filings be damned. Now how many more shares? Was hoping fore some word as the tender is over but guess will have to wait.
I am amazed at how weak the ADRs are trading, not a good sign. And to all those that keep saying a higher offer is coming, I say I've got swamp land to sell.
Now the question is how many shares GE gets and whether GE extends. I hope so, need to get my remaining shares out at least 33 ish. Should have sold all at 34/35, all well can't be right all the time Since that mistake, have done petty good
To all those who contradicted my statement that we did not know how many shares GE had, I now ask them to tell us exactly how many shares GE was tendered. They said they knew. now is the time to get the number. Bet they don't have it and we will have to await an announcement from GE as I speculated.
To answer you questions, I doubt that GE went to them to inform them what they already knew. Do you honestly think that the 2nd largest owner of Arcam did not know that they are guaranteed the highest price for 6 months. Heck, even I knew that if you did not.
If you were aware of the tender offer, while we may hear something tomorrow as the deal closes at 11 am, we will know something by the opening of the Swedish market or at least opening of the US market as my reading of the terms suggest that an extension must be announced by the earliest of those two times on the 1st business day following expiration. Read in skimming so could have missed something but that was my impression.
I think the answer is no, but i'm not sure whether GE can accept the tendered shares, thus locking them in and also extend the offer in an attempt to get more of the remaining shares. Think an extension will also continue to allow revocation but i'm not sure on that point. The key will be how far above, or close to, the 50% mark GE is. If close or over, extension will happen and the bid continues. If less than 50%, unlikely, then it will be up to GE to decide its options.
Tom, what the market is saying is that the ultimate price will be the offering price and that ge will essentially get arcam or arcam will be left at its pre tender prices..
To educate you, the Elliot deal is not that important, it is a nuisance. Elliot's 10% will merely prevent GE from forcing the sale of all the stock in Arcam and let GE get 100%. Sooooooooooooo
Like with the Canon deal, if GE gets over 50%, cannon got over 80%, they will operate the company to its likely with a majority of the board and will be able to guide the company as it wishes. All Elliot will do is make noise about minority shareholder rights but so long as actions benefit the company GE will be complying with its obligations. GE is a major customer, Elliot is not.
The key is not what Eliot does with its 10%. Its whether GE gets a comfortable 50% and decides that is sufficient. Then hopefully it will extend the tender and allow remaining shareholders to tender so they will not be stuck with zombie shares, assuming GE gets a high percentage. Remember Arcam is already a low float company, especially the ADRs. With GE getting say 50% or even 30=40%, assuming it takes those shares and Elliot having 10% and some of us who don't plan on selling, the trading float will not be that large. We will see. I've gambled on retaining about 30% of my shares and may have made a mistake given the weak pps and lack of any noise whatsoever except from some posters here who shout for 600 now. LOL
Please don't overthink the Elliot nuisance, Cannon hasn't. Ge will sure be in a strong position with major laser and EBM ownership in the sector. Now at 11 am tomorrow hopefully we will get some news. The trading is already nil. And if GE does pay Elliot, it will be after 6 months and we won't get any of the sugar. LOL
You points are well taken. Unlikely they are buying for ge as above the tender price and why pay more if unnecessary. Elliot's mo is to just get 10%+, so unless the buying was to get to that 10%% in the past, I agree Elliot unlikely.
So are they buying for their own speculation or a 3d party. Now it could possibly be GE if they want to hedge their percentage a bit and willing to pay a little more. As far as the law is considered, it may well be valid. Note that at least so far as I know there has been no filing of Elliot getting to 10%. We know about it because of Bloomberg and not a filing. So much for all that regulatory language. As I noted, even if the laws are applicable (they are), there is a lag which prevents one from knowing where the ownership levels are at a particular moment. Which I've said before. But if there is another major player it will be interesting to see what percentage they get. All that GE needs, and the $64000 question is whether GE gets 50% or close to it. That is the threshold question and NO charlie no one knows at this moment how close GE might be to that goal. But if it knows how its playing out, and they are falling just short, they might be buying a little on the open market. Any thing is possible.
I wish the pps was not this weak.
Almost over, at least for the little guy. Many brokers have said their cutoff will be tomorrow at various times of the day. So for the little guys going though brokers, they must tender or revoke Tomorrow. The big boys and those holding directly may be able to wait till Friday at 11am, the GE cut off time.
By 11am Friday we may know something and at least by market open Monday GE must decide whether to extend or not as I understood the legalese. May also announce the amount of shares tendered and its inclination to accept.
My speculation is that GE will get at least 50%, accept the shares, thumb their nose at Elliot and operate the company. The question is whether to tender, what will happen to those that don't and how arcam will trade if 90% is not reached. I will be happy to see Eliot simply stuck with their 10%. Unless things change a lot, those that don't tender will suffer a lack of appreciation for a while and maybe have a stock that zombie trades like Axis. We shall see but its almost over. I guarantee that a sweetened offer will not come for over 6 months like the example where Elliot did get its premium.
SURPISE SURPISE
First, thank you for the translation now and in the past. This tech novice has not mastered that skill nor the tools that exist.
Now on the merits. These last posts on Elliot getting 10% and its MO is exactly as I and others postulated except I do disagree with M. Twenton that it is a deadlock or what ever term he used. As I stated, then and now, it is a canon win and Elliot loss with it left to whining about its minority rights in an attempt to extort a premium which is the only reason it bought shares when the deal was announced The GE deal will play out the same assuming it gets the 50%+ I expect.
As an aside, in the other example mentioned, with the risk fund, note that the capitulation to Elliot extortion was after 6 months so all the other shareholders lost out. There is the risk many of you deny. VINDICATIION so far is sweet. Now lets see how many posts are made denying that I've been posting this scenario for weeks.
Moreover, it has been me that has noted that despite what posters have said there is risk. I have indicated, as in the Canon example, GE may well be satisfied with less than 90%. That it might be happy with between 50 to 90% as that would give it effective operational control. That is what happened in the Canon example. GE will not succumb to the blackmail and will accept its ownership interest and not pay off Elliot and while Elliot would make a lot of noise to try to extort a premium, GE will simply operate the company in their best interests, Elliot be damned. I agree with that strategy.
The risk as I've said, and some have denied, is that the shares not tendered will be left in the hands of owners, the pps will go down as the trading float will be minimal and remaining stock holders will loose the premium of 34/35 they could have had. Per the posts, there is nil trading in axis and that might happen with Arcam I've posted this question numerous times.
Out of curiosity, what is the source of this information. Your beloved regulatory filings or a PR??
Hippu, one reason for the big boy's silence may be that they are happy with the deal and will be tendering in the absence of a higher offer and the pps weakness. In my experience, and I've been in a lot of mergers, if the big boys are unhappy with the price and want it higher, they make a lot of noise. If they are happy and plan to accept, silence reigns. Which is happening in this case.
I thank M Twenton for posting about the Cannon example awhile back, that's where I first learned of the Elliot MO. Pure hedge fund extortion. But I also note last two weekends, he suggested a Monday surprise and silence still reigns. I am surprised at the quiet from all sources and the only explanation I have is that acceptance reigns. The EU announced its acceptance to my shock. We shall See. Hopefully, on Friday even if the deal is extended, they will acknowledge how many shares tendered.
Risteling, why conclude the big boys aren't selling?
As I see it, one of two scenarios apply:
1. You are right, the big boys will not sell in hopes of a better price and deprive GE of its ownership goal. GE will then decide its options
2. .The big boys are basically happy with the price and will tender at the last moment like most of us but are holding back in case a better offer comes into play in which case they will not tender or revoke what they have placed while they await the bidding war. GE will decide if they accept. We will know which scenario is valid when the tender amounts are announced which should happen even if the offer is extended If unhappy, would have expected complaints by now
Given the absence of a counter offer and the weak pps, I think the second option is likely but we will see.
You may be right that GE was manipulating its orders. But this is made somewhat unlikely by the fact that GE is not taking delivery on even what it has ordered,, at least in part, till 2017. Doesn't suggest an immediate need
Why should GE raise its bid when the major shareholders are not complaining and the market suggests its fair. I will know if I made the right decision if I get 35+ (right) or less (wrong.)
Nobahamas, Cleos, Aef, to answer questions and give my 2 cents.
What did I do??? Hedged my bets. sold 3/4 at the beginning and with stop losses at 35 and 34, most at 35+ Looks like I should have sold all. That advice from the shareholder association applies only to papa arcam which is above the tender price, barely. Does not apply to baby arcam, the ADRs which are under water. Still trying to decide what to do with my remainder shares but expect the offer to be extended and have 6 months post offer to protect self with the same highest price. But tendering is cleaner. So debating.
Hope you bullish guys are right but i'm not so certain. The existing bulk order from GE does not contemplate delivery till 2017. So why should there be 50 buys and 50 reserve orders within 4 months or one month. There may be no bulk orders for a while depending on GE's time plans unless they were playing games. But its delay on the existing 10 is not a good sign nor is the weak pps and the lack of protest..
Yes GE will be happy with less than 90%. I think 50 will be acceptable and maybe even less so long as it thinks it will have operational control and priority. I think 50%ish will be tendered, higher than the specific 20=35% you cite. The price is just too attractive considering where it was and the lack of a competing bid and the fact that no one else besides GE appears to be making a big commitment to EBM at this point. 20% gain in 4 months or one month. NOPE, without a catalyst and I don't see one. hope it does, but doubt it.
I understand its 6 months but can be wrong. Then GE can make a new offer, maybe just to a few majors to get a higher owner level. But if it gets 50%, likely with the weak pps, and possible without a filing, from tendered shares accepted by GE at expiration, GE may be happy with just the 50% and the rest be damned, left to he flows of the market which is weak now.
Typical post, admits doesn't read but still concludes.
Issues were changing terms and accepting less than 90% as you will recall. Since you were scrolling, why not check post 4502, dated 9/13. Without reading, how do you know they were on point??
Since you seem to want to make such an issue and dwell on this and the 600 where you misrepresented, I discussed changing terms and accepting less than 90% on 9/13, in post 4502, before all of those cited posts and it was clearly spelled out and hinted at in the offer as well. Cannot get before that.
I also bet, even in the absence of filings, gE will get more than 14%. So you don't know where GE is with respect to ownership level at the end.
Lets accurately quote and represent. And now that we are days away, pps is not going towards 600, its going towards 285 and silence reigns. The cutoff for a lot of brokers is WED 10/12 but bet GE extends on Friday. Hope we at least get the number of shares tendered and again bet its more than 14%. LOL But keep on focusing on your chafe. I'll stick to the wheat: Not the filings but how many shares are tendered, how many GE accepts, what their ownership level is, and if less than 90% what is the remaining float and how will arcam trade.
Looks like I made a big mistake by not selling all above 35 and was wrong in my expecting a counterbid and a bidding war or flack from the EU and competitors. That is my mea culpa so far, where is yours??
M. Twenton, been though a lot of deals. I offer the other side of the speculation. I thought that there would be objections from the EU, major shareholders and competitors, I was wrong, at least to date.
The silence could well suggest that consensus was reached and the stockholders are content with the price and are tendering. We don't know as despite what some say tenders are not reportable as they are revokable as are contingent agreements. So a valid speculation is that contentment is present, there will be no higher offer and GE will receive the bulk of the shares. The market seems to be agreeing as generally if there is an expectation of a higher bid or discontentment with the price the pps goes up on the speculation. Here, the opposite happens as the pps is weakening. That suggests the consensus is that there will not be a counterbid or higher offering pic. Right?? Wishful speculation is moot.
Put simply, the indications are the lack of a counter bid, the lack of complaints with the price and the weak pps.
what is ongoing is deciding on whether to finally tender or not and how many shares will that give GE. Many brokers are cutting off the tender on 10/13, including Scott, and GE will get what it gets, which I suspect will be over 14% even without filings. In this short time, I do not suspect any alternative. Hope i'm wrong as don't relish losing 2 dollars per share, down from 35ish, on my remaining shares.