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$5 after partnership announcement $10.
Welcome we are glad to have you. Hopefully you will have a good profit soon!!!
Kyle,
Other then the fact that they will evaluate everything and if the data is good enough I am sure they will apply for breakthrough status.
Unfortunately, I have no special insight in that area....
Shadow, I really hate to disagree with you......
1. VGX is the core component on INO valuation. Almost all of the assets people buy INO for came from VGX. CEO, Leader of Sci Board David Weiner just to name a few personnel. SynCon was a VGX asset as was most of the technology that was then put into INO current generation of Electroporation. It is easier to say what VGX got from the takeover.
a. Public company, name Inovio
b. Electorporation patent portfolio that was almost as good as VGX had already.
c. Ino device manufacturing ability as VGX had little and contracted.
There were other benefits to VGX, but they were few and small.
Animal health does indeed have much to do with getting products to market and approval. More in the future then today. GHRH was developed by Advisys, currently VGX Animal Health. This product is being brought forward by INO for humans.
The animal health division represents a short path to profitability. Once it completes the next round of financing, VGX AH is as short as 3 months from having a product on the market. This will most likely take a year or two, but 3 months has a good chance. This product will prob have about 5 to 10 million in revenue year one, and doubling or tripling year two. Long story short, INO will realize substantial profit from this division much faster than from itself. 15 million a year revenue to INO would completely cover its current operations. This is a HUGE deal and of substantial value to the share holders. VGX AH has two other drugs ready for testing and could have those to market in 3 years as well. The only barrier is money for trials, but animal trials are much cheaper. Each drug prob needs 1 to 3 million each to get to market.
2. Manufacturing: I think I have to get your definition of mass production. VGX has the ability to manufacture for large Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials. I do not feel that is the same as for public sale, but I mentioned it mostly as a catalyst for knowledge and the ability to supply drugs for themselves in trial and the future. The company derives much or its very small revenue from this factory. It is built to cGMP FDA standards. Like I said this is allowing INO to learn how to manufacture. I did not bill it as a major profit maker yet. The Woodlands plant is the most advanced DNA manufacturing plant in the world. Many companies like the Cystic Fibrosis Society go to that plant for help when they cannot get their drug made anywhere else. Merk licenses technology from this plant as well. So implying that this was not worth the dilution to acquire is just wrong. INO has already realized more than its cost, and will continue to realize value into the far future.
3. The fact that NBS currently has less shares then INO while not having the same assets as INO does not bother me. Indeed, they prob have less shares than Apple, but they are not worth as much.
So they have larger manufacturing, but no animal health and no large Asian division. In my opinion, without knowing the value of said manufacturing, that puts INO at a large advantage. I do not know much about NBS, so maybe they want to be a manufacturer. My question is did they like INO acquire their manufacturing for pennies on the dollar like INO did. If so and they are able to use it for generation revenue and it has paid for itself, it was a wise move. But if they built such a plant to make drugs that are not approved yet, I question their choice. Perhaps they should just be a manufacturer. I did notice that with their full scale manufacturing plant they only generated 13 million in change in the whole company. This makes me believe they are misusing that assett.
Inovio currently has no problem attracting institutions and funds, and they never have. The primary way to attract these investors is by staying in business and having enough cash to accomplish your goals, and showing them you have valid novel technology that will be a success or already is. Inovio has managed to do that, and if they have to dilute another 45 million shares over the next 3 years to accomplish that I feel it will not matter enough to worry about it.
Just to clear some things up, NBS had a delisting notice from NASDAQ, and I am sure this is the reason for the reverse split, NOT trying to attract institutions. I can tell you that most funds and institutions run from companies that reverse split as if they had the plague.
Since Inovio is wisely NOT on the NASDAQ, and indeed the exchange they are on is designed for small cap companies, delisting based only on share price is unlikely.
4. All stock compensation is truly a "Loss" as are wages for the employees. I really feel we as share holders receive an excellent value in what we pay in compensation for our staff, so I really do not consider this a loss. That being said I believe you are correct in what you say, and of course, it will continue to climb.
5. I cannot think of any other way a small cap biotech company is valued except by their patents. Well there are a few other ways, like licenses, manufacturing, technical know how and such, but patents are the primary way biotech companies are valued. They represent the technology that investors buy these companies for. I just have to completely disagree with your point. The later the stage of development, the more valuable a drug is. This is standard operation procedure in the industry. Drugs are commonly partnered up by stage 2, though it is less common than stage 3.
6. Let us accept for a minute that mgmt intends to issue 300 million more shares and go everything alone. First I do not believe INO is capable of selling 300 million shares, or even 150 million more which they were able to issue BEFORE being approved to issue up to 600 million. We saw the stock drop form .68 to about .52 with 15 million shares issued back in March. If the company were to issue more shares every few months, you would see future drops be even larger. If they company did this twice a year in 15 million share blocks it would take 10 years to issue 300 million shares. Long before the company could issue even 100 million more investor confidence would be lost and the companies ability to issue more shares would be degraded with each offering. This is much of what happened at NBS. Eventually they issued so much it caused a price collapse and then a delisting notice. This could have been avoided by being successful or minding their capital more effectively. Fore example not having a full scale plant. A more likely scenario is the company issuing about 15 million a year as it has been. In that case it would take over 20 years to issue 300 million. So what was the point of the 600 million permission? It would have been far wiser not to mention it at all and continue to issue.
Logic should tell us that the 600 million is a poison pill, there simply is NO other reasonable use for the shares.
Also it is not fair to compare INO/VGX to NBS as NBS is a poorly managed company. Much of their current problems were easily avoidable. I looked at the insider buying and selling over the past two years and I was not impressed. Compare this to INO where their CEO has never sold a public share. He continues to accumulate the stock as do most of the insiders. Inovio/VGX has had many failures, but has effectively managed its way out of them.
There was a time when VGX was going to build a full scale plant from the ground up, but they were doing that with free land and tax concessions. Eventually management pulled the plug on it due to the expenses involved. So I feel Joseph has been there and avoided that. I may support INO buying NBS's manufacturing at a very good price after they go bankrupt though.
Finally the fact that Joseph has been working on a major pharma partnership for over a year I believe proves my part.
Thanks for the provocative post....
LOL I agree. I think the mention of Merk in the SA article caused a large number of people to see it. I saw it was sent to 322,000 or so.
Also, the last time we saw a run up like this, the peer review followed. Like all companies, INO surly has leaks. If not INO, the other company involved has them (like the med journal in the peer review case). I wonder if we will see partnership news soon???
That is why I bought 75k at 1.40 last Friday. I just feel it could be any day. Of course it could be in fall as well. Any way, I had intended to buy a few hundred thousand more just to ride until the partnership which I believe is a few months away at the longest, any day at the shortest.
This run up has me confused as to weather to jump in for more or wait for a pull back. If we have a pull back tomorrow I will be buying.....
Lol. Well ss, just to tell you I have been all in many times in positions. I started investing heavily in 2001, i took 180,000 to over 35 million by 2003-4. I did this by super concentrating in xm at 1, (2002 I think) then selling at 10 and super concentrating in siri. Along the way I had some smaller successes.
That success is what lead to me looking into private start up companies in 2002 and to inovio (after passing on google). I was almost investor 1 in skype, i had even gotten the cashiers check drawn.
Any how, I have never suggested others do what I do, as I was highly informed and they were not. That is my only point to make. I think u r awesome and am glad you are in ino and wish I had been where you are in my 20s.
Good call! But the fact that pphm has a high share count as well shows that Ino is not unreasonable. I am guessing that is what you mean?
Also does pphm have an animal health or large foreign division? For 1 to 2 hundred million dollar company purposes, large would be say over 20 employees....
Thanks for the correction Leo. I appreciate it. Most of the sourcing I have heard on that have been non company, so I really did not listen to them.
I think they are considering many factors in that statement, mostly the partnership. I know when I was discussing cash burn without the partnership, I was told Q1 2014 in Feb.
That is just my guess, perhaps some other factors are on the board that I do not know about like grants that have not been officially announced yet.
Hugh that was a good point on considering motives. I welcome anyone considering mine.
I am disturbed by the rest of your post however. I am also sure that addressing the points that you mentioned will in no way PROVE what I say. I am also disturbed that you see me in such a distrustful manor. I am glad I have not been referred to in such a way by most people here.
Let us start with animal health which is the biggest deserved criticism from you. I have not disclosed publicly my holdings in that company. I think I did I had holdings though. Your numbers were high but very close and perhaps I should have mentioned that when asking if people were going to invest.
The few interested parties that I have spoken to personally have that information.
You mentioned I asked people to join me, I think that is not correct. I have encouraged people that were qualified to invest and get information from me. At this point I am not sure if I will invest in the next round as I am already quite invested now. I also have encouraged people to consider getting involved in the round that Joseph will be conducting. This is being conducted by the company, not me personally. You are correct that I will have some input in the matter, but I just want to spell that out.
Joseph has raised over 40 million dollars privately. I have complete faith in his ability to completely sell out the upcoming VGX Animal Health round. I do not think or believe he needs my help in this matter.
The reason I have mentioned it here is I have heard many here say they have over $100,000 invested in INO. Several have more than $300,000 invested. A few of these people have gotten in contact with me and I asked them why they put over $300,000 into a small company like INO by buying on the open market. Any how that conversation led to ways to invest in the private market. I then mentioned to them the upcoming private round for VGX Animal Health. They were happy to hear about it. I thought any large holder of INO stock would be very interested in it after those experiences, so I mentioned it here.
The ability to invest your money and also get warrants is a way to substantially increase your buying power and return. I feel if you already like the INO technology and management, VGX AH is a very attractive investment. Few people here have invested privately and it is good to give them a chance to do so. There is no such thing as having too much money in business, so it helps VGX AH as well.
I do not know the meaning of you saying a rising share price leads to me having trouble getting control of the assets. If you mean INO, the most I have ever personally owned of INO is 1.2 million shares. The idea that I can get control of INO assets is laughable. If you are referring to VGX Animal Health, share price of INO has no bearing on the worth of VGX Animal Health which stands at about 10 million, the same price it was when I invested. Taking your implication that I want the share price of INO to go lower, I added 75,000 last week at around 1.40. Also, if it goes lower I will gladly add more.
My agenda for posting on this board is simply I got tired of reading all of the BS on other boards. I use to avoid all of the boards while I could post on ST. Posting on INO publicly is rather new to me over all as I have been doing it for less than 5 months. My goal by posting publicly is to bring a little reality into much of the rumor and fantasy that is posted. The original topic I tried to correct is the crazy ChronTech rumor, the one that said INO owned a large part of the company and was going to buy them out. I tried posting rational postings correcting those rumors. Even so no one took me seriously. The crazies and truly honest misinformed people were just too loud. Finally after posting about such things in frustration, I put in a post my history with VGX/INO and people started taking me seriously. I eventually posted clips from an interview I did with J. Kim on the subject. Even so it is sometimes hard to cut through the rumor.
If anyone thinks I want a sustained lower price for INO shares, they should read my post about Flu Vaccine Profit Potential. I think that post shows an honest and realistic model for a successful INO flu vaccine.
Someone (maybe you?) emailed me on that as well. I have no idea if there is a public view document on that.
The easy answer is I would point you to Investor Relations and Bernie.
I can tell you I have personally checked about 100 patents related to INO. Most of these were done way back in 2002-2004 as due diligence. I do not even know what they were at this point.
Please share the results.
I also put in a call about it too, if I get results soon I will share them...
Inovio's high outstanding share count.
I have read a few posts that were talking about INO's high share count and I wanted to comment on and shine some light on that matter.
First, let me say that I agree that generally speaking having less shares available is a good thing.
Someone wrote a post over the weekend (sorry I do not remember who) comparing INO shares outstanding to several other biotech companies. To sum up the post INO had about 130 million outstanding shares, and the others had 50 to 80 million.
While the post was not simplistic saying that outstanding shares were all that mattered, other posts have implied it. Let me say this, what matters most is not how many shares are outstanding, but what you got for issuing those shares.
Why are there so many outstanding shares of INO and why? I do not have all the answers on that. Let me say my experience in this matter of INO starts from about 2008. That is when VGX took over INO. I know prior to that INO mgmt. got into some trouble and had to dilute more than was optimal. So J. Kim and company inherited INO with more shares outstanding then they would have liked.
From the VGX side, they too had a higher number of shares outstanding then similar companies their size. I can sum up the reasons for this.
In 2005 VGX decided to start an Asian division of the company for a number of reasons. This entailed about a 6 million dollar purchase of a publicly traded Korean company. This money raised was secured through printing more shares of VGX stock as the company did not have that kind of money to spend.
In 2006 VGX decided to purchase Advisys and animal health company for around 6 million in VGX stock. This lead to the creation of more shares of VGX to cover the transaction. The Advisys purchase also included the manufacturing plant in Texas, which was sold a few years later by itself to VGXI for about 6 million. This purchase was one of the early steps turning VGX into a DNA Vaccines company.
In 2008, VGX decided to purchase Inovio Biomedical. The deal of course lead to much more stock being issued to bring the companies shares in to compatible numbers so the two companies could be combined.
Of the other biotechnology companies I see compared to INO for the purposes of shares issued, I have never seen any of them that had their own manufacturing (I stipulate I have not looked up every company I have ever seen compared, but I have looked up many). I also have not seen them with animal health divisions. I have seen a few with major divisions in other countries, but those divisions are mostly 1 or 2 person offices.
I think anyone comparing INO share counts to other companies needs to consider this. Even though INO has a high share count they have gotten excellent value for issuing those shares. INO also has zero long term debt. Furthermore, the share price reflects that high share count. If we had 70 million shares outstanding, the share price would be much higher. Few investors realize that the company has manufacturing, animal health, and an Asian division which is another reason this company remains undervalued.
Inovio and Dilution, or not....
I hope this helps the debate about dilution here...
Many of you here are better read than I am on INO. I can say I am under the impression that INO is set until Q1 2014 on money. I have never heard the end of 2014 from anyone in the company. Some publications may have or maybe it was an exaggeration.
That being said, let me share my thought process with you as to when INO may be seeking any more funds.
First let me tell you that INO intends to make enough money from a partnership to make additional dilution not needed. I think that anyone that watches the company carefully knows this already. I also know from past experience with mgmt. they way they intended to go when we were VGX. This is not a 100% guarantee, but I can say it is much more likely than not.
Now if we did not get a good partnership, or none at all where does that leave INO? If the money is good through Q1 2014, that means the company wants to have the new funding in hand about 4 to 6 months in advance of that date. Some quick math tells you they want funding in hand, or at least the paperwork done by Sept-Nov 2013. They will start seeking a deal around August-Sept 2013.
I would say that the company is waiting on the results of the partnership to decide the next move. Once that is done, they will either be ok for a year or so or immediately start seeking a new deal. My guess is you would actually see dilution occur winter 2013 or early 2014 if it will be required at all.
The company can also sell some stock through the current ATM agreement. I hope they have. They could have raised 7 million or so since the stock broke $1. We will see if that happened in the earnings releases. Obviously, any significant money raised would put off these events by a few months.
I am sorry my post was not something you liked. Just from reading some of the other comments, I think my post appeared too negative. There was nothing untrue in it, and hopefully it will balance some of the crazy positive posts we have seen recently.
I do not fear the pharma industry killing Joseph. Many said the invention of antibiotics would hurt Drs and put them out of business. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Even if we could vaccinate against every disease, there would still be a lot of room for multiple vaccine makers. Indeed, even vaccines for the same purpose can be different in how well they work, weather they also treat a disease they prevent as well, and how they are administered. Just these factors could result in 5 or 6 different DNA vaccines for the same disease.
Acute medical treatment would still be needed, and there are many drugs that are developed for that industry.
Not to mention, we are at the beginning of stem cell medicine, and soon we will be starting nano medicine. I have no fear of the Pharma industry going under. I am sure they do not either.
Ok I am going to chime in here. First let me take a minute to highlight two posts that sum up most of the partnership and positive attitude about INO very well and I would advise everyone to read them carefully. post# 4159 by Ckbike and post# 4172 by ShadowEEngineer.
I have been disturbed in recent times about all of the positive views about INO expressed by people on this board. The sheer number and also the sheer number of posts by some of the people that act as if INO is a done deal and money in the bank is disturbing to me. I think I am the longest holder of INO on this board, with the most experience with this company, management here. I would NEVER post the way many of you have been. Go ahead check my old posts, I almost always put many cautions in my long posts. For good reasons, biotech is crazy risky. Also this board is not just our personal INO love space, it is for people to come and do some serious research. We do not do anyone a service by glossing over the risks. Most of the people on Ihub and the internet as a whole should not be invested in biotech with any substantial sum of money.
I was speaking with a CEO of a public company a while ago, he was more disturbed by the pumpers of his company on public messaged boards than he was with the bashers. He felt they did no service to his company as they did not properly educate the public about the risk of owning his stock.
I can tell you I have personal experience with management from a time back when the company was VGX. We had a product we were working on marketing and had two ways we could go about it. Long story short, it mirrors the partnership go it alone debate. None of us needs to be educated since Ckbike's post about not having a partner for marketing. We discussed the various ways of marketing at length and in detail. I had some small points to add, but was mostly schooled by these people in how the marketing and distribution needed to be achieved, regardless of which way we went about it. I can tell you that management is completely aware of how to accomplish this.
I think from J. Kim announcing he wants a partnership with major pharma we know how he intends to go, letting the partner handle the late trial costs and marketing and production issues and costs. This makes really good sense from the prospective of your first drug to market.
I can also tell you that J. Kim has set up INO to be able to carry out all of the steps independently. INO owns about 16% of VGXI which owns a manufacturing facility in The Woodlands Tx. Learning how to effectively manufacture is a more daunting process than hiring sales and detail staffing, which is more about having the proper capital to spend. Early, after acquiring this facility, J. Kim increased the reactor size form I think 300 liters to 500 liters. While these are still small compared full production size factories (which have reactor sizes of around 3000 liters) it has allowed INO to gain experience making drugs for other companies (and their own) clinical trials.
My guess is that INO will partner on most if not all of the drugs we currently see in its pipeline. I would expect that somewhere along the way INO will start manufacturing some of its own drugs. Much longer down the line we will see the company adding sales staff. How big the effort will be I think is in the air as Joseph seems to like making drugs more than managing a large staff.
As for the risk, INOs risk is shrinking with the data we keep receiving. Just proving that synthetic DNA vaccines can indeed work lowers the risk. Every proof that electroporation works in people lowers the risk. The last 4 months have seen the risk of this stock come WAY down. We saw INO prove that a consensus DNA flu vaccine could deliver just as an immune response as a specially formulated standard flu vaccine. The results from electroporation continue to impress. Securing funding helped the company to be funded through Q1 2014. This is all great news.
The risks still exist. We could discover that NONE of our drugs in trials actually work in humans. The company could fail to attract new funding.
One of the big risks I worry about that no one has addressed would the death of our CEO. This risk cannot be overstated. As with many founder/CEOs the company is very tied to him. Most of the early funding can be directly attributed to him. Even now, he is the principle person and one of the main reasons INO still attracts funding. This is a risk everyone should think of.
I do believe the INO team could survive and function without J. Kim, but the job of taking the company forward would be VERY tough.
ONCS ceo was the guy that ran INO in to the ground and allowed VGX to pick it up cheap. He just moved to a new company last week, and I believe ONCS went up on the news.
He is a smart and nice guy, but I have stayed clear of Oncs. I would consider it now, but I would have to sell INO to buy it.
He is jong joseph kim...
Are you a Jong as well?
He is in philly. They almost always release at 4 am. Part ofmthe reason is they like it after market close in korea. I have pushed for 9am est many times, but they never agreed.
Sorry pain, sure just email me tom_s507 at yahoo dot com.
James2013 gone?
Wow I hope so. He was making this board feel like yahoo, full of bs...
I hope all feel welcome to post here. But I do feel like we should all call people out on so many posts about stuff they cannot know and do not come true. I guess that is why moderators are here. Thanks to them for keeping us civil here.
I am sure that Joseph and the board are not interested in diluting themselves. I am sure if they got a huge placement offer at a very good number they would be stupid to pass it up. I can tell you they are much more interested in doing a partnership to shore up their finances.
I am sure you believe what you are saying and have shorted the stock, but any smart investor would be careful with a partnership agreement hovering out there in the near future. Good luck.
INO is not higher then it should be.
Truly right now this stock should be sitting at about $3. If this were a more traditional company it would be there or higher with these results. The truth is this technology is so cutting edge, few still understand it.
Any how, this stock has to fight to new levels. Tomorrow will really give is an idea if there is support at this level or not. We could also be going several months with only small news tidbits. Or we could have the partnership announced any day now....
If you are not long term enough, take some profit. If you want to add shares and do not mind a small gamble, do what stock savant did and sell at a high and add more back lower. In the end though, I think after the partnership announcement you will see this north of $2. We will see....
I am totally game should i set up a paypal??
It is an SEC definition actually. 1 million in total assets, and or over 200,000 in income. Also a very high investment knowledge and experience will qualify you.
With 300k in both companies that makes you a qualified investor. Why not take a big chunk like that and get involved in the private offering in VGX Animal Health? That way you get in early, and also get warrants for your investment.... Just a thought. Let me know if you are interested.
Well INO does have an asian division called VGXI trust me they are taking asia very seriously.
Punitt is a very smart guy and quite nice, but his management is totally different than Joseph's, and he seems to try to manage share price. Joseph in no way does. He simply tries the make the company compelling through real data and results.
Still Punitt is a VERY smart guy. I believe he will succeed.
I agree with you about the Cal location. But the people in the company already lived in that area for many years which is why it was chosen. It makes more sense when you understand that. They would risk losing much of their current talent and mgmt if they moved. That being said, I totally think they should move...
Yes they are manufactured in The Woodland TX facility. It is owned my VGXI now....
Oncs is run by the old Ino mgmt prior to vgx takeover. In my opinion they are not on the level with j. Kim. However, they are using the same technology as current inovio. The people are not stupid. They would be on my short list of qualified people. Just not as qualified as j kim.
It will be a private offering where management will travel around and give presentations to qualified investors. You will get warrants with your buy in too. When it happens I will tell everyone here. If you are a qualified investor I do have the presentation and can give it to you. It would require signing a non disclosure agreement though.
I am not a holder. If i had some spare money to invest i would buy some. It is ok. It should ride up in the halo of ino. I would buy ino instead though.
I am a holder in vgx animal health which will be raising private money this summer. I am more bullish on that then even ino for the next 5 year horizon.
I posted this a month or so ago on here and yahoo...
I just want everyone to take a minute to consider how much profit would be made with a successful flu vaccine from Inovio. According to a few quick yahoo searches, there are about 160 million flu vaccines every year in the US. I was too lazy to look up the rough profit for each dose, and I do not think such profit margin would apply to INO any how. Flu shots cost 15 to 30 dollars, with much of this cost going to the administration of the actual shot.
An Ino consensus vaccine would be able to command a much higher price, but would only increase the cost a small amount. A flu shot that costs $20 has about $12 to the shot administration fee for the nurse and or pharmacist. That leaves about $8 for the vaccine itself. Due to the many advantages of a dna consensus vaccine you could easily charge $20 for the vaccine alone, then adding in the $12 for administration arrive at a cost of $32. I will be more bold in this and say we could charge $50 for the vaccine alone, and have a total cost of $62. Heck a nice round number of $100 can easily be justified. But lets work with $50 for now.
The consensus vaccine can demand a premium due the working against all known strains and potentially working against any unknown strains as well. On top of that, the need of not getting a shot next year is very compelling to most. The question is how often you would need to vaccinate. From what I know you would be looking at 3 to 5 years at first, and perhaps much longer as data is evaluated. This too supports a premium price. When compared against $20 a year for a standard shot, you and your insurance company would save good money paying $50 for the Ino vaccine, and it is easy to understand how we could price a shot at $100, while still saving the US as a whole substantial money. This is about as win/win as a situation ever gets.
So lets thing profit. We are charging $38 for vaccine, the profit margin will be about $28 per dose (not after RND costs). So $28x160 million comes to about 4.4 billion. You can expect to keep that rate up for about 2 to 3 years in the US (provided INO is the only consensus vac on the market). World wide, vaccination rates will go up using the DNA based vaccines. A major reason for this is the simple matter of they can be stored at room temp. and need no refrigeration, which is a big problem in the 3rd world. Also the fact that this vaccine cannot make you sick and is only administered every few years also increases the demand.
The down side is after 3 years, you have vaccinated the bulk of the US population, and then you are just vaccinating babies and new arrivals to the US. However, by then, we have made over 12 billion dollars.
So we could charge similar prices for HIV, Hep. Gardasil costs $360 for a course, which is 3 shots over 6 months. The question is would the general population want HIV and Hep as much as flu once these vaccines are made. My guess is NO. At least not in the beginning. I think 10 years later they will be common to all. The question is will we still be in patent protection then, and the only game in town. The odds are NO. But we will make multi billions first. How much would the homosexual community pay for an HIV vaccine? My guess is more than $360.
These are top of the head numbers, and I can promise people can find justification for both higher and lower. If you are all really interested, I will get real manufacturing and cost data, but I do not think it will enlighten us much more at this time. I know I will be pushing for a higher price for the Vaccine in the first world than I used in this example. Less
In response to a $5 price takeover....
If ino were at $5 a share and a takeover offer happened I would expect that the offer would have to be at least 3x to really tempt the company. I can see real soul searching at 4 to 5 x.
Keep in mind if they have built to $5 they are already succeeding in their plan to grow. You also have a management team that does not want to sell. They want to stay right where they are and build the company.
Cramer does not discuss stocks under $3 so I would be very surprised if he did discuss it. That is the policy of CNBC and Cramer. I am not sure this data warrants an exception. I think it should as both the flu and HIV both show new paradigms and are totally disruptive technology.
I am as veteran as you can get so I will answer. That was the time period right after VGX took over INO and that price spike happened when the new merged company started trading.
The catalyst of VGX and the new CEO J. Kim brought that price up. Unfortunately, it was only a business driven price hike (the merger) and not results driven. I can tell you we were very surprised by that sudden drop though. We all thought the new entity would get a grace period. We underestimated how many old INO investors that were caught in prices from $5 to $40 would run for the door. It is hard to blame them though.
So this run up has been based on results and data, which is what real price increases are made of. Also the volume here has been picking up steadily for months. This indicates a very large growing interest in the company and what it does. This type of organic growth in share price and volume is exactly what you look for in a company going higher. We can see from todays action that part of the run up on HIV was already built in.
We may have a pull back soon too. My guess is we will consolidate, but I am not sure at what level. I am hoping for over 1.40, but perhaps 1.30 is more realistic.
We still have the partnership announcement to come which should be a major driver of the price. Hopefully, the negotiations are still going on as the movement in stock price on this data is very much in Inos favor.
I hope that helps you.
Yes he can. The boards ability to issue up to 600 million new shares that was approved at the latest stockholder meeting is a classic poison pill that I have no doubt was put in place for this very reason and the current series of events... I have not heard that from Joseph directly, but we have discussed poison pills and the reasons for them in the past.
I believe you would have to propose a price north of $5 to get Joseph and the board to take you seriously. I believe it would take a price north of $10 to make Joseph and company do real soul searching.
I know from past conversations back when VGX was private the amounts we thought would be reasonable for selling out. The company is much more advanced now and much larger which is why I think it would take $10 or more. Once you see Joseph owning about 13 million shares, and the idea of 130 million dollars would be tempting for anyone. Joseph has always said he intended to create the next Gilead, and never saw selling out as an end point for himself.
Good question. There are many factors, I am sure even formulas. But in my limited experience, the management and board start with the traded price and discount it enough to make it more worth while to buy from the company than other investors. There is debate and such.
Perhaps one of our mbas here can answer this better than I.
I am sorry if I confused anyone.
I meant HAVE, though had is technically correct. The plant on The Woodlands was bought by VGXI back in 2008 I think. Inovio owns 16% of VGXI now. But in practice, it is controlled by Ino. Time is reserved for use in making small batches for the company, even though most of the available capacity is taken up with contract manufacturing. It is a nice facility out there I have been a 3 or 4 times. I believe the current reactor size is 1.5 liters, up from 500 when it was purchased.
The time frame to create a vaccine is just the way Syncon works. Syncon can easily be licensed out for others to use to develop as well. The company was planning that back in 2006 after they developed it.I know Joseph always says everything is for sale or license for the right price. Only thing I know that Joseph has said multiple times he will not do is exclusive licensing. They could change their minds, but that is the general mind set he has had for many years.
I have no doubt they would like to have a corona virus vaccine, I do not know if they are working on it. Ino is still not a large company, and resources are limited. Joseph often says about HIV "We are the tallest midget in the room" I think that applies to DNA in that we are the biggest company in it, but we are still a small company...
The Middle Easy is a crazy place to do business. I am sure if a government said they wanted a vaccine asap, Joseph and company would work hard to make that happen if the business case was compelling.
Joseph NEVER forgets he is spending money of investors. He is very concerned if he makes a major move that the business case is justified.
Is the HIV Data priced in???
The HIV data will be peer reviewed. Depending on the peer review part of the report can go many different ways. The trial data can be good ( I am petty sure it is) but if the reviewers do not like the way the trial was conducted, that can bring a negative spin on the whole thing. If the data is good and the peers like the way the trial was constructed and run and agree with the conclusions, it will bring added credibility. This will bring more people into the stock. So, I think good data is prob half in the price right now, but good peer data is not even in most people's thought processes yet. If the review process is good it should bring in good pr and more eyes. I have no doubt that Joseph has set this up so that the extra peer review process makes the data more attractive to the FDA as well as investors. If we are VERY fortunate, we may get fast track consideration for the vaccine.
People here act like INO is a typical Biotech run typical people, it is not. Joseph Kim is one of the smartest people in the business, and is most likely THE smartest. Few CEOs invented their technology, or were deeply involved in the development of it. On top of the scientists that run companies, few indeed have a Wharton MBA. Joseph has all of these qualities and more. Not to mention his undergrad form MIT. Inovio unlike most early to mid stage companies had a manufacturing plant in The Wooddlands TX. They have been successfully manufacturing trial drugs for companies for over 5 years. This is far from the normal in small cap companies and only adds to the value more as people learn the story.