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Biopete
the shorts # is as of 15 oct... since, we've dropped quite a bit... as Ryman says, next one will be interesting.
we should be near bottom in low 4... now, i am not convinced we touch the gaps Ryman talks about. For no other reason than everyone is expecting it and many are putting limit buys there. and ATRS is one strange stock.
Technically, we need to close above mid $4's and need consolidation...
At some point, coupled w/ some material PR (someday will come), I think we move back up to $4.5's (not too difficult).. but nothing close to $5 Unless there is some real BIG earth shattering news come (BO is the only thing that comes to mind). QST, QSM, PFE undisclosed product, etc.. will prob not get us up to $5.
Ryman and few others were smart to sell at $5 +. Not likely we will see that for a while.
As you say though, some shorts covering will easily get this up 30-40 cents easy... that might be a time to sell some shares.
I am holding 200K shares still until end of year or early next year. Still think BO is a logical event, especially after talking to Jack...
glta
I am sure most of us wonder the same thing JR..
but ATRS management has been pretty consistent in that regard (not being out in the front that is).
I think perhaps they have "we let our execution do the talking" mentality when it comes to delivering shareholder value.
Optimistically, I am looking forward to the early NOV Q call to see what Paul can enlighten us with. I hope he does address lackluster share price amongst other developments and directions.
ACR conference (Sun - Tue) should help w/ some visibility.
I think we either hit Ryman's gaps This week or we stabilize here in the 4.20 support area pushing a bit higher into mid $4's before the Q call comes.
Still see high $4's and possibly $5 area by end of year...
I am giving my self 1 more quarter and looking to get out in Q1 2014, whatever the price is. I think I am putting my money into a bit more risky but rewarding start up venture funds, instead of stocks.
yup. many prob have.. or are near that....
surely this stock is behaving badly for no real reason....
too much disappointments for traders perhaps... they are leaving....
i think we won't see better action until Q call ... maybe the mgmt can deliver some confidence
brillian post..
and your point of posting is?? you want us to pat you on the back?
yes, we know about Jack's history of being involved in BO's... usually a couple of years on the job...
sooner or later ATRS will be bought out also... but can't be sure when... Scott Matusow thinks Nov/Dec. I think 2014 but would be more than OK at anytime and above $7..
YHB is once again a minefiled with unhappy posters... Can't blame them.. majority are in the loss or soon will be... as they jumped on the wagon only recently.
I don't subscribe to gap theory as much (sometimes it is a by product of shakeouts, etc), but this bear raid or whatever it is, will surely get rid of a lot of people, replacing w/ new people with higher cost basis than those old timers..
I say we hit $4 soon..
End the year at $5 give or take..only because we should have some material news hitting the wire soon between now and end of year..
why bother...
soon to be bought out anyway... :)
(no factual basis - other than a strong personal view, and no I am not one of Scott's junkie..)
glta
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/4655581-araja/2310722-antares-pharma-inc-fda-approval-with-a-hint-of-adam-f-manipulation
a link to a rebuttal to Adam's article...
ryman
i think we might fill the gap... 4.53?
sure looks to be walking it down to that level before end of day..
Adam F's critical article on commercialization of ATRS drug
.....
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12068019/1/antares-otrexup-approval-was-easy-selling-drug-will-be-hard.html
Adam Feurenstein (sp?) is twitting that people should be beware of ATRS propaganda... and that he is skeptical about doctors prescribing ATRS over existing drugs... he says there are no comparable data..
I don't know Adam well, but why is he such a skeptic? Any concerns re: his points?
well, are we going to end the day in the red?
geez....
congrats all..
as expected, we are up in the 10% range...
Ryman, let's see if we are right about conservative PPS..
Although you have to admit there are 12 mil shares short...so interim, we may see higher...
until profit taking later in the day and for few days to come..
well, whogo, i haven't experienced gov't ever being early for anything either....
with shutdown and other mess, no one there is going to be penalized in any way for being one day late - espec when that one day was a federal holiday...
so i do not think u can make the conclusion you r making here
seems to be different views on PDUFA decision when it falls on a holiday.
1. Day earlier than the actual date that falls on a holiday (11th Oct or today in our case)
2. Day after the actual date that falls on a holiday (15th Oct in our case)
From my experience or at least recollection, that it is #1 for the actual FDA decision itself, unless there was a prior notice to the applicant company of a delay or change of PDUFA date.
Anyone has any other insight? I couldn't find any 'rule' on this on the FDA site itself.
I guess it doesn't matter if it is today, Monday or Tue, but it would be nice to know
as we all know, street.com isn't the official source for anything... prone to human errors.
FDA site / tracking site still has 14 Oct.
further, I would think w/ any change, company would provide a PR? albeit this company is in comatose when it comes to PR or updating investment community.
It might be only 3 day difference, but the market never likes uncertainty and when it comes to FDA approvals, any delay isn't good for share price.
Anyway, whoever on YHB brought this up, it's interesting to refer to a Street.com news from 4-5 months ago.
I think we will get it on the 11th or 15th (decision that is)
glta
as expected.. no surprise here...
i wouldn't have expected otherwise...
1 week to go..
14th is Columbus day, so I expect something by 11th? at least that's what i think.
LGND got the FDA approval today, THE day of PDUFA date, so things look good for as non-delay goes
Not sure anyone really know that answer.
I do know certain "essential" elements of federal government will continue to work.. Military personnel will still get paid, etc.
FDA isn't one of the essential elements so w/ shutdown, they will not report to work.
Now, this shutdown has been in the work for a while, so one would think any organization would pre-plan for such an event, but we need to remind ourselves that this is the governement - logic/efficiency aren't a norm.
For example, I think (not totally sure) PFE has a 3 Oct (just around the corner) as a PDUFA date and I do not think there has been any announcement yet.
My view is that if shutdown lasts only a day or two (which is what I think... don't think they can afford to drag this on and on), our 14 Oct should not be affected much at all. I actually had expected an earlier approval than 14 Oct, before the shutdown, so if anything, I now expect a decision to come on or close to 14 Oct. If we get it (due to shutdown) a day or two later, so be it.
Will our PPS be affected by this shutdown? As we've been beaten down quite a bit, I don't think so. I think there will be buyers at $4 level area, so I do not expect much decline, but perhaps not much upside either, until shutdown is no longer an issue and the market gets the uncertainty (FDA decision ) out of the way, with an actcual FDA approval.
All in all, I think we will be fine.
Again, we just need that approval in OCT
Ryman,
I think if we gain FDA approval, it might happen earlier than 14 Oct.
Recent trading (likely a fund exit and not a sign of offering) should be ending soon (or have just ended today).
If you read YMB, just now some people are coming to grip that we may not see run up like a typical bio-tech company waiting for an ever important binary decision, because that's not what ATRS is. It's something I already knew and was a big reason why I jumped in w/ 225K shares over the course of last 8 months.
Focus is on FDA decision. All other things are noise. Fund exiting, for whatever the reason (funds re-balance all the time and has nothing to do w/ any 'insider' info), doesn't mean anything. W/ FDA approval, there will be dif set of funds with diff objectives who will join ATRS.
With 2+ weeks to go, only question remains, has ATRS management done all it can, cross the "t"s and dot the "i"s w/ FDA to satisfy the approval decision? knowing that drug itself has been approved and widely used for decades, and only the delivery method is in question?
I say Absolutely yes... so, it is matter of time, we will see better PPS... where it will be, I don't know... At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if only see high $4 at end of year... maybe lower, maybe higher.. all I know is that with approval, $4 range will be a new FLOOR for things to come in 2014..
Lastly, I have to admit in 15 years, ATRS has been the most frustrating stock I've held. and the Management's communication ability is sorely lacking, despite their awesome history of performance.
Hope all get good sleep and rest...
in about 10 days - give or take, we should get news.
why tomorrow am? it could be PM after hours?
I am expecting one sometime this week..
I think if this is what I think it is, then PPS drop won't last very long.. the MMs will bring this back up after panic/pissed off selling
interesting to see what happens
bio pete.. good points.
it has been my position that a buyout, sooner than later, makes sense to "this" management team in place.
but an offering, no matter what the reason, before FDA decision, would make no sense, as you indicated.
having said that, even if we do get an offering (say $4 level), I think there might be a brief dip before a strong run-up into the FDA decision...
all in all, offering now would defy logic a bit, but if we care about share price, it probably won't really hurt it beyond an hour or two after the news hit.
in any case, nothing to worry about..
we do have to worry about getting the FDA approval. that still is the only thing that matters at this point
$heff helped to rally in the past 10 min of trading from 3.98 to 4.03... and in after hours
He had ATRS earlier this year (bought at $4 range and sold at 4.4 range)... he is re-entering, but as always (almost), it's for a short term gain. He is likely to exit with high single digit to low double digit gain, if we get that.
good w/ me, if it helps to put a bottom for a while...
in any case, Michael just came out w/ another SA article it seems. Denying some rumors...other than a large seller/fund has been unloading ATRS.. (prob Vanguard)
Yea. I certainly do not know Paul intimately and what his leadership attributes are. I have worked for a number of public companies and have been a direct report to CEOs - many diff kinds and not all were very astute with investor communit or institutions. CFOs sometime filled in well.
Paul may just be one of those CEOs that do not embrace your points very well, but good at other things such as strategic vision, hiring best talent, and operational excellence. You would think his team could fill in some of Paul's shortcomings.
At the end, sooner or later, with execution, market will wake up to Atrs. Agree that it could be facilitated better.
I still hope that at least Paul will not let me/us down on fda approval in 3 weeks.
Actually their planned insider selling shows me how confident they are re: fda approval.... That at the end, the market will reward the company's execution...
Sometime i am bothered by a bit of arrogance by the mgmt team but they are surely confident of the fda approval, that much is certain...
3 weeks and we will know
i still think it's coincidental re: Dr Dave.
last week, we had above average volume with PPS dropping below 4.2 level briefly before trending 20 cent higher.. .then today dropping again below 4.2 level..
Today isn't unique.. today was 2nd time in 2 weeks..
I tend to believe it's the shorts churning/covering.
I don't buy the notion Dr Dave is selling his shares in open market immediately after his termination effective date. I just don't. I could be wrong surely, but that would be highly unusual, and it doesn't match as to what's been happening w/ ATRS past 2 weeks.. not just today
no such thing as "no risk" anything - long or short.
no one knows how this will move going into the Oct decision date or afterwards. Always a chance for CRL, but less than less as each day passes.
I think if we move it all,it would be early Oct - 1 week prior... upward that is. I don't think we will see a significant downward draft into the Fed date, other than what we are seeing last and this week.
I think of this way. Instead of worrying about if we will pop 50 cents and lose the gain shortly afterwards, once the approval is IN, even if we don't get a pop or get a pop but lose it, one thing for sure going forward - The BASE of $4 will be a floor for this stock going forward w/ the approval. Sure, some will get disgruntled cuz we didn't get a big pop or as you say, got a pop but lose it quickly... but undeniable fact will be that ATRS business model would be confirmed, sales force will crank up and will start to deliver real revenue in house in 2014, albeit incrementally only.
So, at this point, I worry less about what the PPS will be before or after approval... just that we NEED a FDA approval, which will put a solid floor into PPS and over time, we will go higher..
last week and this week's action...
I think shorts are churning... covering, shorting higher and then covering... 2 times now in the past several trading days.
we broke down 4.2 twice (last week and today).
curious if 4.2 holds up rest of week.
sooner or later, shorts will have finished their thing..
still, million dollar question and essence is do we attain FDA approval... nothing else matters right now... these volatility right before approval date is normal.
i think if we get through this and next week, a potential FDA delay lessens a great deal...
yea.. that would be fine by me..
$5 in Oct
$6's in Q1 2014
$7-$8 by Q3/Q4 in 2014 with real sales, and other product development and progress (but w/ any company, hiccups, delays, etc. could always happen).
This would be more realistic, and the shareholders should be more than pleased. I would be pleased (although I have now lowered my expectation for the nth time over the past 6 months).
double digit talks - I am not sure it will happen in 2014. It could, if unusual market forces, rumors of takeover, or actual takeover does indeed occur that might drive PPS in an extraordinary way, even if for a brief period of time.
I have GTC orders for all 200K shares just in case a unsustainable PPS spike would to occur in the coming weeks, but I just don't see it w/ this stock. This isn't a bio tech stock...
may not see much of a run up is my guess.. if anything, perhaps 1 to 2 weeks prior to the date.. but not a huge pop.
markep cap is already over 1/2 bil... i think the approval is already built in to a large degree...
big pop(s) might come after the approval, with release of some additional PR.. into late Q4 and Q1 next year..
I hope I am wrong, but may barely see a $5 with the approval... and will that last long? I doubt it.
I was only referring to short term price appreciation not long.
Been in stock market for 20 years but looking out 3 years from now for PPS isn't my main thing, as i don't subscribe to buy and hold strategy.. But that is just me and it is about my preference.
I know mr Matusow quite well yes, but i am not a fan or think of him in high regard- no more or less than any of you on any of these boards. I just happen to agree w. him on the acquisition more in near term than long term. We will see. I don't know or care about his long term price targets. He has never been good at that anyway. If anyone wants his advice, it would be short term and not 5 years down the road.
All i am saying is that the way this mgmt seems, it would be no shock to me if they did sell the company sooner than later - again i don't know if that is shortly after fda approval or way after few qtr of increasing revenue validation has taken place. And personally, due to my trading habits, i also hope for an earlier acquistion than a later one. Again we shall see. Or at least i am going to give some time to see what happens.
I plan to sell all shares at certain target point AND tim frame in increments - should hit my objectives this year i think - with fda approval, prob during first hour of pre-hour trading on that day perhaps - at least partial sell. Then rest of share selling on any material news.... Over 1-2 quarters.
All the best for those keeping some or most shares until i am few yrs older...with such a low cost basis, it must be exciting.
Absolutely agree.
I think too many people have had excessive pps expectation incl. Shadow, Tappy, and others. Reality is much of the FdA approval (potential) is mostly priced in already.
I too think we might hit $5 plus in pre hour trading on the day of approval, but not likely to sustain during regular hours....at end of year my expectation is low 5 at best...
With some material news on QST, QSM, Pfeizer collaboration, and international collaboration, we might see some pops but ultimately sustainable pop won't be until revenue confirmation and when we become profitable entity.
Scott Matusow still thinks we will get bought out soon after fda approval... Personally i would be all for it. I know most of you don't think the management will sell, but then again Atrs management - same ones doing monthly selling their shares - may do it for various reasons we the small investors don't understand or agree with.
I m beginning to think the chance for acquisition is good.. I hate agreeing w. Matusow but i actually do.
otrexup approval is just 3 + months away and not 4 1/2 months tappy... ( early to mid oct decision ).
agree w. most points...
if we rise too exponentially, we will undoubtedly come down just as fast without some real ' meat ' in terms of news... i, along with many others , hope there would be one or more of those this time around.
also, if by chance we rise to 6 $ range before approval, i actually think there will be sell on news type of trading action ( imo ) - which is fine, as it will just take some time to consolidate before 2014 rollout....and PPS starts to move higher.
in any case, i think next 30 days should be interesting..
personally i think we will re-test 52 week high...sooner than later. if it happens sooner, i will exit. if we do not get much of a run up towards Oct, then i shall keep my shares. not totally sure yet.
no buyout anytime soon, imo. just does not make sense. big pharmas have money...it is not about saving few millions in acquisition price, by buyng atrs early.
cheers from korea
sounds good to me.
for some reason, i didn't know about atrs until late last year and took few months to study before jumping in.
i have never been good at getting in at the lows or gettting out at the highs. i do my thing and am content w. that. only one i have been lucky is ACAD. when it was in the lowly 2s i got in...and out with 3X gain... maybe i should have stayed but i am alright.
as u say, atrs could become a strong double digit stock in time, i admit.
in any case, with all the irritation with inside sales aside, many posters here and yahoo, with some differences aside, agree that we have a relatively low risk, high return scenario...and that counts a lot.
looking to add to big positions in gale and cndo so looking to get out of atrs if and when we hit my tgt. if not i wait too. i have a lot of time as a retiree....
cheers
ryman,
think u r right on re: comments on CEO's ego and that he is doing a great job
having said that, i rather have a competent leader with an ego issue than many other alternatives.
ATRS isn't perfect - far from it, but nevertheless, very good company - imo.
agree with lowered price tgt as well. unlike all of these posters with vision of double digits, i am looking to exit entire position in the mid 5.
been holding for six months and i think another 3 months might do the trick.
great videos JR.
congrats.
i got a long way to go before my two kids reach that stage of their lives... i got married very late in my life...40's...and kids are still very young..
cheers
why wouldn't they ? (sell at highest PPS possible).
I know I would ..
I think Friday trading might be interesting... last day of the month/quarter... chart looks good... due for some news (other than patents) soon.
Looking forward the next 3 months. This should be the quarter we re-test 52 week high imo. FDA approval maybe 1st week or two of Oct who knows, a bit earlier than the date designated.
I might be doing "Kang-nam Style" dance if we ever get any material news out of this company... it's been a while
sold to cover tax implication. no big deal.
but atrs is indeed a strange stock... as $heff puts it, hard to predict PPS movement. not always sure where this stock is headed short term...although we know it will be much higher this time next year.
think we will see some news next week. just my hunch re: PFE
BSAV, good reading!
Of course. Why wouldn't institutions trade... just much less frequently. I guess one institution unloaded few hundred K or 4-5% of their holding. Not a worry item by itself, but a data point nevertheless.
For me, I am looking for what the institution holding will look like at end of this year, assuming we get our Oct approval and things are on track for main drug and misc items that everyone is speculating about. I surey hope by then, we will have majority of shares in their hand and not retail.
For now, I would like to get through warrant expiration and get "tight lipped" ATRS management to inform us more about PFE drug, TEVA filing and other relevant, material development that will put some real teeth behind the share price and forever say "so long" to sub $4 price level.
Still think we'll touch $5 level within next 30-45 days, and re-test 52 week high. Not sure if we can sustain all of its gain, though, w/o some help from ATRS management and PR w/ teeth.
I may be on the minority, but if we get reasonable run-up between now and Oct, I think there is a chance for a "sell-off" on the news after the approval (for a short while that is). Personal opinion only. It all depends how next 90 days develop, but it's a possibility for me.
Anyhow, that's still 5 months away. For next 60 days, I am very optimistic - technically speaking on the chart, presumeably imminent PRs on some key developments, key conference in June, warrant expiration related share action (if it is like last year, except there is only 1 million warrants expiring this time around).
All good for now, but I am being very careful not to get too complacent IF/When stock moves up w/ rapidity...