Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
LMB ($35.00) It had to hit $35 just to make us all sick. If it got back down to the mid 20's I'd probably be a buyer again. Really do like the business model.
BDCO - CEO continuing to buy, and a meaningful amount, even at around $4. About 30,000 shares. Nothing's for sure, but sort of lends credence to the idea that he's playing the energy market a little. Problem is, HE knows when the good quarters and bad quarters are going to come, and we (the average shareholders) don't. Still, pretty impressive buying:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793306/000165495423011062/xslF345X05/section16.xml
UUU ($2.38) - Another quick plunge and recovery this morning. Down to $2.15 for a few minutes.
Article on home insurance in FL and CA maybe affecting the housing market eventually:
https://archive.is/oEhl0
BDCO - Inventory jumped out at me a little bit. I wonder if CEO is playing the energy markets a little (in a good way, but in a way that amplifies the quarterly ups and downs even more). Most of their products have a long shelf life, so why sell when prices are horrible? For the longest time they had $19m in inventory. When prices got good, last Q inventory went down to $8.6m.
This quarter inventory is at $31m. Maybe withholding some for better days.
haha, larry, pretty good! I think that explains it!
UUU - Agreed. The plunge definitely seems a little harsh. Tough to make sense of market reactions sometimes. A lot of times lately I find myself saying, "I don't get it."
Actually, we're on exactly the same page re PRPH. Sarcasm doesn't always come thru well on the internet. Like if I said, "Bernie Madoff, a man who produced generally consistent returns" . . . That's what I was getting at. The genomics tests were supposed to be in stores second half of last year. Hasn't happened. Supposedly a huge business that right now he could sell for hundreds of millions . . . I've seen no proof of that. Now he's got like 3 businesses that he thinks each might be worth hundreds of millions. That's just a claim, I see no evidence for such optimism. Huge losses last quarter and burned a lot of cash. If I believed any of his claims were true, I might be a buyer. But seems way too promotional . . . maybe he's just a generally optimistic person :)
I'm open to changing my mind if I start seeing some proof. But I've seen none yet.
"in case it apeshits again" lol, I like that!
PRPH ($5.67) - Any interest at these levels as these guys try to move on from covid testing? They now describe themselves as "a next-generation biotech, genomics and diagnostics company." Which, frankly, sounds a little "kitchen sinky" to me. Ceo has had a good history, is generally optimistic, and has pivoted successfully before. But I'm leery that he might be over his head in biotech and genomics. He keeps talking about big things from genomics testing, but dates keep getting pushed back and not seeing much yet.
I like where the stock price has come down to, and if I believed the genomics testing was just a matter of time (as the CEO does) I'd be tempted. But I'm concerned that not only is he over his skis, but also these things might take much more govt approval time and testing than he realizes.
SIGA - the swift plunge continues today. Still doesn't make sense to me and the volume isn't huge. But the one thing I hadn't noticed is short squeeze shows 11.42% of the shares short. Anything near 10% tends to concern me. Short aren't always right, but they're worth noticing. Anyone aware of the short sellers' arguments?
SIGA Yeah I bought a few a little higher than you, in the 4.80s. One would like to think the selling will end at some point. It's been a pretty sharp plunge
BDCO - Yeah the lack of a PR adds to my queasy feeling about mgt. Crow very loudly when results are good, and then don't say anything when results are bad. I don't understand why CEOs act that way. Do they really think they're going to fool investors? Would you want a business partner who's always going to say things are better than they are and then hide the problems from you? It's so silly and childish. People want someone who is trustworthy. Just give it to us straight.
I can maybe understand the need to be silent when all the loans were in default and you're trying to work things out with everyone. But once you got the forbearance agreement and all parties were on board, then there's really no excuse for not being open,honest, and communicative with shareholders, and consistent in the way you report.
BDCO - reports loss of (.10) for the quarter. Will be interesting to see where it trades tomorrow. Seemed like it wouldn't be a great quarter as refining margins had come way down, but traders had sure bid it up in this hot market:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793306/000165495423010790/bdco_10q.htm
Worth a read. Canada's been offering "variable-rate, fixed-payment mortgages" where the negative amortization, as rates move up, just gets tacked onto the loan amount . . . all the way to infinity. I'd have to guess the average, non-financial person who just wants to buy a home has no clue of the risks. Appalling:
https://archive.ph/Ig4kc
That's almost the same way I used to do reverse mergers. Usually you'd get a pop the day of the announcement, first half hour to hour was most of the action. But similarly, not ones to hang on to.
Congrats, indeed! Keeping kids from becoming card-carrying communists is about all one can hope for these days! lol
Seems like a good approach. Plus, that way you get the results pretty quickly -- either good or bad.
FWIW I've also had some decent luck with companies announcing they're coming OUT of BK. Much of the debt gets wiped away, but the first months or years can be kind of rough because the old lenders will sometime take stock (no other choice) at the bk settlement, so they're big sellers for awhile.
Do you tend to focus on the stocks that are hinting of bk or restructuring? In other words, as they're going in, rather than as they're coming out? Just curious what has worked for you.
Same here. Used to play reverse mergers a little. They didn't all work out, and sometimes had to wait years and years for the ones that did. So long as the good outweighed the bad, I was happy.
Thanks! Give me some to look at. Warrants and Unique Situations. Gotta go with what works and what's available. Thx again, Ernie
Yeah, agreed. Not much that's appealing. Please feel free to post the BK announcers you like on this board too. (I don't think it needs another board)
LMB ($32.20) Reports Q2 earnings of .46 vs .08 and totally blew away estimates. (I bought around $11 and sold in the mid $16's, oops.) Cash building, debt going down, increasing guidance. I'm now starting to think this might be a $70 to $80 stock in a few years.
I always very much liked to change in business strategy from just being a general contractor for HVAC, putting in bids all across the country . . . . to focusing on owner direct relationships on mission critical systems specifically in 2nd and 3rd tier cities east of the Mississippi. Focused, and much more integrated into the building owners' plans for the future, maintenance, advising on cost-saving opportunities, upgrading equipment, etc. Much better business.
What I missed was incredibly simple: very low outstanding shares, and how much earnings could be affected by a smallish dollar amount improvement in results.
Company only had 11m shares outstanding (with a few acquisitions etc, it'll probably be closer to 12m soon). So every $1 million dollar bottom line improvement is $.08 to $.09 in additional earnings. This is a business that does almost $500m in annual revenue. If they can improve gross margin percentage just slightly on such a big top-line number, it makes a huge difference on EPS. Drop just an additional, say, $4 million to the bottom line via margin improvements, that's like $.32 to $.36 improvement in earnings.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606163/000162828023028584/a2023630ex991pr.htm
SEAC - Yeah, another Singer special. Never could figure out their m.o., but the result always seems to be the same for shareholders
PYPL - Any concerns about Elon taking market share? He's been pretty open about the fact that he wants to make Twitter (now X) the sort of "everything" app, especially for payments. Since he was involved in the origination of paypal, I'm guessing he must see some things he thinks he can do better. Doesn't mean he's correct, but certainly seems like he'll be trying.
SRTS - I'm still not happy with the explanation of how sales just tanked like 60-70% because dermatologists' customers just weren't coming in. I don't know, that still doesn't pass the smell test for me. All people with aesthetic procedures and skin cancer just collectively decided to stop coming in during the same quarter? Granted that was when a lot of the inflation craziness was going on. I guess anything is possible, but still doesn't quite jibe with me. Company was caught totally off guard by that (why? how?), and if I recall correctly, they were buying back stock at around $7-9 per share. I also don't like that they're now using headlines comparing earnings sequentially instead of y-o-y, which is what they've always done. I never like to see a change in the reporting manner just so they can make the numbers look better than they really are.
This quarter revs were $4.5m, which is up 33% sequentially from last Q, but down from $12.1m a year ago. That's a massive, massive yoy decline. Why no talk of returning to that level of revenue? Shipped 13 systems this Q vs 10 in the prior Q, but down from 33 in the prior-year quarter. Again, just a massive decline. Ceo is now hoping for 60 systems shipped for the year.
So I guess this is just a new, lower level from which things might grow a little bit each quarter? We're just supposed to accept that?
Q4 of 2022 revs were $13.1m vs $13 in prior year. So no growth but no sign of any huge trouble either. And then out of nowhere in Q1 of 2023 revs down to $3.4m vs $10.3 in prior year. Just quick math in your head, that's nearly 70% down in one quarter? Really? Anything's possible, but that's pretty weird.
I went back and looked at 10-Q from last quarter and I had missed how dependent they are on one customer. They also had a loan arrangement with Silicon Valley Bank (which had some odd practices and collapsed in Q1 of 2023) There was talk of some revenue washing schemes with SVB and high tech companies had to leave ALL of their huge cash balances with SVB. I doubt we'll ever know what happened there, but a bit odd for a little company in Boca to have a relationship with Silicon Valley Bank rather than someone local
Again, it could all be exactly as they say. But the whole scenario seems a little odd. Seems like the company is encouraging investors to believe the old revenue numbers are a thing of the past.
More perspective -- I recently had a credit card cut my credit line by $10,000 (a Citi card). Got a letter via snail mail letting me know it had happened (past tense). Never had that happen before in my life, not even in 2008. It is my oldest credit card. I have an almost perfect credit score. I'd heard banks are tightening on credit and lending, but still found it surprising.
I thought this was an interesting read also on market perspective. Not an agree or disagree thing, just perspective:
https://stjic.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/STJIC-Adviser-Letter-2023-Q2-Final-3.pdf
Nah, no worries otc. I'm kind of just surprised at myself. I get a little annoyed when I send somebody an email or text with all the info about something, and then they either haven't read it, or they stopped reading after the first sentence.
And now here I've found myself doing the same thing a couple of times recently. So it's a reminder to myself to slow down and read and comprehend
Ha! You're right, my bad. Sheesh, the short attention span of the internet is affecting me more everyday. I read hweb's initial post about FORD and stopped reading after the first sentence. I know better, too, because I know F is the symbol for Ford Motor Co.
Apologies to all for my error
Yeah, I got the joke. But in this case reality is even more interesting. His grandfather was one of Henry Ford's early employees, and Dad owned an oil company:
https://www.zenger.news/2023/01/09/god-we-were-lucky-ford-ceo-shares-family-tidbit-about-chris-farley-and-tommy-boy/
(Okay, that's my final post on Farley and Ford. Jim Farley is an auto industry veteran and more power to him.)
Interesting, didn't know that.
FORD - I still have a tough time with the concept of Chris Farley's cousin being the CEO of Ford. He seems very qualified and so forth, and it's totally a "me" problem, but it just seems so odd
BUKS - Smallcaps always have certain risks and only so many employees, so everyone is sort of a key employee. But still, this line from the 10-K sort of stood out to me:
BUKS - 10K is out. Earned .06 vs .14 last year. Haven't read it closely yet, but those are the bottom line numbers:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/15847/000143774923021098/buks20230430_10k.htm
BUKS - Co. just did a press release announcing the separation. I think that's the first press release about this, up till now all done by 8-K's. It even contains the typical "we thank them for their service":
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/butler-national-signs-separation-agreement-172500894.html
BUKS - Yeah, and if any of you really big dollar investors wanted to buy a big position here, you might contact the company and let them know you'd be willing to buy the Stewarts' remaining shares if they want to sell. I think the Stewarts had close to 8m in total and they might be open to selling their remaining shares, as they might want a clean, total break from the company, and just be on their way.
BUKS - I'd like to think this is going to be positive, but who knows. At least it will be a clean split with the Stewarts no longer on the Board.
"Omit Needless Clicks/Taps" That is a mantra I would suggest you keep in mind for any UX design. Clicks are now changing to taps as we move more toward screen tapping, but the idea is still the same.
Specifically, I'm liking the new Full View from what I've seen so far, but when I tap on Reply (I'm on a laptop with a mousepad) it opens up the right frame with a Reply box, but the cursor is not already in the Reply box. It should be. As it is now, the user has to click or tap again just to get the cursor in the reply box so he can start typing. That is a needless click/tap.
Yep, doesn't show up on my charts either.
I have gotten a few of those in the past where it does show on the charts and it looks like a toothpick you'd plunge into a triple-decker club sandwich. :)
Congrats again.