Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Possible the 5 to 10% correction has started with no big rally inbetween.
My gut says up into next week, bottom today or tomorrow morning. Then more selling comes in, not sure final low, but 3400 is a logical target.
True selling climax today, but not enough fear for a solid bottom.
Down to just 50% short spy, covered more at 343.
Bought more amd, nvda, and twlo, up to 10% long all three, 5% long crwd and docu
Now 50% long, 50% short
covered half my 250% short in spy at 346, small loss. I had shorted the entire amount at about 342.
Now just 120% short.
Bought a little crwd, docu, twlo, nvda, and amd. Put 5% of my money into each of them. Near the low of the day, they are all my favorites to own.
spx 3420 later today or as soon as next week very likely before this quick correction is over.
Massive overbought and too much complacency finally brought the quick big drop, now how bad can it get?
A perfect top, which never happens, would see the spx down 1 or even 2% tomorrow, then back up to a higher high friday, followed by a drop back to 3450 next week, with again another new high the following week, forming the top.
VIX saying major top is in or will be soon, same for a/d numbers.
Watching crwd earnings today, and docu earnings tomorrow for major clues about market direction.
They are both insanely overvalued, but also stocks you have to own for the next couple years. Expectations are high for earnings, can they blow out the numbers like zoom did?
VIx above 24 is bearish, vix over 26 is very bearish.
I am super bullish for next couple years, but bearish for next couple months. I think silver and gold could drop into end of this week, would be excellent time to buy if they do.
Of possible interest:
Up into holiday weekend, then down next week, then final up into options expiration two weeks from now, then final week of sept and into mid oct, a larger correction.
Of course, the above is what logically should happen, and with the news cylce, is less possible to predict what the market will actually do.
BTW, GDP for second quarter will come out last week of OCt, will be largest gain ever, Trump will take full credit for that, and that could push him over the top into a win.
RSI for the high of the day now at 89, possible we get to 3600 on spx before a top.
The following is not a political view, it is something I have learned the hard way.
Trump is going to win the election, either fairly, or by some barely legal method.
I say this as he is willing to do anything, including killing his fellow americans with his current virus policy, in order to be president again.
I have know several Trumps in my life. They always get their way. I have learned that if you have no moral limit to what you will do, you will always win. This does not apply to war, where an infinately better supplied force will win no matter what.
So the only question is will the GOP carry the senate? If they do, the market will rally enormously. If they dont, I expect a big decline after the election.
Last, if Trump wins fair and square, market rallies big time. If he has to use slightly legal methods, it will be chaos.
The only trouble with the bear case, is that what news will bring down the market? Seems bad news only hurts for a day or less, good news lasts for weeks.
Market rallying on Fauci saying vacine could be available sooner than expected. My gut is it will not solve the problem.
Will dems cave and give GOP a stimulus bill they want, without helping the states or local governments? Market is assuming they will.
My plan is to be fully short the spy by the end of the day today.
The only time the 21dma equity options on the CBOE had a lower reading, that is people were more bullish than now, was at the end of March, 2003, just before a very volatile month of april.
The spx is now 15.2% above its 200dma. In past 30 years, it only got more above the 200dma in Jan 2000, and in sept 2009.
One time was a major sell, the other a buy signal!
I have been keeping a daily spx reading since 1990.
Today is the highest RSI reaading ever, i have values for the low of the day, and for the high.
The second highest was in January 2018, at 86. Today is at 87 so far.
This reading insuates a pullback is imminent, but that another new high in the next 6 months is also likely.
I owned EMC, bought right at bottom in oct 1998, but did not sell when it got over 100 in oct 2000, instead sold at 70 in Jan 2001. I also owned CSCO from 1993, but sold it in Jan 2000 at 66, just before it went to 82 in March 2000, and then it fell below 10 in oct 2002.
It was at 13 at the low in march 2003, as I recall.
This really is looking like 2000 bubble, which was primarily caused by the fed flooding the market with liquidity before Y2K. Which of course ended the computer age as they could not handle the year 2000.
Or did that disaster not happen?
Different this time as Fed is still flooding market with liquidity.
On march 23, 2000, NTAP went up 20%,and jsdu went up 15% in just one day.
The market topped the next day. they were the hottest stocks in 2000.JDSU lost 98% of its value in the next 3 years, ntap 85%, same as most tech stocks.
Of course, this time is different.
Just shorted 100 spy at 351.1.
Will wait and short more near the close tomorrow if we keep rallying into that time frame.
10 day ma for the trin is flashing short term sell, but that indicator has acted strange for past several months.
Normally would say sell,sell,sell,but with fed pumping, market expecting a cure for covid soon, and expectations for a stimulus bill from congress soon, market can only go up (right?)
True parabolic rise in qqq, usually ends in big correction, but see above, this time is different. Not sure if the last two sentances are right or wrong, as normally this pattern is for sure a sell, but if fed is pumping massive liquidity into the markets, that could prop up some asset classes, such as bonds, stocks, precious metals, real estate, etc.
The poor get poorer and the rich get richer, so what else is new?
Full moon tuesday night, market often makes important bottom or top then. So if we have a big drop into close tomorrow, is a buy op. Same for rally into close tomorrow, sell op.
I lean towards shorting opportunity, but a 1 to 2% drop here would be a nice entry for one more rally into next week.
VIX is jumping today, bearish sign. a/d numbers still very bearish.
I am also tired of reading political views, my own included.
I dont think the market cares who wins, the market only fears uncertianty. And if Trump loses and then tries to steal the election, which sadly looks like is a real possibility, then chaos and uncertainty will rule the day.
I actually served my country during the Vietnam war. I could easily have gotten out on a medical deferral, but I choose to not let the army know, so I could give back to the country that I loved.
Actions speak louder than words. I will short the spy next week, not sure when, sorry if I dont post when I do. Raising a 6 year old is hard work for an old man.
Looks likely we keep going up into early next week.
Not sure what news would take this market down.
Weekly LEI are going higher quickly, which means the economy should do well for the next 6 months.
Politics are irrelevant to this board, all I am saying is if Trump loses and then tries to steal the election, it will lead to chaos and a major market correction.
Hyperbole does not help any cause.
What is very strange, is how stocks are flying higher, very overbought on price, but the a/d numbers are actually very oversold.
Never have seen this in 35 years of watching the markets. Does it mean we can go a lot higher after a bit of sideways action next week, or are we at an important top?
Fed is going to prop up the markets at least until the election, that is for sure.
The RSI for the highs of the day on my spreadsheat hit 83 for the spx.
Have only seen higher values 6 times in the past 33 years.
IN the past, this led to a 10% or bigger decline.
Maybe we are at an important high?
Not sure why you are so certian we are at a top?
I am waiting for next week to short the spy again.
Looking like up into sometime next week, and how much higher is unclear, then a big drop into October. Maybe 10 or even 15%, depending on news.
Get ready to buy that dip for a big move into next year, unless trump steals the election after losing, when chaos will erupt.
Fires keeping my busy, along with no school, sorry did not post earlier.
Covered my 50% short the spy at 341.6,bought nvda at 505 and amd at 83, also mu at 42.9
Am 50% long with those three, still 200% short spy. Probably should have stayed 250% short, but am convinced that the worst that happens is the spy drops 5 to 8% in the next 2 months, and the tech stocks keep rallying.
bottom line: Market wants to keep going up, and it probably will into middle of next week, before we finally get the correction. Due to fed and economy doing well, market has only begun its bull run. I would only be worried if Trump tries to steal the election after he loses, it will be a total mess if he does.
I can not understand how the market can be up today. This tells me something big is about to happen, down or up?
Is the market right, that the economy is going to continue growing rapidly for the next 6 months, without the smallest pullback?
Maybe
Vix is bullish, but if it jumps at all up, then it gives a sell signal. So market can not tolerate even a 2 to 3% decline without serious technical affect.
Thanks for update on turn date. NYAD numbers last 4 days suggest a major top is in place, with a 5 to 8% correction soon.
This is options expiration week, which is usually bullish into the end of the week. If we drop next 3 days, that is very bearish for next week.
NYAD a/d numbers have been very weak this past week, bearish. Can continue for a long time, but longer it does, bigger and faster will be the correction.
I cant find that information, was going by other cycle work.
Insane that with the stim bill on hold, maybe for a long time, the market is up stron anyway!
New moon tonight,market often tops on the new moon. Would not go out and sell the farm and use the money to short the market on that piece of information!
Market often a bit crazy on full moons, otherwise not that reliable an indicator.
No stimulus bill possible,but market does not care
looked at some cycle work, and it predicts Sept 7th as a top, with Oct 15 as a bottom. Makes sense.
How much higher do we go the next 3 weeks? 3600 on spx is a logical target.
I suspect any correction the next 3 weeks will be short and not very big,maybe 2 or 3% at the most.
Support at 3360,3330, 3300. I do not expect any drop the next 3 weeks to go below 3300
Market looks like it will never go down, with Fed pumping massive liquidity and the congress will eventually pass a huge stimulative bill.
Market correctly in Dec 2018 bottomed just as the government shut down for 5 weeks. It correctly assumed eventually there would be a deal, and the pent up demand would correct the short term negatives.
Same today, market is not worried about impasse in congress, and they assume the money will be retroactive.
Bullish: all the moving averages are in solid uptrends, and shorter ones all above the next longer one.
Vix is making new lows for the rally since march, very bullish.
Bearish: super low options numbers, showing too much complacency, and the a/d numbers are not super strong lately, market very overbought but that can last for a long long time.
Bottom line: At what point do the bears like me just give in and cover for a big loss?
i expect a mini crash soon, maybe down 5% in an hour, or overnight.
No stimulus bill very bad for economy, election worries, and China news all could send stocks plumetting like it did silver earlier this week.
Have seen this too many times, like in 1987, 1997, 2007, 2010, 2018, 2019, and this year, where too much euphoria and ignoring bad news turns out to be the wrong side of the trade.
My Uncle expects a recession next year, will not get one this year as need 2 quarters at negative, only got the second quarter.
Too much debt will hurt eventually, only when economy slows down enough.
Precious metals are only sure thing going up next year.
Markets are manipulated? NO way, next you will tell me there is no Santa Claus!
I plan to buy some slv in the next couple weeks. It did drop to 22 last night, and 23.1 could be the best level to buy at.