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looking for FCX help
i am not an options expert
but i think FCX is way oversold
when hedgies are done liquidating/raising cash
these beaten down issues should bounce nicely
OCT 2008 Calls common at 68.72 (it's near lod and but spread outlay is now in $3 area from 3.40 with common at 67)
Symbol Bid Ask Volume Strike
+FCXJN 5.60 5.75 554 70
+FCXJO 3.70 3.80 478 75
+FCXJP 2.38 2.46 574 80
e.g. you want to put $3000 into a position
You can buy 6 Oct.70s for $3450
Your breakeven is 75.75
If FCX gets to 80 you make $2550
or
You buy 10 Oct 70s for $5750
You write 10 Oct 80s for a credit of $2338, an outlay of $3412
Your breakeven is 73.41
Oct close Buy Strategy Spread Strategy %move in common
74 2400 - 3450 = -1050 4000 - 3412 = 588 7.7%
75 3000 - 3450 = -450 5000 - 3412 = 1588 9.1%
76 3600 - 3450 = 150 6000 - 3412 = 2588 10.6%
77 4200 - 3450 = 750 7000 - 3412 = 3588 12.0%
78 4800 - 3450 = 1350 8000 - 3412 = 4588 13.5%
79 5400 - 3450 = 1950 9000 - 3412 = 5588 15.0%
80 6000 - 3450 = 2550 10000 - 3412 = 6588 16.4%
81 6600 - 3450 = 3150 10000 - 3412 = 6588 17.9%
85 9000 - 3450 = 5550 23.7%
87 10200 - 3450 = 6750 26.6%
Options experience wanted: FCX bullish strategy
help please
i am not an options expert
but i think FCX is way oversold
when hedgies are done liquidating/raising cash
these beaten down issues should bounce nicely
OCT 2008 Calls common at 68.72
Symbol Bid Ask Volume Strike
+FCXJN 5.60 5.75 554 70
+FCXJO 3.70 3.80 478 75
+FCXJP 2.38 2.46 574 80
e.g. you want to put $3000 into a position
You can buy 6 Oct.70s for $3450
Your breakeven is 75.75
If FCX gets to 80 you make $2550
or
You buy 10 Oct 70s for $5750
You write 10 Oct 80s for a credit of $2338, an outlay of $3412
Your breakeven is 73.41
Oct close Buy Strategy Spread Strategy %move in common
74 2400 - 3450 = -1050 4000 - 3412 = 588 7.7%
75 3000 - 3450 = -450 5000 - 3412 = 1588 9.1%
76 3600 - 3450 = 150 6000 - 3412 = 2588 10.6%
77 4200 - 3450 = 750 7000 - 3412 = 3588 12.0%
78 4800 - 3450 = 1350 8000 - 3412 = 4588 13.5%
79 5400 - 3450 = 1950 9000 - 3412 = 5588 15.0%
80 6000 - 3450 = 2550 10000 - 3412 = 6588 16.4%
81 6600 - 3450 = 3150 10000 - 3412 = 6588 17.9%
85 9000 - 3450 = 5550 23.7%
87 10200 - 3450 = 6750 26.6%
FCX bullish strategy: help please
i am not an options expert
but i think FCX is way oversold
when hedgies are done liquidating/raising cash
these beaten down issues should bounce nicely
OCT 2008 Calls common at 68.72
Symbol Bid Ask Volume Strike
+FCXJN 5.60 5.75 554 70
+FCXJO 3.70 3.80 478 75
+FCXJP 2.38 2.46 574 80
e.g. you want to put $3000 into a position
You can buy 6 Oct.70s for $3450
Your breakeven is 75.75
If FCX gets to 80 you make $2550
or
You buy 10 Oct 70s for $5750
You write 10 Oct 80s for a credit of $2338, an outlay of $3412
Your breakeven is 73.41
Oct close Buy Strategy Spread Strategy %move in common
74 2400 - 3450 = -1050 4000 - 3412 = 588 7.7%
75 3000 - 3450 = -450 5000 - 3412 = 1588 9.1%
76 3600 - 3450 = 150 6000 - 3412 = 2588 10.6%
77 4200 - 3450 = 750 7000 - 3412 = 3588 12.0%
78 4800 - 3450 = 1350 8000 - 3412 = 4588 13.5%
79 5400 - 3450 = 1950 9000 - 3412 = 5588 15.0%
80 6000 - 3450 = 2550 10000 - 3412 = 6588 16.4%
81 6600 - 3450 = 3150 10000 - 3412 = 6588 17.9%
85 9000 - 3450 = 5550 23.7%
87 10200 - 3450 = 6750 26.6%
MELI oversold bounce on stochastics/ nice bullish engulf friday
see ref post for charts
ABH pinch play
Is Paper Dead?
Friday September 12, 7:00 am ET
By Daniel Rohr, CFA
http://biz.yahoo.com/ms/080912/251747.html?.v=1
Subprime Primer needs a new slide
http://docs.google.com/TeamPresent?docid=ddp4zq7n_0cdjsr4fn&skipauth=true
RSG Investment Bank of Wall Street
"Trust the 'Really Smart Guys' for All Your Investment Needs"
Woops! F*ck me :(
I've just lost my shirt
WNR stochastic buy
people were enthusiastic re WNR last week
it showed up on my stochastic reversal scan
stock reversed a 2mo downtrend early in aug
8/14 and 9/8 reference highs
8/22&26 matching lows with another low 9/10
you can see how the upmoves are matched with stochastic turns from the oversold area
first up move ran $3 (6.47to9.48), second $4.5(7.81to12.31), this one ?
it's refineries are NOT in the Texas Gulf Coast
it's crude supply comes from the Permian Basin generally located in West Texas.
Ike shut down 14 Texas refineries with a total capacity of 3.8 million barrels of crude a day, or about 20 percent of the country's total output.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080914/ike_energy.html
that volume bar Friday might indicate WNR's advantage as a non gulf coast refiner?
ULTR initial DD on South American marine transport of hydrocarbons
Mgmt Discussion
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0000919574%2D08%2D004341%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2008%5C08%5C12%5C&CoName=ULTRAPETROL+BAHAMAS+LTD&FormType=6%2DK&RcvdDate=8%2F12%2F2008&pdf=
http://ir.ultrapetrol.net/eventdetail.cfm
earnings call has accompanying slides
2Q earnings call transcript
http://seekingalpha.com/article/90848-ultrapetrol-bahamas-ltd-q2-2008-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo&page=2
slides accompanying conf call
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001171843%2D08%2D000625%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2008%5C08%5C13%5C&CoName=ULTRAPETROL+BAHAMAS+LTD&FormType=6%2DK&RcvdDate=8%2F13%2F2008&pdf=
Profile
http://shipping.capitallink.com/company/profile.html?ticker=ULTR
http://www.ultrapetrol.net/index.asp
River Business video link
http://ir.ultrapetrol.net/index.cfm#
FLE: Ultrapetrol to Present At Jefferies 5th Annual Shipping, Logistics & Offshore Services Conference
http://ir.ultrapetrol.net/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=333173
FWLT pinch play/ scalp setup
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32093645
sequence of higher highs and higher lows has sort of exhausted itself, so further plays on this one today are more problematic
CDS announced share buyback
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080912/clf031.html?.v=101
500K shares at $5/share
is less than 2% of the outstanding but
15% of the float
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CDS
scalp setup from the bottom:
hurricane view central: http://web.tampabay.rr.com/wolfy/
found this on the hurricane board
more views than you could absorb
gapper: LULU what a LULU; what's that you say down in pm?!!!!
this one is 70% short on float
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=lulu
2 day static ............................................................. 15'
yes central time
HK followup
Scalp setup of the day: PCU
note that the stochastics on the 30tick don't give you the same oversold characteristic to signal the rebuys
poinchers... a ton of them FWLT
GIGM what did i say in ref post?
gee 40% lower now and story is the same!
gapper pick: SLV
metals including precious metals oversold
some strength today in shipping, copper, etc.
tomorrow gold & silver?
CTIB
ppt presentation 8-K
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5871874
stock has moved up
some pumping going on from thelion
am not in it myself
"Safeway just started stocking the pumps today at 3.99 and the quart/gallon bags at 3.49 each. Much cheaper than HandiVac's pump at 10.99 and gallon bags at 3.99 on the nearby shelf.
"
from yahoo message board
their price pt. is undercutting Reynold's
http://www.reynoldspkg.com/reynoldskitchens/handi_vac/en/product.asp?cat_id=1337&prod_id=3918
STLD
HK Scalp setup
>
GHDX transcript of Q2 earnings
http://seekingalpha.com/article/94630-authentec-downgraded-to-hold-on-lower-outlook?source=side_bar_long_ideas
got a $2 downgrade today from Canaccord... they are yo yoing tween 22 &24. is this really significant?
29-Jan-08 Initiated Canaccord Adams Buy $27
07-May-08 Reiterated Canaccord Adams Buy $22 → $24
08-Sep-08 Downgrade Canaccord Adams Buy → Hold $24 → $22
wowie zowie photon: http://finviz.com/help_guidedtour.ashx
looks like a whole bunch of fun
Nat Gas on sale: HK CHK GDP PQ QBC
unreal selloff
i feel more and more that money exiting the financials, real estate, mortage insurance, etc. last year ran into the commodities, & basic materials plays
that bubbled.... like coal, JRCC JOYG etc. and now the bubble has been pricked
however they've taken the nat. gas sector down too far, particularly those with interest in the Haynesville Shale
i remember getting JRCC at $6 a couple years back when Pirate Capital was decapitating itself.
here's an article about the future of that property:
DEALTALK-Haynesville Shale land grab could spur deals
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAN0326924720080903?rpc=44
i added HK today at the close
The Haynesville Is Hot (motley fool)
http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2008/07/01/the-haynesville-is-hot.aspx
COIN testimonial
Converted Organics' Liquid Fertilizer Increases Cranberry Yield, Decreases Fungus for Massachusetts Grower
Tuesday September 9, 9:00 am ET
Results May Influence Growing Practices in Major Cranberry-Producing State
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080909/20080909005667.html?.v=1
They announced a distribution deal with a home&garden distributor late last month
Converted Organics, Gro Group announce deal
Tuesday August 26, 1:34 pm ET
Converted Organics to supply fertilizer to Gro Group's major distributors
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080826/converted_organics_gro_group.html?.v=1
i could not decipher if the Gro group is a significant player or not. the home&garden biz is very fragmented so it's not clear how material this deal was.
COIN could benefit from more "in vivo" testimonials like the cranberry growers
recall that COIN has warrants that trade with a lot of leverage:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?COIN,COINW,QQQQ,coinz
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=30109787
ANAD great products in weak handset mkts
new models are not supplanting older ones as quickly and product cycles are slowing
can't remember if i heard last cc or not.
they replaced CEO... always talked a good line and wasn't delivering
don't know if they have lost contracts to cheaper competition
won't seriously revisit until it starts shaping up more
they have big stake in WiMax
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WiMAX
and WiMAX has been touted for a number of years as a broadband new wave but the wave has never materialized
look at ALVR share price this decade!
Baltic Dry Index where are those China import orders?
NOEC
New Oriental Energy and Chemical Receives Two Financial Awards From Provincial Government for Its Synthetic Ammonia Energy Optimization Project and for Successfully Reducing Energy Consumption and Air Pollutants in Production Processes
Tuesday September 9, 8:00 am ET
Also Receives Bureau of Science and Technology Certification of Its R&D Efforts Furthering the Commercialization of DME; Anticipates Continued Strong Government Support in Developing Its Alternative Fuel Business
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080909/0431817.html
GEOY bird in the air
Solar Comparisons
http://www.cnanalyst.com/2008/09/solar-stocks-co.html
Company (Ticker) Mkt Price Daily YTD Rev Rev Chg EPS EPS Chg P/E P/E Net
Cap Chg Chg 08E 09E % 08E 09E % 08E 09E Margin
First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) 19438 247.14 -5.2% -7% 1228 2200 79% 3.71 6.97 88% 67 35 29%
MEMC (NYSE:WFR) 9483 41.48 -11.9% -53% 2298 2852 24% 4.11 5.06 23% 10 8 32%
Suntech Power (NYSE:STP) 6411 41.67 -7.2% -49% 2153 3212 49% 1.68 2.63 57% 25 16 13%
LDK Solar (NYSE:LDK) 4748 45.67 -6.3% -3% 1592 2505 57% 2.71 4.42 63% 17 10 30%
SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) 3380 84.81 -6.9% -35% 1421 2053 44% 2.32 3.64 57% 37 23 3%
Energy Conv. (NASDAQ:ENER) 2766 68.63 -2.9% 104% 470 680 45% 1.68 3.16 N/M N/M 22 -23%
JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO) 2359 15.70 -7.2% -33% 1046 1898 81% 0.99 1.64 65% 16 10 19%
Yingli Green Energy (NYSE:YGE) 1976 15.57 -7.7% -60% 1111 1740 57% 0.99 1.60 61% 16 10 13%
ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE:SOL) 1834 16.10 -5.5% 24% 683 1256 84% 1.37 2.41 76% 12 7 16%
Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ:ESLR) 1030 8.51 -5.0% -51% 114 418 266% -0.25 0.45 N/M N/M 19 -26%
Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ) 786 28.65 -5.9% 2% 962 1727 80% 2.78 3.76 35% 10 8 -6%
Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) 711 28.01 -8.9% -48% 843 1289 53% 3.35 4.42 32% 8 6 10%
Solarfun Power (NASDAQ:SOLF) 677 14.10 -0.1% -57% 799 1097 37% 0.99 1.45 46% 14 10 7%
China Sunergy (NASDAQ:CSUN) 366 9.25 -7.3% -44% 451 610 35% 0.30 1.00 236% 31 N/M 3%
Akeena Solar (NASDAQ:AKNS) 114 4.02 -1.7% -49% 41 56 36% -0.63 -0.49 N/M N/M N/M -29%
DayStar Tech. (NASDAQ:DSTI) 101 3.12 -4.3% -50% 0 13 N/M -0.77 -0.82 N/M N/M N/M N/A
BTU Int'l (NASDAQ:BTUI) 94 10.08 -2.9% -24% 77 97 26% 0.13 0.57 338% 78 18 4%
Ascent Solar (NASDAQ:ASTI) 95 8.16 -3.4% -67% 2 5 160% -0.65 -0.61 N/M N/M N/M -770%
Spire Corporation (NASDAQ:SPIR) 88 10.52 -3.5% -56% 78 129 65% 0.02 0.87 N/M 601 12 -14%
Hoku Scientific (NASDAQ:HOKU) 97 5.74 -4.8% -50% 18 109 515% -0.15 0.21 N/M N/M 27 -139%
UAUA braggart
someone on theLion claiming to have bought UAUA calls at 11:03EDT evidently just before the halt
how does that help anyone...
hate these kinds of posters
http://finance.yahoo.com/#market_summary_asia
Asia is responding positively to the FNM FRE "rescue" with3+% gains near midnight EST
Futures soar after U.S. takes over GSEs
Sunday September 7, 6:35 pm ET
By Chris Sanders
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080907/markets_stocks.html?.v=1
Unfortunately, if you held FNM or FRE you won't be happy.
Fannie and Freddie
Likely to Plunge,
Searing Investors
By TOM LAURICELLA, SERENA NG and ROBIN SIDEL
September 8, 2008
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122083521070808711.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo
"Also feeling pain from the buyout will be many of the nation's banks, which own preferred shares in the government-sponsored entities that were once worth billions of dollars. In recent weeks, a slew of banks have disclosed their holdings to investors and, in some cases, written off the value due to the steep declines in Fannie and Freddie's stock prices"
Unless you know if your bank stocks are holding preferred paper of these GSEs you can't really know if they will rise or fall on this news.
TRADING: "More Signal...less Noise"
LIVING: "One World, One Family, Warm Heart" Dalai Lama
TIE "scalp setup"
image from quotetracker
charts are 30ticks/candlestick & 50ticks
looking for concordances between t3 crossovers, stochastic reversals, and the CCI histogram.
Look how any of these give scalp buy signals on the 30tick, but the t3crossover on the paintbars are the most reliable entries on the 50tick
am always looking for high beta plays for these opportunities
watch GDP HK CHK in nat gas sector for similar type moves
not to sound too preachy, but it is important to remember that every ticker has it's own lifesigns and tuning technical indicators to the pulse of individual tickers makes a lot more sense than trying to make charts fit technical indicator patterns
TRADING: "More Signal...less Noise"
LIVING: "One World, One Family, Warm Heart" Dalai Lama
CDNS poised?
midAugust pincher CDNS crossed the ema8 with volume on 8/15 and ran nearly $1 to above 8. it pulled back for a week before Friday's candle, a nice engulfer and is on the oversold bounce scan now. is definitely worth a spot on watchlists
CDNS poised?
midAugust pincher (http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=31517009)
CDNS crossed the ema8 with volume on 8/15 and ran nearly $1 to above 8. it pulled back for a week before Friday's candle, a nice engulfer and is on the oversold bounce scan now. is definitely worth a spot on watchlists
TRADING: "More Signal...less Noise"
LIVING: "One World, One Family, Warm Heart" Dalai Lama
CREE technically ready for bounce
down quite a bit from ref post in 30s
held 21 on repeated challenges in last 2 days
good potential if a short covering rally sweeps across the indicies
TRADING: "More Signal...less Noise"
LIVING: "One World, One Family, Warm Heart" Dalai Lama
gapper pick: RAMR for those shorts who forgot to set stops before they went to work today
TRADING: "More Signal...less Noise"
LIVING: "One World, One Family, Warm Heart" Dalai Lama
RAMR can it do a TGIC?
TRADING: "More Signal...less Noise"
LIVING: "One World, One Family, Warm Heart" Dalai Lama
APP came to my attention on ref post
promised to do some DD on it and didn't fully followthrough
my bad