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Wrong, he can do something. He can put out a PR like saying that the company is on track to release data by the end of the year. There is no reason for the stock plunging. He can go on the open market an buy 10K shares along with the rest of the executive staff. He can do a nominal share buyback of say $5M or 1M shares. All token things that can settle the market for Anavex stock. He can also put out some data or start a trial that was promised a year ago. Do something. He does nothing but take it.
George I’ve been in this for 9 years now. I have accumulated more shares than I really want right now and with this latest downturn I am now under water. Yes I expect the company to be further along. Too many self inflicted wounds by Missling. His primary role is to create shareholder value. This is accomplished by providing the market with clear unambiguous results that cannot be refuted by the likes of the short crowd. We should be a $3b - $5b market cap company today. The doctor gets great grades for funding the company and delivering the results of the trials. At least the headline results. He gets an F for taking soooo long getting something into the end zone, an F for not managing the short attacks better and C for not hiring the high level talent quicker. He also gets an F for not managing Wall Street better. If I could give him a Z for a grade I would on this part.
Cross your fingers that this isn’t the day that they release news after hours. Only bad things happen Friday after hours. Contact the company and demand that they address the stock price.
George people are buying. Over 1m shares bought today. :) Everyone should be contacting the company and let them hear it. This is bullshit.
So you and Mr Palmer have now announced February as the date for data. Hmmmm.. I wonder who you spoke with at the company. As you both probably know that person is not very reliable. They have been wrong about 85% of the time on everything.
Can you please explain why it’s nonsense?? Has he promised trial starts without delivering?? Wall Street watches. Has he produced data that has led to misinterpretations of the data? Wall Street watches. Has he brought on board a few biotech funds to buy a few shares to validate the technology? Wall Street watches.
It is not nonsense. He has not delivered and he has not been held accountable. He should have been bumped up to chairman and they should have brought in a known ceo who has brought a few drugs to market.
This has nothing to do with “this particular stock manipulation and takedown”. The stock price is due to Missling’s consistent strategy of promising a lot and delivering even less. His constant missteps as ceo include missed deadlines, bumbling of data releases, hiring mediocre cro’s, not hiring a great stats guy 2 years ago, not hiring enough staff to move pipeline along faster, not partnering soon enough to get the drug into patients hands sooner, not dealing with the short attacks or AF, not going for approval in Australia before fda,…. I can go on but you get the point.
Now the ceo goes into hiding for the last 6 months or so and we are all left in the dark with a depressed share price.
They will not be doing a buy back. If they have to do another p3 then there goes the$150m and they will never start the 3 other trials.
At what point does the company reward its employees with more stock for a job well done? I believe that they will do it before they release their data and any kind of run up in the pps. I also think that mr palmer might be right. News in January after the expiration of options. Too many options sitting out there. Watch for the company to plant that seed on the earnings call around November 8th.
I suggest that EVERYONE should pick up the phone and call Dr. Missling ( not IR or CT )and ask him what the issue is with 3 items:
1. Why the long delay in with getting the Alzheimer’s full results and Rett top line results.
2. Why hasn’t the company started the 3 trials that were to start before eoy 2022. That was promised mid 2022. As shareholders shouldn’t we know why there is a 12 month delay. After all some of us invest by what the company tells us. With no explanation investors fear the worst. Which for me after so many missed deadlines is management is becoming incompetent. I still have faith in the technology but faith in the leadership is waning.
3. Why has the company gone into stealth mode really since last December. Investor Relations has no useful information and when pressed they get a bit defensive. They are being hung out to dry like we are. Many times I don’t hear back from phone calls nor emails.
Now I don’t believe anyone of us will get an answer to our calls. but putting pressure on them will at least help to make sure that we get answers on the next earnings call. That should be mid November. Come on team, rise up. Be an activist investor. Demand to be heard.
What would you say if you knew that Dr. Missling didn’t want retail people to hold avxl stock now that we are becoming a mature company. Maybe he is part of our problem as retail shareholders. He probably doesn’t want to deal with our bitching and moaning, when it could be held by institutions who do their homework and don’t complain. The difference is we do our homework and then complain when he doesn’t give us data we want in our timeframe. But it is certainly his fault that we do not have more institutions in the stock that would stop the short attack every few months. If we were in the 60 to 70% institutional holdings range shorts would go away very quickly. Until we get data, we will not be in that range and subject to these attacks. That is where Dr. Missling fails. A great big F. He has not given clean, clear data that institutions can live with. He has messed this part up. He should’ve been hiring people who know how to package this stuff up from the beginning. I was also told recently That a lot of the blame is on the CRO’s that could not turn the data around. It tells me that the CEO picked the wrong CRO. This is where partnerships come in the play. People who can do the job with their eyes closed and make this stuff happen. Probably the same reason that the trials that have been promised haven’t started yet. They can’t find CRO‘s to do it. Missling has cost us at least 2 years with his mistakes.
I guess the only way for you to corroborate this would to be call the company and ask them yourself. I would expect them to say no they don't do that . But, do we really think that over the last 3 or so years that headcount has been stuck at 40 people on board. They posted all those jobs on the their website and on linkedin but HC never changes? I think not. Call Andrew see what he says. Or the other guy, I forget his name. The old IR guy but I think he is doing something new now with the company.
I was told by the company a few months ago that they have asked new employees to not put their career change on their LinkedIn profile. It is part of their stealth strategy. They have approximately 50 - 60 employees now and interviewing all the time. Having a sales manager on board is probably correct at this point in time.
Have you received any feedback from Andrew, Clint or anyone else from the company? I speak with both of them often ( every 6-8 weeks) but nothing after my letter. That is why I wish more people would join in and become a bit more “radical “ for lack of a better word and contact the company. This is not usual behavior for a company to be this silent. Unless of course they are in a negotiation with either the FDA or potential partner based on the data they have for both Rett and Alzheimer’s. But the more the pps slips the more worried I get that the shorts have better information than we do. Or on the glass half full side the volume is low and they are just covering while we wait for the pop to $30+ on data.
But I wish we had 5 people per day doing this to rattle the cage. I know that I will probably hear from the crowd that we should leave the company alone and not distract them from their work. But this has gone on long enough. They have had the Alzheimer’s data long enough to analyze and release it. If they are waiting on peer review great but that just tells me they are afraid of the shorts and their ability to write a PR that won’t be shorted down. I hope that all of this is just a prelude to a partnership. I will be happy to exit 1/2 of my position to let some of the bio funds like Baker Brothers have some of my shares on the pop.
Maybe we should have a coordinated effort by the good folks on this board to phone, write and generally create a sense of urgency for the company. I know I have done my part recently with phone calls and formal letters to leadership including all members of the board expressing my concerns regarding how this is unfolding. Certainly not getting past the usual folks as it relates to the phone calls but hopefully the letter and my professional bitching helps create the sense of urgency. If 5 of us do this each day they cannot ignore us forever. I would like to think they would respond to the letter I sent but for some reason I don’t believe they will. I will continue to be a thorn until they come clean.
So nothing short of approval will save us. Is that what you are saying?
Look, the problem that I have is not the BS swings with the stock price. Who thinks that in the near future if the stock remains this low, the executives start giving themselves more shares??? The fact is that the volume is anemic during this down turn. It is a fact that the company does not fight for its right to a fair value market cap. Why aren't they coming out swinging? We have the greatest data as it relates to the Alz and Rett that has ever been seen. But here we are with a $600M market cap. It should be in the $3B - $5B range by now and the new Alz data we are waiting for should be taking us up to $4B - $6B at least. Why is this happening? Missling didn't want to play the wall st games. Did not want to give too much of the company away up front. Where has this gotten us? It allowed us to and maybe some smart wall st guys to accumulate over the last 3 years.
We are currently in a binary situation. Either we have great Rett results first that takes us back to the old highs of $31. When I say great results I mean results that will not allow Adam F to knock it down and we get our backing from Wall St accumulating. We need FDA guidance to submit our NDA. Then we hit them with Alz data and the same thing. No BS PR from Missling. Straight data with no conjecture. FDA guidance to submit, KOL's all jumping in to praise the data, etc. Anything short of that we head to $5 pps. If we get all of that we head right to the $6B market cap.
The market is up huge. So we’re not following the XBI or the IBB. We’re not following our peers as cassava is in the green as well as Dinali but barely. Who are we following?
Lots of insurance bought on the November puts today.
Really how sure are you that the big three are sticking it up his butt? With the entire biotech sector in disarray and most stocks in our peer group have been cut down by 70% - 80% the big three are in on all those companies as well. Are they sticking it up their ass also? I agree there is a a lot to be disappointed in with Missling as it relates to the marketing of the company and the delivery of news but I do not believe any of the big three are sticking it up anybody’s ass. Not yet anyway but if they blow these upcoming data releases all hell will break out.
Yes, but they won’t buy until they see the phase 3 Alzheimer’s data along with the Rett data. They do not want to take the risk of a small Biotech getting crushed. They would rather buy it at 25 to 30 after data knowing it’s going to 100 to 200 than buy it at eight and get crushed.
Hoskuld, I agree with everything you say. I believe the next step for Anavex will be something like an investor day. Since we have so much data that could be released over the next several months I think sometime may be mid October we get this investor day where the company goes through, their entire pipeline and the status of all indications. I also think during this time we will find out as a major headline what the FDA expects out of us and accelerated approvals will be forthcoming. Obviously for Rett Syndrome, we will get the expected. Very good to great data and will be submitting an NDA for that before the end of the year. All updates should drive the stock price significantly higher and may be back to the old highs.
Has anyone noticed that the put/call ratio is sitting at .12? A bullish signal is anything lower than 1. We are much lower obviously which tells me that the downturn is being used to buy a lot of calls. Another way the smart money can get the shares they need and want.
who cares about Fidelity unless it is the Select Bio Fund? How about Preceptive, Biotech Value, Deerfield, Jans Global Life Sciences , Baker Bros, etc
Adam Fuerstein is at it again today. Stating the obvious, $AVXL completed its Rett syndrome study 14 weeks ago, and not a word on the results.
The big delay is why haven’t they started any trials when five or six new trials should’ve been started by the end of last year. So what is going on with all these other trials that should’ve been planned for and started by the end of 2022. Why haven’t they started? Or have they and we just don’t know it. Is starting a trial immaterial event? I don’t think so, because it certainly isn’t market moving when they do start trials. Nobody really cares that they’ve started trials in the past. But it remains a huge oddity in my book that they said they were starting all these trials by the end of last year and here we are just about a year later and nothing has started. What does that tell everybody?
The only issue about Dr. Missling‘s strategy right now is the fact that he does not let us know what the path is. Why can’t he tell us conclusively how things will play out. For example, if we are waiting for a peer review, article before we release any press release with the data, then say that. Why not tell us what peer review publication we are looking to showcase our data with. Why not tell us some preliminary time frames as to when the peer review article might come out. I know things change and dates slip, but let us know what the goals are here. Same holds true for Rett . What exactly is the path forward with the data. Pier review for that as well or submission to the FDA for an NDA or something different. Just give us some of the strategy without giving away corporate secrets to the competition.
So we only have 1 trial currently running and that is the OLE Alz trial https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/search?term=anavex&limit=25&page=1 Approximately 1 1/2 years ago we were to start the following trials by the end of 2022. Parkinson's Disease Dementia, Parkinson's Disease , Angelman Syndrome, Fragile X, Frontotemporal Dementia and the elusive undisclosed disease. Here we are in late 2023 with zero of the above not being started. The big question is WHY? I would like to think that with all the slips in the past, these guys are not this bad so what could it be. Are we for sale or ready to partner? Does the partner want a say in what trials we/they will run? Maybe the trials have begun but they just haven't updated the clinical trials . gov site to show us what they are doing. My personal take is we are in negotiations which has made the company clam up as to what the strategy is. I think we are very close to knowing a lot more. No company goes this quiet for no reason. Now rest assure that if there was material bad news the company must report it. But why would there be bad news. We hit all end points for every trial we ever did. Something big is happening, but what? I think buyout because a partnership should not be this long to complete and should not stop the PR's like they have. I think it will be in the $8B -$12B range
Well what kind of surprise would releasing all the data at ctad be? It is the opposite of surprise. Data in my opinion will be released either the second or third week of September, with a partnership. That will be a surprise and get Wall Street back to work after Labor Day.
If you look at the pipeline chart on the anavex website ( https://www.anavex.com/therapeutic-candidates ) you will see 3 P3 trials completed now and 6 P3 trials being planned meaning P2's are not needed. 6 of the trials are for 273 and 3 for 371. I believe this is an update to the website is it not? I don't recall ever seeing 9 P3 trials being completed or planned before.
Even with Dr. Missling's sketchy relationship with dates and calendars it seems to me that there is something very big playing out. No material updates really since last December. No new trials have started when we were told as early as last June that we should expect at least 3 or 4 new trials to begin before the end of 2022. Here we are knocking on the door of Sept 2023 and still no trials started. WHY? Are they starting them without telling us? Is it material that they tell us? What about the Rett results, where are they? They could have had top line results out already. I remember a long time ago Dr. Missling told me that top line results can be released very fast within weeks if they wanted to. Our stock price is pinned to a range, 7.50 - 9.50 . Typically you see that just before an explosion. Is the Dr. waiting for a Q3 big event where they will announce a huge partnership along with a buy in of stock by the partner? At the same time announce Rett and Alz data which explains why the partnership now? Announce the guidance by the FDA for both Alz and Rett which is why we need the partnership now, to run whatever trials the FDA wants to see.. Also announce the new trial starts ( 371, rare diseasse, etc. ) and use the $500M - $1B we get up front from the partner to help off set those costs. All irrefutable data that will make AF go away for good. The stock goes to $35ish on the news and new buyers come in to take some of our shares off our retail plates. But not before the $30's. Thoughts??
Or they will just use the voucher to speed up the alz approval.
Does anyone know how much the brokerage firms are currently paying to borrow shares? That should be one way of seeing how real the latest short attack is. I bet the rate is very low, maybe in the 2% range. There will be no conviction in this short attack.
I don’t buy into the theory that all of the manipulation is to keep the stock price at eight dollars. If the company presented itself better and was not so secretive, hired more people played by wall streets rules a little we would not be at eight dollars. If this is all a Preplanned cabal that is doing this then explain to me why all of the biotech funds that are out there have not jumped on and bought some shares? Are they part of the cabal as well? How deep does the Cabal go? I do believe in an experienced CEO has had some self-inflicted wounds that have allowed the Adam Fierstein‘s of the world to manipulate things. But I do not believe it goes into biotech funds and others. I believe the biotech funds are waiting for the data before they jump in. I’m sure they would much rather buy it at 20 than to take the risk at eight and have a failure. If they buy it at 20 chances are the stock is going to go to 100 and that’s what they care about.
Keep in mind a few things. The shorts are typically smarter and more prepared to get out of their position than longs. Rarely is there a short squeeze. They play the long game as well. They will just beat the snot out of us at higher levels if a few of them get caught. The only way we get stability and fair value is to have great data, a partnership and institutional holdings up in the 60% - 80% range. I don’t believe that Dr. Missling can surprise the market and create a squeeze.
Look I’m all in on the company but I don’t understand the “surprise the market“ routine. How is he going to surprise the market? He just told the market data will come out between now and the end of the year. Does he think that the shorts will start to cover now that he has announced a surprise? How about surprise the market by doing what you say you’re doing. How about defining what a near term catalyst is. All the trials that are starting in the near term were listed last June and were set to begin before the end of 2022. Build trust with the street and maybe they will respond. When giving out data be clear and precise. Maybe we won’t get crushed by the shorts each time. Our stock price is where it is because of self inflicted wounds by the company. If we took the time to embrace Wall Street and bring them in, we would not be in this position. How about instead of using Lincoln Park as our cheap way of bringing in cash let Wall Street play a little bit. You could still use Lincoln Park for the majority, but if you let a few of the larger players in on the share sales it would help build that bridge. They are going to end up using the larger guys sooner or later. Maybe it’s done with a partnership, but we might not have to have gone through the last eight years with the up and down stock price. For the last two years it has been pretty much straight down. Get your act together Dr. Missling and stop playing games. Let people truly understand what the company has. It’s time to really build shareholder value.
Jessie or any of the other big brains here, since Anavex is going for Accelerated Approval based on the same biomarkers as Biogen and Lilly ( reduced amaloid beta and p tau ) do we have any past data from any of our trials matching up with them ? Do we do it better than the others? Do we have this data from the p2/3 trial that we received on December 1st. Just wondering if this data is a slam dunk or we need wait for the detailed information. Or can we be a bit worse on these biomarkers but with our great efficacy we are probably good to go. The other question is how come we can’t get approval based on our own great data or at least an approval with a P4. Thanks.
Question for the board. If Anavex 273 has multiple formulations, one for pill and one for liquid is the liquid considered a different drug thus allowing the vouched to be approved no matter if Alz is approved first? Is it a different chemical compound?