sentiment,
your conspiracy theory is very interesting. imo, the markets and cyclical analysis are easily explained.
at bottoms, smart money accumulates then momentum traders get long as the market moves up. then mom and pop comes in and holds the bag as smart money distributes. smart money will continue to sell loading up on short positions until a break. then momentum traders get short, mom and pop get short late and hold the bag as smart money begins to accumulate. and so on and so on and so on...
this phenomenom goes on in different time frames, from short term (3-3.5/6-7 day cycles) to long term (4-4.5/9/18/54 years)...