rph. don't think most people believed all that wild speculation made by that person, we all know who that is.

i don't pay attention to his posts anymore. I get more value out of Scott M despite some who don't like his ways. Scott's a good technician re: charts. BO theories, not so much.

there are few 'real' things w/ TEVA and we should get updates on them through official sources, sooner than later.

my thoughts are similar.

I see ATRS as a stock that got ahead of itself 18 months ago hitting high $5's... take that out, you have a stock that has been in a narrow range in the $4 range for a long time now...why? market is not convinced.

In 2014, I still see $4~$5 range until more visibility is seen w/ revenue and BEP/profitability level.

Once the potential becomes a "projected" reality (we won't need 50 or 100M in sales first before stock takes off... market is smart enough to know looking at 1 to 2 quarters results and forward projections, not to mention 360 degree feedback from industry experts, MDs, insurers, etc), this stock will become fun to watch.

coupled this w/ continuing progression of QST (which is the BIGGEST thing in ATRS portfolio), we should finally break out of $4-5 range and accelerate towards high single digit to $10 stock by end of year 2014.

Have seen many stocks trade in this kind of narrow range (in the mid single digit for 1-2 years) then once market sees enough data and is convinced, it will shoot up and never look back...

2012: $4
2013: $4-$5
2014 1HF: $5-$6

BO - changes everything... I see small chance for BO this year (unfortunately) but I see 90% chance by end of 2014 / Q1 2015. Once ATRS becomes accretive, there is just no way big pharma wouldn't want to absorb ATRS... no way...

quite frankly, i am surprised no one has bid on the company even if it wouldn't be accretive. Maybe Paul has quietly rejected past offers, who knows.. wouldn't surprise me

Otrexup reve expectation is pretty conservative.... set by Paul and the analysts alike.. i really like that..

i think this analyst is conservative but I do agree that year 1 (2014) we wouldn't see 50M as you suggest.. really not likely unless Otrexup just catches on fire..

quite frankly, the way market is wary about ATRS and Otrexup viability, if by midway 2014, we get some decent sales figures, I think it will do wonders for the stock.

I think Ryman may be right on about us being a $6 stock by midway 2014... but I think we could be closer to $10 by end of the year 2014 with good healthy sales figures, along w/ progression on QST and QSM (espec QST as that is the BIG ONE...)

tappy. should post on yahoo also...

good balanced report

bio pete

valid points...!

i think management has moved the PPS needle well, from a penny stock to where it is now, and that's something, but market has a short memory.

With any company and with any leadership, ATRS needs to adjust the way they go about communicating to the market place as it tries to become a real specialty pharma, but it just does a poor job i think. I don't see the leadership being very flexible and not adaptive to the current market/investor needs.

One or perhaps more large holder sold out their shares before FDA decision... you can take that as neutral event or glaringly negative. I will see more fund reports in the coming days, but not happy that we are adding more institutions (I recall TD Peterson and perhaps others 2-3 quarters ago excited about inbound institutions and that has not happened... usually there is a reason why)

Insiders have been selling monthly at $4's..

Insider sells shares at $5+ at FDA approval date...

Let's see what 4 Nov call brings.... and rest of year...

maybe it is the "attitude" or arrogance... or some say "conservativism"...or fear of saying too much and as you say, what if things don't pan out..

maybe little of everything above and then more.

my sense is that for some reason, ATRS management is more into making 2014 an acclaimed success, and less about where PPS is in 2013. I suppose if this comes to fruition, I am fine.

I think 4 Nov call is important for me as it is the 1st one since FDA approval, and will tell me a lot about their "attitude" and approach to communication. If I don't like the call, I will sell everything in the next pop, should there be a such thing. I tend to think so. When stock goes from 5.15 to 4.15 in 2 weeks... there will be a 'technical bounce".. prob in the 4.4-4.7 range. I am out in that time, with a small double digit gain.

If I like the call, I will hold for 2 more Q calls (Q1 2014 call will prob be very very important one). This call will help a lot to move PPS I think, as the market likes to price things in 6 months ahead of itself...

I hope it is the latter as I don't like trading frequently and there is no guarantee other stocks I might buy will fare better.

Hope they have a great ACR conference in beautiful San Diego... come back on 4th to give us some meaningful updates, put some energy back into the stock.

Good weekend from warm Korea

sorry to say that "caring about investors" is NOT about having us reach out to him or 45 min call on the phone between highly paid IR executive and ONE investor.....

in world of public companies, taking care of retail investors or any investor is growing the PPS.... PERIOD!

you do that by communicating, informing, updating, proactive engagement with analysts...and of course execution.... i think i know more about Ft Knox ( been there, seen that, etc ) than i do of ATRS...exaggeration but....

not impressed w. Anything Jack said here....matter of fact, it only tells me that more of the same is to come...
just great...

2012 Oct - 4
2013 Oct - 4

yes, this kind of performance is not something Jack or any public company exec should be pounding their chest about....

don't want to hear about " but we were pennies just years ago".... Wall Street is all about what have you done lately...

actually so is professional sports...

amongst other things..

thanks for info Jr.. but this kind of reply does nothing for me... imho only of course

Cusaf..

Sell on news is quite common with bio sector stocks. Unlike some Adcom driven binary events w/ more risky drug approvals (high risk but also w/ high premiums upon approval -- like ACAD, ATRS was a much different case. The FDA approval was virtually a done deal, and market is smart enough to have priced that in. At the end, there seem to have been some short term traders driving up the price right before the decision, shorts covering in the pre-hours after the decision driving up the PPS to above $5. But the shorts piled on then, driving down the price as they deemed the action unsustainable. The shorts were right.

As Ryman surmises, most of these shorts probably have NOT covered yet. (but this is not a bad news as it will afford an opportunity for ATRS to rise back up close to $5 in short term, IF.. IF... IF...)

In retrospect, you had management's planned sales at anything over $4.. You and an executive sell at $5 on the day of FDA approval... All this seem to indicate $4 area is more or less a fair value in their mind.

That's where we are... $4 (more or less).

Regardless whether we hit the Ryman's gap (of course it isn't his gap but everyone knows what I am talking about), I think we will stabilize here for a while.

We need:

1. COMMUNICATION from leadership. I didn't expect c/c on the DAY of FDA decision (although it would have been wise to hold one). This weekend's ACR presentations and 4 Nov earnings call are KEY. They need to address market's concerns. It is their JOB.

2. Other product line developments, partnership comments/updates, etc.

3. see #1. IF they ever felt that they could just satisfy shareholders (only way to do that is higher PPS) by being arrogant and be CIA like covert, they should know BY NOW, that it does not work.

Last Oct offering at 4... it is now 24 Oct and we are at $4.1~. Only a knucklehead CEO would think that is fulfilling his responsibility of satisfying the shareholder base - indiv or institution alike.

Yes, Bio Pete... they need to pull their head out of their monkey ass

sorry i meant mid $4'2s close to stop the downtrend and consolidate....

getting close... next week perhaps.. just to stop the down trend and start consolidation

Biopete

the shorts # is as of 15 oct... since, we've dropped quite a bit... as Ryman says, next one will be interesting.

we should be near bottom in low 4... now, i am not convinced we touch the gaps Ryman talks about. For no other reason than everyone is expecting it and many are putting limit buys there. and ATRS is one strange stock.

Technically, we need to close above mid $4's and need consolidation...

At some point, coupled w/ some material PR (someday will come), I think we move back up to $4.5's (not too difficult).. but nothing close to $5 Unless there is some real BIG earth shattering news come (BO is the only thing that comes to mind). QST, QSM, PFE undisclosed product, etc.. will prob not get us up to $5.

Ryman and few others were smart to sell at $5 +. Not likely we will see that for a while.

As you say though, some shorts covering will easily get this up 30-40 cents easy... that might be a time to sell some shares.

I am holding 200K shares still until end of year or early next year. Still think BO is a logical event, especially after talking to Jack...

glta

I am sure most of us wonder the same thing JR..

but ATRS management has been pretty consistent in that regard (not being out in the front that is).

I think perhaps they have "we let our execution do the talking" mentality when it comes to delivering shareholder value.

Optimistically, I am looking forward to the early NOV Q call to see what Paul can enlighten us with. I hope he does address lackluster share price amongst other developments and directions.

ACR conference (Sun - Tue) should help w/ some visibility.

I think we either hit Ryman's gaps This week or we stabilize here in the 4.20 support area pushing a bit higher into mid $4's before the Q call comes.

Still see high $4's and possibly $5 area by end of year...

I am giving my self 1 more quarter and looking to get out in Q1 2014, whatever the price is. I think I am putting my money into a bit more risky but rewarding start up venture funds, instead of stocks.

yup. many prob have.. or are near that....

surely this stock is behaving badly for no real reason....

too much disappointments for traders perhaps... they are leaving....

i think we won't see better action until Q call ... maybe the mgmt can deliver some confidence

brillian post..

and your point of posting is?? you want us to pat you on the back?

yes, we know about Jack's history of being involved in BO's... usually a couple of years on the job...

sooner or later ATRS will be bought out also... but can't be sure when... Scott Matusow thinks Nov/Dec. I think 2014 but would be more than OK at anytime and above $7..

YHB is once again a minefiled with unhappy posters... Can't blame them.. majority are in the loss or soon will be... as they jumped on the wagon only recently.

I don't subscribe to gap theory as much (sometimes it is a by product of shakeouts, etc), but this bear raid or whatever it is, will surely get rid of a lot of people, replacing w/ new people with higher cost basis than those old timers..

I say we hit $4 soon..
End the year at $5 give or take..only because we should have some material news hitting the wire soon between now and end of year..

why bother...

soon to be bought out anyway... :)

(no factual basis - other than a strong personal view, and no I am not one of Scott's junkie..)

glta

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/4655581-araja/2310722-antares-pharma-inc-fda-approval-with-a-hint-of-adam-f-manipulation

a link to a rebuttal to Adam's article...

ryman

i think we might fill the gap... 4.53?

sure looks to be walking it down to that level before end of day..

Adam F's critical article on commercialization of ATRS drug

.....

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12068019/1/antares-otrexup-approval-was-easy-selling-drug-will-be-hard.html

Adam Feurenstein (sp?) is twitting that people should be beware of ATRS propaganda... and that he is skeptical about doctors prescribing ATRS over existing drugs... he says there are no comparable data..

I don't know Adam well, but why is he such a skeptic? Any concerns re: his points?

well, are we going to end the day in the red?

geez....

congrats all..

as expected, we are up in the 10% range...

Ryman, let's see if we are right about conservative PPS..

Although you have to admit there are 12 mil shares short...so interim, we may see higher...

until profit taking later in the day and for few days to come..

well, whogo, i haven't experienced gov't ever being early for anything either....

with shutdown and other mess, no one there is going to be penalized in any way for being one day late - espec when that one day was a federal holiday...

so i do not think u can make the conclusion you r making here

seems to be different views on PDUFA decision when it falls on a holiday.

1. Day earlier than the actual date that falls on a holiday (11th Oct or today in our case)
2. Day after the actual date that falls on a holiday (15th Oct in our case)

From my experience or at least recollection, that it is #1 for the actual FDA decision itself, unless there was a prior notice to the applicant company of a delay or change of PDUFA date.

Anyone has any other insight? I couldn't find any 'rule' on this on the FDA site itself.

I guess it doesn't matter if it is today, Monday or Tue, but it would be nice to know

as we all know, street.com isn't the official source for anything... prone to human errors.

FDA site / tracking site still has 14 Oct.

further, I would think w/ any change, company would provide a PR? albeit this company is in comatose when it comes to PR or updating investment community.

It might be only 3 day difference, but the market never likes uncertainty and when it comes to FDA approvals, any delay isn't good for share price.

Anyway, whoever on YHB brought this up, it's interesting to refer to a Street.com news from 4-5 months ago.

I think we will get it on the 11th or 15th (decision that is)

glta

as expected.. no surprise here...
i wouldn't have expected otherwise...

1 week to go..

14th is Columbus day, so I expect something by 11th? at least that's what i think.

LGND got the FDA approval today, THE day of PDUFA date, so things look good for as non-delay goes

http://www.fiercebiotech.com/story/what-happens-fda-government-shutdown/2013-09-30

Not sure anyone really know that answer.

I do know certain "essential" elements of federal government will continue to work.. Military personnel will still get paid, etc.

FDA isn't one of the essential elements so w/ shutdown, they will not report to work.

Now, this shutdown has been in the work for a while, so one would think any organization would pre-plan for such an event, but we need to remind ourselves that this is the governement - logic/efficiency aren't a norm.

For example, I think (not totally sure) PFE has a 3 Oct (just around the corner) as a PDUFA date and I do not think there has been any announcement yet.

My view is that if shutdown lasts only a day or two (which is what I think... don't think they can afford to drag this on and on), our 14 Oct should not be affected much at all. I actually had expected an earlier approval than 14 Oct, before the shutdown, so if anything, I now expect a decision to come on or close to 14 Oct. If we get it (due to shutdown) a day or two later, so be it.

Will our PPS be affected by this shutdown? As we've been beaten down quite a bit, I don't think so. I think there will be buyers at $4 level area, so I do not expect much decline, but perhaps not much upside either, until shutdown is no longer an issue and the market gets the uncertainty (FDA decision ) out of the way, with an actcual FDA approval.

All in all, I think we will be fine.

Again, we just need that approval in OCT

Ryman,
I think if we gain FDA approval, it might happen earlier than 14 Oct.

Recent trading (likely a fund exit and not a sign of offering) should be ending soon (or have just ended today).

If you read YMB, just now some people are coming to grip that we may not see run up like a typical bio-tech company waiting for an ever important binary decision, because that's not what ATRS is. It's something I already knew and was a big reason why I jumped in w/ 225K shares over the course of last 8 months.

Focus is on FDA decision. All other things are noise. Fund exiting, for whatever the reason (funds re-balance all the time and has nothing to do w/ any 'insider' info), doesn't mean anything. W/ FDA approval, there will be dif set of funds with diff objectives who will join ATRS.

With 2+ weeks to go, only question remains, has ATRS management done all it can, cross the "t"s and dot the "i"s w/ FDA to satisfy the approval decision? knowing that drug itself has been approved and widely used for decades, and only the delivery method is in question?

I say Absolutely yes... so, it is matter of time, we will see better PPS... where it will be, I don't know... At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if only see high $4 at end of year... maybe lower, maybe higher.. all I know is that with approval, $4 range will be a new FLOOR for things to come in 2014..

Lastly, I have to admit in 15 years, ATRS has been the most frustrating stock I've held. and the Management's communication ability is sorely lacking, despite their awesome history of performance.

Hope all get good sleep and rest...

in about 10 days - give or take, we should get news.

why tomorrow am? it could be PM after hours?

I am expecting one sometime this week..

I think if this is what I think it is, then PPS drop won't last very long.. the MMs will bring this back up after panic/pissed off selling

interesting to see what happens

bio pete.. good points.

it has been my position that a buyout, sooner than later, makes sense to "this" management team in place.

but an offering, no matter what the reason, before FDA decision, would make no sense, as you indicated.

having said that, even if we do get an offering (say $4 level), I think there might be a brief dip before a strong run-up into the FDA decision...

all in all, offering now would defy logic a bit, but if we care about share price, it probably won't really hurt it beyond an hour or two after the news hit.

in any case, nothing to worry about..

we do have to worry about getting the FDA approval. that still is the only thing that matters at this point

$heff helped to rally in the past 10 min of trading from 3.98 to 4.03... and in after hours

He had ATRS earlier this year (bought at $4 range and sold at 4.4 range)... he is re-entering, but as always (almost), it's for a short term gain. He is likely to exit with high single digit to low double digit gain, if we get that.

good w/ me, if it helps to put a bottom for a while...

in any case, Michael just came out w/ another SA article it seems. Denying some rumors...other than a large seller/fund has been unloading ATRS.. (prob Vanguard)

Yea. I certainly do not know Paul intimately and what his leadership attributes are. I have worked for a number of public companies and have been a direct report to CEOs - many diff kinds and not all were very astute with investor communit or institutions. CFOs sometime filled in well.

Paul may just be one of those CEOs that do not embrace your points very well, but good at other things such as strategic vision, hiring best talent, and operational excellence. You would think his team could fill in some of Paul's shortcomings.

At the end, sooner or later, with execution, market will wake up to Atrs. Agree that it could be facilitated better.

I still hope that at least Paul will not let me/us down on fda approval in 3 weeks.

Actually their planned insider selling shows me how confident they are re: fda approval.... That at the end, the market will reward the company's execution...

Sometime i am bothered by a bit of arrogance by the mgmt team but they are surely confident of the fda approval, that much is certain...

3 weeks and we will know

i still think it's coincidental re: Dr Dave.
last week, we had above average volume with PPS dropping below 4.2 level briefly before trending 20 cent higher.. .then today dropping again below 4.2 level..

Today isn't unique.. today was 2nd time in 2 weeks..

I tend to believe it's the shorts churning/covering.

I don't buy the notion Dr Dave is selling his shares in open market immediately after his termination effective date. I just don't. I could be wrong surely, but that would be highly unusual, and it doesn't match as to what's been happening w/ ATRS past 2 weeks.. not just today

no such thing as "no risk" anything - long or short.

no one knows how this will move going into the Oct decision date or afterwards. Always a chance for CRL, but less than less as each day passes.

I think if we move it all,it would be early Oct - 1 week prior... upward that is. I don't think we will see a significant downward draft into the Fed date, other than what we are seeing last and this week.

I think of this way. Instead of worrying about if we will pop 50 cents and lose the gain shortly afterwards, once the approval is IN, even if we don't get a pop or get a pop but lose it, one thing for sure going forward - The BASE of $4 will be a floor for this stock going forward w/ the approval. Sure, some will get disgruntled cuz we didn't get a big pop or as you say, got a pop but lose it quickly... but undeniable fact will be that ATRS business model would be confirmed, sales force will crank up and will start to deliver real revenue in house in 2014, albeit incrementally only.

So, at this point, I worry less about what the PPS will be before or after approval... just that we NEED a FDA approval, which will put a solid floor into PPS and over time, we will go higher..

last week and this week's action...

I think shorts are churning... covering, shorting higher and then covering... 2 times now in the past several trading days.

we broke down 4.2 twice (last week and today).

curious if 4.2 holds up rest of week.

sooner or later, shorts will have finished their thing..

still, million dollar question and essence is do we attain FDA approval... nothing else matters right now... these volatility right before approval date is normal.

i think if we get through this and next week, a potential FDA delay lessens a great deal...

yea.. that would be fine by me..

$5 in Oct
$6's in Q1 2014
$7-$8 by Q3/Q4 in 2014 with real sales, and other product development and progress (but w/ any company, hiccups, delays, etc. could always happen).

This would be more realistic, and the shareholders should be more than pleased. I would be pleased (although I have now lowered my expectation for the nth time over the past 6 months).

double digit talks - I am not sure it will happen in 2014. It could, if unusual market forces, rumors of takeover, or actual takeover does indeed occur that might drive PPS in an extraordinary way, even if for a brief period of time.

I have GTC orders for all 200K shares just in case a unsustainable PPS spike would to occur in the coming weeks, but I just don't see it w/ this stock. This isn't a bio tech stock...

may not see much of a run up is my guess.. if anything, perhaps 1 to 2 weeks prior to the date.. but not a huge pop.

markep cap is already over 1/2 bil... i think the approval is already built in to a large degree...

big pop(s) might come after the approval, with release of some additional PR.. into late Q4 and Q1 next year..

I hope I am wrong, but may barely see a $5 with the approval... and will that last long? I doubt it.

I was only referring to short term price appreciation not long.
Been in stock market for 20 years but looking out 3 years from now for PPS isn't my main thing, as i don't subscribe to buy and hold strategy.. But that is just me and it is about my preference.

I know mr Matusow quite well yes, but i am not a fan or think of him in high regard- no more or less than any of you on any of these boards. I just happen to agree w. him on the acquisition more in near term than long term. We will see. I don't know or care about his long term price targets. He has never been good at that anyway. If anyone wants his advice, it would be short term and not 5 years down the road.

All i am saying is that the way this mgmt seems, it would be no shock to me if they did sell the company sooner than later - again i don't know if that is shortly after fda approval or way after few qtr of increasing revenue validation has taken place. And personally, due to my trading habits, i also hope for an earlier acquistion than a later one. Again we shall see. Or at least i am going to give some time to see what happens.

I plan to sell all shares at certain target point AND tim frame in increments - should hit my objectives this year i think - with fda approval, prob during first hour of pre-hour trading on that day perhaps - at least partial sell. Then rest of share selling on any material news.... Over 1-2 quarters.

All the best for those keeping some or most shares until i am few yrs older...with such a low cost basis, it must be exciting.