Wednesday, May 27, 2015 8:11:27 AM
Here's an updated chart with the action since Friday. It danced around the top green box, my first target, and shot up over the weekend. I wasn't here today so I didn't have a chance to update the chart or post new targets but none the less if this is going higher it has to break $97.50 with confidence and even though it exceeded my target it still hasn't invalidated my lower targets. Now without going into a ton of detail unless we blast through $97.50 tomorrow I'm going to be looking for it to continue lower and put in a new low around $92.
You can draw whatever conclusions you'd like regarding how that'll effect oil/nat gas/gold ect but I'm going to update them separately.
US Dollar chart with support. So $97.50 is resistance and we need to break through $96.46-$96.16 to see the lower targets I spoke of.
SPX: I want to keep this as simple as possible because this count is anything but so I chose to use SPX instead of ES. IMO what we're seeing from SPX is only a retrace with higher prices still to come but I'm very much open to this breaking down as well as right now we're kinda in the middle of the two. The optimum place for us to see this retrace bottom is 2093SPX. That is the level I'd expect to see hold if we're going to continue higher. By higher I mean 2155-2175 however if 2093 SPX is broken 2075-2065 then turns into an absolute line in the sand. Meaning if 2075-65SPX is broken it would confirm we have a top in place and I would then start looking for much lower levels. Now I'm sure I'm going to catch hell for this but if we break 2065-75, my target is 1800.
Questions
I want to use the USO chart for oil because it's cleaner and should give everyone a better idea what I'm thinking. I'll give you guys CL targets as well but to illustrate the movement USO is a little better IMO>
The lower low we hit today invalidated the 4th wave triangle so that only leaves two possibilities.
The reason I'm long is because this could be the start of the last leg higher and if it's not I should be able to get out on the wave 2 bounce.
And YES my target for the low is between 12-13. It doesn't matter if we move there from here or from a new high it doesn't change the lowest target.
I think this is pretty clear but let me know if anyone has questions.
You can draw whatever conclusions you'd like regarding how that'll effect oil/nat gas/gold ect but I'm going to update them separately.
US Dollar chart with support. So $97.50 is resistance and we need to break through $96.46-$96.16 to see the lower targets I spoke of.
SPX: I want to keep this as simple as possible because this count is anything but so I chose to use SPX instead of ES. IMO what we're seeing from SPX is only a retrace with higher prices still to come but I'm very much open to this breaking down as well as right now we're kinda in the middle of the two. The optimum place for us to see this retrace bottom is 2093SPX. That is the level I'd expect to see hold if we're going to continue higher. By higher I mean 2155-2175 however if 2093 SPX is broken 2075-2065 then turns into an absolute line in the sand. Meaning if 2075-65SPX is broken it would confirm we have a top in place and I would then start looking for much lower levels. Now I'm sure I'm going to catch hell for this but if we break 2065-75, my target is 1800.
Questions
I want to use the USO chart for oil because it's cleaner and should give everyone a better idea what I'm thinking. I'll give you guys CL targets as well but to illustrate the movement USO is a little better IMO>
The lower low we hit today invalidated the 4th wave triangle so that only leaves two possibilities.
The reason I'm long is because this could be the start of the last leg higher and if it's not I should be able to get out on the wave 2 bounce.
And YES my target for the low is between 12-13. It doesn't matter if we move there from here or from a new high it doesn't change the lowest target.
I think this is pretty clear but let me know if anyone has questions.
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