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Re: TRIL
Why is this being articulated by Laden and not management? If the MTD is "exactly (as) expected" this should have been telegraphed from management before the 50% haircut.
Thanks, this is what I thought.
Re: CLB
Dew did you happen to catch the context of this quote from the conference call?
Re: XOG
Normally my interest is focused on companies within the midland, Delaware, or stack basins but I will keep an eye on this stock because of the association with Yorktown energy partners.
Biomaven,
Have you seen a connection between triptans and seizures?
Re: MNTA competitors
Re: Abuse deterrent opioids
As a general conversation, I do not believe abuse deterrent formulations(ADF) are attractive from an economic standpoint. It seems prescribing habits are rarely based on ADF, with the obvious exception of suboxone and other CIII naloxone containing agents. I would like to be corrected on this point, but frankly so long as opioids are widely prescribed, ADF products are just a drop in the bucket of rampant legal addiction.
As a pharmacist agreed. Its a mater of habit changing, not name preference, which at this point is almost always influenced by insurance companies.
Re: EGRX
The share buyback seems to be consistent with Hudson Capital joining the board. Not often a small cap is this fiscally responsible.
P.S. In response to your post on Peter's board, why do you question if a meaningful amount of shares will be repurchased? Unless you are implying that the share price will continue to rise.
Re: MNTA 20mg market share
Can you elaborate? Zarxio has about 25% market share currently. This might be the market until biosimilars gain wide acceptance.
Re: 40mg competition
Who are the other competitors? And how advanced are the programs?
P.S. Why did MNTA's humira go into Ph3 trial and not base approval on their analytical work?
Most of that information was based on the 1Q16 confrence call transcript.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3970683-momenta-pharmaceuticals-mnta-ceo-craig-wheeler-q1-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
But I also gathered info from various posts so it likely contains some 2Q16 information.
Back of the envelope MNTA calculations..
I am thinking out loud as I type this so I am not sure how attractive the outcome will be, that being said bear with me.
MNTA earned $15 million from 20mg glatopa 1Q16. Glatopa has approximately 35% market share. (MNTA and Sandoz split profit 50/50)
1Q16 Total revenues was $20 million and net loss was $24 million (expenses totaled $44 million)
Y/E cash will be approximately $250 million.
Generic 40mg will launch at risk 1Q17.
OK, foundation covered. Currently 40mg copaxone has 75% market share, and we know Glatopa has 35% of the current 20mg market. Modeling the future 40mg market in a similar way would equate to 45 million per quarter to MNTA. Total 20+40 copaxone revenue would = 60million. This is assuming no growth past 35% market share.
If other revenue remains at $5 million and expenses remained at $45 million net profit would be $20 million per quarter, or $80 million per year.
At a current MC of $800 million and a year end EV of $550 million, free cash flow yield would be (80/550) 15%(!).
The key questions are: Growth potential beyond 35% market share? And how long will Glatopa be the only generic in town? I think the second question is key.
Re: ABT
For what it's worth: Merril has 2017 / -18 sales growth of approximately 10%, and 2017 / -18 free cash flow yield of approximately 5-6%.
I'd rather the valuation was more attractive from an investment perspective .
My point isn't to knock business operations, Whole foods seems to be a well run company.
"The stock is also down roughly 15% in the past year, hurt by disappointing same-store sales. However Summers argues that the bad news is reflected in the stock, which yields 1.6%, leaving plenty of room for upside once sales rebound. “Comparable-store sales are poised to improve (less negative) as we begin to lap easier comparisons.” "
I may be too stingy but I don't see the stock reflecting "the bad news". Why is this true, because the price has remained depressed? In a period of 3-5% growth, a free cash flow yield of 1-2% does not seem attractive.
Why Whole Foods Stock Should Keep Bearing Fruit (Barrons)
I originally bought ENTA at $17 watched it breach $50 and recently sold in the $20's for 3 reasons.
1. As discussed the V-Pak numbers since Zepatier entered the market have been very bad.
2. I have no faith in ABBV's management team.
3. IMO ENTA is too interested in being a pre-clinical research lab and seems to lack interest in capital return to shareholders.
Though I am not sure if next-gen will be superior to GILD's products I fully understand next-gen will be at least comparable. If I have glossed over important details of next-gen ABT superiority please let me know.
In a scenario where a patents are found to be valid after a generic version is launched, what is the standard protocol? Is the generic forced off the market until the appropriate time?
There is a quote from either Buffet speaking on the dot com bubble that relates..
I am late to the EGRX party, but if I am thinking about this correctly EGRX 2015 annual expense was approximately 50 million. At cumulative royalty of $700 million, EGRX could have free cash flow upwards of $150 million a year.
Dew do you agree with the estimates?
"$600 million to $750 million: potential annual royalties over next three years after settlement of a recent patent case "
Respectfully, can you explain why this makes ZIOP more appealing to partners? I still don't see the logic.
Re: XON/ZIOP
Adam Feurstein's take
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13626031/1/ziopharm-co-dependency-spirals-down-in-amended-intrexon-deal.html
XON / ZIOP Amend Collaboration
Excellent! Thank you
OT: Twitter question
Is there a way to search a user for specific hashtags? For example search Dew's tweets for "$egrx".
I happen to agree with Oakes first paragraph.
NWBO promotional tweet
Came across a promoted tweet for Northwest Bio asking @billgates "gentlemen please help $NWBO cross finish line P3 GMB DCVAX part of cure". Thats a clear buy signal in my book.
What sort of impact will this have on banks? How much fx trading and reserves do the banks typically have?
RE: ZIOP
Due to it's 50/50 split with XON, ZIOP is essentially valued as a 1.8 billion dollar company. I can not figure out what part of the company is worth 1.8 billion dollars.
I spoke too generally when I said "everyone". I should have said the article seems to under-estimate the risk of a negative CVOT.
I completely disagree about the premise that the Aramco IPO has a correlation with the future of oil. In my opinion, the leaders of Saudi only objective is to maintain as much capital as possible. The more public money spent (bonds + IPO), the less private fortune that has to be burnt.
Re: FGEN
Thanks Maurice! The notes are great. (now I can put a moniker to a twitter handle)
Was any context given around the "big boys have shown up comment"?
I am starting to lose my interest in ENTA for the first time in years for 2 reasons.
1. I have no faith in anything ABBY touches at this point. The management team has not instilled any confidence in me since the PCYC buyout.
2. If the rational for owning ENTA is cash flow generation I think there may be better alternatives. The management seems to be very interested in building a pipeline, and to date has had little success (other than the obvious ABBV partnership). As jbog points out, if ENTA barely makes a profit, what is the point of owning them?
Also twitter chatter today that Linzess has been linked to fatal reactions.
OT Re Hamptons:
I think the hamptons boon is played out. I have no data to support this but I would suspect housing sales in the high end areas of the catskills to be at a three year high
Re: Big Pharma Earnings
The reports on CELG have a continuing theme that management is talking down earnings and possibly 2017 guidance.
Re: MON
Notably, this is the first presentation I have seen that does not promote doubling of EPS at YE2019.