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Yes there is...
- the question was just not stated.
Good thing it's the billion dollar question that actually matters...
This article makes an interesting read for the solar buffs among us.
http://cleantechnica.com/2014/12/29/tariffs-smariffs-can-already-make-worlds-lowest-cost-solar-modules-u-s/
For those interested in the solar industry (with a notable US bias) I can recommend the guys book as a very interesting read. I don't agree with all his conclusions but he clearly has a strong business/investment sense of what makes the solar industry tick.
If you believe the guy has all his i's dotted & t's crossed then his company Siva could just be strong competition to Solar3D for the future of solar.
Agreed.
This is the only sensible conclusion re the Panasonic patent. IMO.
Also we know Panasonic were at some stage consulting to our cell development which is an additional reason to conclude JN and co. have tied down our IP. Done and dusted as far as I am concerned.
There are, however, other 3D solar cell designs out there that have the potential to be in competition with ours - maybe not from an IP perspective but certainly from a market/product point view. IMO these are way more interesting than a 20 year old Panasonic patent.
Santa Claus has brought me ....
Christmas Day in Australia.
Might as well take the dog for a walk.
Big Board.
I know we are all thinking NASDAQ is the target.
BUT is there anything to definitively rule out the NY Big Board ?
Probably true.
I have heard that quantum dot solar cells can reach > 60% efficiency in theory (I know that sounds unbelievable).
How long they will take to get close to that in a practical way - well lets just say no one is telling me...
Here's something a kangaroo jump away from my backyard...
https://cosmosmagazine.com/physical-sciences/how-buddhist-singing-bowls-inspired-solar-cell-design
http://www.opticsinfobase.org/oe/abstract.cfm?uri=oe-22-106-A1422
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So I think the Buddhist singing bowl design is a type of 3D solar cell.
The tech paper shows a potential way of getting above 30% efficiency - hopefully at a reasonable cost. Though, I think the concept is more theoretical than practical at the moment.
What the paper does demonstrate is one interpretation of getting the best of both "thick and thin solar technologies" - something I think JN alluded to somewhere recently.
Thoughts for today.
1. Biggest impact of low oil prices is probably cheaper gas for hauling around solar gear.
2. A logical argument can be constructed that we should get solar cell news this week. Reasonable to expect the news will be positive.
3. If we accept the "joining of the dots argument" (see previous posts) we can guess manufacturing will be somewhere in Asia. In order of likelihood (or maybe preference) I would put the most likely locations as:
a) Malaysia or Singapore
b) China
c) Korea or Taiwan
As always: we wait and we wonder!
For sure....
Actually, I think either Malaysia or Singapore are the places of choice for manufacturing.
This articles makes a good read for solar aficionados.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/12/business/energy-environment/solar-rises-in-malaysia-during-trade-wars-over-panels.html?_r=0
hehe
Thanks - that's a real compliment coming from an expert.
I also love your idea that "...won't be an existing solar cell manufacture".
Strongly suspect you have not let on all your reasoning leading to this conclusion either. Hey, neither have I....
AHhh OK,
well explained.
It's not "for sure", for sure but "wink, wink" for sure....
That would be my guess re Intel too ; chances are they will want to stick to what they know.
Thank you.
Most interesting.
Question re no 2 : how do we know "for sure" that the solar cell will not be made in USA ?
I think if it was then the Solar 3D cell would truly be in the "too good to be true" box.
That won't happen because 30% efficiency is above the practical limit for a single junction cell.
But - that still doesn't means JN and CO are not on to something big because the claims made by Solar 3D are pretty close to the "too good to be true" line. Which is why lots of us are hoping for good news re manufacturing soon.
Indeed; Trina will be the largest seller of solar PV this year making it an awesome partner.
Not sure JN mentioned an "incredible offer" though I do recall Singapore was mentioned as a possible partner location. Not sure Trina has factories in Singapore - does have an office.
Well SunPower could be our manufacturer;
but in this I know I am right: there is not really enough info to rule them in or out; same for a lot of other possibilities.
Hope we will find out soon.
All,
Be aware this is getting off topic.
Lets wait for the crunched numbers and then we can rationally critique what has been put forward.
hahahhaha - oh dear - sorry but that post is just hilarious on a few levels....
Still, I will patiently wait for and review the "valuation matrix" but it will be extremely doubtful I will act upon it in any way.
Actually, some recognizable names are probably better than others - but that's a complex discussion.
Curiously, my fave idea for a partner is Solexel - a solar company who just happens to be backed by SunPower.
Sorry - but it is not really that obvious at all...
The PR reflects that SUNWorks has been a SunPower dealer for years...
(Of course, SunPower would be a nice partner if that happened to happen.)
Does Solar3D have a retrofit contract to replace solar panels they already installed?
NO. several reasons for this:
- won't make commercial sense;
- not yet known whether our cell will go into the US market (you could assume eventually it will if successful but not necessarily first up)
Do they negotiate contracts with the options of installing the 200% claimed Solar3D solar panels?
NO. as above
Just retrofitting existing solar panel with the "NEW" 200% efficient Solar3D panel (if they are ever manufactured) would be in the Billions of dollars, does Solar3D have a plan.
Maybe some "retrofitting" will happen but in many cases this would be years in the future.
If Solar3D's plan is to just merge with other installers perhaps they can install the ones from Australian.
"Australian scientists said Monday they had made a breakthrough in increasing the efficiency of solar panels, which they hope could eventually lead to cheaper sources of renewable energy."
NO. "eventually" can be a long long way away...
Being an Aussie I can comment on this story; there was also a question earlier on the board.
My opinion:
- this is more a laboratory oddity than a commercially viable proposition
- no relevance to Solar3D.
RGSE is not a good idea...
Yes I tend to agree - not a good idea as a turnaround story.
Of course if there are useful assets that can be "stolen" for pennies on the dollar - well that could be a different matter.
Interesting speculation but I am going to politely disagree.
My thought's are:
- far too risky to take on RGSE at this stage of our development
- particularly at a valuation anywhere near the current RGSE market cap
- RGSE might be worth something as a Nasdaq listed shell should it become available; not sure if this sort of thing is doable in the US
ha ha - delightful post, bullish but thought provoking & definitely the sort of post I like to read on here!
Will have to review it again later and do some thinking.
I am not going to admit to loving SLTD but certainly the company is more to me than just a spec investment - (I have heaps of others).
Also if you are going to love an OTC company & have interests linked to solar energy - well Solar3d is a great pick.
Welcome to the board.
There is plenty to learn here.
Feel free to ask questions - even if they seem dumb.
One thing to learn is to avoid posting about other posters - just starts a bicker-fest that no one wants to read...
The topic is Solar 3D - play the ball; not the man.
NB - Not trying to pick on you; I know others here give in to this temptation.
But actually quite different...
Also there are quite a number of competitive ideas out there versus our own Solar 3D cell. In the bigger picture sense this is actually a good thing and in the closer to home sense this reminds us that we have a speculative investment with some hurdles to get past before our solar cells see the light of day (yes OK; crappy pun...).
To put a name to some of these idea; we have:
- quantum dots (as per QTMM)
- mufti-junction solar cells (great if they can be made cheaper)
- perovskite PV cells (e.g. http://www.gizmag.com/spray-on-perovskite-solar-cells/33383/)
To put this into perspective:
- probably not wise to bet your house banking on our solar cell being the winner
- there's not a lot of point worrying too much about competition; just know its out there & keep tabs on it if you are interested
And of course, the fact that makes us unique amongst solar start-ups is our ownership of installation companies.
Curious as to the reasons behind this ?
"I'd rather see Mr. Nelson focus on Cal/Nev/Arizona for now, and grow eastward organically in the space of few years."
Dude - you left off : News on a solar cell partner is due this quarter !!!!!!
I too am long SLTD.
Not worried - yet.
One article suggests Bloo are a CdTe company of which First Solar is about the only successful example. If this is true that means they have some hurdles to overcome such as the toxicity of CdTe.
However - they seem to have something good enough to keep shaking money out of New York.
I have been other 3D solar cell designs (besides ours) out there too. Interesting times!
as are some of their claims...... which is more interesting !
That articles leads to these guys:
http://www.bloosolar.com/index.php
More research needed but looks like are competition !!
- they claim third party validation (details not yet found)
- raising money for small-scale module production
- located not too far from SUNworks
hmmmm - so where can we put out money down on this one ??
Hey Dude,
You really should not be promoting other stocks in the SLTD forum - even though we both know RGSE is just so totally awesome.
No way to know. Depends on too many unknown - like whether a new factory is part of the deal or just a modification to an existing production line.
Best guess would be some time next year if things go well.
No way to know.
Hopefully we will get info like:
the licensing model & structure of the deal;
technical info on performance on the solar cell.
Agreed ac modules are quite interesting.
I'm still in 2 minds about whether micro-inverters can go the distance, that is last 10+ years without too many failures. Gets very hot on your roof and baking electronics is usually not that great an idea.
We are both agreed on QTMM, SLTD: patents, potential and positioned...
Bringing some new meat to the table:
I am gonna suggest a little research into Solexel - some great youtube videos if people are wanting to increase their knowledge of solar cells & manufacturing. http://www.solexel.com/
Very nice piece of work.
I think it it would be fair to add that the development of the solar cell remains speculative in nature in the absence of 3rd party validation. This could of course change fairly soon given JN's stated timelines.
Another way of spinning this is the solar cell has not yet been fully de-risked from an investment perspective. Offsetting this risk is two acquisitions and future expansion of the installer base that make SLTD an overall very attractive company.
obviously that is a matter of opinion....