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I'm riding VXX out. I can't ignore the massive OI in the weekly 13 puts. Nor can I ignore the fact that on any given day, VXX can give back all its gain previous + some more. With that in mind, I think the VXX can swing 200 points the opposite way on strong Euro news OR U.S news OR strong AAPL earnings (would yield a 100 point swing down).
VXX will close the gap to 13 as early as tomorrow IMO. If AAPL earnings beat and carry the market at open on Wednesday, we could see VXX hit 12 or below IMO.
To me, AAPL clearly beats after the bell tomorrow. I'm going to load the boat on VXX puts at the end of today and probably hold into Wednesday morning. VXX should give all its gains back PLUS lose a lot more value due to AAPL's beat on Wednesday.
VRNG is going to be green on Monday btw. This effort to massively short sell this stock stems from the options expiration today IMO. There's a ton of OI on deep ITM puts and I think once we get around that barrier, it's blast off time for this stock.
And even if strong short pressure remains, all it will take is one strong PR to send this stock flying. The valuation of this company, along with the short-squeeze that would take place, makes this a powder keg waiting to explode. I'm banking on it happening sooner rather than later, but this is JMO.
Why are you so obsessed with Rainmaker? Lol
I think we will see a large move starting within the next week or two. I have a feeling VRNG is sitting on a pile of news that could instantly send this stock flying. Acquisitions, Form 4 filings, Buyout tender offers, SETTLEMENT. Based on the speed in which this company is moving, I am moving my timeline up and I've added some AUG $5 calls. At worst, VRNG puts out strong news unrelated to the litigation and this moves about $4. At best, they have already settled with Google and are awaiting to announce the terms.
In AAPL 605c @ 2.64. Looks like a wedge is forming and I think this will be pinned at 610. I will sell if it breaks below 606.9.
I'm watching it, trying to determine which way it will peg (605 or 610).
I'm hoping 610 and I hope it hovers around 606 until power hour. I want max theta burn before I jump in! My thinking is that people will load AAPL in case they break news regarding iPhone 5, iPad mini, earnings leak, or general positive market sentiment.
Then again, the market acts weird so we could definitely sell off too.
I think AAPL bounces later in the day - I'll be looking for an entry point as we draw to power hour. If AAPl spikes now, though, you're golden!
Where will AAPL peg today? 605 or 610?!
I think 610 on a late day rally. I will be picking up 605 calls at 2:45pm CST if the trend remains low to my perceived time period.
Out GOOG 610 puts @ 2.2 from 1.6
GOOG bouncing in 609.9-612 range right now. It's tested both areas multiple times and can't get above/below either side. If it breaks south, I expect 605 to come imminently. Still in on my GOOG puts.
I think GOOG fades back to 605 before power hour. It's having trouble taking it to the next level (615)
In 610w puts @ 1.6 (a bit high but I think I can double easily)
I think both reporting strong results would provide a green day tomorrow. If GOOG misses and MSFT exceeds expectations, I expect red tomorrow. If they both miss, watch out.
So naturally, you should probably go against my logic and you will likely profit lol. Come on GOOG, show us a bad ER!
I'm in some AAPL 610w puts as an extension to GOOG's soft earnings report tonight.
That, and I think AAPL hit a double top today and will drift lower in power hour. Google will lead the markets tomorrow, just as IBM/EBay's strong reports did today.
Actually, it might be easier to play AAPL puts right before the bell because they won't get killed on time decay tomorrow.
I'm thinking that is the way to go for GOOG's earnings tomorrow. I think AAPL will pin @ 610 tomorrow but I could definitely see it open at 605 on a GOOG miss.
I just don't think GOOG is going to beat the street. And if they don't, the stock will tank to 550 I expect. I'll be looking to buy some puts right before the bell.
AAPL 620 calls tomorrow - what does everyone think? Too much OTM?
So with all of these strong earnings, would they be negated with negative U.S numbers in the morning? I say yes, but I've been wrong twice today lol.
Man this market is hard to trade...
My patience is paying off :)
Wasn't looking for a quick flip on these SPY puts. Unless IBM and Ebay smoke earnings AND we see positive economic news tomorrow, I think we will see a red day to correct from today's gains. JMO
SPY is either going to double top at 137.42 and break through in the last 10 minutes or it will sell off IMO. I don't think ERs will navigate the market tomorrow - looks like wishy-washy economic data could push us red tomorrow. I think I will hold my SPY puts overnight (sold a few and reloaded) and look to sell the rest if/when this dips until 137 tomorrow.
I'm going against the grain and I'm saying that EBAY misses or guides lower. It's been my experience that large volume hits OTM are hedges against current plays. Ebay fell for most of the last month and I think people are simply hedging.
With that being said, I do not own buys or puts for EBay's earnings and the above statements are JMO. Trade accordingly :)
I've got 125 136w puts @ .23. GLTU
How many SPY puts are you in for? I agree that a selloff into EOD seems likely, although this market is good for a (bad) surprise or two.
I bought some SPY puts earlier, hoping to ride these to a double tomorrow.
You don't view this as short covering? I'm seeing small sales and then large coverings on my L2. Sure, retail traders could be selling in fear of post-merger madness. This could also be a final attempt to shake weak hands before the news.
Or do you see it differently? I know you're out on the stock, but are you also out on the options? I'm out of my VRNG stock but I'm still holding my options. I just don't think I can bear to be out of this - if I were to miss the settlement while I waited for the price to normalize, I could miss catastrophic gains. JMO.
Also, I just want to add that I think there's actually a possibility that our PPS rises after the merger is finalized. We don't know the value of I/P's patent folder and we've been in a new blackout for so long. Combined that with the ambiguity of the final O/S and I think we could be looking at the same PPS (with higher O/S, so therefore higher valuation).
Let's not also forget that I/P came to Vringo and wanted to merge. They are assuming control of the company and I don't think they would throw their hat into the AMEX ring if they would have to initially complete a R/S. My guess is that, at worst, the merger has already been priced in and we see a slight PPS drop (but not below $3). From there, I think we can easily obtain a $500-750 million settlement with .5-1% royalty for the duration of the patent. This would give us a PPS in the $15-20 range (after multiple)
Rain, you were holding VRNG options too. Did you sell those as well? I think any decrease in PPS will be eaten up by the positive news that comes after. To me, not being in is more scary than a potential PPS drop after the initial merger is complete. Any settlement in the $500 million range will send this stock to $10+ (excluding a potential multiple of that settlement).
I'm going all out on these AAPL calls. There's a gap to 608 still IMO that will be filled. After that, we could hit 610 or just stay at 608. I'm ok with 608 :)
That's where I bought back in!
I'm riding this out - I expect to smash through 606.5 in approx 15 minutes and ascend toward 610.
Filled Buy to Open 11 AAPL Jul 13 2012 605.0 Call Limit 1.08 -- -- 14:39:20 07/13/12
I'm out real quick for a slight loss. Gonna wait until power hour - looks like it's going to churn 605 and then choose its route.
I'm in AAPL 605 calls @ 1.20.
Filled Buy to Open 12 AAPL Jul 13 2012 605.0 Call Limit 1.20 -- -- 14:06:57 07/13/12
Now I'm getting the ascending triangle look from AAPL on the intraday chart. Both good signs for 610 this afternoon. I'm probably going to take a position around 1:45pm CST.
AAPL inverse head and shoulders? Thinking of adding here. Any pop above 606.5 and this is gone to 610 imo. Power hour?
Want to maximize theta decay, though. Come on cheapies!
AAPL looks kind of toppy. It looks like there could be a potential sell off in power hour but I'm still leaning toward a 610 peg. I'll be watching closely to jump in at power hour!
I think JPM dropping lower is good thing in power hour. Shorts pushing it lower to cover...spike tomorrow morning?
JPM 37w calls originally .05x.06 when I entered
Now .08x.10
If JPM hits 40 tomorrow, I'm leaving work early to party!
Plus, I'm due to hit one of these ERs! I've missed the last few lottos that I've tried so fingers crossed!
JPM continuing to rise - expecting a 35 close at this rate. It would fall in line with a rallying market.
meh, I only dropped $250 into the JPM calls. They have a history of beating the estimate, though, so I think that trend will continue (despite the huge loss they are fighting)