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when airedale talks, congress listens...
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=512&ncid=738&e=1&u=/ap/20041007/ap_o...
sentiment,
imho, fwiw, our next significant pause will happen later this month/early nov. as we head into a 10wk cycle low. we should see ndx 1500+ before that happens, though...
6-7 day cycle low is probably in. long at ndx 1463(break of vtl across highs since mon). stop just below 1452...
1478 is also weekly r1. confluence:)
imo, that's the formula to use, koke...
i also use it for weekly and monthly s/r points.
as i've said before, hurst cyclical analysis is the driver of my trading. it's very accurate in putting me on the right side of market. but a guy name john person has some great ideas on how to use pivots s/r in multiple time frames and fibs to help anticipate entry and exit points. a confluence of cyclical targets, pivot points and fibonacci rt's and targets can really help you be proactive...
here's an article:
http://partners.futuresource.com/fastbreak/2003/100103.htm
here's his book:
http://shop.store.yahoo.com/stockcharts/cogutotetrta.html
ndx 1436-1438 looks feasible as a possible 6-7 day cycle low tomorrow or thursday because:
1. it's the area of previous resistance that has now become support(9/13-9/21)
2. it's the 38.2 fib rt from the move 9/28-10/4 and 50 fib rt from 9/30-10/4 move
3. it's the target measure of the projected breakdown of yesterday and today's consolidation pattern
a full and half span 6-7 day cycle lma cross is about to happen. it suggests a ndx 1473+-10 high, which we have hit. short term top may be in or a double top is possible. then we should see a retrace into 6-7 day low due tomorrow or thursday. no cyclical target on that yet, but strong fib and pivot support exists at 1446-1449, then 1435-1438. will look to get long out of this 6-7 day cycle low...
sentiment,
your conspiracy theory is very interesting. imo, the markets and cyclical analysis are easily explained.
at bottoms, smart money accumulates then momentum traders get long as the market moves up. then mom and pop comes in and holds the bag as smart money distributes. smart money will continue to sell loading up on short positions until a break. then momentum traders get short, mom and pop get short late and hold the bag as smart money begins to accumulate. and so on and so on and so on...
this phenomenom goes on in different time frames, from short term (3-3.5/6-7 day cycles) to long term (4-4.5/9/18/54 years)...
koke
if you have access to hurst's "profit magic...", there's an interesting chart comparing the dow and gnp on pg 150...
i would agree with airedale in the fact that fundamental analysis has no bearing on trading via hurst cyclical analysis. imo, fundamentals are also cyclical in nature and are immediately discounted...
you may be right, bliss. i liquidated too early. will be buying dips in the near term...
trading plan for early next week:
assuming last tues was a 5wk cycle low, a retrace into the 3-3.5 day low should come monday or tuesday. due to the bullish nature of the sum of larger cycles, the retrace may be very shallow (possibly only ndx 1440-1443, a test of 200 day sma and daily pivot respectively). however, i've got a feeling that may be too shallow and anticipate a move to 1427/1428 (weekly pivot and 33% retrace of 9/28-10/1 move).
therefore, will look to go long at 1428 with stop at 1415 (just below the th/f gap). target will be the upper estimation of the 5 wk cycle high, presently at 1475-1490...
thanx for the response, airedale!
if you use multiple settings for a specific cycle target, how do decide which to use as your target? do you average them?
i also recall you posting the results of a fpa/cca late spring/early summer and came to the conclusion that cycles were shortening. you listed the 5wk cycle as being 22-23 days, if i remember correctly. do you then adjust your settings to reflect the shortened cycle?
sorry if i'm being too inquisitive:)
airedale,
if i'm not delving into any proprietory information, i'd love to know what your fld settings are for the ndx. sometimes, i derive the exact same targets as you and sometimes i'm just a little off.
i use hourly charts for 3-3.5, 6-7, and 12-14 day cycles. (11, 22 and 44 half span offset midpoint respectively)...
daily charts for 5 and 10wk cycles (12 and 24)...
weekly charts for 20, 40 and 80wk (10, 20 and 40)...
airedale,
where are you at on the theory that if a cycle runs long, the next cycle will usually run shorter to accomodate the larger cycle. for example, i agree with you that the last 5wk cycle ran 31 days. do you subscribe to the theory that the next 5wk cycle has a high probability of running short (17-25 days, to accomodate the 48-56 day 10wk cycle)?
i didn't see anything about that phenomenon in "profit magic...", but read it somewhere in a cyber forum...
just liquidated long bought tuesday at ndx 1388 (vtl break across highs between 9/21 and 9/28.) looking to reinitiate a new long after a retrace early next week. will use 3-3.5 day full and half span lma's, daily/weekly pivots and fibs to triangulate a high probability target...
bring it...
i agree airedale. i believe the elevator moves up this week. the cot info that came in last week shows commercial hedgers getting real long and small traders getting real short. couple that with the incumbent administration looking for some juice 5 weeks out, a move to ndx 1475 makes sense in the near term . i wish i would have followed my own trading plan from last weekend and waited to get long ndx 1400-1404. i got caught up in the mon/tues pop and bought too high, too soon. looking to go long at either a break of the tl across high from last tues and 2 highs on friday or a close above both the 10 and 20 day ema. stop just below friday's low...
airedale/mr. cash,
what are your opinions on the possibility that this is a long 5wk cycle and a break of the tl across the high tues and 2 highs today would signify the 5 wk low is in? then we would move up to the 10wk target high around ndx 1475...
thanx airedale...
airedale and mr.cash-
if neither of you mark last wednesday as the ndx 5wk low (1412.54), how do you handle lma target calculations from yesterday's low (1415.31)? aren't the lma's distorted due to the 3 day delay from actual low to cycle low?
i love it when you 2 agree:)
added to yesterday's long at ndx 1422 with another at 1432 (at today's intraday breakout at 1:50pm). plan to ride it up to a 6-7 day or 12-14 day target high...
thanx mr. cash. i see it...
how did you arrive at the 10274 midpoint for that, mr. cash? extrapolation? i'm only seeing a 12-14 day target...
excellent point, airedale. dow's 12-14 day low target of 10,203+-16 is being hit now. may be a complex bottoming. will hold long position initiated at ndx 1422...
i wouldn't sweat it, mr. cash. some of the smart money didn't get a chance to get in this morning when the market ran away. their buddies are letting them hop on for the ride. this 30 min candlestick will end up being one sweetheart of hammer. we should go up from here:)
5 wk cycle low is definitely in. partial long at ndx 1422.56 (daily pivot). stop @ 1399. will add to long at a 30 min. bar close above ndx 1436...
mr. cash, any reason you're marking today as the 5wk low instead of last wednesday?
you could be right airedale. i just find it hard to believe that a 5wk cycle low would come without testing the 10 day ema (10 day ema now at ndx 1409). even back in 4/03, fresh off the 4-4.5 year low, the 10 day ema was tested on the 1st 5wk low. even in bubble mode, that 10 day ema has been been touched on the ndx. i know emas have nothing to with hurst cyclical analysis, but at least a testing of it is traditional on 5wk low.
in any case, i am prepared to go long on a breakout of the recent 5wk high at 1436 and will add to the position accordingly...
trading plan for monday:
monday is the 25th or 26th (variance due to labor day) day of the current 5wk cycle. the bottom of the current up channel (the straightened version of hurst’s constant width channel) runs ndx 1400-1405 for monday’s trading. even though it’s possible it could be broken between monday and thursday, it’s doubtful due to the status of the larger cycles (assuming 80wk cycle bottomed on 8/13). there is also strong weekly s2 and fib support from 1400-1404. therefore, will look to take an initial long position at 1404 with a stop at 1383. (just below a 38% rt of the 8/13-9/13 move). will look to add to long position on break of vtl across highs since 9/14, breakout above previous high at ndx 1436, valid moves past weekly and daily pivot support and resistance and/or 1st 3-3.5 day cycle low of new 5wk cycle.
if the 5 wk cycle low already came in last wednesday, will look to enter using the same strategies as above’s long position adds.
mr. cash,
i'm only deriving 6-7 day lows at this juncture. my 12-14 day settings haven't yielded a low target yet. just curious on what settings you are using. i'm using a 24,-12 half span offset ma and 48,-24 full span offset ma on the 98 min chart. i know as the father of the "fma", you like to tinker:) have you developed a new extrapolation methodology?
greetings and salutations, wavetrader! indeed, you have found a premiere outpost of hurst cycle analysis in cyber space. airedale and mr. cash are outstanding resources for analysis of the stock indexes.
i use hurst cyclical analysis as the primary driver in my trading. i'll couple cyclical targets with monthly, weekly and daily pivot numbers and fibonacci numbers to assist in entry and exit points...
peg,
it's jwg@usa.com
stopped out of long at ndx 1394 (in at 1376). got tagged a little on that one. i put too much value on the tl across the 8/13 to 8/31 lows. i really thought she'd waterfall a bit after it broke yesterday...
i agree with you, mr. cash. this 5wk cycle is tired. tomorrow is 18 days (19 if you count labor day) into the present 5wk cycle. time for some retrace.
fwiw, i'd love for you and airedale to be on the same page again sometime soon. i drink much less when you two are in agreement:)
liquidated long at ndx 1390 today (after weakness at 50 day sma and drop below daily r1 resistance). 5 wk vtl (lows 8/13 and 8/31) just broke on close (using 30 min. bar). short at 1376.77. no 5 wk cycle low target yet, but looking at 1340-1352 (61.8% and 50% rt of 8/13-9/2 move). stop at 1394 (just above today's high)
obviously the 3-3.5 day cycle low occurred friday (ndx 1370). got long today at daily pivot(1378). got a little nervous when she sailed to 1372.53 (had stop at friday's low). still looking for a retest of thursday's high 1402, but will watch 50 day sma for resistance. (5 wk cycle full and half span lma's will cross tomorrow and presently extrapolates a 1412+-11 target). because the low end of that target has already been hit, i'm cautiously bullish...
plan to liquidate long at 1400ish and will take in a small short position. will add to short on 30 min bar break of 5wk vtl across 8/13 and 8/31 low. that will also be the stop on my long if 1400ish is not seen short term...
the 3-3.5 day cycle low may have occurred friday. if not, it should tuesday.
will look to go long tuesday at ndx 1363 (lma extrapolation of 3-3.5 day cycle low is 1363+-4. daily s1 is 1363.39 and 38.2% rt of 8/13-9/2 move is 1363.82. strong confluence!)
target will be 1405/1410 (extrapolated lma target of the 6-7 day and 5wk cycle cycle highs, respectively.) however, will watch resistance at 50 day sma (1395) and previous high (1402) and take profits on weakness.
stop will be at 1348 (just below last 12-14 day low, daily s2, weekly s1 and 50%rt of 8/13-9/2 move)
if ndx immediately moves above 1380 (move above daily pivot-1378.44 and weekly pivot-1376 is very bullish), imo 3-3.5 day cycle low occurred friday and longs will be in order.
semis down grade spooked me out of today's trading plan. early action broke 3-3.5 day fma to the downside rendering low targets of ndx 1353-1366 (using fma and lma extrapolation). will hold off on a long until we start reaching those levels. will scalp an intraday breakout or pivot move if a set up presents itself...
i agree,mr. cash. although tuesday is possible.
i'm getting 5wk full and half span extrapolation yeilding a target of of 1408+-10, so a double top after the 3-3.5 day low may be it...