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A lot will depend on whether we get a deal and panels out the factory door before something else captures the solar industry's imagination. AS most of us have said for several years, sales and product placement is the only thing that will jump start the SP beyond $2.00. However when it does start it might be a fun ride.
I think we're closer to actual commercialization so don't see the need to clog things up with another partner. The real issue is getting NREL to increase the efficiency of the product to more than 17%. The NREL website doesn't mention Natcore in any of their recent press releases and don't even mention them as a partner in ongoing development. However they have a financial interest in making Natcore's Bsi a success so I expect them to do what it takes to achieve that milestone. Given past experience with them, I don't expect any news for another few months. Hope I'm wrong but the new AR box will probably be ready before any increase in the efficiencies.
And your rude and baseless rants aren't crap?
Sounds to me that you want us all to sell so you can scoop it up at a bargain. Naysayers rule the day but once the GOP gets off their collective butts and realize they really have no choice, the economy will pick up and you won't ever see the SP below a buck.
Admittedly a gamble but so are most things in life.
As an aside there are TRILLIONS in cash in banks and companies waiting for this to happen. Once that cash hits the street there will be a very fast (and maybe short lived) explosion of "bargain buying". The timing will be critical but if, as some predict, it will happen in the second half of 2013 that will coincide with really positive news for Natcore and the SP should take off in "hodge like" fashion.
If I was into conspiracy theories I would suggest the big boys have been playing us all along and are using the staged drama of the "fiscal cliff" to get prices even lower so they can make staggering profits and control entire sectors of the economy. Sounds like a good story line. JMHO.
The JV wasn't for Bsi so he can tell them to take a flyin' leap. It always bothered me that there was a possibility of stealing the technology and screwing the company. Now he and Natcore can call their own shots on who builds what and keep the profits!
I think the parent company is still in business in Italy. They stopped production in the U.S. because of so many cheap cells from China. The U.S. company might be a good place to try the AR box because the line has shut down and they can install the box with no disruption to an existing facility.
Probably Tetrasun and MX solar. They announced R&D agreements with Natcore earlier this year.
Good news! The commissioning of a second AR box is just the beginning. Once manufacturers realize this isn't a flash in the pan they will line up to get one. More improvements and tandem cells will keep Natcore in the forefront of the solar cell business.
Lots of possible reasons but in IMO due to Fiscal cliff fears and taking a capital gain before any changes to the tax laws. Maybe some patience wearing thin on waiting for "big news". As some have said, a buying opportunity if you want to gamble on a deal being reached with Congress before year end.
Two things. 1. Natcore never hits their time lines. 2.There is always some kind of progress.
It took them a long time to get the NREL deal but they got it. It took a long time to make the first black silicon wafer and achieve commercialization. I fully expect it will take more time to get the efficiencies up to spec and then a long time to get it into mass production. Don't believe any of the timeline prognostications offered by Provimi....but don't give up on the company.
On a more positive note, the problems encountered with the start up of BSi should assist them when they want to introduce a viable tandem cell. Presumably NREL will be on board, the AR machine in the lab will be fine tuned to speed up the manufacturing process and by that time customers will be on board and ready to buy Bsi 2.0
Natcore has to weather the next year and get some cash flow but things might accelerate once that has been accomplished.
Fiscal cliff effect or is something in the wind?
Natcore was probably aware of the research a long time ago. The article doesn't talk about manufacturing processes or cost. The company has repeatedly said that there are new developments every day but the trick is getting it into a commercial form and to market before anyone else. Natcore is much closer to that goal than anyone else....that we know of.
The tandem cell would be a close competitor and is already being looked at for commercialization. The process should be expedited compared to the original cell as we now know how to do it. Flood and Barron have promised a working prototype by 2013 and it might see the market in 2014.
Not certain how that will affect the JV with China. However reduced sales of traditional panels should help market the Bsi we are developing. Now if we could only get a large NA manufacturer on board and get some contracts signed the SP would really take off.
I always thought it strange (in a good way) that the President would reply to any message board. I think he is really busy now and doesn't have the time to address our uninformed concerns. I also agree he may be leery of any news posted here that could cause the stock to move one way or another and trigger some kind of investigation. Let him focus on the task at hand. I suspect there will be more PR's in the coming months that should answer a lot of our questions.
The R2R venture is dependent on Kodak getting its house in order and that seems unlikely to happen for some time. A black tandem cell is sexier than R2R and now that they have the commercialization process almost complete might be able to speed up its entry into the market place. By "speed up" I mean sometime in 2015. They need to get the Bsi up and running and establish a customer base and then they can work on the tandem cell; although periodic news about its progress will help to solidify a higher SP.
You and Teq are both right. Frustratingly slow pace of development but progress is being made. I've been patient this long so I guess another 6-12 months (pure guess) for the big payoff will be worth it.
I hope the President's letter due before the end of the year will fill in some of the holes on "commercialization". It seems like there is one step after another before the black cell actually hits the market.Is NXT is letting the NREL take control of the process? What about the R&D agreements with companies like MX Solar? When will we actually see a contract and revenue?
I was surprised to read that the corporate plan is to pump most of their revenue from MX solar back into research. Did they mean only revenue from that JV or was it intended to cover all revenue from all sources? If they could generate hundreds of millions of dollars in sales and licensing fees there would be no point in reinvesting all of it in R&D. I can understand putting the first few million back in, but all of it? What am I missing?
Old news. Natcore has been in discussions with Kodak about roll to roll solar cells for about two years. Kodak's financial problems need to be resolved before they can consider any kind of a jv with Natcore.
Information from Provimi or wishful thinking?
I agree with the tenor of your comments but not to the same degree. Natcore has a licensing agreement with NREL and a failure to deliver on black silicon would be a death blow to the company. While I can agree with you on being careful of the hype from a research firm there are so many other parties involved that are experts in the field that it is difficult to imagine they are all being deceived by management. I suspect that there are a lot of unforeseen bugs to be worked out with this new and "game changing" process which has resulted in a (very) lengthy delay in getting the process to market. I also think the new hire is as much about letting Flood and Barron get back to research as it is about their inability to obtain commercialization. However the product works and that says a lot. Commercial success is always difficult with a completely new method of production. That being said, SOME tangible progress (and hopefully a contract or two) must be announced before the end of the year or we are all in for a rough time.
The delay in submitting the President's letter could be due to a number of factors, some good and some poor. They might want to wait until they achieve commercialization and give us all some good news; or they have some problems that are proving difficult to solve and don't want to annoy the shareholders with more spin about "it's around the corner blah blah blah.
The most recent hire was supposed to assist in making the AR box completely automatic and any significant changes to the system could take a lot of time.
The upside is that two independent analysts have both said commercialization should happen by year's end. We can only hope that they have done their due diligence in researching the process and are confident in that assessment.
A lot will depend on the President's letter due sometime this month. If it is very positive, along the lines of confirming they have reached commercialization of black silicon, the SP should make a significant jump. Anything less than that kind of statement will not bode well for the SP. JMHO.
We all hope that the new letter has some real substance and not more of "we are weeks away from realizing our potential yadda yadda yadda". I would rather wait for a PR announcing commercialization with actual results than get more hype.
I think you are correct in the assumption that a trade show isn't usually used for any big announcement when the news can get out faster via the internet. I was just looking at the timing and the suggestion by others on the site that we should expect sales and contracts "sometime in the fourth quarter". Perhaps an announcement just before the conference to whip up investor confidence? TWT
Given that Lundin is a founding member of the conference and "Hadji" will make an appearance, something might be in the works. The timing seems right for either announcing contracts and sales of the AR box, or at the very least a much clearer picture of exactly when the process will be "commercialized". Either way there should be a nice bounce in the SP.
I agree with a lot of your comments. However I was of the belief that the AR box could be "dropped" into an existing production line with little or no modifications required. I agree that the change over to another manufacturing system can be time consuming but I think that's why it is taking so long to announce "commercialization". Once the entire black Si panel is ready for the manufacturing process, it shouldn't take another year to have some company put it into production; especially if they already have an AR box in place. I won't be surprised if we hear about the first step before the end of the year with sales of the boxes and chemicals following on the heels of the announcement. Don't forget that Natcore is NOT a manufacturer. It's goal is to get the product ready to be used by the manufacturers, not sales to consumers.
A lot can happen between now and next Thanksgiving. The first step is commercialization. Once Natcore achieves that goal the SP will move up in a meaningful way but I doubt it will go over $3 or $4 (still a real bad guesstimate)until we get cash rolling in and more contracts are signed. No idea of when that might happen but we all hope it's by at least the middle of next year.
A major issue will be getting the price over $5 for an extended period of time so Natcore can list on Nasdaq. Provimi said in an earlier interview that there was a lot of interest from institutional investors but regulations prevent them from investing in a "pink sheets" company. However once listed the stock will receive a lot more coverage and then it should make a big move.
The election and jumping off or forestalling the fiscal cliff will be a significant factor in what happens to Natcore. Another recession would really hurt the company. If the end of the (economic) world is averted (as I expect will happen) it will open up more doors and things should start to roll. My own prediction earlier this year was a SP of $12-$15 by the fourth quarter of 2013. If things go well it might reach that level earlier but I just don't see it going over $20 unless they make another breakthrough or sign some type of mega contract. Either way the future looks bright for the company. GLTA
I interpreted his comments as it will probably dip below $1.10 before any big news but if it holds it's value until the "announcement" it will cost more than $1.10. Caveat emptor in all stock transactions.
Have you factored any good news into your theory? If (and it is a big if) Natcore announces commercialization of the absolute black solar cells in the next few months, the stock will move upward in a very positive way.
Agreed. I think the real deadline is tied in with the NREL agreement for commercialization. I thought that was August but it might be in the fourth quarter. If the company is still putting out spin instead of sales by the end of the year the company will be in a whole lot of trouble; as will the shareholders. I think I'll sign off this message board until the end of the summer. Talk to you later.
I'm not sure why everyone is excited about the President's message. Absolutely nothing new and in fact the "news" about the depth of the etching is a rehash of an earlier e-mail from 3-4 months ago. That suggests they haven't made any progress on that point. This company is probably the worst I've ever seen in promising the world and failing to deliver at every opportunity.
I understand that this is new technology but the delays are getting VERY stale. I would have sold long ago but I got too wound up in the false hype and overextended myself so I'm committed to either making the promised big bucks or losing my shirt and using the loss to offset my tax liabilities.
It's too bad caveat emptor applies to all stocks and penny stocks in particular because the management has put their neck out a number of times by making promises and then failing to deliver on them.
Very surprising that NO ONE has any information from the AGM; or that Provimi hasn't sent an e-mail to the select few that contact him to alert them to some tidbits from his "letter from the President". I'm not certain that in this case no news is good news.
I hope I'm wrong but the silence is troublesome.
Amen brother. The company has to realize that their constant empty promises have worn thin with the investors. Just sign a contract for SOMETHING and we can relax for a little while.
Gold you're such a tease. BTW do we have to wait 12 -18 months for the "surprise" news?
I've got to agree with you on this one. A lot of the same old spin with unbelievably the same time lines as discussed over the last two years!! I've got too much invested to pull out and try and get back in two years from now but my sale point is much lower than a year ago. I think understand why JB gave up on this stock.
It's way too early to talk about merging those two companies. Let's get the black silicon to market and build some momentum before thinking about a takeover.
Thanks for the information. It's nice to know that management thinks it was a great question and not a waste of time.
I had exactly the same concerns when I read the article. What I am worried about is abandoning the LPD process entirely which would leave Natcore out in the cold; although I thought NREL had tried to achieve passivation on their own and needed LPD to make it work.
It would be very helpful if someone could contact Chuck and have him confirm Natcore's role in the process used by NREL and what it means for the company.
Generating losses this year could mean a lot of things, not all of which are bad i.e.increased capital expenditures to the existing facilities, seed capital for the new company to house and sell chemicals, more staff to handle increased demand etc. The bottom line stills takes a hit but IF the company starts to generate revenue by the end of the year it will signal a dramatic shift in the operations and SP.