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Looks like we may hit my target after all. See Linkback.
Just a few more days and I'll be back full time.
AAPL, see linkback.
USO-See Linkback
Good Afternoon EST, My contract expires on 31 Aug and I have no intention of renewing so that means I'll be back to full time posting on 1 Sept. I miss posting on the hub and staying away has proven much more difficult than I thought.
While I'm still not allowed to post any of my trades in open forum until after 31 Aug, I'd certainly enjoy hearing from some of the long time posters. 1 Sept is still two weeks away and I'd hate for you guys to miss a possible bottom for commodities so at a minimum I'd be willing to discuss my opinion regarding the usual suspects.
For example Oil is very close to my target for a bottom and as many of you know we were looking for a 30 handle when it was over 60. While Nat Gas is taking it's sweet azz time I still expect it to move above $4 and most likely much higher. Metals are also very close to finishing a three year pattern if it's not done already.
If anyone is interested in discussing/sharing information, in a more private setting, I'd certainly be open to that possibility. I understand I've been AWOL for a while now but I've been extremely active and have positioned myself to take advantage of what I think will be the most profitable/tradeable 4 months out of the year. So I'm hoping that at least one of you are willing to run point on this and help the rest of the board out with their take on our private discussion.
I can be reached at SwingTrader@live.com
UGAZ is down 15% from my initial entry and I have no intention of selling. I still think Nat Gas is headed to $5 and if $2.73 is not broken on this try I'll wait to make my third buy at $2.44. If $2,73 is broken there's a very good chance we're headed higher sooner than later.
Instead of trying to go through and doing charts I haven't been keeping up with I'll post updated charts for anyone that ask for them. Like I said I have a few hours in the morning so if anyone ask for something in particular I'll post it.
Let me see if I can do this another way.
I wanted to thank everyone for keeping the board going in my absence. While I don't expect to be able to post on a regular basis until the end of the month I thought it'd be a good idea to let everyone know I'm ok and nothing horrible happened to me.
Some of you may have heard that I took a job as a freelance trader with a commodities firm. I hope you guys understand that this is a golden opportunity that I'm trying to take full advantage of while it's there to take advantage of. It turned out to be just what I needed at this point in my career and I think the experience gained from this position will be a great benifit to the entire EST team.
While it may seem like I've abandoned you guys nothing could be farther from the truth. I'll be back as soon as my schedule and company policy permits. I'll be traveling again in the morning but I'll be home until about 7:45 if you guys have questions I'll do my best to answer what I can.
Im trying to watch as much as I can. Still long oil and nat gas.
Take a look at the DX chart I just posted, negative divergence on the MACD and overbought levels on the RSI are not a good sign for this move to continue. Of course price trumps everything else but again the technicals are forecasting at least a pullback.
Not out of the woods yet, I still believe it's setting up to drop like a rock.
So far so good, setting my stop at my entry and letting it roll. Will be in as soon as possible this morning, good luck until then.
Here's an updated chart with the action since Friday. It danced around the top green box, my first target, and shot up over the weekend. I wasn't here today so I didn't have a chance to update the chart or post new targets but none the less if this is going higher it has to break $97.50 with confidence and even though it exceeded my target it still hasn't invalidated my lower targets. Now without going into a ton of detail unless we blast through $97.50 tomorrow I'm going to be looking for it to continue lower and put in a new low around $92.
You can draw whatever conclusions you'd like regarding how that'll effect oil/nat gas/gold ect but I'm going to update them separately.
US Dollar chart with support. So $97.50 is resistance and we need to break through $96.46-$96.16 to see the lower targets I spoke of.
SPX: I want to keep this as simple as possible because this count is anything but so I chose to use SPX instead of ES. IMO what we're seeing from SPX is only a retrace with higher prices still to come but I'm very much open to this breaking down as well as right now we're kinda in the middle of the two. The optimum place for us to see this retrace bottom is 2093SPX. That is the level I'd expect to see hold if we're going to continue higher. By higher I mean 2155-2175 however if 2093 SPX is broken 2075-2065 then turns into an absolute line in the sand. Meaning if 2075-65SPX is broken it would confirm we have a top in place and I would then start looking for much lower levels. Now I'm sure I'm going to catch hell for this but if we break 2065-75, my target is 1800.
Questions
I want to use the USO chart for oil because it's cleaner and should give everyone a better idea what I'm thinking. I'll give you guys CL targets as well but to illustrate the movement USO is a little better IMO>
The lower low we hit today invalidated the 4th wave triangle so that only leaves two possibilities.
The reason I'm long is because this could be the start of the last leg higher and if it's not I should be able to get out on the wave 2 bounce.
And YES my target for the low is between 12-13. It doesn't matter if we move there from here or from a new high it doesn't change the lowest target.
I think this is pretty clear but let me know if anyone has questions.
I have all of tonight's updates in one post but going to wait for morning to post it in case I can eliminate any possibilities.
Gold needs to bounce off 1183 if we don't already have a bottom. As long as 1168.4 is not broken, the bullish count remains my primary. If 1168.4 is broken by even .01 it invalidates the strongest of the bullish counts and would have me looking at my alternate counts. Best case is 1183 holds and launches us higher in a 3rd wave that is currently targeting 1291-1301. Make no mistake about it, gold does have the potential to gain $100 in no time. It may sound like a lot but in the big picture it's not. I'll be following this closely as well.
I've looked at several different Nat Gas charts and can only assume that the difference was because today was the contract roll. I've never seen that before, while I'm sure it's happens quit a bit I must not have been paying attention. Anyway $2.815 would have been support compared to the $2.785 on the chart I posted. All of the charts should be on the same page by tomorrow.
Many of the "EXPERTS" say the low will be in the 3rd or 4th Q which is the entire second 1/2 of 2015 but once we can confirm we have a high we should be able to narrow that a bit. I understand what Wrinkles is saying about the dollar correlation and that should help us determine when oil and gold will see there lows but regardless of timing we should see some serious movement over the next few months.
Any comments on the USO chart.
No worries, I'm glad you guys value my opinion but EST is all about teamwork. I wish you all the best and I also appreciate the effort I see from everyone else posting their ideas and suggestions. The more eyes we have on the markets the better it is for everyone involved.
I want to use the USO chart for oil because it's cleaner and should give everyone a better idea what I'm thinking. I'll give you guys CL targets as well but to illustrate the movement USO is a little better IMO>
The lower low we hit today invalidated the 4th wave triangle so that only leaves two possibilities.
The reason I'm long is because this could be the start of the last leg higher and if it's not I should be able to get out on the wave 2 bounce.
And YES my target for the low is between 12-13. It doesn't matter if we move there from here or from a new high it doesn't change the lowest target.
I think this is pretty clear but let me know if anyone has questions.
I'm with you, would love nothing more then to see it break and keep going but what I'm really liking here is the confirmation is SOOOOOOOO far from the bottom it's got payday written all over it.
LOL, man we should all have it that easy.
Questions on SPX or VXX?
If VXX is going higher we want to see $18.85 hold
Sure, it's heading higher so they'll say it's going higher until it turns lower.
SPX: I want to keep this as simple as possible because this count is anything but so I chose to use SPX instead of ES. IMO what we're seeing from SPX is only a retrace with higher prices still to come but I'm very much open to this breaking down as well as right now we're kinda in the middle of the two. The optimum place for us to see this retrace bottom is 2093SPX. That is the level I'd expect to see hold if we're going to continue higher. By higher I mean 2155-2175 however if 2093 SPX is broken 2075-2065 then turns into an absolute line in the sand. Meaning if 2075-65SPX is broken it would confirm we have a top in place and I would then start looking for much lower levels. Now I'm sure I'm going to catch hell for this but if we break 2065-75, my target is 1800.
Questions
The chart will be in the oil update. It's up right after SPX
FYI: I'll be consolidating all of my post this evening into one post that I'll make a sticky.
If they're are no questions on the dollar I'm moving forward.
Here's an updated chart with the action since Friday. It danced around the top green box, my first target, and shot up over the weekend. I wasn't here today so I didn't have a chance to update the chart or post new targets but none the less if this is going higher it has to break $97.50 with confidence and even though it exceeded my target it still hasn't invalidated my lower targets. Now without going into a ton of detail unless we blast through $97.50 tomorrow I'm going to be looking for it to continue lower and put in a new low around $92.
You can draw whatever conclusions you'd like regarding how that'll effect oil/nat gas/gold ect but I'm going to update them separately.
Ok, let me post on the dollar first.