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5 Billion? It would be north of $10B if results are positive. Probably closer to $20B IMHO. Juno & Kite were bought at $10B, and they didn' even have any results yet. Minimum $10B, and with positive results, more likely higher, closer to $20B potentially!
Basin , I am unable to private message. Last I calculated, with warrants we were in the 700M not 1 Billion.
Currently from latest 10-Q there are 562,462 common shares available. 372,153 warrants are outstanding, which is still under 1B, but I agree close. However, these are exercisable at ~$0.30, so that would provide NWBO ~$110M of cash. This in itself would add to the market cap. And, nearly 1M warrants expired last year, so more would be expiring, though probably minimal. That said, with $110M in the bank, add another $1B to the market cap, and then we would get:
0.9B shares. So at 11B market cap you are at $12/share, at $21B market cap $23.50/share. But either way, I think with $110M in the bank, and the ability to use the shelf to get more money to commercialize, and DC Direct potential, this could easily jump to $40B - $50B atleast during the big rush and short squeeze, giving a stock price of $45 - $60 per share!! Or more!
I never said it would jump up to 100 Billion market cap. I said it could go to $20B Market Cap. But with extremely positive results, the value could be closer to $100B, in that if Direct were approved, and were selling at full capacity, then NWBO would easily be in the 300B market cap. So I could readily see Big Pharma wanting to buy NWBO anywhere from $40B to $80B and it would be considered a huge discount.
Why do you think I believe Big Pharma has been funding the naked shorting of NWBO. They know that positive results could make this a juggernaut, because NWBO has manufacturing capabilities (i.e. Cognate), so they wouldnt need to be bought out, and could push the buyout price well higher than $10B!!!
Oh and for Basin; the number of shares outstanding is ~ 500M, and with warrants, and other possible share counts, would be more like 770M, so not quite 1B shares. So $20 a share is easily a doable market cap if positive results!
Should go much higher than $8, even $15 a share in IMHO. @ $15/share, the market cap would be ~10B. If P3 is positive, that is a +20B market cap. So more like $30 a share. And could go higher if OS median really beats out the SOC results. Remember, they have DCVax-Direct in the pipeline which makes this a $100B market Cap company IMHO!!
If stock traders knew which trials failed and which trials succeeded, everyone would be millionaires. There have been numerous Biotech stocks that had low valuations until trial positive results came out.
Come on, Scotty, saying something as crazy as that makes me believe you dont understand stocks, let alone Biotech.
Using Optune data, I graphed the blinded/blended mOS to be just under 19 months from randomization.
Sorry I meant blinded/blended data. Just replace all.
I agree you make a valid case. Only stating that one would think they would state Direct somewhere in the title or description.
You make a good point there. I just think they would state Direct somewhere in the literature
Okay here my list:
1) Even if you can use Direct for GBM, it isn’t specifically for GBM.
2) They don’t specifically state Direct anywhere.
3) it’s a GBM Summit.
However, as was seen in the past, this could be a place holder if Topline results are available however easily twisted to provide Direct results of the 40 Flipper mentioned.
It states GBM. Direct is for everything but GBM. Has to be regarding DCVax-L.
Who is GTSM?
They way I understand it is the phase three trial is newly acquired GBM not recurrent. There is a difference. I believe that is the reason KITE achieved approval from a phase 2 rather than having to do a phase 3 trial.
Not denying they were approved. They are approved as a secondary or tertiary treatments, NOT PRIMARY. DCVax-L is looking to be a PRIMARY treatment for GBM.
They still need to get approvals/trials to be PRIMARY treatments!!!
Exactly, hence NWBO is still in the mix, and IMHO should have a market cap valuation of atleast $1B let alone $5B - $10B.
Yes they are approved for relapsed treatments.
Put it this way.... if DCVax-L is approved here in the next year or so, NWBO jumbs right into the mix, and surely becomes a considerable threat to both KITE (Gilead) & JUNO (Celgene). All my point was that NWBO should retain a much larger market cap then it does, even if it is hugely risky.
Correct me if I am wrong, (and I dont mind being wrong), but is Yescarta, or any other Cart-T product approved to be the "Primary Treatment"? I dont believe so.
And I was speaking on DCVax-L specifically, which is GBM focused. Now, I dont mind saying that KITE and JUNO may be or have been further along, but I will say that not by much, and definitely not enough to warrant 100 times the market cap size. My point was that NWBO is on their heels if not right in line with them competitively (if they have positive results of course), and yet their market cap is 0.1% of theirs from 1 - 2 years ago.
exwannabe's reply??? (Birds Tweeting...)
Exactly my point that KITE wasnt as far along as NWBO.
Where did you get that Schedule?
"Both their lead drugs were approved 2 years ago and are being used to treat patients for real revenue dollars.
Why is that so hard to understand?"
LOL, you dont even do your homework. Juno's Cart-T HAS NOT been approved yet. They are looking at a 2020 approval timeline.
I am no biologist, but these Car-T therapies are not seen at the primary treatment as of yet. The market it states it can go after is $3B a year, as opposed to >$10B for DCVax Direct's potential. DCVax-L has the possibility to do ~4 - $5B a year including Europe & NA (~$140K per treatment, 28,000 treatments Europe & NA combined).
"At last year’s Ash Juno said approval was thus possible as early as the end of 2018 (Ash 2017 – Transcend fails to prevent Juno’s second collapse, December 12, 2017). And this is where the bullish rhetoric ended, with Celgene now looking much further down the road at a mid-2020 approval."
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/events/conferences/ash-2018-jcar017-development-path-takes-another-twist
I though Yescarta was to treat patients with “certain” types of large B-cell lymphoma after they have relapsed after atleast two other kinds of treatments.
So yescarta isn’t the first treatment that the patients go for? Hmmmm.
Sorry they have drugs approved for the treatment of GBM? I didn’t see that. Yescarta is the only one approved. Juno has nothing approved yet. And Yescarta is not for primary treatments.
Of their Phase 2 yes. Again, their Phase 3 isnt complete, so how is it that Kite and Juno are sooo much ahead of NWBO?
I am defending NWBO management. Nor the decisions they made. I would have done things way differently. All I am saying is that extremely large sell volumes that have occurred since the drop in 2015 points towards a concerted effort to drop the share price. Maybe it’s not BP, maybe It’s a pissed off ex boyfriend of Linda’s that has lots of money to do these kinda of things. All I now is that shorts sell in large volumes, investors selling will break it up in smaller volumes to not effect the price as much.
Both Juno and Kite’s unblinded data wasn’t even close to DCVaxL so to say they were ahead of NWBO is false. No matter if they were a bit ahead, teh fact that they were $10B market cap and NWBO is 0.1B shows there is something wrong.
Look at the daily volume and then look at the short volume. The short volume is overwhelming part of the daily volume. With a Merck employee jumping on board, the stock should be at a minimum $1B even if negative speculation, and it isn’t.
Put blinders on and believe what you want to believe.
The unblinded data looks better than any unblinded data out there so no there is much to show that this is most likely a positive trial. If anything there should be a bump for the market willing to take the risk and reward it will be positive.
So both of them have approved products? They don’t need any phase 3 trials?
NWBO is almost done their phase 3 trial, and their market cap is 100M, something wrong with that picture.
Yeah hence Duffy quit Merck to work at NWBO.
Sorry have Kite and Juno both completes positive phase 3 trials?
And the price dropped heavily? Hmmmm sounds counterintuitive.
That wasn’t my point.
Wow that statement was fact based!
Read Larry Smith’s makes shorting. Naked shorting is done because it’s difficult to trace. Not saying BP is the ones actually shorting, but they do have investment companies that they funnel money to short small caps like NWBO.
The graphs with volumes show extreme price drops caused by large volume sells as opposed to numerous amount of volume sells from the market. You don’t see sloped drops in price you see vertical cliffs in price drops. That is the reason.
Maybe it isn’t BP, maybe L Powers upset some rich moguls, whoever’s it is, the grapes show that there is a concerted effort to reduce the share price and keep it low.
Think about this, even if there is a 20%chance NWBO has a positive trial, there is now way it should be at 1% of a $10B value.
Because BP wants to bankrupt them, and secondly if they bought shares they would need to disclose this which would give NWBO more positive news which is what they don’t want.
Just as I predicted, look at the large ~400K sell volume that just posted dropping the price almost 2 cents.