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RtoR, Like your thinking with two exceptions. I do think anyone investing at today's price is going to get a good return and fairly quickly as it is just too cheap to stay here. That said, the rest of the financing has to go at least good. Fantastic in this market would be wonderful! Personally I think your guestimate has one correct number in it. I will say 350K for my guess and hope like hell that you are the one who is right.
JMHO FWIW
If you like the same 'ol same 'ol then you are probably gonna like the next nine holes....
UBS out with comments this morning saying gold's weakness is liquidity driven and see gold above $2,000 in the near future. In same article Marc Faber says he wouldn't be surprised to see a gold bottom in the $1100-$1200(40% correction)range.
The whale gulps....
You are right on about CD and his abilites in my book. He is one of the main reasons to be here in my mind. That being said, because I have no experience in this junior arena, I am constantly trying to value it and to figure out how it will come down. Talking out loud will, hopefully, help me gain some insight from those who know.
I did not mean to infer that buyout talk was what is going on because nothing could be farther from the truth. This is definitely going to at least start as a JV and we have been told there are talks with a potential partner. It is unthinkable to me that at some point in the future this whale won't swallow the fish(TPW) in whole if the fable of gold is proven real and how it comes down only remains to be seen. May be as Destinator suggested the deal comes in tranches(seems fair to both parties). There is much work to be done first. As By stated, there is a poison pill in place so if/when it comes to that the stakeholders will all have a say in if/when buyout happens.
Am in total agreement with you By. MB recently stated a deposit's value could be calculated thusly: 30moz X 1800(or current price) = $54b. Shareholders could see $5.4b(10%) divided by 200m(shares out)=$27ea. It was stated somewhere(MB?) that a stakeholder value had a range of 10%($27 share) to 40%($108 share) depending on infrastructure. Considering the difficulty drill proving ounces in this type deposit and the fact that we will most likely be long gone before the mining is finished(giving a total ounces mined),the question in my mind has been how do stakeholders see anything close to this value? Needless to say, I was very intrigued when Destinator mentioned the tranche idea. Does anyone else have any experience in this kind of situation?
GLTA(I am off to see my psychologist for another greed counseling session).
Yes, you have that right as they are definitely talking major. It is too bad you missed the call cause that is where the 'freudian slip' occured.
GLTA
Chip
I left a couple of clues to help out on that some days back. Hope it helps.
GLTA
Any fears here that the jv is in trouble are, at this point, simply not true(I hear they are happy and excited to participate in this play). CD's priority is to keep two drills turning on TPW. This money is insurance lest the jv negotiations drag out. This deal, like any other, could still go sideways. However, should the deal be finalized, then what cash is not spent on TPW will be used for other properties. Would have been nicer had it been done at a higher price but it is what it is.
In a business where failure is the norm, I would much rather have CD calling the shots rather than one of those sharks/promoters running around out there.
GLTA
Chip
MG, You are thinking of someone else...what I am thinking of is Clifton Star's run from $2.35 to $8.25 when their jv(since failed?) was announced. It is too bad the EXS share price is so low and one can only hope it will have some kind of run before any deal like that might come to fruition.
GLTA
Chip
A couple of clues to "THE" name:
1) On a scale of 1-10, TPW is an "1-1"
2) ?Freudian Slip?
Have fun! GLTA
Chip
Again this is the first junior gold stock I have ever owned and it is turning into a very educational experience. There is much here I don't know and don't care to. The issues you raise, in my mind, go straight to CD. If I was not getting satisfaction from IR then CD would be my next stop. This PR clarity issue is a very salient one and since I have not the experience of other junior gold PRs, I don't know what is missing that would make it better.Also the trading pattern would be a point of interesting discussion. It seems you have definite ideas and I wonder if you have considered a conversation with Chris?
As for what quality info is presented towards potential institutional investors or JV partners-how would one pretty that up? Having said that, getting the model updated is an excellent idea and would definitely make is easier for us to follow along. However, my gut says being that these institutionals are professional mining financiers and/or educated miners/geologists, that they understand the corporate presentation and ongoing drill resultant PRs in a way that I probably never will or they wouldn't get involved in the first place(and we do know they are involved in negotiations).
Like you say, this is an elephant and we all know there aren't many around. Someday, in the not so distant future, this elephant will sport the market cap that it rightfully deserves and the heartburn of this blip in price and unacceptable PRS will be forgotten in the buzz of a champagne(or whatever) high. This is still a ways down the road(barring a direct buyout of TPW or other developements within the company) but I think a new trend is starting now that will begin a long move up. In the mean time don't stop pressing the issues!
JMHO GLTA
Chip
Chip
Peter, If I understand things correctly, the "they" you are referring to is Chris Dupont. He puts out all PR'S for EXS. Gary in IR takes all the phone and email questions WRG to anything Explor. This post makes me feel that there is no understanding of what IR does to earn $6k a month. Not only are there endless phone calls and emails from shareholders and other interested parties that Gary does NOT dodge, but road shows for mining conferences, hard money shows, he sets up and travels to meetings with fund managers and prospective JV partners. He has a six and sometimes seven day work week representing Explor and it's shareholders. There is no way you would catch me biting off a piece of that. As far as twittering and such I don't know, but my money says the IR department of these big companies cost a sight more than $6 grand a month.
I understand the frustrations most of us have with being unable to decipher these PR's and have nothing insightful to offer as a remedy. Someone said we need a better way picture what is being created with our drill program/news releases so that the market and shareholders can have something tangible with which to judge results and I totally agree. Any ideas should be forwarded to IR and perhaps we can help improve the process.
Just my two bits worth.
GLTA
Chip
Peter, Are you buying here??
GLTU
Chip
Sask, I don't know enough on that subject to make an accurate comment. Was talking to someone who is extrememly knowledgable about the mining business(and this company) when I learned this and did not drill down about each type of reserves. The conversation was very fluid with me mostly listening. But the NI statement set me back a little because, to my way of thinking, the NI would be one metric of valuation that would boost share price such as seen with other companies because of course it is a very visible metric. I hope there is room for suprise but am not counting on it any longer.
GLTA
Chip
Great post!!
Chip
Also Hollinger Mcintyre were the same deal. I believe this will be what ultimately happens at TPW-sink a shaft and go after the stacked and layered high grade veins and produce 100k-300k ozs per year. My confidence that we have a monster remains intact and will be proven out. Yes, this will take time...how much I have not the experience to make a WAG. The 800lb gorilla is outside the room trying to get in and if/when he does, the pace of progress will quicken markedly on more that one front. Like you By, I am here for a long,long time and I do expect to make many multiples on my investment. I have not yet found another junior explorer with the quality of portfolio this company has and a man running it with the geological experience of CD. See MiningJunkie's post #2051-I get high when I see a person of expertise in their field of endeavor working when they no longer need to but do it because of the love and passion for what they do.
OK enough ramble for now. This is my humble opinion and may well be worth to you what you paid for it!
GLTA
Chip
Hello By,
At one time I was thinking the same WRT the NI 43-101 resource estimate. However, during some DD, I discovered that this type of deposit does not lend itself to good(read high)numbers of ounces for that report as some other types of deposits do.That was a let down because I had figured given the potential size of this deposit, that a modestly large(even 1MOZ) number would give the share price some zip. Needless to say, I now have serious doubts about that being the case. It is a step in the right direction to be sure and as in lots of cases it gives the market another metric with which to attach a valuation to a company. The main purpose of the NI for us is that funds are extremely hesitant to invest nowadays with out one.
Chip
Hole 47A and hole 47 are one and the same. Don't know why it was tagged as such but it is confusing when this happens for sure. No reason yet for the hold up of W1 and W2.
Chip
Destinator,
Have seen you posting institutional buys /sells previously. Is there anything in this mornings trading to give a clue to this spike action? Was someone somewhere wanting a block regardless the price?? Or was some poor sheep being shorn?
TIA for your opinion on any of the above.
Chip
This may be a translation of our 6/24/11 PR??
Chip
Doug,
We are drilling the South limb because more information was available about compared to the North.
Chris
Destinator,
Would it be possible for you to paraphrase McCoach's review for those of us who don't have access to it?
TIA
Chip
Quan,
The way I look at it is, the fundamentals of this company are improving with every turn of the bit. I am suggesting nothing about the stocks price correlation to fundamentals as they oft times diverge. If I could predict that, I'd be too busy spending my money to chat it up here. That said, this is definitely a weak time of year and market for most metals stocks and as your next post talks about price action in a thinly traded issue such as this, well that don't help neither when the bias is sell, to state the obvious. I will tell you that I have been a buyer nearly every month for nine months and will be for the next three months. I own a buttload and it will be to my benefit or my detriment, but in my view it is way too early to tell. Would I like to have bought all at this level?? Yeah, tho not realistic. The future looks good to me with this stock so I stay and accumulate.
GLTA
Chip
Nasty-I agree even tho there is alot of heartburn right with the share price. This is a tremendous buying oppurtunity for newbies or those wishing to commit new capital.
GLTA
Chip
Go4IT6-your prediction, that the chart of EXSFF would look very different by July, is unfortunately becoming all too true....
GLTA
Chip
Yes is correct as it has been told to me by Gary himself.
GLTA
Chip
Thanks Joe. Please disregard post #1384 as I was having a senior brain fart I guess....
Chip
Thanks Red. EOM
Chip
Joe, please send along the presentation to salsasailor1@yahoo.com.
Thanks,
Chip
Greetings to you as well Steven.
Thanks again,
Chip
Steven,
I tried to email Gary but mujst have something in his email address incorrect. Would you mind posting it so as I can pass along some support?
TIA
Chip
Thanks By. Oh and by the way, nice spike on the 15k @ .78. Gotta be lovin it. I thought we would have a weak week and got left behind on some cheap extra shares.
GLTU
Chip
I didn't see the ad, but googled anyway and looked only for the approximate price and area Destinator posted. The person who reco'ed BRD thought it is a ten bagger within two years so I bought some for diversification...
All those teaser writers must hate Google. Thanks again for the solution to the question.
GLTU
Chip
By jove I think you've hit it. Am curious how you got on to it if you don't mind. I bought some a month ago on a reco and never really looked into their property portfolio. Price doesn't quite match but the properties certainly do.
TIA
Chip
Destinator, FWIW I searched Timmins plays for about an hour yesterday afternoon and came up with none at that price. Closest under $2 was at $1.46.
Chip
Thanks for chiming in. Any particular reason for May 9th?
TIA
Chip
Oh yes imminent may be too strong of a word. We know CD reviews labs before making the release, so next Wednesday or Thursday seems reasonable, given meetings all this week.
JMHO
Chip
Sask,
Guess I need to upgrade here as I am read only-dang. My personal thought is a release is imminent. This AM action is also very interesting.
GLTU
Chip
Hi In XS,
Apologies for the delay in reponse to your post. Working for a living has it downsides...
Since I listen better than I read, it wasn't clear if your issue with my post was my optimism relaying info to the board or with IR itself, or maybe both, so my thoughts on all.
As you said "Let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet. Visually speaking EXS would have already hit the glory hole."
My investment style is proactive. So I am always scanning the horizon for information from any source with which to form opinions and make decisions. Hence I do not consider that getting ahead of anything. I don't exactly understand the next sentence ,but the term 'visually speaking' was my own, simply because the comments emanating from the 50.5 meter core are based only on visual appearence. A segment of a core that is this thick and has caused so much excitement internally, puts me in mind of the 80 meters belonging to Lakeshore. I did have a misquote in parens when referring to what was said about this core. After thinking about it, I recalled that what Gary had actually said was "unfreaking believable".
As you said "Gary told me and many of you that this set of drill results will be the best ever.
Oh sorry he meant the next set."
My belief here is that "best ever' would have held true but something beyond the company's control caused a delay in assay results. Spring time drilling is picking up and the labs are slammed. The plan was to have news before the meetings this next week so we went back to what we had. I personally find Gary at IR to be honest, open and forthcoming in my dealings with him. At any time, should I find him to be less than honest, I would take him to task as I would anyone else.
As you said "Don't get me wrong. I look forward to seeing the story unfold. However we need to stop setting expecations so high that we can't meet expectations". My expectations for this stock are exceedingly high. But whether or not these expectations are met or not, depends not upon anything I or any one of us might say or think, but upon Explor being able to deliver the drill based results to support their statements about the size and type of deposit that they geologically believe this property may host.
As for my 'seminal' events comment. I believe these are upcoming events that anyone with more than a passing interest in this stock could list quite quickly.They are facts. The only thing we don't know is whether they are positives or negatives(I personally believe they will all be positive.Though at least one(Kidd Creek, may be neutral or even negative...
I hope this serves to clarify. As always GLTA!
Chip